Sometimes a MAC team simply outshines all the others and plays on a higher level. They storm through the MAC season undefeated, and end up going to the MAC championship game nationally ranked. They clinch a trip to Detroit before the season is even over.

NIU was that team in 2013, 2012, and 2010. Kent also did it in 2012. CMU in 2009. But that only accounts for half of the division winners in the last five years. In other years, you have cases where no one in the division has a perfect record, and it comes down to the wire in the last week of the season. That's when the tie-breaker procedures come in to play, and you end up with "co-champions", which is just a fancy way of saying first loser. In 2010, Maimio needed Ohio to get upset by an average Kent team to slip in to the MCC.

My point is that while the Huskies may not be steamrolling their way through the MAC and on to Detroit like their last two seasons, they are still control of their destiny. I have not seen any other MAC teams outshining the rest of the conference this year, either, and that includes Toledo. We all know too well that teams that barely sneak in to the MCC can still go home with the trophy.

Quote:My point is that while the Huskies may not be steamrolling their way through the MAC and on to Detroit like their last two seasons, they are still control of their destiny. I have not seen any other MAC teams outshining the rest of the conference this year, either, and that includes Toledo.

Very true -- but it also puts less emphasis, notably this early in conference season, of "control over one's own destiny" for any team. It gives relief for NIU finding their way when stumbling early on, but also the drawback is that there's much less solidity for anyone, including themselves.

3 games in -- 5 to go. I think NIU has the edge, given they play Toledo at home (and Toledo has to play BGSU) -- while getting ducks in a row -- but this is Not the year to be betting on any MAC vs MAC games. Nobody's going 0-loss in the Mac West, and I'd be mildly surprised if there's only 1 1-loss team.

Toledo has the edge right now because they don't have to win out. They can drop any non-NIU game and still win the West. Looking at their schedule, the only other game I see any way they lose is Bowling Green, but they have an advantage because they can afford a screw up.

NIU doesn't have murderers row on the schedule either, but they have 3 loseable road games (Ohio, Ball State, WMU) and Toledo left.

Hell, at this point there's a realistic chance Toledo could lose to NIU and still win the West.

(10-20-2014 08:05 AM)7 Wrote:  Toledo has the edge right now because they don't have to win out. They can drop any non-NIU game and still win the West. Looking at their schedule, the only other game I see any way they lose is Bowling Green, but they have an advantage because they can afford a screw up.

NIU doesn't have murderers row on the schedule either, but they have 3 loseable road games (Ohio, Ball State, WMU) and Toledo left.

+1 Toledo has the clear edge right now. Just speaking from a statistical odds point of view, with this defense, it is HIGHLY unlikely NIU could run the table.

My understanding of the scnearios for the top 4 in the MAC West at this point:

Toledo - if they win the next 3 (including against NIU) they're all but guaranteed to go to Detroit, even if they lose to BG.

NIU - win out and they go to Detroit. Lose another game, then it becomes complicated.

WMU - needs Toledo to lose twice and needs to beat CMU and NIU.

CMU - needs to win out, needs Toledo to lose twice and needs NIU to lose again.

(10-20-2014 09:58 AM)BarsemaBone2 Wrote:  My understanding of the scnearios for the top 4 in the MAC West at this point:

Toledo - if they win the next 3 (including against NIU) they're all but guaranteed to go to Detroit, even if they lose to BG.

NIU - win out and they go to Detroit. Lose another game, then it becomes complicated.

WMU - needs Toledo to lose twice and needs to beat CMU and NIU.

CMU - needs to win out, needs Toledo to lose twice and needs NIU to lose again.

CMU I think would need 3 Toledo losses, I think CMU is effectively eliminated.

Quick question that might stir up some emotions.

Given the opportunity, would you swap Carey for Fleck straight up on October 20, 2014??????

(10-20-2014 12:24 PM)EA3 Wrote:  Quick question that might stir up some emotions.

Given the opportunity, would you swap Carey for Fleck straight up on October 20, 2014??????

No.

(10-20-2014 12:24 PM)EA3 Wrote:  Quick question that might stir up some emotions.

Given the opportunity, would you swap Carey for Fleck straight up on October 20, 2014??????

No, keep the pro style offense away from here.

(10-20-2014 12:24 PM)EA3 Wrote:  Quick question that might stir up some emotions.

Given the opportunity, would you swap Carey for Fleck straight up on October 20, 2014??????

Jesus, God, no.

Fleck may go on to bigger & better things & prove me wrong, but I couldn't handle that level of pompous bull^*t on a daily basis.

(10-20-2014 12:24 PM)EA3 Wrote:  Quick question that might stir up some emotions.

Given the opportunity, would you swap Carey for Fleck straight up on October 20, 2014??????

No way. There is no place to store the oars at Huskie Stadium.

(10-20-2014 12:24 PM)EA3 Wrote:  Quick question that might stir up some emotions.

Given the opportunity, would you swap Carey for Fleck straight up on October 20, 2014??????

Nope. Not a chance. However, I respect him for what he did here as a player.

(10-20-2014 12:24 PM)EA3 Wrote:  Quick question that might stir up some emotions.

Given the opportunity, would you swap Carey for Fleck straight up on October 20, 2014??????

Dear God no.