(10-22-2014 09:10 AM)Afflicted Wrote:  The 2013 team was better.

2013 had Phillip Gaines. Now Kansas City has him.

That's enough to make 2013 better.

2013 lost to North Texas.
2014 lost to ODU.

so far, a wash. Could go either way depending on results over the next 6-8 games. Everybody get your bets down.

(10-22-2014 09:10 AM)Afflicted Wrote:  The 2013 team was better.

I agree, but I see this year as more of a small step backward before a big leap forward next year....but I will knock on wood about that

(10-22-2014 09:29 AM)07owl Wrote:  

(10-22-2014 09:10 AM)Afflicted Wrote:  The 2013 team was better.

I agree, but I see this year as more of a small step backward before a big leap forward next year....but I will knock on wood about that

If we go back to the preseason prediction thread, most people were projecting a small step backward from last years 9-3 regular season.

(10-20-2014 01:05 PM)07owl Wrote:  Joseph Duarte ‏@Chronicle_Owls
Tight end Connor Cella is out for remainder of the season following ankle surgery

Surprised there's been no discussion of this. (That I've seen anyway...)

(10-22-2014 07:01 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(10-21-2014 11:19 PM)Gravy Owl Wrote:  

(10-21-2014 05:44 PM)Pan95 Wrote:  RB: You could argue that it is a push, but are we forgetting just how good Charles Ross was last year?

Yes, I think some of us are. Stats-wise: 12 games, 211 carries for 1280 yards (6.1 YPC, 106.7 YPG). And if anything, those numbers might understate his performance.

I keep reading that the Davis-Dillard combination is as good as he was, but last year we had all 3.

ETA: that was a very good overall analysis.

IMO, the only difference in the running game is the offensive line. Note that both Dillard's and Davis' average yards per carry are lower than last year. In particular, there have been far more carries for zero or negative yardage, and that is usually attributable to the OL more than the RB.

At the same time, their avg yards per carry were significantly less than Ross's - collectively, 5.0 to Ross's 6.1. This year, the duo averages 4.99. Superficially, that points to the individual runner, but I'd wager that it's really a combination of both. Subjectively, to me, it seems like the OL was better in the running game last year, and better in the passing game this year.

(10-22-2014 09:41 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  

(10-20-2014 01:05 PM)07owl Wrote:  Joseph Duarte ‏@Chronicle_Owls
Tight end Connor Cella is out for remainder of the season following ankle surgery

Surprised there's been no discussion of this. (That I've seen anyway...)

Well, you could always discuss rather than complain about others not discussing...

I'm upset that he's out... like TEs of years past, he's a potent weapon.

(10-22-2014 09:49 AM)I45owl Wrote:  

(10-22-2014 09:41 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  

(10-20-2014 01:05 PM)07owl Wrote:  Joseph Duarte ‏@Chronicle_Owls
Tight end Connor Cella is out for remainder of the season following ankle surgery

Surprised there's been no discussion of this. (That I've seen anyway...)

Well, you could always discuss rather than complain about others not discussing...

I'm upset that he's out... like TEs of years past, he's a potent weapon.

I have been thinking on this, but as JAAO says, nobody else has brought it up.

I think his replacements are a bit behind him both in catching ability and blocking without drawing penalties. I hope the week off was used to drill them on both aspects.

(10-22-2014 09:24 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  2013 lost to North Texas.
2014 lost to ODU.

so far, a wash. Could go either way depending on results over the next 6-8 games. Everybody get your bets down.

A wash? What are you talking about? UNT last year was a MUCH, much better team than ODU is this year (or UNT is this year)...and we lost that game in 2013 on the road on a short week.

(10-22-2014 09:49 AM)I45owl Wrote:  

(10-22-2014 09:41 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  

(10-20-2014 01:05 PM)07owl Wrote:  Joseph Duarte ‏@Chronicle_Owls
Tight end Connor Cella is out for remainder of the season following ankle surgery

Surprised there's been no discussion of this. (That I've seen anyway...)

Well, you could always discuss rather than complain about others not discussing...

I'm upset that he's out... like TEs of years past, he's a potent weapon.

Agreed...but for whatever reason, he has been used as little more than a blocker in this year's offensive scheme. I think we've targetted no more than 5 passes all year (though our first 6 games) to our TEs.

(10-22-2014 10:03 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(10-22-2014 09:49 AM)I45owl Wrote:  

(10-22-2014 09:41 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  

(10-20-2014 01:05 PM)07owl Wrote:  Joseph Duarte ‏@Chronicle_Owls
Tight end Connor Cella is out for remainder of the season following ankle surgery

Surprised there's been no discussion of this. (That I've seen anyway...)

Well, you could always discuss rather than complain about others not discussing...

I'm upset that he's out... like TEs of years past, he's a potent weapon.

Agreed...but for whatever reason, he has been used as little more than a blocker in this year's offensive scheme. I think we've targetted no more than 5 passes all year (though our first 6 games) to our TEs.

Close enough - Hunt has three receptions and Cella one. No telling how many were incomplete or dropped without going through six games of play by play.

Cella only played in 4 games, and at least one of those was cut short by injury, maybe two. perhaps the lack of throws to the TE reflects a lack of confidence in the back-ups. If so, I doubly hope they got extra attention during the off week. We need to bring the TE back into the attack.

(10-22-2014 09:29 AM)07owl Wrote:  

(10-22-2014 09:10 AM)Afflicted Wrote:  The 2013 team was better.

I agree, but I see this year as more of a small step backward before a big leap forward next year....but I will knock on wood about that

That's an interesting discussion too: How good will next year's team be?

On D, you figure lots of guys get an extra year of experience under their belts, but at the same time we lose Covington.

On O, aren't we losing Taylor and Hull?

(10-22-2014 10:20 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(10-22-2014 10:03 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(10-22-2014 09:49 AM)I45owl Wrote:  

(10-22-2014 09:41 AM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  

(10-20-2014 01:05 PM)07owl Wrote:  Joseph Duarte ‏@Chronicle_Owls
Tight end Connor Cella is out for remainder of the season following ankle surgery

Surprised there's been no discussion of this. (That I've seen anyway...)

Well, you could always discuss rather than complain about others not discussing...

I'm upset that he's out... like TEs of years past, he's a potent weapon.

Agreed...but for whatever reason, he has been used as little more than a blocker in this year's offensive scheme. I think we've targetted no more than 5 passes all year (though our first 6 games) to our TEs.

Close enough - Hunt has three receptions and Cella one. No telling how many were incomplete or dropped without going through six games of play by play.

Cella only played in 4 games, and at least one of those was cut short by injury, maybe two. perhaps the lack of throws to the TE reflects a lack of confidence in the back-ups. If so, I doubly hope they got extra attention during the off week. We need to bring the TE back into the attack.

I think our OCs have underused out TEs as receivers in both underneath and seem patterns the past two seasons. Having said that, with this year's heavy use of the 3 wideout spread offense, with Hull and Taylor in the slot positions on either side, I'm not sure of the value-added in having the TE as a pass receiver vs. an extra blocker. Having said that, as I've mentioned in previous posts, I'd like to see more use made of the underneath (5 - 10 yard) pass route-- either slants, quick crossing routes or button hooks-- as opposed to the longer passes or the passes in the flat. Not only does this allow DJ to get the ball out quicker to avoid the rush or blitz, but in most cases, this route is there for the taking anytime we go into the spread formation.

(10-22-2014 10:25 AM)ChicagoOwl (BS 07) Wrote:  

(10-22-2014 09:29 AM)07owl Wrote:  

(10-22-2014 09:10 AM)Afflicted Wrote:  The 2013 team was better.

I agree, but I see this year as more of a small step backward before a big leap forward next year....but I will knock on wood about that

That's an interesting discussion too: How good will next year's team be?

On D, you figure lots of guys get an extra year of experience under their belts, but at the same time we lose Covington.

On O, aren't we losing Taylor and Hull?

Covington's early departure is far from a given, especially since he missed a couple games this year. We do lose Callahan, however.

On offense we lose Turner, Taylor and Hull, but we still have key returnees at receiver in Wright, Parks, Cella and Hunt. And, of course, DJ, Davis, Dillard and Hamilton all return, along with a couple very promising redshirted Freshmen.

Next year's team should be primed for a 9-3 at worst season, and should be the heavy preseason CUSA favorite.

(10-22-2014 09:29 AM)07owl Wrote:  

(10-22-2014 09:10 AM)Afflicted Wrote:  The 2013 team was better.

I agree, but I see this year as more of a small step backward before a big leap forward next year....but I will knock on wood about that

I'm not sure why people are putting the 2013 team on a pedestal (albeit small). The 10-4 overall record and CUSA championship were great. The team played fairly complete games against Marshall, LaTech, UTEP, and New Mexico St. But the team had some weaknesses too, losing to UH and North Texas while skating by with close wins over FAU, Tulsa, UAB, and Tulane.

Rice 2013 wasn't that strong over its first 6 games. Then the schedule got easier and both the offense and defense improved.

Look at the 2013 rushing offense:
Team: 4.3 ypc first 6 games (278/1200), 4.7 ypc next 8 games (421/1983), end-of-season 4.6 ypc.
Ross: 5.7 ypc in first 6 games (66 carries for 378 yds), 6.2 next 8 games (145/902), end-of-season 6.1 ypc.
Davis: 4.5 ypc first 6 games (24/107), 5.2 ypc next 8 games (71/369), end-of-season 5.0 ypc.
Dillard: 5.2 ypc first 6 games (37/193), 4.5 ypc next 8 games (45/203), end-of-season 4.8 ypc.

The 2014 team is at 4.3 ypc (same as last year after 6 games), with Davis at 4.3 ypc (down 0.2 ypc) and Dillard at 5.5 ypc (up 0.3 ypc).

Look at sacks allowed and TFL allowed after 6 games:
2013: 17 sacks and 44 tackles-for-loss allowed
2014: 12 sacks and 42 tackles-for-loss allowed

So by a couple different measurements, the 2013 and 2014 rushing offense and o-lines are nearly identical after 6 games. I'm not saying the 2014 team is better running the ball than 2013. But I'm not ready to crown the 2013 team better in this regard either, because the 2014 team really took off after the first 6 games.

Also worth noting that if the Rice offense doesn't take off over the remainder of the season, it doesn't mean the 2013 offense was better. Last year, Rice's last 8 opponents had the following national ranks in yards/game allowed: 125, 109, 17, 70, 118, 22, 35, 18 (average rank 64). This year, Rice's final 6 regular season opponents have the following national ranks in yards/game allowed: 65, 31, 36, 27, 95, 37 (average rank 49). So last year Rice got to face 3 horrific defenses during the stretch run (NMSU, UTEP, UAB). This year Rice gets to face zero horrific defenses and 1 bad defense (UTEP).

(10-22-2014 07:01 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  IMO, the only difference in the running game is the offensive line. Note that both Dillard's and Davis' average yards per carry are lower than last year. In particular, there have been far more carries for zero or negative yardage, and that is usually attributable to the OL more than the RB.

Incorrect. Davis's YPC is lower but Dillard's is higher.

Ross got hit at or behind the LOS plenty of times but often was able to make positive yardage on those plays.

Thanks to MrBig for digging up a lot data. There has been some discussion about the lack of TE involvement in the offense. I remember that in 2012 we saw a lot of bubble screens to Vance McDonald. I think that very soon, our offense is going to be very, very good.

1. Athletic TEs - Hunt and Wells are both big, athletic, good at blocking and have good hands.
2. Wide Receivers - Jordan Taylor traditionally has been our big weapon at this position, but going forward in 2014, Hull, Mayden, and Wright have played well. I don't know if Alaka is hurt, but I had high expectations of contributions from. And we need to get Parks going.
3. The running back position has been productive. I wouldn't mind seeing a bit more wild owl in-order to re-establish Bob.
4. Offensive line - Don't look now, but our overall offensive line play is getting seriously good. I think that it is just a matter of time before we start seeing those guys get drafted. Had Ian Gray been a multiple year starter, he could have been our first since Scott Mitchell went to play in the CFL. Caleb Williams could be that guy. Also, look at the roster at some of the underclassmen. There are some big, athletic players that are either redshirting or not yet getting rotated in.

As for 2015, our key losses will be:
Offense: Jordan Taylor, Nico Carlson, Matt Simonnette
Defense: James Radcliffe, Bryce Callahan, Julius White, Malcolm Hill, Gabe Baker, Dylan Klare, Zac Patt

I think that the Offense will be very good. Spencer Stanley looks to be the heir apparent at Center and a key weakness (his size) was re mediated in the off season; from 6-2 275 to 6-3 285. We get tons of skill players back as well as the anticipated debut of the Walter twins and Samuel Stewart.

As for defense, I am assuming the return of both Covington and Mooch. Losing a senior laden defensive backfield will hurt, but getting our interior defensive line back will limit their exposure. I would also expect that a good portion of the 2015 signers will get immediate playing time. Additionally, we get everyone back at Defensive End with the exception of Zac Patt.

In summation, we will have a senior QB, a multitude of skill players, and a defense with experience at some positions and inexperience at other positions. Our biggest competition in 2015 would have to be Southern Miss and La Tech in the West, and MTSU and UAB in the East.

I think I will complete 2014 before I worry about 2015.

It is nice to see that "Wait until next year" has some teeth in it now, though.

(10-22-2014 03:53 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  What's happened to Hill is very simple. He started running into defenses that play at SEC speed. He's not ready for that.

He sure looked good against South Carolina and Arkansas.

(10-22-2014 10:39 AM)mrbig Wrote:  Also worth noting that if the Rice offense doesn't take off over the remainder of the season, it doesn't mean the 2013 offense was better. Last year, Rice's last 8 opponents had the following national ranks in yards/game allowed: 125, 109, 17, 70, 118, 22, 35, 18 (average rank 64). This year, Rice's final 6 regular season opponents have the following national ranks in yards/game allowed: 65, 31, 36, 27, 95, 37 (average rank 49). So last year Rice got to face 3 horrific defenses during the stretch run (NMSU, UTEP, UAB). This year Rice gets to face zero horrific defenses and 1 bad defense (UTEP).

By the same token, our first 6 opponents last year were slightly stronger against the run than the first 6 this year (75 vs 80, per this).

It's interesting to note that in both cases, the late-season opposing run defenses are rated *better* than the early-season ones.

It's also worth noting that Ross missed a fair amount of the first 6 games, and I think it's safe to say that his return had something to do with the improvement. The 3 games he missed (or mostly missed) were all below average rushing for Rice.