(10-20-2014 08:35 AM)capn kitt Wrote: (10-20-2014 08:31 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote: If you're going to look for playoff prognostication, the only source I trust is NoBowls.com
It think he's right; I think the CAA only gets 3 teams in. I don't like it, but I think there's a good chance it will play out that way. I also would be mad if the committee put all 3 CAA teams in the same quarter bracket.
The only way the CAA only gets 3 teams in is there are only 3 teams that get to at least 8 Div I wins, 8-4/5-3. That could happen.
Right now with 6 weeks to go 5 teams are already eliminated from that, including SBU, who would have to win out just to reach 7 Div I wins. Now if they did win out they would likely get in at 8-4/7-1, 7-4 vs Div I, but they aren't gonna win out. They are likely 100% eliminated this week when they are @ UNH with UNH coming off a bye.
-Albany, without playing a I-A, wouldn't likely get in at 8-4/4-4, and to get in at 9-3/5-3, would have to win 4 of their last 5: Colgate, @ UNH, UD, @ Villanova, SBU. That ain't happening
-UD, with 2 OOC losses, will have to win 4 of 5 to reach 8-4/6-2, and they still have @ W&M, URI, @ Albany, @ UNH, VU. That ain't happening.
That leaves 5 teams (UNH, VU, UR, JMU, and W&M) with 6 weeks to go. So if things break right (or wrong if you will) the CAA could only get 3 in (UNH, VU, and 1 of the other 3). Heck of things broke EXACTLY right/wrong with a # of upsets you could have only UNH & VU getting in with 3-4 teams finishing 7-5.
But you won't see an 8-4/5-3 CAA left out of a 24 team field...