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Pitz Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 08:39 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  
(10-20-2014 08:35 AM)capn kitt Wrote:  
(10-20-2014 08:31 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  If you're going to look for playoff prognostication, the only source I trust is NoBowls.com

It think he's right; I think the CAA only gets 3 teams in. I don't like it, but I think there's a good chance it will play out that way. I also would be mad if the committee put all 3 CAA teams in the same quarter bracket.

Well, it specifically is if the playoffs were THIS WEEK - I bet Pitz would put more than 3 CAA Teams in at the end of the season. Pitz?

All depends on results. As has been stated on here, a CAA team with an 8-4 record is very likely to make the field. If more than 3 teams end at 8-4 or better, then sure. If not? Highly doubt it.

The Missoury Valley is the real enigma this year. So many playoff-caliber teams up and down those standings. It would not surprise me to see a 5-loss MVFC team make the field (and win games).
10-20-2014 09:37 AM
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bjk3047 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 08:24 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  the only bracketology site I trust is http://www.nobowls.com

You wouldn't happen to have any sort of...vested interest in that site would you? 04-cheers
10-20-2014 09:43 AM
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Deez Nuts Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 09:43 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  You wouldn't happen to have any sort of...vested interest in that site would you? 04-cheers

just some guy I know.04-cheers
(This post was last modified: 10-20-2014 09:46 AM by Deez Nuts.)
10-20-2014 09:46 AM
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DirtyDukes Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
Hahaha holy **** I didn't see Hittie posted that like 2 posts before mine. I swear
10-20-2014 10:00 AM
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HyperDuke Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 10:00 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  Hahaha holy **** I didn't see Hittie posted that like 2 posts before mine. I swear

**You've got to try THEWSE PILL$!!*~
10-20-2014 10:20 AM
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capn kitt Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 03:55 AM)Yesolitis Wrote:  Who cares? We do apparently. We're talking about it.

I care; for about five minutes of every hour, of every workday.
10-20-2014 10:36 AM
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capn kitt Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 08:39 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  
(10-20-2014 08:35 AM)capn kitt Wrote:  
(10-20-2014 08:31 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  If you're going to look for playoff prognostication, the only source I trust is NoBowls.com

It think he's right; I think the CAA only gets 3 teams in. I don't like it, but I think there's a good chance it will play out that way. I also would be mad if the committee put all 3 CAA teams in the same quarter bracket.

Well, it specifically is if the playoffs were THIS WEEK - I bet Pitz would put more than 3 CAA Teams in at the end of the season. Pitz?

Not to pick an argument, but he specifically says "where teams may stand in a projected playoff bracket on Nov. 23, and not based on current records or conference standings". I'm trying to figure out what has transpired in the last 2 weeks to make him think we will be more worthy than W&M. In any case, that will work itself out in Nov with games against W&M, SB, and RU. And I would say at 8-4 there is a 75% chance we are in.
10-20-2014 10:46 AM
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JMU2004 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
UR just lost Strauss for the year along with Barnette per Rocco on the CAA call.

Top QB and top WR out.
10-20-2014 10:47 AM
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
The only way we're not getting in at 8-4 is if we're tied with another CAA squad in conference record and overall record of 8-4, plus they hold the head-to-head win over us. Lets hope UD doesn't end up 8-4.
10-20-2014 10:51 AM
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jmufbs Offline
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Post: #50
Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 10:51 AM)Potomac Wrote:  The only way we're not getting in at 8-4 is if we're tied with another CAA squad in conference record and overall record of 8-4, plus they hold the head-to-head win over us. Lets hope UD doesn't end up 8-4.

Gotta look at number of D1 wins !
Stoney brook has a d2 win -haven't checked UD yet ? Didn't they play westchester again ?
10-20-2014 11:53 AM
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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 08:35 AM)capn kitt Wrote:  
(10-20-2014 08:31 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  If you're going to look for playoff prognostication, the only source I trust is NoBowls.com

It think he's right; I think the CAA only gets 3 teams in. I don't like it, but I think there's a good chance it will play out that way. I also would be mad if the committee put all 3 CAA teams in the same quarter bracket.

The only way the CAA only gets 3 teams in is there are only 3 teams that get to at least 8 Div I wins, 8-4/5-3. That could happen.

Right now with 6 weeks to go 5 teams are already eliminated from that, including SBU, who would have to win out just to reach 7 Div I wins. Now if they did win out they would likely get in at 8-4/7-1, 7-4 vs Div I, but they aren't gonna win out. They are likely 100% eliminated this week when they are @ UNH with UNH coming off a bye.
-Albany, without playing a I-A, wouldn't likely get in at 8-4/4-4, and to get in at 9-3/5-3, would have to win 4 of their last 5: Colgate, @ UNH, UD, @ Villanova, SBU. That ain't happening
-UD, with 2 OOC losses, will have to win 4 of 5 to reach 8-4/6-2, and they still have @ W&M, URI, @ Albany, @ UNH, VU. That ain't happening.

That leaves 5 teams (UNH, VU, UR, JMU, and W&M) with 6 weeks to go. So if things break right (or wrong if you will) the CAA could only get 3 in (UNH, VU, and 1 of the other 3). Heck of things broke EXACTLY right/wrong with a # of upsets you could have only UNH & VU getting in with 3-4 teams finishing 7-5.

But you won't see an 8-4/5-3 CAA left out of a 24 team field...
(This post was last modified: 10-20-2014 12:46 PM by BDKJMU.)
10-20-2014 11:56 AM
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JMUDunk Online
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Post: #52
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 10:51 AM)Potomac Wrote:  The only way we're not getting in at 8-4 is if we're tied with another CAA squad in conference record and overall record of 8-4, plus they hold the head-to-head win over us. Lets hope UD doesn't end up 8-4.

I can't see that. No idea how good Sacred Heart really is, but to lose to that Towson team I watched last week, eeeesh. Course yea, they (UD) beat us, but I'm not entirely sure what I'm seeing week in week out with JMU either.

I see the blue chickens with one more over Rhody and that's about it. They are @ Wmgt, @ Albany, @ UNH and then close with 'Nova at home. By then the rest of the fan base may have died off entirely, or with having dropped 3 of 4, they'll stay home out of the cold with their space heaters on high.
10-20-2014 12:30 PM
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 11:53 AM)jmufbs Wrote:  Gotta look at number of D1 wins !
Stoney brook has a d2 win -haven't checked UD yet ? Didn't they play westchester again ?

You're correct that D2 wins may as well not exist, for purposes of the FCS playoffs.
Stony Brook is the only CAA team with a D2 game/win, so they're really 3-4 (3-1) with an "11-game schedule".
After looking at Stony Brook's CAA schedule, it's pathetically easy. Who let them have this powderpuff of a schedule? No wonder they look like they're lighting it up.

Based on CAA Preseason Picks:
Home:
#4 William & Mary
#7 Maine
#8 James Madison
#11 Rhode Island

Road:
#1 New Hampshire
#5 Towson
#10 Albany
#12 Elon

That's an average of 7.25 SOS in the CAA. Ours is 6.38. Hopefully things like that will make a difference if there's a tie.
10-20-2014 12:30 PM
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 11:56 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(10-20-2014 08:35 AM)capn kitt Wrote:  
(10-20-2014 08:31 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  If you're going to look for playoff prognostication, the only source I trust is NoBowls.com

It think he's right; I think the CAA only gets 3 teams in. I don't like it, but I think there's a good chance it will play out that way. I also would be mad if the committee put all 3 CAA teams in the same quarter bracket.

The only way the CAA only gets 3 teams in is there are only 3 teams that get to at least 8 Div I wins, 8-4/5-3. That could happen.

Right now with 6 weeks to go 5 teams are already eliminated from that, including SBU, who would have to win out just to reach 7 Div I wins. Now if they did win out they would likely get in at 8-4/7-1, 7-4 vs Div I, but they aren't gonna win out. They are likely 100% eliminated this week when they are @ UNH with UNH coming off a bye.
-Albany, without playing a I-A, wouldn't likely get in at 8-4/4-4, and to get in at 9-3/5-3, would have to win 4 of their last 5: Colgate, @ UNH, UD, Villanova, SBU. That ain't happening
-UD, with 2 OOC losses, will have to win 4 of 5 to reach 8-4/6-2, and they still have @ W&M, URI, @ Albany, @ UNH, VU. That ain't happening.

That leaves 5 teams (UNH, VU, UR, JMU, and W&M) with 6 weeks to go. So if things break right (or wrong if you will) the CAA could only get 3 in (UNH, VU, and 1 of the other 3). Heck of things broke EXACTLY right/wrong with a # of upsets you could have only UNH & VU getting in with 3-4 teams finishing 7-5.

But you won't see an 8-4/5-3 CAA left out of a 24 team field...

an excellent breakdown bdk and you showed why, baring huge upsets, all but 5 teams are already all but eliminated.

I only disagree that the CAA will not be only a 2 bid conference. Absolutely bare minimum, we will get 3 teams in, and that would be a bulls.hit snub at that as the currently ranked #2 FCS conference.
Even if a 3rd place team is 7-5, at least one 7-5 team will get in. You can say "I told you so" if i'm wrong, and i'll want to burn down the NCAA offices for this crap.
10-20-2014 12:41 PM
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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 08:31 AM)capn kitt Wrote:  I'm not sure why he has swapped us in and W&M out at this point in the season. They played 'Nova much closer than we did and have a better quality win (over decent Stony Brook) than we do. Is it simply because they are 1-2 in conference?

Well, JMU had to play @ Nova who was coming off of a bye week. W&M got Nova at home without them coming off of a bye week. Big difference.

Also W&M was absolutely a better team than JMU in Sept. But maybe not now or in Nov. Some people might think that a team with a new coaching staff, new offense, new defense & a slew of transfers is going to take 1/2 a season to get their sh*t together.

And this past weekend the TU/UD game was a prime example of comparative scores not meaning diddly...
10-20-2014 12:44 PM
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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 12:41 PM)Potomac Wrote:  
(10-20-2014 11:56 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(10-20-2014 08:35 AM)capn kitt Wrote:  
(10-20-2014 08:31 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  If you're going to look for playoff prognostication, the only source I trust is NoBowls.com

It think he's right; I think the CAA only gets 3 teams in. I don't like it, but I think there's a good chance it will play out that way. I also would be mad if the committee put all 3 CAA teams in the same quarter bracket.

The only way the CAA only gets 3 teams in is there are only 3 teams that get to at least 8 Div I wins, 8-4/5-3. That could happen.

Right now with 6 weeks to go 5 teams are already eliminated from that, including SBU, who would have to win out just to reach 7 Div I wins. Now if they did win out they would likely get in at 8-4/7-1, 7-4 vs Div I, but they aren't gonna win out. They are likely 100% eliminated this week when they are @ UNH with UNH coming off a bye.
-Albany, without playing a I-A, wouldn't likely get in at 8-4/4-4, and to get in at 9-3/5-3, would have to win 4 of their last 5: Colgate, @ UNH, UD, Villanova, SBU. That ain't happening
-UD, with 2 OOC losses, will have to win 4 of 5 to reach 8-4/6-2, and they still have @ W&M, URI, @ Albany, @ UNH, VU. That ain't happening.

That leaves 5 teams (UNH, VU, UR, JMU, and W&M) with 6 weeks to go. So if things break right (or wrong if you will) the CAA could only get 3 in (UNH, VU, and 1 of the other 3). Heck of things broke EXACTLY right/wrong with a # of upsets you could have only UNH & VU getting in with 3-4 teams finishing 7-5.

But you won't see an 8-4/5-3 CAA left out of a 24 team field...

an excellent breakdown bdk and you showed why, baring huge upsets, all but 5 teams are already all but eliminated.

I only disagree that the CAA will not be only a 2 bid conference. Absolutely bare minimum, we will get 3 teams in, and that would be a bulls.hit snub at that as the currently ranked #2 FCS conference.
Even if a 3rd place team is 7-5, at least one 7-5 team will get in. You can say "I told you so" if i'm wrong, and i'll want to burn down the NCAA offices for this crap.

Thanks. Sleight mistake I had. Albany is @ UNH and @ VU. I had them VU at home along with UD and SBU. Regardless, they are toast.
10-20-2014 12:49 PM
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2Dukes4Life Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
Up to 29 votes in the new poll.....sheesh

Someone cue Jim Mora for us....
(This post was last modified: 10-20-2014 12:57 PM by 2Dukes4Life.)
10-20-2014 12:52 PM
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jmu-fan-1981 Offline
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Post: #58
Realistic Playoff Chances
If they win the next 2 games I think they'll finally sniff the top 25. I don't get how Albany deserves to be top 25.
10-20-2014 12:54 PM
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Potomac Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 12:54 PM)jmu-fan-1981 Wrote:  If they win the next 2 games I think they'll finally sniff the top 25. I don't get how Albany deserves to be top 25.

they're looking at a team's win-loss record without questioning the quality of the wins, or the fact that they're putting them ahead of a team that beat them head-to-head this season.

they see 5-2 and few teams are 5-2 at this point. That's why they put them in. They're also probably oooing and ahhhing at their road win against Maine, the defending CAA champs. they apparently haven't seen how bad maine is this year.
(This post was last modified: 10-20-2014 12:58 PM by Potomac.)
10-20-2014 12:57 PM
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capn kitt Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Realistic Playoff Chances
(10-20-2014 12:57 PM)Potomac Wrote:  
(10-20-2014 12:54 PM)jmu-fan-1981 Wrote:  If they win the next 2 games I think they'll finally sniff the top 25. I don't get how Albany deserves to be top 25.

they're looking at a team's win-loss record without questioning the quality of the wins, or the fact that they're putting them ahead of a team that beat them head-to-head this season.

they see 5-2 and few teams are 5-2 at this point. That's why they put them in. They're also probably oooing and ahhhing at their road win against Maine, the defending CAA champs. they apparently haven't seen how bad maine is this year.

...which is fine, really. I mean, we are asking to be placed ahead of UDel, a team we lost to, so why shouldn't they be ahead of us? Their record is better and we only beat them by a FG. If they win 3 or their last 5 (entirely possible) then they would be 8-4 and still Top 25 material.
10-20-2014 01:27 PM
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