https://twitter.com/CUSAbbs/status/522791348840042496
Based on Massey Ratings





Based on USAToday Composite Rankings http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nca.../15666409/

I thought that was the case just eyeballin' it. Now i'm further convinced with this independent confirmation. We have a real tough row to hoe ahead of us. I am just super glad we are getting La Tech and Marshall at home this year. So there is that.

That's exactly why I looked it up. West leader, east leader, Arkansas, MT, a rivalry game, always tough FAU. No gimme games (not that UAB ever has gimmes).

Where do you UAB fans expect to finish this year? I haven't caught a UAB game yet this year but the scores have looked pretty impressive outside of the FIU game which seems like that WTF game that so many teams are prone to have.

I think 7-5 is the most likely record. Anything better would be icing on the cake. I'd still be happy with 6-6 if we broke out decade long bowl drought. We were -6 in turnovers in the FIU game. Almost impossible to win when you do that.

(10-16-2014 02:24 PM)HSV_BLAZER Wrote:  I think 7-5 is the most likely record. Anything better would be icing on the cake. I'd still be happy with 6-6 if we broke out decade long bowl drought. We were -6 in turnovers in the FIU game. Almost impossible to win when you do that.

Yep. And a couple of made FG's and we'd be 5-2; oh well.

(10-16-2014 02:18 PM)TheEastisPurple Wrote:  Where do you UAB fans expect to finish this year? I haven't caught a UAB game yet this year but the scores have looked pretty impressive outside of the FIU game which seems like that WTF game that so many teams are prone to have.

UAB is gonna have to fight and play well to make a bowl. Not all of those 6 turnovers were UAB mistakes, FIU is great at taking the ball away. Panthers have a tough road to bowl eligibility as well.

Wouldnt the Football Composite ratings be more accurate?

(10-16-2014 02:24 PM)HSV_BLAZER Wrote:  I think 7-5 is the most likely record. Anything better would be icing on the cake. I'd still be happy with 6-6 if we broke out decade long bowl drought. We were -6 in turnovers in the FIU game. Almost impossible to win when you do that.

Currently sitting at 4-2 and assuming a loss to Arkansas, 7-5 would mean beating at least one of MT, LT and Marshall. I'm not sure how you can look at that and say 7-5 is most likely.

(10-16-2014 03:03 PM)Shrack Wrote:  Wouldnt the Football Composite ratings be more accurate?

Possibly. I didn't know what that was until I just Googled it. I'll re-run the numbers this evening.

(10-16-2014 03:15 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  Currently sitting at 4-2 and assuming a loss to Arkansas, 7-5 would mean beating at least one of MT, LT and Marshall. I'm not sure how you can look at that and say 7-5 is most likely.

FWIW Massey, where I got these numbers, only has UAB favored in 2 more games.

(10-16-2014 03:27 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  

(10-16-2014 03:03 PM)Shrack Wrote:  Wouldnt the Football Composite ratings be more accurate?

Possibly. I didn't know what that was until I just Googled it. I'll re-run the numbers this evening.

(10-16-2014 03:15 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  Currently sitting at 4-2 and assuming a loss to Arkansas, 7-5 would mean beating at least one of MT, LT and Marshall. I'm not sure how you can look at that and say 7-5 is most likely.

FWIW Massey, where I got these numbers, only has UAB favored in 2 more games.

Same goes for ESPN power index, but they do have the LT game as a virtual coin flip.

(10-16-2014 03:15 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(10-16-2014 02:24 PM)HSV_BLAZER Wrote:  I think 7-5 is the most likely record. Anything better would be icing on the cake. I'd still be happy with 6-6 if we broke out decade long bowl drought. We were -6 in turnovers in the FIU game. Almost impossible to win when you do that.

Currently sitting at 4-2 and assuming a loss to Arkansas, 7-5 would mean beating at least one of MT, LT and Marshall. I'm not sure how you can look at that and say 7-5 is most likely.

Yeah, I really don't know about that either. Going 1-2 in those games wouldn't be unheard of though. But that would also mean going 2-0 in the other two, which we know UAB can not be counted on to do.

At the beginning of the year I said I'd be happy if we won 4-5 games and were better in game 12 than we were in game 1. That's what I'll continue to base the season off of. I really think the MTSU game will make the difference. Win that, and 7-8 wins is possible. Lose it, and we are probably looking at a 2-4 finish at best.

Either way, I'm excited to watch meaningful football during our 7th week. It should be a good game.

(10-16-2014 03:51 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  

(10-16-2014 03:15 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(10-16-2014 02:24 PM)HSV_BLAZER Wrote:  I think 7-5 is the most likely record. Anything better would be icing on the cake. I'd still be happy with 6-6 if we broke out decade long bowl drought. We were -6 in turnovers in the FIU game. Almost impossible to win when you do that.

Currently sitting at 4-2 and assuming a loss to Arkansas, 7-5 would mean beating at least one of MT, LT and Marshall. I'm not sure how you can look at that and say 7-5 is most likely.

Yeah, I really don't know about that either. Going 1-2 in those games wouldn't be unheard of though. But that would also mean going 2-0 in the other two, which we know UAB can not be counted on to do.

At the beginning of the year I said I'd be happy if we won 4-5 games and were better in game 12 than we were in game 1. That's what I'll continue to base the season off of. I really think the MTSU game will make the difference. Win that, and 7-8 wins is possible. Lose it, and we are probably looking at a 2-4 finish at best.

Either way, I'm excited to watch meaningful football during our 7th week. It should be a good game.

If UAB takes care of business(FAU/USM) and doesn't manage a big upset(Arky/Marshall) the Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech games(both should be great games) will decide if you go 6-6, 7-5, or 8-4.

(10-16-2014 03:57 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(10-16-2014 03:51 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  

(10-16-2014 03:15 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote:  

(10-16-2014 02:24 PM)HSV_BLAZER Wrote:  I think 7-5 is the most likely record. Anything better would be icing on the cake. I'd still be happy with 6-6 if we broke out decade long bowl drought. We were -6 in turnovers in the FIU game. Almost impossible to win when you do that.

Currently sitting at 4-2 and assuming a loss to Arkansas, 7-5 would mean beating at least one of MT, LT and Marshall. I'm not sure how you can look at that and say 7-5 is most likely.

Yeah, I really don't know about that either. Going 1-2 in those games wouldn't be unheard of though. But that would also mean going 2-0 in the other two, which we know UAB can not be counted on to do.

At the beginning of the year I said I'd be happy if we won 4-5 games and were better in game 12 than we were in game 1. That's what I'll continue to base the season off of. I really think the MTSU game will make the difference. Win that, and 7-8 wins is possible. Lose it, and we are probably looking at a 2-4 finish at best.

Either way, I'm excited to watch meaningful football during our 7th week. It should be a good game.

If UAB takes care of business(FAU/USM) and doesn't manage a big upset(Arky/Marshall) the Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech games(both should be great games) will decide if you go 6-6, 7-5, or 8-4.

This is basically what I was thinking with a split of the MTSU and La Tech tossup games. I'd obviously love an upset of Marshall and/or Arkansas and I'm wary of the FAU and Southern Miss road games, but I still think 7-5 is the final record.

It would be super awesome if we could get even half of our remaining (which would be of course a 7-5 record). It is not unheard of based on how we are playing. In fact if we continue to play at this high level I would think it possible to go a tad better still. Even an east dark horse if we could upset Marsha...

I didn't in any way predict anything even close to this going into the season and still don't. So far I'm eating cake and ice cream.

I see each and every one of the games ahead as a dogfight going in and would split them into two tiers of difficulty:

Marsha and Arkansas in Tier I

The Rest in Tier II (La Tech is close to jumping a tier but since we have them at home I'll keep them here. Also, USM is our rival so we'll get their A game and they are on the road. FAU and MTSU are both playing good ball as well. This tier isn't bad by any means I just see some separation between the two and not enough real deep separation to form a Tier III)

EDIT: OK lets go out on a limb and say as a floor I would be very disappointed at this point if we did worse than 6-6. We are every bit the challenge for what I am calling "Tier II" and I'd be at this point a bit ticked at the team (knowing now what they are capable of) for at least not batting their share of .500 there. It's not my style however to pick individual games. I always see stretches of schedule more holistically expectation-wise.

I'm hoping like hell to be able to make the short drive down to see the LT/UAB game. Should be a really great matchup.

I hope LA Tech fans will have a contingent in Birmingham. USM and Tech will be our closest division rivals next year.


I updated the original post with the computer composite rankings. UAB's schedule remains the toughest using Massey or the Composite rankings.