The only chance ECU has of making a playoff in football this year is if they petition the NCAA to allow them to drop down to FCS mid-season.

(10-15-2014 07:50 AM)StillJonesing Wrote:  TCU would have already been in the top 4 twice in the last 5 or 6 years under this system and with a lesser schedule than we even played, one year for sure they were #3 prior to bowl season and by a sizable gap in every computer and poll.

You can't say TCU would have been in the top 4 twice "under this system" because "this system" is new this year. When TCU was ranked in the top 4 twice under the BCS system, the BCS ranking was based on an easily calculated set formula of 1/3 Coaches Poll, 1/3 Harris Poll, 1/3 average of 6 computer rankings. The computer rankings to be used were predetermined and the human polls accounted for over 100 people voting.

The "new system" is not a set formula. It will be decided in a closed conference room by a committee of 13 members, most of whom were appointed by or having ties to a P5 school. There is no relatively transparent BCS formula. The committee doesn't have to go by any set human poll or computer rankings. If this "new system" were in place in 2009, the committee would have likely put 12-1 Florida (coming off their only loss of the year in the SEC championship game) into the 4 team playoff over 12-0 TCU.

Last night on one of the ESPN shows they were talking about how each committee member my place more weight on different criteria. One might value a conference championship, one might value overall wins, etc. About the only thing I heard them agree on is that Marshall has next to no shot due to SOS, even if undefeated and blowing teams out. I think that's good for a couple reasons. First, if they use that criteria for the 4 playoff spots, it should carry over to the access bowl slot. Secondly, I think it will limit the number of FCS teams that the big schools are playing each year, as well as the number of Sunbelt and MAC schools. That should increase the games for the AAC against big schools and improve SOS so that if an AAC school finishes with a couple of signature wins and an 11-1 or 12-0 season it should lock up the access slot.

(10-15-2014 08:10 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  Why can't people change their opinion with you? I'm talking in theoretical situations here. Clearly I qualified my opinion here with the scenarios. If there are multiple 2 loss teams or whatever and a G5 is undefeated they could make it but the odds are stacked against them.

When people (even me) say "no way" I don't think that they mean literally there is no scenario under the sun in which a G5 team could make it. What they mean is that the odds are really, really slim.

you were one of those people saying it would never happen. Clearly you just want to argue with me, just to argue to flip that quick.

(10-15-2014 08:40 AM)Inigo Wrote:  

(10-15-2014 07:50 AM)StillJonesing Wrote:  TCU would have already been in the top 4 twice in the last 5 or 6 years under this system and with a lesser schedule than we even played, one year for sure they were #3 prior to bowl season and by a sizable gap in every computer and poll.

You can't say TCU would have been in the top 4 twice "under this system" because "this system" is new this year. When TCU was ranked in the top 4 twice under the BCS system, the BCS ranking was based on an easily calculated set formula of 1/3 Coaches Poll, 1/3 Harris Poll, 1/3 average of 6 computer rankings. The computer rankings to be used were predetermined and the human polls accounted for over 100 people voting.

The "new system" is not a set formula. It will be decided in a closed conference room by a committee of 13 members, most of whom were appointed by or having ties to a P5 school. There is no relatively transparent BCS formula. The committee doesn't have to go by any set human poll or computer rankings. If this "new system" were in place in 2009, the committee would have likely put 12-1 Florida (coming off their only loss of the year in the SEC championship game) into the 4 team playoff over 12-0 TCU.

This was the final BCS ranking from one of those seasons.....

1 Auburn .9866
2 Oregon .9720
3 TCU .9123
4 Stanford .8365
5 Wisconsin .8041

Clearly they were FAR ahead of #4 and #5 in every metric or human perception poll you could find that year. You seriously think a selection committee is going to ignore all that and grab some 5th or 6th place team if a G5 team own every computers metric, they own the human voters, and are just that much more well thought of nationally. Sure. TCU was one loss away from the national championship game that year no les. I'll never say never so maybe once and a while they get left out like in basketball deserving teams do with a committee set up but if you have a resume like that you'll get in at some point to unless these are dirty committees which I don't buy the black chopper theories when the football estabishment already let multiple G5's in the BCS even when they didn't half to.

TCU didn't even have that great of a schedule, and the year before when they would have went too they didn't even start the season ranked. Regardless it can happen by scheduling 3 or 4 respected BCS schools (which we have done for years) and winning them all, or finishing highly ranked and starting ranked in the polls the next year. That's the formula, and clearly their are avenues to get into this playoff. The people that say it can never happen are kidding themselves.

(10-14-2014 03:26 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  No.

This...unless every P# team has 3 losses.

(10-15-2014 09:41 AM)StillJonesing Wrote:  

(10-15-2014 08:10 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  Why can't people change their opinion with you? I'm talking in theoretical situations here. Clearly I qualified my opinion here with the scenarios. If there are multiple 2 loss teams or whatever and a G5 is undefeated they could make it but the odds are stacked against them.

When people (even me) say "no way" I don't think that they mean literally there is no scenario under the sun in which a G5 team could make it. What they mean is that the odds are really, really slim.

you were one of those people saying it would never happen. Clearly you just want to argue with me, just to argue to flip that quick.

Mathmatically speaking there's always a chance. That's all I'm saying. In the real world a lot of crazy stuff would have to happen to overcome P5 biases. Congratulations on being right on the statistics first.

No, but the fact that is being discussed makes me believe it was possible had they gone 12-0 (and got help). With a loss, no amount of help will matter.

ECU was just picked on ESPN's CFB Daily as the #5 best 1-loss team to have a shot at CFB Playoff.

1. Auburn
2. Kansas State
3. Michigan State
4. Oregon
5. ECU

"On a neutral site they can beat anybody!"

No realistic chance of making it this year but the publicity is great & if undefeated the Pirates would have a fairly good shot this year.

(10-14-2014 04:17 PM)gotigers1 Wrote:  Slim to none, and I just saw none take slim out back and shoot him

So you are saying we got a chance?!?!?!? Oh yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!