If you've followed my posting history, I think you'd agree that I don't tend to fall on the side of alarmism.

Noting that disease tends to grow exponentially, Ebola could top the list within a year or two.

The ominous math of the Ebola epidemic - The Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/h...story.html Wrote:When the experts describe the Ebola disaster, they do so with numbers. The statistics include not just the obvious ones, such as caseloads, deaths and the rate of infection, but also the ones that describe the speed of the global response.

Right now, the math still favors the virus.

Global health officials are looking closely at the “reproduction number,” which estimates how many people, on average, will catch the virus from each person stricken with Ebola. The epidemic will begin to decline when that number falls below one. A recent analysis estimated the number at 1.5 to 2.

The number of Ebola cases in West Africa has been doubling about every three weeks. There is little evidence so far that the epidemic is losing momentum.

“The speed at which things are moving on the ground, it’s hard for people to get their minds around. People don’t understand the concept of exponential growth,” said Tom Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Exponential growth in the context of three weeks means: ‘If I know that X needs to be done, and I work my butt off and get it done in three weeks, it’s now half as good as it needs to be.’ ”

Frieden warned Thursday that without immediate, concerted, bold action, the Ebola virus could become a global calamity on the scale of HIV.

Your chart serves to put that into perspective nicely.

There has been a lot of criticism about Obama's reaction to Ebola. But, in this case, the administration has probably done pretty close to the best possible response, and that it to send troops to Africa to build up their treatment capacities. The end result may be some soldiers contract Ebola and they may bring it back to the United States. But, the absolute best option to prevent the spread to America is to help stave off its spread in Africa now.

Do that same study for the towns that Ebola has spread to. I bet the chart is a little different.

I'm not an alarmist, but I also am not going to stick my head in the sand like all is well. Perhaps those that want to discount this like it's nothing would better understand if patient 0 landed in their city or state.

The fact that Ebola has NEVER spread in the United States before this administration, their proven incompetence to handle crises, and the fact that they all too often prefer to make something political over doing what is in the best interests of the country not only pisses people off, but also worries them.

So, hype? No. More like well-grounded concern.

I actually had no idea that HIV/AIDS was still that big of a killer in Africa. Also, note some of the other killers - malaria, diarrhea, birth complications etc. Too many of these killers could be eliminated through aggressive public health campaigns and local commitment to strong health care. Malaria/DDT. Diarrhea/clean water. Birth complications/hospital infrastructure

Sad, really. I am especially disappointed in malaria and the lack of clean water. Each has rather simple solutions.

(10-14-2014 01:57 PM)Kronke Wrote:  I'm not an alarmist, but I also am not going to stick my head in the sand like all is well. Perhaps those that want to discount this like it's nothing would better understand if patient 0 landed in their city or state.

The fact that Ebola has NEVER spread in the United States before this administration, their proven incompetence to handle crises, and the fact that they all too often prefer to make something political over doing what is in the best interests of the country not only pisses people off, but also worries them.

So, hype? No. More like well-grounded concern.

Whereas the Republicans would wave their magic wand and the issue would be solved. Sure. If they had their way there'd probably be a lot fewer people that had healthcare (even before the whole Obamacare stuff started), and the virus would have a better chance of spreading.

It's not you Owl.. I said a nurse who treated her relative should not have been sent back to work after 8 days... Thats what set him off

(10-14-2014 02:30 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 01:57 PM)Kronke Wrote:  I'm not an alarmist, but I also am not going to stick my head in the sand like all is well. Perhaps those that want to discount this like it's nothing would better understand if patient 0 landed in their city or state.

The fact that Ebola has NEVER spread in the United States before this administration, their proven incompetence to handle crises, and the fact that they all too often prefer to make something political over doing what is in the best interests of the country not only pisses people off, but also worries them.

So, hype? No. More like well-grounded concern.

Whereas the Republicans would wave their magic wand and the issue would be solved. Sure. If they had their way there'd probably be a lot fewer people that had healthcare (even before the whole Obamacare stuff started), and the virus would have a better chance of spreading.

No one is saying the Republicans could or would of stopped it from entering or spreading, I'm just pointing out the facts.

(10-14-2014 02:33 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 02:30 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 01:57 PM)Kronke Wrote:  I'm not an alarmist, but I also am not going to stick my head in the sand like all is well. Perhaps those that want to discount this like it's nothing would better understand if patient 0 landed in their city or state.

The fact that Ebola has NEVER spread in the United States before this administration, their proven incompetence to handle crises, and the fact that they all too often prefer to make something political over doing what is in the best interests of the country not only pisses people off, but also worries them.

So, hype? No. More like well-grounded concern.

Whereas the Republicans would wave their magic wand and the issue would be solved. Sure. If they had their way there'd probably be a lot fewer people that had healthcare (even before the whole Obamacare stuff started), and the virus would have a better chance of spreading.

No one is saying the Republicans could or would of stopped it from entering or spreading, I'm just pointing out the facts.

No, you're pointing out your opinions.

(10-14-2014 02:35 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 02:33 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 02:30 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 01:57 PM)Kronke Wrote:  I'm not an alarmist, but I also am not going to stick my head in the sand like all is well. Perhaps those that want to discount this like it's nothing would better understand if patient 0 landed in their city or state.

The fact that Ebola has NEVER spread in the United States before this administration, their proven incompetence to handle crises, and the fact that they all too often prefer to make something political over doing what is in the best interests of the country not only pisses people off, but also worries them.

So, hype? No. More like well-grounded concern.

Whereas the Republicans would wave their magic wand and the issue would be solved. Sure. If they had their way there'd probably be a lot fewer people that had healthcare (even before the whole Obamacare stuff started), and the virus would have a better chance of spreading.

No one is saying the Republicans could or would of stopped it from entering or spreading, I'm just pointing out the facts.

No, you're pointing out your opinions.

I'll give to you that it's a majority (58%) opinion that the Obama administration is incompetent, but is it not a fact that Ebola was just previously transmitted in the USA for the first time?

(10-14-2014 02:31 PM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  It's not you Owl.. I said a nurse who treated her relative should not have been sent back to work after 8 days... Thats what set him off

Bull, this thread wasn't directed at anyone, It was just putting things into perspective.

Jon Stewart nailed this last week too.
http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/ysfr9u...n-the-u-s-

And as far as 'setting me off', that was only because of your insistence without any evidence or personal medical knowledge that the CDC didn't follow every safety precaution in clearing Youngor Jallah, the relative of Thomas Duncan who died, to return to work.

(10-14-2014 02:41 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 02:35 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 02:33 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 02:30 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 01:57 PM)Kronke Wrote:  I'm not an alarmist, but I also am not going to stick my head in the sand like all is well. Perhaps those that want to discount this like it's nothing would better understand if patient 0 landed in their city or state.

The fact that Ebola has NEVER spread in the United States before this administration, their proven incompetence to handle crises, and the fact that they all too often prefer to make something political over doing what is in the best interests of the country not only pisses people off, but also worries them.

So, hype? No. More like well-grounded concern.

Whereas the Republicans would wave their magic wand and the issue would be solved. Sure. If they had their way there'd probably be a lot fewer people that had healthcare (even before the whole Obamacare stuff started), and the virus would have a better chance of spreading.

No one is saying the Republicans could or would of stopped it from entering or spreading, I'm just pointing out the facts.

No, you're pointing out your opinions.

I'll give to you that it's a majority (58%) opinion that the Obama administration is incompetent, but is it not a fact that Ebola was just previously transmitted in the USA for the first time?

That's the one and only fact you stated. Everything else was opinion.

(10-14-2014 01:57 PM)Kronke Wrote:  I'm not an alarmist, but I also am not going to stick my head in the sand like all is well. Perhaps those that want to discount this like it's nothing would better understand if patient 0 landed in their city or state.

The fact that Ebola has NEVER spread in the United States before this administration, their proven incompetence to handle crises, and the fact that they all too often prefer to make something political over doing what is in the best interests of the country not only pisses people off, but also worries them.

So, hype? No. More like well-grounded concern.

Outside of the original outbreak in 1976, this latest (and only real severe outbreak) just began in March of 2014. Hard to lay this at the Obama administrations feet if your being honest. Ebola has been known of for decades.

More perspective:
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/h...ology.html

Lot of hype, Woke up this morning and blasting on every local news channel, " Local Woman Admitted to Local Hosptial for Ebola". Check back online a couple of minutes ago, Nothing, Nada, No ebola for her. Good thing for her, just more hype for the rest of us.

(10-14-2014 01:57 PM)Kronke Wrote:  The fact that Ebola has NEVER spread in the United States before this administration, their proven incompetence to handle crises, and the fact that they all too often prefer to make something political over doing what is in the best interests of the country not only pisses people off, but also worries them.

Ebola has never spread anywhere like it has this year. That it "spread" to Spain and the US is a direct consequence of the spread in Africa. It is not fair to blame Obama for that. I don't trust the administration to be competent for much of anything, but at this stage, I can't fault their handling of it.

edit: and I understand that doesn't mean they will continue to not **** it up. They have more than enough opportunity to do that, and more than enough incompetence and proven poor decision making to pull it out.

(10-14-2014 02:31 PM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  It's not you Owl.. I said a nurse who treated her relative should not have been sent back to work after 8 days... Thats what set him off

I didn't really take his post to be directed at anyone in particular, but I did make this post earlier, and this thread was an opportunity to post a supporting article for it.

(10-14-2014 10:41 AM)I45owl Wrote:  The biggest reasons for a travel ban are the nature of infectious disease - exponential growth. By all accounts, this is going to blow up West Africa - Liberia's economy is going down the toilet and this could spread to millions in the region and worldwide. This one case in Dallas ain't going to cause that, but if you have it grow to hundreds of thousands or millions in Africa, then it will spread outside the continent (i.e. more than the handful of cases that you see now).

(10-14-2014 03:24 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 01:57 PM)Kronke Wrote:  The fact that Ebola has NEVER spread in the United States before this administration, their proven incompetence to handle crises, and the fact that they all too often prefer to make something political over doing what is in the best interests of the country not only pisses people off, but also worries them.

Ebola has never spread anywhere like it has this year. That it "spread" to Spain and the US is a direct consequence of the spread in Africa. It is not fair to blame Obama for that. I don't trust the administration to be competent for much of anything, but at this stage, I can't fault their handling of it.

edit: and I understand that doesn't mean they will continue to not **** it up. They have more than enough opportunity to do that, and more than enough incompetence and proven poor decision making to pull it out.

Yeah I don't blame Obama for Ebola. This outbreak is worse due to where it occured geographically in Africa and modern aviation's links to that part of Africa.

(10-14-2014 03:24 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 01:57 PM)Kronke Wrote:  The fact that Ebola has NEVER spread in the United States before this administration, their proven incompetence to handle crises, and the fact that they all too often prefer to make something political over doing what is in the best interests of the country not only pisses people off, but also worries them.

Ebola has never spread anywhere like it has this year. That it "spread" to Spain and the US is a direct consequence of the spread in Africa. It is not fair to blame Obama for that. I don't trust the administration to be competent for much of anything, but at this stage, I can't fault their handling of it.

edit: and I understand that doesn't mean they will continue to not **** it up. They have more than enough opportunity to do that, and more than enough incompetence and proven poor decision making to pull it out.

Pretty much the same way I feel. I'm not confident, but I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt at this point.

I do have concerns that they won't do everything in their power to stop it, for some politically correct/bullsh*t reason, i.e. not stopping commercial flights from Africa because the CDC director says the aid workers wouldn't go in confidence (in fear of not being allowed back in), when it's common knowledge that they don't fly commercial.

I'm also worried they won't ban flights now or in the future again because of a political reason -- not wanting to admit they were wrong not to do it to begin with.

(10-14-2014 03:31 PM)Kronke Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 03:24 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 01:57 PM)Kronke Wrote:  The fact that Ebola has NEVER spread in the United States before this administration, their proven incompetence to handle crises, and the fact that they all too often prefer to make something political over doing what is in the best interests of the country not only pisses people off, but also worries them.

Ebola has never spread anywhere like it has this year. That it "spread" to Spain and the US is a direct consequence of the spread in Africa. It is not fair to blame Obama for that. I don't trust the administration to be competent for much of anything, but at this stage, I can't fault their handling of it.

edit: and I understand that doesn't mean they will continue to not **** it up. They have more than enough opportunity to do that, and more than enough incompetence and proven poor decision making to pull it out.

Pretty much the same way I feel. I'm not confident, but I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt at this point.

I do have concerns that they won't do everything in their power to stop it, for some politically correct/bullsh*t reason, i.e. not stopping commercial flights from Africa because the CDC director says the aid workers wouldn't go in confidence (in fear of not being allowed back in), when it's common knowledge that they don't fly commercial.

Huh? Please elaborate. Thanks.

And these are the word of the CDC head. So not sure where you're getting the "confidence" part from?

Quote:"Though we might wish we can seal ourselves off from the world, there are Americans who have the right of return and many other people that have the right to enter this country," Dr. Thomas Frieden told a press conference. "We're not going to be able to get to zero risk no matter what we do unless we control the outbreak in West Africa."

Frieden added that a travel ban could make it difficult to get medical supplies and aid workers to the affected regions in West Africa.

"We really need to be clear that we don't inadvertently increase the risk to people in this country by making it harder for us to respond to the needs in those countries," he said, "by making it harder to get assistance in and therefore those outbreaks would become worse, go on longer, and paradoxically, something that we did to try and protect ourselves might actually increase our risk."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/10/...us-points/

We're being told that we can't stop commercial flights, because that would inhibit the aid workers' ability to get into and out of Africa. They don't fly commercial, they fly on UN, WHO, or other government/private planes. So, that's bullsh*t. I don't really have the time to find the quotes (maybe later), but I remember watching the interview.

Bottom line, ban commercial flights. Allow the aid workers to fly, and quarantine them for 3 weeks when reentering. Done.

Also, it's not some paradox. You don't allow Ebola in to stop Ebola. It's just political spin, and I'm sorry if you're actually buying it.