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AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
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OkaForPrez Offline
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Post: #1
AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
Figured you guys might enjoy this analysis I did from a UConn perspective:

Intermingled in trash-heap of a thread about the Big East conference over on the realignment board is a question about the bottom of the American conference and its impact on UConn's RPI (and therefore tournament seeding) go forward. I think its an interesting topic as we get close to this season to examine the bottom of the league and the coaching changes they've made as well as their scheduling and recruiting.


.jpg  2014RPI.jpg (Size: 22.73 KB / Downloads: 18)

Here's the ugly picture from last year heading into the tourney. Gone unfortunately is Louisville and the two games to bolster our SOS. Also Gone is Rutgers, mercifully, so we need to focus on Houston, Temple, UCF, USF and the additions of Tulsa (70), Tulane(220) and ECU(227).

Before we start evaluating the competency of these teams and their coaches, let's first take a look to see if they are improving their scheduling. This is the "lowest hanging fruit" for improving their RPI's. Houston, UCF and South Florida all had pretty abysmal SOS's last year as did ECU and Tulane.

Houston OOC:

The Worst:

Houston Baptist (343)
Abeline Cristian (344)
Miss Valley State (345)
** Houston has scheduled 3 of the bottom 9 in the RPI last year. Let that sink in. This is an atrocious act of damage to the conference.
Texas Pan American (311)
Rice (297)

Top:
Harvard (46)
Boise State (81).

Houston is still contributing the poison that is over-indulging on bottom of the barrel schools. Someone needs to ask them about it at AAC media day.

UCF OOC:

The worst:

ECK (d2)
Bethune Cookman (346)
Illinois Chicago (317)
Stetson (311)
Georgia Southern (309)
Southeastern Lousiana (303)
Florida Atlantic (271)

Slightly Better:
Detroit (235)

Decent:
South Carolina Upstate (161)
Davidson (129)

Marquee:
FSU (54)

UCF is part of the problem too. More garbage all over their OOC and even less to offset it by way of marquee match ups in the top half.


USF OOC:

Georgia Southern (309)
Southeastern Lousiana (303)
Jackson State (299)
Jacksonville (283)
Hofstra (279)
Detroit (235)

Bowling Green (198)
UAB (153)
Seton Hall (130)
Alabama (108)

FSU (54)
NC State (52)

USF's schedule indicates they've been at this a bit longer than our CUSA friends. There is less pure garbage at the bottom, a bit wider range of more win-able mid range games with brand cache' and then two really strong match ups at the top.


Tulsa OOC:

Abeline Cristian (344)
SE Oklahoma State (D2)


Incarnate (228)

Auburn (186)
AR Little Rock (182)
Oral Roberts (170)
LA Lafayatte (88)
Missouri State (87)

Wichita St (4)
Creighton (11)
Oklahoma (26)

Tulsa!!!! Welcome to the conference you sneaky sons of b!tches. This is a baller OOC schedule you've got in your back pocket to go with your NCAA Cinderella slipper last year and your Frank Haith Hire. Wish you still had Danny at the wheel but I'll be damned you guys are already putting Houston and UCF to shame. I think I like you. You didn't really belong on this list because your SOS was a respectable 70 last year, but I wanted to call you out so everyone can see how it's done.

Tulane OOC:

SU (d2)
Miss Valley State (345)
Southeastern Lousiana (303)
Jackson State (299)
Loyola - IL (292)
Savanah State (273)

Miss St. (244)

Southern (176)
Wake Forest (115)
Washington (104)
St. Johns (77)

Tulane looks like they are trying at the bottom but there is still a little too much wood there at the top for my liking.

ECU OOC:

UNCW (d2)
VULYN (d2)
NC Greensboro (298)
CCSU (295) * Our worst game

Florida A&M (289)
NC Wilmington (282)
Florida Atlantic (271)


James Madison (239)
NC Ashville (203)

Wisconsin Green Bay (67)

UNC (25)


ECU has the UNC game as a nice SOS buffer but the two D2 games plus not a whole lot going on in the mid range means this schedule is still a net detriment to the league.


Did SMU learn their lesson?

Midwestern State(D2)
Lamar (342)
Illinois Chicago (317)
Monmouth (293)

Texas Southern (231)
Eastern Washington (224)

Wyoming (134)
UCSB (106)
Indiana (102)

Arkansas (66)
Gonzaga (19)
Michigan (10)

They didn't get rid of all of their extra fat cup cakes but they've snuck in a good amount of midrange RPI W's and plenty of headliners at the top. Should be in great shape this year, hope they get the Zags and and UM Scalps for the conference.

In Summary:

From a scheduling perspective Tulsa looks Big Boy ready and SMU has upped their game after their post season snub. Houston and UCF should know better by now but they still have a ton of absolute trash in their cupcakes. Tulane is starting to pull the bottom of their schedule out of the 300+ abyss but not doing enough in the top of their OOC schedule and ECU outside of their 2? D2 games isn't terrible.

The bottom of the conference needs to do more in the scheduling department though, and if I was a member of the AAC media I would be asking each coach explicitly what they are doing by way of scheduling to improve the RPI of the conference, especially Houston and UCF. Next post will be around the coaching changes at the bottom with a look at Haith, Sampson and Antigua and their inaugural recruiting classes.

Here's UConn for Context:

CCSU (295)
Coppin State (265)
Charleston (243)

Bryant (173)
Yale (149)
Columbia (125)

Stanford (40)
Texas (37)
Duke (8)
Florida (1)
10-14-2014 12:25 PM
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Knightshift Offline
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Post: #2
RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
Trust me I don't know of a single UCF fan that is happy with this schedule. It's one big collective *YAWN*, and the attendance will, sadly, reflect that.
10-14-2014 12:43 PM
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stxrunner Offline
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Post: #3
RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
Here is Cincy's for comparison purposes. We have been and will continue to schedule very aggressively out of conference. The biggest key for OOC is scheduling buy games against teams that aren't the absolute bottom of the barrel. Those bottom teams just crush your RPI and SOS.

St Francis (PA) (295)
Eastern Illinois (286)
Wagner (214)

Stony Brook (169)
Morehead St (144)

North Carolina Central (99)
Middle Tennessee (64)
Xavier (56)
NC State (55)
Nebraska (53)
VCU (19)
Creighton/Ole Miss (17)/(88)
San Diego St (13)
10-14-2014 12:59 PM
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JHG722 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
Temple:

Kansas (3)
Villanova (5)
Duke (8)
St. Joe's (31)
Stanford (40)/UNLV (109)
LA Tech (58)
Delaware (65)
LaSalle (97)
Towson (100)
American (114)
Penn (286)
LIU (301)
Delaware State (332)
10-14-2014 01:45 PM
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OkaForPrez Offline
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Post: #5
RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
(10-14-2014 01:45 PM)JHG722 Wrote:  Temple:

Kansas (3)
Villanova (5)
Duke (8)
St. Joe's (31)
Stanford (40)/UNLV (109)
LA Tech (58)
Delaware (65)
LaSalle (97)
Towson (100)
American (114)
Penn (286)
LIU (301)
Delaware State (332)

Yeah Temple has always done a nice job, I accidentally included them in the post lead in but purposely excluded them from the naughty list. Hope they return to form this year.
10-14-2014 01:55 PM
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invisiblehand Offline
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Post: #6
RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
Thanks for giving tulsa props. I think that the rpi's from last year won't mean as much as the actual upcoming season... Take our schedule for example:

Creighton won't be as strong without Doug McDermott
Auburn will be much, much better with high level transfers and Bruce Pearl.
Wichita state might not be a legit top 10 team, but they're certainly top 25.
OU will be improved as well.
10-14-2014 02:57 PM
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OkaForPrez Offline
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RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
(10-14-2014 02:57 PM)invisiblehand Wrote:  Thanks for giving tulsa props. I think that the rpi's from last year won't mean as much as the actual upcoming season... Take our schedule for example:

Creighton won't be as strong without Doug McDermott
Auburn will be much, much better with high level transfers and Bruce Pearl.
Wichita state might not be a legit top 10 team, but they're certainly top 25.
OU will be improved as well.

Definitely an imperfect system but the best available. It's not as much about the teams at the top as the teams at the bottom. Every school in the conference has to work to replace 300 level RPI teams with 100 Level RPI Teams.

You can work a few in here and there, but the schools in the bottom half of the league that are 5-6 deep on these schools are going to have SOS's in the mid 100's and really penalize everyone that has to play them twice.

It's the game that all the big boys play. They know a win against a middling big boy or a quality low major counts infinitely more than the Abeline Christians of the world. Its RPI suicide to schedule these teams.
10-14-2014 03:03 PM
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Niner National Offline
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Post: #8
RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
(10-14-2014 01:45 PM)JHG722 Wrote:  Temple:

Kansas (3)
Villanova (5)
Duke (8)
St. Joe's (31)
Stanford (40)/UNLV (109)
LA Tech (58)
Delaware (65)
LaSalle (97)
Towson (100)
American (114)
Penn (286)
LIU (301)
Delaware State (332)
I've always been really impressed with Temple's ability to put together high quality OOC schedules....and actually do well with it.
10-14-2014 03:05 PM
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CitrusUCF Offline
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RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
(10-14-2014 12:43 PM)Knightshift Wrote:  Trust me I don't know of a single UCF fan that is happy with this schedule. It's one big collective *YAWN*, and the attendance will, sadly, reflect that.

Going for a positive season and 20+ wins, which will be better than getting 10 wins total playing marquee OOC opponents, mostly on the road.
10-14-2014 03:11 PM
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Niner National Offline
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RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
(10-14-2014 03:11 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(10-14-2014 12:43 PM)Knightshift Wrote:  Trust me I don't know of a single UCF fan that is happy with this schedule. It's one big collective *YAWN*, and the attendance will, sadly, reflect that.

Going for a positive season and 20+ wins, which will be better than getting 10 wins total playing marquee OOC opponents, mostly on the road.

Ultimately, what does that do for you though? USM and La Tech did that the last two years and the selection committee basically said "your wins don't matter because you didn't beat anyone"
10-14-2014 03:16 PM
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CitrusUCF Offline
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RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
(10-14-2014 03:16 PM)Niner National Wrote:  
(10-14-2014 03:11 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(10-14-2014 12:43 PM)Knightshift Wrote:  Trust me I don't know of a single UCF fan that is happy with this schedule. It's one big collective *YAWN*, and the attendance will, sadly, reflect that.

Going for a positive season and 20+ wins, which will be better than getting 10 wins total playing marquee OOC opponents, mostly on the road.

Ultimately, what does that do for you though? USM and La Tech did that the last two years and the selection committee basically said "your wins don't matter because you didn't beat anyone"

We're not trying to get in the tourney this year. We only have 10 scholarship players and will rely on freshmen to score. The conference RPI will be better with a 20-10 UCF with no quality wins than a 10-20 UCF with a bunch of quality losses (and no quality wins) though.
10-14-2014 03:33 PM
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pesik Offline
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Post: #12
RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
(10-14-2014 03:33 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(10-14-2014 03:16 PM)Niner National Wrote:  
(10-14-2014 03:11 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(10-14-2014 12:43 PM)Knightshift Wrote:  Trust me I don't know of a single UCF fan that is happy with this schedule. It's one big collective *YAWN*, and the attendance will, sadly, reflect that.

Going for a positive season and 20+ wins, which will be better than getting 10 wins total playing marquee OOC opponents, mostly on the road.

Ultimately, what does that do for you though? USM and La Tech did that the last two years and the selection committee basically said "your wins don't matter because you didn't beat anyone"

We're not trying to get in the tourney this year. We only have 10 scholarship players and will rely on freshmen to score. The conference RPI will be better with a 20-10 UCF with no quality wins than a 10-20 UCF with a bunch of quality losses (and no quality wins) though.

that isnt necessarily true at all..
La Salle 15-16 rpi rank=97
Stony Brook 22-11 rpi rank=165

and mentallity like that is what will sink this ship, rightnow, ucf is enjoying the benefit of being in a elite league, recruting dramatically better than before, having the privilage of having every conference game televised and increasing the ucf national brand.

if everyone went with this mentatlty this ship would sink for everyone...it will start looking like c-usa with numerous 20 win teams and no atlarges every year, we all have to set a bar a bar where everyone has to live up to...starting with the schedule
temple remained a top 200 rpi team last year despite only winning 9 games becuase they scheduled better.

also there is middle grund for everything..no one needs to play a all top 25 rpi schedule but find where it will still be accappetable and easy enough to manuvear ..something i wish houston would do
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2014 03:58 PM by pesik.)
10-14-2014 03:56 PM
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GO Coogs GO!!! Offline
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RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
We get it our schedule was (and is this year) bad.

With Sampson in the fold I am confident that those numbers, the talent on the roster, and the level of success will go exponentially up.

Sampson had little to no time to recruit or do anything about our schedule this year. We can thank the previous administration for leaving the cabinets bare in talent and scheduling.

If we are having this same conversation in 2015 I am right there with you. Given his track record I don't think that will happen though.

Winning cures all. All we have to do is go out and win. If we (hopefully) make the tourney and make a run that number will be irrelevant at the end of the year.
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2014 04:49 PM by GO Coogs GO!!!.)
10-14-2014 04:49 PM
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CitrusUCF Offline
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RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
(10-14-2014 03:56 PM)pesik Wrote:  
(10-14-2014 03:33 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(10-14-2014 03:16 PM)Niner National Wrote:  
(10-14-2014 03:11 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  
(10-14-2014 12:43 PM)Knightshift Wrote:  Trust me I don't know of a single UCF fan that is happy with this schedule. It's one big collective *YAWN*, and the attendance will, sadly, reflect that.

Going for a positive season and 20+ wins, which will be better than getting 10 wins total playing marquee OOC opponents, mostly on the road.

Ultimately, what does that do for you though? USM and La Tech did that the last two years and the selection committee basically said "your wins don't matter because you didn't beat anyone"

We're not trying to get in the tourney this year. We only have 10 scholarship players and will rely on freshmen to score. The conference RPI will be better with a 20-10 UCF with no quality wins than a 10-20 UCF with a bunch of quality losses (and no quality wins) though.

that isnt necessarily true at all..
La Salle 15-16 rpi rank=97
Stony Brook 22-11 rpi rank=165

and mentallity like that is what will sink this ship, rightnow, ucf is enjoying the benefit of being in a elite league, recruting dramatically better than before, having the privilage of having every conference game televised and increasing the ucf national brand.

if everyone went with this mentatlty this ship would sink for everyone...it will start looking like c-usa with numerous 20 win teams and no atlarges every year, we all have to set a bar a bar where everyone has to live up to...starting with the schedule
temple remained a top 200 rpi team last year despite only winning 9 games becuase they scheduled better.

also there is middle grund for everything..no one needs to play a all top 25 rpi schedule but find where it will still be accappetable and easy enough to manuvear ..something i wish houston would do

UCF is coming off of sanctions and in a big rebuilding year. I would expect next year to see a better schedule.
10-14-2014 06:05 PM
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sfink16 Offline
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RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
(10-14-2014 01:55 PM)OkaForPrez Wrote:  
(10-14-2014 01:45 PM)JHG722 Wrote:  Temple:

Kansas (3)
Villanova (5)
Duke (8)
St. Joe's (31)
Stanford (40)/UNLV (109)
LA Tech (58)
Delaware (65)
LaSalle (97)
Towson (100)
American (114)
Penn (286)
LIU (301)
Delaware State (332)

Yeah Temple has always done a nice job, I accidentally included them in the post lead in but purposely excluded them from the naughty list. Hope they return to form this year.

Yes, Temple has done a good job.

As part of the Big 5 with Villanova, St. Joeseph's, LaSalle, and Penn, that part of the schedule remains constant. Fortunately Villanova is mostly highly competitive and St. Joeseph's is usually competitive.

Adding Duke, Kansas, and Stanford rounds out a nice OOC schedule. Hopefully Temple can win more of those games then last year.
10-14-2014 07:02 PM
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T-Town Cane Offline
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Post: #16
RE: AAC Basketbal OOC Scheduling
(10-14-2014 02:57 PM)invisiblehand Wrote:  Thanks for giving tulsa props. I think that the rpi's from last year won't mean as much as the actual upcoming season... Take our schedule for example:

Creighton won't be as strong without Doug McDermott
Auburn will be much, much better with high level transfers and Bruce Pearl.
Wichita state might not be a legit top 10 team, but they're certainly top 25.
OU will be improved as well.

One thing I would add to this is we will either play Oklahoma St (19) or Oregon St.(191) depending on who wins or losses in the first round of the MGM Grand tournament. I am glad we didn't try to pad the schedule, it shows that we have faith in this team.
10-14-2014 07:17 PM
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