(10-15-2014 11:16 AM)I45owl Wrote: (10-15-2014 10:45 AM)mrbig Wrote: I agree 100%. Marshall is good, no doubt. But Marshall is not better than ND or A&M, particularly their lines or depth. So along with some of Rice's improvements, I fully expect Rice to be competitive at Marshall with a decent chance of a win. Rice will deservedly be in the underdog, but we are also the defending champs, and I think you can reasonably argue that the only positions where Rice is worse in 2014 than 2013 are CB and K. Driphus looks better than McHargue. Our WR's look better. I think both lines look better. I think the other positions look mostly the same. As usual, the game probably comes down to Rice's ability to get pressure on the opposing QB while not having big breakdowns in coverage by the safeties.
The kicking position is interesting. I think that - as good as Boswell was - our conservative approach to the kicking game (i.e. long field goal attempts) meant that his strengths weren't always taken advantage of. Even with an outstanding kicker, the odds are such that sometimes the decision to go for a 4th down attempt or kick - say a 40 yard FG - may be a wash in the long run. I think at this point now, the biggest difference that we'll see from last year is the success rate from 30-40 yards, where perhaps last year we'd kick from 40-50 and make most of them, this year, we may go for it on 4th down from that range and wind up scoring touchdowns 40% by the end of the drive of the time. The other big advantage that Boswell gave Rice is the long kickoffs, and I think we have that from Hairston (21 returns for 446 yards last year, 9 for 207 this year halfway through the season). So, as much as I love and miss Boswell, and hope to see him have success in the NFL, I don't think that Rice as a team is really going to suffer this year at kicker. It will look different. And, there may be a game where a late field goal comes into play and I'll scramble to find this post and delete it before anyone notices. But, I don't think we're bad off at this stage. Punting is probably skewed by McHargue punting, but the average is better this year, the net is worse.
Good point about Boswell, but it is worth remembering that Hairston missed a 46-yd attempt late in the 2nd quarter against ODU. ODU quickly turned that around and, despite incurring 25-yds of penalties on the next drive, scored a TD just before half.
Not to get sidetracked or dredge up the recent past, but the last ~3 minutes of the 2nd quarter against ODU could really haunt Rice. Look at everything that Rice could have done better (retrospect-o-scope alert!). To set up the last 3 minutes, remember that DJ was out and Stehling was in. Rice had just marched down the field, with consecutive runs of 4, 4, 9, 6, 7, 6, and 0 yards without even attempting a pass. Then Stehling completed a 3rd-and-4 pass to Wright for the 1st down, giving Rice 1st-and-10 from the ODU 35 with ~3 minutes left. Rice is down 7 just before the half and on the edge of FG range, so this is a pretty critical series. (I don't have the video to look at the exact plays).
(1) 1st-down handoff to Hamilton for 4 yds. I like calling a running play because Rice had been successful and to burn some clock. But why Hamilton? He's quite talented, but he's also 3rd on the depth chart (maybe 4th, depending on where you place Bob). To begin a critical series, you have the 2nd string QB handing off to the 3rd/4th string RB. No guarantees Davis or Dillard to better, but seems an odd time to give Hamilton his 1st carry of the game. At this point in the game, Davis had 7 carries for 47 yds (6.7 ypc) and Dillard had 7 carries for 34 yds (4.9 ypc).
(2) 2nd-and-6. Handoff to Hamilton for 2 yds. Again, given down/distance, field position, time remaining, and prior success, I'm fine with a running play. But why Hamilton? Not saying that to knock him at all, but the coaches (not me) have him 3rd/4th on the depth chart. ODU calls a timeout, so Rice has plenty of time to think about the critical next play!
(3) 3rd-and-4, 2:01 left in half at the ODU 29. Incomplete pass to Wright. I'm guessing this is one of the playcalls that drove Walt (and others, including me) nuts. I've got 6 reasons this was a bad playcall. Remember, the coaches had a timeout to make this decision. (i) This should have been 4-down territory because it is a tough FG attempt. If the coaches view this as 4-down territory, running is a much better option. (ii) This is 4-down territory because Rice clearly needs lots of points (ODU has 21 points and is throwing almost at-will). (iii) A run is better than a pass because Rice is fine either burning some more time or an ODU timeout. Rice has plenty of time to handle the remaining 29 yards, regardless of what happens on this 3rd-down. (iv) A run is better than a pass because Davis/Dillard have been running well, extremely likely Rice gains 4+ yards with 2 runs. (v) A run is better than a pass because a sack would make a tough FG either extremely difficult or impossible. (vi) A run is better than a pass because it decreases the chance of a turnover (fewer fumbles per carry than interceptions per pass attempt).
Of course, its easier to disagree with the playcall after an incompletion, missed FG, and then quick score by ODU. But on paper, I think literally everything was pointing to handling the ball to Davis or Dillard on this play. Maybe having Boswell would have changed the equation for this playcall, but I doubt it. But he would have been more likely to make the FG.
