(10-14-2014 12:48 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 11:26 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-12-2014 07:01 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  We are getting closer to the committee rankings, in the meantime I'll use the AP Poll.

Rose: #2 FSU vs #3 Ole Miss.
Sugar: #1 Mississippi St vs #4 Baylor

Other bowls could be matched up differently by the committee but at least show the team that would be in the major bowls.

Orange: #24 Clemson vs #5 Notre Dame (ACC champ repl vs Highest SEC/B1G/ND)
Cotton: #8 MSU vs #6 Auburn (B1G champ vs. At Large#1)
Fiesta: #9 Oregon vs #7 Alabama (Pac 12 champs vs At Large #2)
Peach: #10 Georgia vs #18 ECU (At Large#3 vs G5).

G5 = Team with highest ranking (assuming they will be the conference champ) = #18 ECU.
[Marshall creeping closer to ECU @ #25 and Colorado St with 1 loss only getting some votes as the 3 G5 team]

Left out: #11 Oklahoma, #11 TCU

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/overview
Base of fulfillment of contracts first then highest teams available.

Clemson with the 2nd ACC team highest votes gets the OB spot for now.

Marshall isn't creeping closer. They both jumped about the same amount of spots. Marshall just happened to go from just outside the poll to just inside it, while ECU jumped a few spots in the polls.

Marshall is creeping closer.
Week 6 rank difference ECU +8
Week 7 rank difference ECU +7

Closing up one spot is creeping.

If you look at the # of votes- ECU's edge over Marshall increased this past week. That's not creeping.

(10-14-2014 12:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 12:48 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 11:26 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-12-2014 07:01 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  We are getting closer to the committee rankings, in the meantime I'll use the AP Poll.

Rose: #2 FSU vs #3 Ole Miss.
Sugar: #1 Mississippi St vs #4 Baylor

Other bowls could be matched up differently by the committee but at least show the team that would be in the major bowls.

Orange: #24 Clemson vs #5 Notre Dame (ACC champ repl vs Highest SEC/B1G/ND)
Cotton: #8 MSU vs #6 Auburn (B1G champ vs. At Large#1)
Fiesta: #9 Oregon vs #7 Alabama (Pac 12 champs vs At Large #2)
Peach: #10 Georgia vs #18 ECU (At Large#3 vs G5).

G5 = Team with highest ranking (assuming they will be the conference champ) = #18 ECU.
[Marshall creeping closer to ECU @ #25 and Colorado St with 1 loss only getting some votes as the 3 G5 team]

Left out: #11 Oklahoma, #11 TCU

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/overview
Base of fulfillment of contracts first then highest teams available.

Clemson with the 2nd ACC team highest votes gets the OB spot for now.

Marshall isn't creeping closer. They both jumped about the same amount of spots. Marshall just happened to go from just outside the poll to just inside it, while ECU jumped a few spots in the polls.

Marshall is creeping closer.
Week 6 rank difference ECU +8
Week 7 rank difference ECU +7

Closing up one spot is creeping.

If you look at the # of votes- ECU's edge over Marshall increased this past week. That's not creeping.

Not to mention, if you are going by the coaches poll, ECU increased it's lead.

Week 7: ECU 19th, 451 votes
Week 8: ECU 16th, 518 votes

ECU up 3 spots and 67 votes

Week 7: Marshall 26th, 98 votes
Week 8: Marshall 24th, 153 votes

Marshall up 2 spots and 55 votes.

ECU increased lead in coaches poll in BOTH spots up and total votes.

Marshall is not creeping up.

(10-14-2014 12:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 12:48 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 11:26 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-12-2014 07:01 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  We are getting closer to the committee rankings, in the meantime I'll use the AP Poll.

Rose: #2 FSU vs #3 Ole Miss.
Sugar: #1 Mississippi St vs #4 Baylor

Other bowls could be matched up differently by the committee but at least show the team that would be in the major bowls.

Orange: #24 Clemson vs #5 Notre Dame (ACC champ repl vs Highest SEC/B1G/ND)
Cotton: #8 MSU vs #6 Auburn (B1G champ vs. At Large#1)
Fiesta: #9 Oregon vs #7 Alabama (Pac 12 champs vs At Large #2)
Peach: #10 Georgia vs #18 ECU (At Large#3 vs G5).

G5 = Team with highest ranking (assuming they will be the conference champ) = #18 ECU.
[Marshall creeping closer to ECU @ #25 and Colorado St with 1 loss only getting some votes as the 3 G5 team]

Left out: #11 Oklahoma, #11 TCU

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/overview
Base of fulfillment of contracts first then highest teams available.

Clemson with the 2nd ACC team highest votes gets the OB spot for now.

Marshall isn't creeping closer. They both jumped about the same amount of spots. Marshall just happened to go from just outside the poll to just inside it, while ECU jumped a few spots in the polls.

Marshall is creeping closer.
Week 6 rank difference ECU +8
Week 7 rank difference ECU +7

Closing up one spot is creeping.

If you look at the # of votes- ECU's edge over Marshall increased this past week. That's not creeping.

I did and notice it but its quite irrelevant because the focus is on the rank # not the amount of votes. If you want to look at another way via vote. ECU gain 23.3% more votes from the previous week and Marshall gained 52.7% more votes than the previous week. More than double of ECU percentage wise.

At some point, Marshall is going to have to close that gap though. ECU went up by 35 more AP votes and 12 more coaches votes this week. Until that starts changing- Marshall won't be able to get close even.

(10-14-2014 01:15 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 12:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 12:48 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 11:26 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-12-2014 07:01 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  We are getting closer to the committee rankings, in the meantime I'll use the AP Poll.

Rose: #2 FSU vs #3 Ole Miss.
Sugar: #1 Mississippi St vs #4 Baylor

Other bowls could be matched up differently by the committee but at least show the team that would be in the major bowls.

Orange: #24 Clemson vs #5 Notre Dame (ACC champ repl vs Highest SEC/B1G/ND)
Cotton: #8 MSU vs #6 Auburn (B1G champ vs. At Large#1)
Fiesta: #9 Oregon vs #7 Alabama (Pac 12 champs vs At Large #2)
Peach: #10 Georgia vs #18 ECU (At Large#3 vs G5).

G5 = Team with highest ranking (assuming they will be the conference champ) = #18 ECU.
[Marshall creeping closer to ECU @ #25 and Colorado St with 1 loss only getting some votes as the 3 G5 team]

Left out: #11 Oklahoma, #11 TCU

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/overview
Base of fulfillment of contracts first then highest teams available.

Clemson with the 2nd ACC team highest votes gets the OB spot for now.

Marshall isn't creeping closer. They both jumped about the same amount of spots. Marshall just happened to go from just outside the poll to just inside it, while ECU jumped a few spots in the polls.

Marshall is creeping closer.
Week 6 rank difference ECU +8
Week 7 rank difference ECU +7

Closing up one spot is creeping.

If you look at the # of votes- ECU's edge over Marshall increased this past week. That's not creeping.

I did and notice it but its quite irrelevant because the focus is on the rank # not the amount of votes. If you want to look at another way via vote. ECU gain 23.3% more votes from the previous week and Marshall gained 52.7% more votes than the previous week. More than double of ECU percentage wise.

Again, Marshall actually LOST ground in number of votes in AP poll AND both number of votes and spots moved up in the coaches poll. That's our point. Marshall did not creep closer...they lost ground.

(10-14-2014 01:27 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 01:15 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 12:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 12:48 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 11:26 AM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Marshall isn't creeping closer. They both jumped about the same amount of spots. Marshall just happened to go from just outside the poll to just inside it, while ECU jumped a few spots in the polls.

Marshall is creeping closer.
Week 6 rank difference ECU +8
Week 7 rank difference ECU +7

Closing up one spot is creeping.

If you look at the # of votes- ECU's edge over Marshall increased this past week. That's not creeping.

I did and notice it but its quite irrelevant because the focus is on the rank # not the amount of votes. If you want to look at another way via vote. ECU gain 23.3% more votes from the previous week and Marshall gained 52.7% more votes than the previous week. More than double of ECU percentage wise.

Again, Marshall actually LOST ground in number of votes in AP poll AND both number of votes and spots moved up in the coaches poll. That's our point. Marshall did not creep closer...they lost ground.

If you say so....
ECU could have 1000 votes and Marshall 10 but if ECU #19 and Marshall is #20....it doesn't make a difference because the rank is what matters.

One thing I think is kind of important- the schedule once the committee releases their initial ratings..
ECU- Temple, Cincy, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF
Mar- So Miss, Rice, UAB, W Kentucky, CUSA title game

Especially if UCF is ranked by the last game- it's a big edge for ECU. Very tough for Marshall to gain much ground on ECU with their remaining schedule once the initial committee ratings are released.

(10-14-2014 12:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 12:38 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 09:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Yeah a 1 loss FSU is in deep trouble. No way they are in over ND(if ND is the team that gave them the loss), 0-1 loss SEC champ, or 0 Loss Baylor/1 loss Oklahoma. The question would be 1 loss FSU or 1 loss Big Ten team or 1 loss Pac 12 team. Big Ten team could easily get in over them.

FSU won a national title over Notre Dame even though they both had one loss and ND was the team that beat them. It all comes down to who ND loses to and if FSU crushes everyone else they play.

That was a long time ago. Also FSU played 6 ranked teams that year- ND only 3. The schedule is a lot different this year. ND right now has a 6 spot lead on FSU for projected final schedule.

I also do think head to head is going to matter a LOT more than it has in the recent past. I mean that's why things changed so much in the BCS rating system from 1999-2001. Also think committee's view head to head a lot more than pollsters do.

FSU would need to be way ahead of where ND is to make the head to head matter- and with what FSU has left- just won't happen. Both teams have Louisville left..

FSU besides that- Virginia, Miami, BC, and Florida
ND besides that- Navy, Ariz St, Northwestern, and USC

FSU a hair stronger- but really unless ND lost to Navy- FSU would have a big ND problem.

ND gets Louisville at home while FSU gets them on the road. Personally, I think Louisville is going to upset ND anyway.

even if Louisville did upset ND- it wouldn't change the fact that ND beat FSU at FSU. Head to head I think is going to matter more than anyone here thinks.

Same goes with Oregon/Michigan St. If both finish 12-1, Oregon will go over Michigan St.

(10-14-2014 02:22 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 01:27 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 01:15 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 12:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 12:48 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Marshall is creeping closer.
Week 6 rank difference ECU +8
Week 7 rank difference ECU +7

Closing up one spot is creeping.

If you look at the # of votes- ECU's edge over Marshall increased this past week. That's not creeping.

I did and notice it but its quite irrelevant because the focus is on the rank # not the amount of votes. If you want to look at another way via vote. ECU gain 23.3% more votes from the previous week and Marshall gained 52.7% more votes than the previous week. More than double of ECU percentage wise.

Again, Marshall actually LOST ground in number of votes in AP poll AND both number of votes and spots moved up in the coaches poll. That's our point. Marshall did not creep closer...they lost ground.

If you say so....
ECU could have 1000 votes and Marshall 10 but if ECU #19 and Marshall is #20....it doesn't make a difference because the rank is what matters.

OK, if you want to go strictly by rank.

Coaches: ECU moved up 3 spots, Marshall moved up 2 spots.
AP: ECU moved up 1 spot, Marshall moved up 2 spots

Combined: each moved up a total of 4 spots when accounting for both major polls. A wash (even though ECU increased vote lead in both polls). ECU increased lead in AP # of votes and Coaches # of votes and number of spots. Marshall decreased ECU lead in AP number of spots moved up. So ECU increase in 3 out of 4 categories, Marshall in 1 out of 4 categories.

Again, Marshall did not creep closer.

(10-14-2014 02:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  even if Louisville did upset ND- it wouldn't change the fact that ND beat FSU at FSU. Head to head I think is going to matter more than anyone here thinks.

Same goes with Oregon/Michigan St. If both finish 12-1, Oregon will go over Michigan St.

It will also depend on if ND struggles in the games following L'ville. If they barely get by, the committee will drop them.

might drop them- but not necessarily behind ND. Everything would need to go right for FSU to get over ND who beat them.

Especially if ACC has a terrible series with the SEC yet again.....

(10-14-2014 12:38 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 09:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Yeah a 1 loss FSU is in deep trouble. No way they are in over ND(if ND is the team that gave them the loss), 0-1 loss SEC champ, or 0 Loss Baylor/1 loss Oklahoma. The question would be 1 loss FSU or 1 loss Big Ten team or 1 loss Pac 12 team. Big Ten team could easily get in over them.

FSU won a national title over Notre Dame even though they both had one loss and ND was the team that beat them. It all comes down to who ND loses to and if FSU crushes everyone else they play.

FSU has not been crushing everyone else! Not this year. That is the whole point.

(10-15-2014 10:29 AM)ARSTATEFAN1986 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 12:38 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 09:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Yeah a 1 loss FSU is in deep trouble. No way they are in over ND(if ND is the team that gave them the loss), 0-1 loss SEC champ, or 0 Loss Baylor/1 loss Oklahoma. The question would be 1 loss FSU or 1 loss Big Ten team or 1 loss Pac 12 team. Big Ten team could easily get in over them.

FSU won a national title over Notre Dame even though they both had one loss and ND was the team that beat them. It all comes down to who ND loses to and if FSU crushes everyone else they play.

FSU has not been crushing everyone else! Not this year. That is the whole point.

Everyone else they play means teams AFTER they play ND. That would be @Louisville, @Miami, home against Florida and whomever is the Coastal champ

(10-15-2014 05:46 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-15-2014 10:29 AM)ARSTATEFAN1986 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 12:38 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 09:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Yeah a 1 loss FSU is in deep trouble. No way they are in over ND(if ND is the team that gave them the loss), 0-1 loss SEC champ, or 0 Loss Baylor/1 loss Oklahoma. The question would be 1 loss FSU or 1 loss Big Ten team or 1 loss Pac 12 team. Big Ten team could easily get in over them.

FSU won a national title over Notre Dame even though they both had one loss and ND was the team that beat them. It all comes down to who ND loses to and if FSU crushes everyone else they play.

FSU has not been crushing everyone else! Not this year. That is the whole point.

Everyone else they play means teams AFTER they play ND. That would be @Louisville, @Miami, home against Florida and whomever is the Coastal champ

If FSU loses to ND...they will fall out of the top four for sure and cause Clemson to make a minor bowl.

(10-14-2014 02:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  One thing I think is kind of important- the schedule once the committee releases their initial ratings..
ECU- Temple, Cincy, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF
Mar- So Miss, Rice, UAB, W Kentucky, CUSA title game

Especially if UCF is ranked by the last game- it's a big edge for ECU. Very tough for Marshall to gain much ground on ECU with their remaining schedule once the initial committee ratings are released.

Not really seeing the talent gap other than UCF


USM sucks, but so does Tulsa
Cincy and WKU have good offenses, but atrocious defenses
UAB looks better than Temple
Rice looks about as good (maybe a little better; maybe a little worse) as Tulane

(10-15-2014 08:14 PM)ARSTATEFAN1986 Wrote:  

(10-15-2014 05:46 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-15-2014 10:29 AM)ARSTATEFAN1986 Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 12:38 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 09:41 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Yeah a 1 loss FSU is in deep trouble. No way they are in over ND(if ND is the team that gave them the loss), 0-1 loss SEC champ, or 0 Loss Baylor/1 loss Oklahoma. The question would be 1 loss FSU or 1 loss Big Ten team or 1 loss Pac 12 team. Big Ten team could easily get in over them.

FSU won a national title over Notre Dame even though they both had one loss and ND was the team that beat them. It all comes down to who ND loses to and if FSU crushes everyone else they play.

FSU has not been crushing everyone else! Not this year. That is the whole point.

Everyone else they play means teams AFTER they play ND. That would be @Louisville, @Miami, home against Florida and whomever is the Coastal champ

If FSU loses to ND...they will fall out of the top four for sure and cause Clemson to make a minor bowl.

Don't know about that. If some people are still including Michigan State in future projections I don't see how you could rule out FSU.

(10-15-2014 09:05 PM)mufanatehc Wrote:  

(10-14-2014 02:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  One thing I think is kind of important- the schedule once the committee releases their initial ratings..
ECU- Temple, Cincy, Tulane, Tulsa, UCF
Mar- So Miss, Rice, UAB, W Kentucky, CUSA title game

Especially if UCF is ranked by the last game- it's a big edge for ECU. Very tough for Marshall to gain much ground on ECU with their remaining schedule once the initial committee ratings are released.

Not really seeing the talent gap other than UCF


USM sucks, but so does Tulsa
Cincy and WKU have good offenses, but atrocious defenses
UAB looks better than Temple
Rice looks about as good (maybe a little better; maybe a little worse) as Tulane

UAB could have easily 4 losses when they play- 6-4. Temple would be 5-2 when they play(losing to UCF).

Cincy should be 5-3 when they play ECU. Western Kentucky might not even have 5 wins when they play last game of the season.

And the biggest problem for Marshall- is UCF. CUSA has nothing that could compare to a 9-2 UCF. And it's the last game of the year. The only advantage Marshall is going to have is UCF is a whole lot more likely to knock of ECU than any CUSA west team is of knocking off Marshall.

It's not the final ranking. Once a 1-loss mid-major hits #15 (without a super-tough schedule) -- it doesn't go much further than that. An undefeated mid-major with a soft schedule won't go much further either. In the end, the final ranking is going to be pretty close between ECU & Marshall *if* both win out the rest of the way (and Marshall's CUSAC win).

But again, it's not the final ranking. It's how the selection committee sees it -- not the voters on the outside.

I'm sure they'll look at the Raw BCS ranking scheme (without voter poll influences) and compare the two. Usually, when you near the end of the season, 0 losses is a bigger deal. But I don't think that will be the judge though -- just an influencer.

COMPILED Rankings of 106 Different FBS Rankings PROCESSED FOR A FINAL RANKING (Taking Mean, Median, and Stnd Deviation):
#21 Marshall
#33 E Carolina

Of those, the ones I've heard of before (besides AP & Coaches), here are some:
Sagarin
#35 Marshall
#45 E Carolina

Massey
#34 E Carolina
#36 Marshall

Pigskin
#26 Marshall
#33 E Carolina

Stanford
#26 Marshall
#38 E Carolina

*EACH TEAM'S HIGHS AND LOWS IN POLLS/ALGORITHMS OUT OF THE 106*
(I counted a bit quick so I could be off by a couple in a section, but you get the idea)

Marshall:
Top 1-10: 19
Top 11-20: 26
Top 21-30: 25 (2 are AP & Coaches)
Top 31-40: 9
Top 41-50: 6

TOP RANKS: #4 (ECU: 49), #4 (ECU: 26)
BOTTOM RANKS: #52 (ECU: 39), #71 (ECU: 36)

BEST TEAMS BEAT: #64 UAB, #71 Akron, #75 Rice
WORST LOSSES: No Losses

E Carolina:
Top 1-10: 0
Top 11-20: 5 (2 are AP & Coaches)
Top 21-30: 20
Top 31-40: 53
Top 41-50: 22

TOP RANKS: #16 USA TODAY (MARSH: 24), #17 (MARSH: 21)
BOTTOM RANKS: #54 (MARSH: 31), #64 (MARSH: 10)

BEST TEAMS BEAT: #34 VaTech, #74 UNC, #108 South Florida
WORST LOSSES: #39 South Carolina

Website Link:
http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Now, before Pirates Cruxify me (or that site's results) -- consider this:

- Pretty much everything considers SoS, computed & opinion. ECU's is ONLY going to get better than Marshall's still from here on out. ECU will go up in that regard.
- Most of these are computation-heavy, which puts W/L % bearing more weight to teams that don't play in B1G conferences. BUT, ECU's W/L % will only go UP if winning out. Marshall's CAN'T change.
- Many computation-heavy analyses put margin-of-victory in there too, to compensate for SoS. Understandable. But how much is fair, etc? That's why there's 106 meshed together.

With that said though, at this time -- considering everything, I would myself put Marshall a bit above ECU at this point. But it's only mid-season.

If ECU wins out, as does Marshall? I may easily pick ECU -- depending on how things pan out. If ECU squeezes out wins against the tougher competition, and Marshall wins by 20-30 points every game including CUSAC, I may by year end stick with Marshall. But if ECU convincingly hands their tougher opponents some nice losses and Marshall struggles somewhat here and there? Oh, ECU.

At this point -- it's FAR TOO EARLY to tell who's more Deserving.