I don't know if you guys have seen this or if this has been posted on here before, but I am trying to switch it up since there is just a little more than a month until basketball season starts. (Also trying to forget about Tulsa football)
Preview from Matt Norlander of CBS, I would say they snubbed the conference as a whole, as he only predicting 3 teams to make the NCAA. I think tulsa is too low with all we have returning and memphis too high with all they have lost. What are your guys thoughts/predictions?
I posted the link below and here is the article:
What's in store for Year No. 2 with the American? You must know: Louisville is no more. And the same goes for Rutgers (but we must ask ourselves, was Rutgers ever really there?). Both teams have left the AAC after their one-year leases; the Cardinals to join the rough ranks of the ACC, while the Scarlet Knights will give it a go in the Big Ten.
So with those exports, who are the imports? New to the league: Tulane, East Carolina and Tulsa. It remains to be seen what these programs do for the basketball (and football, to an extent, although East Carolina looks pretty nice on the gridiron this season) for the AAC, but at the very least there is some variety.
Right now, the conference is riding high coming off Connecticut's unlikely national championship run. The Huskies became the first seventh-seeded team to win the NCAA Tournament after they came back from a 16-4 first-half deficit to paralyze top-seeded Florida in the Final Four, then held off Kentucky 60-54 in the national title game. In Kevin Ollie's first season as a postseason-eligible coach, he wins it all. Remarkable.
Repeatable? No one outside of Storrs is buying that -- but the Huskies can certainly earn the crown in this league this season. So let's get to all the teams and examine what's to come.
Coach's Take
"I think one of the things, if you look at the teams that even finished in the back half of the conference last year, there were even some teams that had all league-type players. I thought, really, it was some really good coaches and players in the conference But I think, for some teams, it was making that adjustment [to the new league]. It was young players, inexperienced players, and that was a pretty big jump for some."
Who should win the league?
"When you look up and down, Memphis, they lost pieces. UConn has a couple of newcomers who could be pretty good, and the kid who sat out from N.C. State (Rodney Purvis) should play a role. Cincinnati is always a really, really tough team. Even though they last a bunch of guys, history tells you they'll be there. It's a little but of unknown everywhere. Temple had three kids stepping into prominent roles that hadn't been in them the year before."
The best player in the league?
"Tough. I was really impressed with Austin Nichols at Memphis. I think he was a skilled guy and will be poised, as well as Shaq Goodwin. He was such a big piece to what they did. Will Cummings should have a good year for Temple. He's ready to be a senior and step up and lead the group. I really like the Markus Kennedy at SMU, too. He does some really versatile things in the post. And I think the post guys in our conference are underrated compared to others. If you look around, the skilled big guys in the paint are a thing of the past."
Toughest venues?
"Louisville, SMU and Cincinnati. In Cincy, everyone was really engaging and exciting. With SMU, I was really impressed. I didn't know what to expect going there. You had some of the Cowboys there, and it was a little bit different from what I expected."
How many from the AAC should make the NCAAs?
"It's real tough for me to sit here in October and say. It'd be great to get four or five, but that would be easier to say once we get to December."
Projected order of finish
Connecticut
Even with UConn legend Shabazz Napier gone -- and utilitarian junior forward DeAndre Daniels having left early for the NBA, and 3-point specialist Niels Giffey having graduated -- UConn's still a clear preseason top 25 team and our pick to win the American. The biggest question: Will Ryan Boatright be the type of leading man in the backcourt that Napier was? Will he revert to some of his erratic ways without that mentor? Can he accept this role? Fortunately, he'll have a troupe around him. The Huskies will have Rodney Purvis, a redshirt sophomore from N.C. State, stepping in to help. Then there's still-learning Omar Calhoun is a 6-foot-6 combo player who could be that breakout guy. And flex 3 Daniel Hamilton, a freshman, should see plenty of minutes. Keep in mind, though, that UConn's success might depend on how big of a jump 7-foot sophomore Amida Brimah makes this season. He's a projected future NBA player, but Brimah's still raw and has a penchant for way too many goaltends. His offensive game is never going to be premier, but the body strength and hungry rebounding ability will be vital. The Huskies will be interesting again, but it could take them a little while to be undeniably good.
SMU
If Emmanuel Mudiay hadn't run into eligibility issues (read all about them here; in short, the prep school he went to ultimately put him in a horrible spot to be able to play this season), then SMU would be a near-unanimous pick to win the conference. Mudiay, currently earning plenty of money in a likely one-year stop in China, is that good of a point guard. Instead, Larry Brown will have to settle for second in our projections. You'll recall SMU was the shocker snub of the 2014 NCAA Tournament. That was in part because of SMU's miserable non-conference schedule. Did Brown adapt and schedule tougher for 2014-15? Well, the Mustangs' out-of-league slate includes at Gonzaga, at Indiana, home to Arkansas and at Michigan. It's a significant step up. SMU, led by its backcourt of Keith Frazier and Nic Moore, should be in this year's Field of 68. Junior power forward Markus Kennedy is probably the best player in the conference fans outside of SMU don't know about.
Memphis
So, I wrote this conference preview a few days back. It was done. I figured Memphis would be in a bit of trouble this year ... and then the team got huge news. Kedren Johnson was ruled eligible Tuesday night. Who's Kedren Johnson? He's a 6-foot-4 combo guard who averaged 13.5 points for Vanderbilt last season and immediately gives the Tigers' backcourt some hope. Before him, the team had no guards with a minute of college basketball experience in regular-season games. It was a 180 from last year, when the team had four senior guards -- Joe Jackson, Geron Johnson, Chris Crawford and Michael Dixon -- leading the charge. For 2014-15, the frontcourt will decide how good the team is. But at least with Johnson, now Josh Pastner's team can reasonably expect to make the NCAA Tournament. He and Pookie Powell will likely share duties at point guard. Memphis will be led by Shaq Goodwin, an improving big man who's set for a very nice year, I think. The Tigers round out what most consider to be a cut-above top three in this league. Everyone below is not expected to make the NCAA Tournament heading into the season.
Temple
Regarding that final sentence in the Memphis graf above, let me say: I always like taking a few chances in preseason predictions, so I'm guessing Temple squeezes into the Big Dance this year. Fran Dunphy is one of the smartest coaches in the game, and even though the Owls were unusually bad last season (9-22, perhaps Dunphy's worst year ever), they should snap back to respectability this year. Guard Will Cummings was the bright spot, leading the team in scoring. He's a senior now and could be one of the best players in the league. Temple's issue was putrid defense. I expect Dunphy to improve the group's 257 D efficiency rating on KenPom.com to at least 100 points higher. With that, a 20-win season is possible. The Owls' schedule is challenging but offers opportunities. The team plays Duke, UNLV or Stanford, Louisiana Tech (solid mid-major), Kansas, and has road games against St. Joe's and Villanova. Winning three of those would really help the team. By the time it gets to AAC play, it should be seasoned enough to hold its own. Sophomore guard Josh Brown should be the breakout player.
Cincinnati
Mick Cronin's made his living by proving people wrong. Cincy's coach has made the past four NCAA Tournaments, but I think the Bearcats slip this season. It could be similar to that 2009-10 year, when UC went 19-16 and was fundamentally just OK. The difference is, that team underachieved (it had Yancy Gates and Lance Stephenson). This year's group will likely just be suffering from a lack of talent, plus the leadership and toughness of departed seniors Sean Kilpatrick and Justin Jackson. The Bearcats' best returning player? I think it's Jermaine Sanders. Cincy's guys are typically seen as stars who blend in. That could be the case here. Where is the offense going to come from? Expect a lot of 59-56 endings for Cronin's crew. They'll be a tough out, but I'm not sure they've got the talent to clearly get to the NCAAs.
Tulsa
This is where Frank Haith went. The former Missouri coach got out of town before the rabble picked up steam. Now he takes over for Danny Manning, who was hired at Wake Forest. Some think Tulsa's a sleeping giant. Hey, we know the program had that impressive run in the 1990s and through the early 2000s. Last season Manning got this group to the NCAAs after earning a 13 seed following a C-USA postseason title. The AAC is a step up from Conference USA, certainly, but the reason this team should still be a player is because Haith only suffered one player transfer after coming in. And the team only lost one senior of impact. If you told me Tulsa managed to finish fourth in this league, I wouldn't be surprised. I'm predicting to scale here, and I think the team is a clear step down from the top three. But one player to watch for: junior guard James Woodard. I didn't put him on my All-AAC team, and I'm already kind of regretting it. Rashad Smith, D'Andre Wright and Shaquille Harrison are also juniors. This team is interesting.
Houston
If you've been following the sport, you know Houston now has one of the more interesting coaching situations anywhere. After a six-year absence, Kelvin Sampson has returned to college hoops. The former Oklahoma and Indiana coach was hired by the Cougars, and I think it's a pretty great move. Sampson's career record is 496-271. He's a really good coach. Stupid scandals regarding outdated philosophies on phone calls and texts got him banned. But now that he's back, I think Houston will be a relevant program in the league and competing for NCAA Tourney bids within the next two years and for as long as Sampsons stays. The Cougars lost a lot after last season. Five transfers left with Sampson's arrival. L.J. Rose and Jherrod Stiggers are still around, and they can get this team to .500 this year. It's a rebuild. Give the Cougars until 2016 before things really start rolling. If Sampson stays clear of any more trouble, the 59-year-old is going to have a shot at 700 wins before his career is over, which is pretty remarkable given his six-year hiatus.
UCF
Donnie Jones enters year No. 5 at Central Florida with some urgency to get results. It's unclear how good -- or not -- this Knights team will be. Jones was doing well for his first three seasons, when UCF was in C-USA and he averaged 21 wins. But the move to the AAC last year dropped the team to a 13-18 record, and that was in part because Isaiah Sykes, a senior, wasn't afforded the help he needed to really be a star and carry the team to an above-.500 record. This season UCF will hope to have big strides from big man sophomore Justin McBride, who is reported to be a svelte 325 pounds. That's a lot of Knight right there. Senior Kasey Wilson will also be a factor. Problem is, does UCF have the depth or key player to rise out of the middle of the league? It doesn't look like it for this season.
East Carolina
It's tough to say how East Carolina will adapt after coming over from C-USA. Last year the Pirates were 17-17 but had an awful defense and bad non-conference schedule. Against a typical AAC slate, maybe that .500 mark dips closer to 13-21. The group mostly returns its core, and because of that I think ECU will dodge being in the basement. Jeff Lebo had high expectations coming into this job four years back. He's averaged 18.3 wins since arriving. That's solid, but there's not yet been an NCAA Tournament appearance, and now it gets even tougher. It's tough to pick out which player will be the go-to guy, but I'm thinking it'll be sophomore guard/forward Caleb White.
USF
South Florida gets a fresh start with new head coach Orlando Antigua, who was famously the upbeat and easily identifiable Kentucky assistant the past few seasons under John Calipari. Of course, Antigua got the job after the Steve Masiello snafu went down, when a background check on Masiello discovered the Manhattan coach hadn't technically ever received his degree from the University of Kentucky. This caused a PR nightmare, and while Masiello was eventually taken back by Manhattan after earning that degree this offseason, the open slot allowed Antigua to get the gig. Funny how one player with Kentucky ties lost it, while another man with Kentucky ties got it. As for, you know, this team, give it time. The coaching change led to six scholarship players transferring out. The Bulls' best player, Victor Rudd, graduated. It is a complete mystery to how good -- or, again, not -- USF will be. Chris Perry is a sophomore power forward who stuck around, and he'll probably be the team's best player.
Tulane
Ed Conroy will have to be patient here, as he's got a growing team that needs to establish a rotation and an idenity. The Green Wave were 268th in offensive efficiency and 265th in defensive efficiency last season. There's no telling if those numbers will get better in 2014-15. The good news is, Conroy gets to live in New Orleans. And with the influx of Tulane, in addition to ECU and Tulsa, the league will at least have a stable of teams and can now move toward establishing itself. Will it be an annual three bid-type league for the NCAAs? Or can this conference start molding into a four- or five-bid? Tulane can't help the cause now, but the hope is within five years the AAC will dodge what many leagues are hindered with: three or four programs that are consistently at or near the bottom.
Our Preseason All-AAC Team
G: Nic Moore (SMU)
G: Ryan Boatright (Connecticut)
G: Will Cummings (Temple)
F: Markus Kennedy (SMU)
F: Shaq Goodwin (Memphis)
Our Preseason AAC Player of the Year
Markus Kennedy, SMU
Forecasting the AAC POY is probably the toughest crystal-ball move of any of the big leagues. There's not a clear stud as we head into the season, but a handful of guys who could potentially bring in the numbers. The way I look at it: In almost every case, the guy who takes home POY has got to be on a team that finishes in the top three in the league. There's usually enough winning there to justify the award in addition to the obvious statistical component. While Nic Moore will likely do a great job at point for SMU, Kennedy's efficiency -- and the chance few will match up with him inside the conference -- give him a solid shot at emerging as the league's best. We're expecting a tight race atop the AAC throughout, but Kennedy's good enough (12.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG last season) to earn the minutes and dominate the paint to take home the award
Our Preseason AAC Newcomer of the Year
Rodney Purvis, UConn
Ollie on Purvis last week: "My Ferrari is now out of the garage." Ollie referring to last year as Purvis' redshirt season, wherein he practiced but did not play on the court for the Huskies. Big things are expected of the North Carolina State transfer, who's more of a 2 than a 1, but there no doubt will be times when he takes over the offense instead of Boatright.
Our Preseason AAC Coach of the Year
Kevin Ollie, Connecticut
Given we think UConn will not only win the league, which it did not do last season, but do it without the Player of the Year in the conference ... yeah, Ollie winning it makes sense. He's a coaching star as it is, and when UConn enters the 2015 NCAA Tournament as a No. 3 or 4 seed, you'll have heard and read plenty about the wonders Ollie's been able to do in less than three years in Storrs. The NBA rumors won't slow, either.
Three Numbers to Know
25.6: The percentage of AAC games last season that ended with a margin of 20 points or more, per KenPom.com. This made the AAC the most blowout-heavy league in all of college basketball. The conference was notorious for basically having an upper and lower class. It would greatly benefit the American if, this season, there was much more of a middle in the ... middle.
26.6: The percentage of men's basketball national titles won by UConn since 1999. I type it because I have to shake my skull into realizing how crazy that is. In a lot of ways, I still think UConn juuuust doesn't quite get enough due for how dominant and powerful the program has become compared to what it was 25 years ago.
2,460: The number of days between Kelvin Sampson's last college game as a head coach (Feb. 19, 2008) and his next one, which comes Nov. 14 at home against Murray State. Some thought Sampson would never be a head coach in college again, but with the change in rules for phone calls and text messages, Sampson's past repeated violations -- while still astonishing in some ways -- don't seem as egregious as they were six years ago.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...review-aac
If teams like that are in the conversation vetran teams like ECU and Tulane are as well, especially adding some of the newcomers we do like Whisnant.
