New Mexico State @ Troy
(My Prediction: 28-17 NMSU)
(Actual Result: Troy 41-24)

The Trojans certainly made sure Larry Blakeney wasn't going to lose his final homecoming game at Troy. The Trojans had their best showing of the 2014 season, having over 570 total yards, and forcing 4 Aggies turnovers in their 17 point victory. The Aggies just never could get anything going consistently, and never were able to take a lead getting as close as 3 early, then never closer than 10 points for the remainder of the game. It's looking like whatever early momentum New Mexico State had is officially flushed down the toilet, and with a depleted and demoralized App State coming to Troy next Saturday, Trojans look to make a roaring second half season comeback.


Arkansas State @ Georgia State
(My Prediction: 34-27 ASU
Actual Results: 52-10 ASU)

Wow...what a performance by the Red Wolves. This has been the most complete game the Pack has played all season, completely steam rolling the Panthers both offensively and defensively. Despite only having 1 win on the season coming into the game, Georgia State had been looking very competitive all season long and were bringing in a very high scoring, pass happy offense. I think I can speak for both Red Wolves and Panthers fans alike when I say for a squad to give preseason favs Lafayette all they could handle a week before, to only having 269 total yards and 10 points on homecoming was a little surprising. Heading into the BYE, Red Wolves are on cloud 9 whereas Georgia State are left wondering when will they finally get that coveted 1st Sunbelt Conference win.



Idaho @ Georgia Southern
(My Prediction: 45-23 Ga. Southern)
(Actual Results: 47-24 Ga. Southern)

Though the game went right as about as I expected, still can't help but applaud the Vandals effort. Definitely were trying to throw all the stops to get the upset win, jumping to an early lead and then going for multiple 4th down attempts but the Eagles machine simply wore down the Vandals and rumbled on to another victory. Georgia Southern is looking unstoppable for the time being, and with their hardest games left appearing to be at Texas State and at Navy (which I'm definitely looking forward to), it's starting to appear the once thought of out side shot of winning the conference is starting to turn into reality.

Liberty @ Appalachian State
(My Prediction: 45-27 App. State)
(Actual Results: 55-48 OT Liberty)

Appalachian State started off brilliantly, going for and recovering an onside kick to start the game and scoring the very next play. Then horrid mistakes began to make their way into the game, first with the Mountaineers scoring on a Liberty fumbling, then Appalachian State returning the favor a few series later, with the Flames taking a 39 yard fumble return for a score. Ultimately, penalties along with two missed field goals and an interception thrown in OT doomed Appalachian State and Liberty scored the win they coveted over the Belt. Mountaineers have lost 4 straight, and with Troy looking to have found an offense now, it's certainly appearing the Mountaineers may not even get to 4 wins on the season.


ULM @ Kentucky
(My Prediction: 49-26 Kentucky)
(Actual Prediction: 48-14)

ULM certainly jumped out to a fast start, surprising the Wildcats and led 14-3 to end the first. It certainly appeared ULM might give Kentucky all they could handle early...then the Wildcats offense woke up and scored on a 83 yard touchdown pass to get within 4, 14-10. Then Pete Thomas threw a pick six...and before you know it Kentucky goes on to pile on another 38 unanswered points to crush ULM 48-14. Monroe just looked inept for most of the game, not even getting to 80 rushing yards and turning the ball over two more times. The BYE couldn't have come at a better time for the Warhawks, and if they hope to have any semblance of a successful season they have to get their offensive woes sorted out before hosting a potentially red hot Texas State squad.

The latest Sagarin Ratings are reflecting what everyone is seeing, and that is a gap between GaSo and A-State and the rest of the SBC:

#59 A-State
#87 GaSo
#103 USA
#124 UL
#128 TxSt
#140 ULM
#166 Troy
#168 AppSt
#183 Idaho
#192 NMSU
#196 GaSt

The latest Massey Composite Ratings are:

#57 A-State
#68 GaSo
#87 USA
#96 ULM
#104 UL
#105 TxSt
#124 NMSU
#125 AppSt
#119 Troy
#126 GaSt
#128 Idaho

does sagarin take into account points when looking at W and L, or is it just straight up W-L?

(10-13-2014 09:36 AM)NCeagle Wrote:  does sagarin take into account points when looking at W and L, or is it just straight up W-L?

Basically it is designed to take into consideration everything, and that is why it was a part of the BCS.

I like composite ratings and the USA Today Composite comes out today around 2:00pm. It is basically the old BCS Rankings.

The Massey BCS ranking for this week has 5 non-P5's( 3 are G5's) ahead of A-State:
#9 ND, #43 Colorado State, #44 BYU, #46 Boise St, and #47 Utah.

Of course the import thing is the committee is expected to still utilize these unbiased rankings in the determination of who is in and who is out, especially for the G5's.

gotcha. I remember someone saying that one of the rankings didn't take into account the score into the win or loss. IE a 30 point loss to Alabama would be rated the same as a 1 point loss to Alabama.

(10-13-2014 09:54 AM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  

(10-13-2014 09:36 AM)NCeagle Wrote:  does sagarin take into account points when looking at W and L, or is it just straight up W-L?

Basically it is designed to take into consideration everything, and that is why it was a part of the BCS.

I like composite ratings and the USA Today Composite comes out today around 2:00pm. It is basically the old BCS Rankings.

The Massey BCS ranking for this week has 5 non-P5's( 3 are G5's) ahead of A-State:
#9 ND, #43 Colorado State, #44 BYU, #46 Boise St, and #47 Utah.

Of course the import thing is the committee is expected to still utilize these unbiased rankings in the determination of who is in and who is out, especially for the G5's.

Utah is P5 (PAC 12)

(10-13-2014 09:57 AM)NCeagle Wrote:  gotcha. I remember someone saying that one of the rankings didn't take into account the score into the win or loss. IE a 30 point loss to Alabama would be rated the same as a 1 point loss to Alabama.

Go this off Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Sagarin

"...does not divulge the exact methodology behind his system. He offers two rating systems, each of which gives each team a certain number of points. One system, "Elo chess," is presumably based on the Elo rating system used internationally to rank chess players. This system uses only wins and losses with no reference to the victory margin. The other system, "Predictor," takes victory margin into account. For that system the difference in two teams' rating scores is meant to predict the margin of victory for the stronger team at a neutral venue. For both systems teams gain higher ratings within the Sagarin system by winning games against stronger opponents, factoring in such things as home-venue advantage. For the Predictor system, margin of victory (or defeat) factors in also, but a law of diminishing returns is applied. Therefore, a football team that wins a game by a margin of 7-6 is rewarded less than a team that defeats the same opponent under the same circumstances 21-7, but a team that wins a game by a margin of 35-0 receives similar ratings to a team that defeats the same opponent 70-0. This characteristic has the effect of recognizing "comfortable" victories, while limiting the reward for running up the score."

thanks

(10-13-2014 10:12 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(10-13-2014 09:54 AM)Seminole Indian Wrote:  

(10-13-2014 09:36 AM)NCeagle Wrote:  does sagarin take into account points when looking at W and L, or is it just straight up W-L?

Basically it is designed to take into consideration everything, and that is why it was a part of the BCS.

I like composite ratings and the USA Today Composite comes out today around 2:00pm. It is basically the old BCS Rankings.

The Massey BCS ranking for this week has 5 non-P5's( 3 are G5's) ahead of A-State:
#9 ND, #43 Colorado State, #44 BYU, #46 Boise St, and #47 Utah.

Of course the import thing is the committee is expected to still utilize these unbiased rankings in the determination of who is in and who is out, especially for the G5's.

Utah is P5 (PAC 12)

Make that #47 Utah State.

I was told after A-State beat Utah State that that win put them in the 'mix', and keep up with these rankings, especially those that are based on the old BCS rankings.

The committee members are expected to rely on them much more for the G5's.

Memphis losing to Houston was big for A-State.

Sagarin's ratings don't look so hot... Harvard ranked above South Alabama? Come on!

Not a lot is known about USA right now to "computers".

USA has only played 5 games (already had our second bye week).
The three teams USA beat are 1-17
The two teams USA lost to are 11-2; one is #1 in the country and the other is undefeated in conference and almost 7-0 overall.

USA's next two opponents are a combined 2-10. Then we go on a ASU-ULL-TXST swing and close with South Carolina and Navy.

I could be wrong, but I think Sagarin was removed from BCS comptuer rankings used when they decided to remove scoring margins from the BCS computer rankings process.

(10-13-2014 10:42 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Sagarin's ratings don't look so hot... Harvard ranked above South Alabama? Come on!

Not a lot is known about USA right now to "computers".

USA has only played 5 games (already had our second bye week).
The three teams USA beat are 1-17
The two teams USA lost to are 11-2; one is #1 in the country and the other is undefeated in conference and almost 7-0 overall.

USA's next two opponents are a combined 2-10. Then we go on a ASU-ULL-TXST swing and close with South Carolina and Navy.

I have found that if you put your special FBS colored glasses on, they block out all the FCS teams in Sagarin Ratings.

Seriously, you'll all be happier with Sagarin when you learn to literally ignore the FCS teams on the list. At that point, Sagarin becomes much more reasonable and useful.

(10-13-2014 10:42 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  Sagarin's ratings don't look so hot... Harvard ranked above South Alabama? Come on!

Not a lot is known about USA right now to "computers".

USA has only played 5 games (already had our second bye week).
The three teams USA beat are 1-17
The two teams USA lost to are 11-2; one is #1 in the country and the other is undefeated in conference and almost 7-0 overall.

USA's next two opponents are a combined 2-10. Then we go on a ASU-ULL-TXST swing and close with South Carolina and Navy.

Hate to break the news to you but these rankings matter big-time, and there is absolutely no doubt that the committee is going to use the same tools it has used in the past to narrow the field.

Sagarin was and will be a factor in which G5 team gets picked, like it or not, and is a part of any credible ranking including the BCS.

I, and everyone that has asked have been told to simply follow the rankings that are based on the old BCS formula, and you will know where your G5 team stands with the committee.

Expect the P5 selection will be a little more political, but not the G5.

My reaction to week 7

South Alabama would pulverize Harvard. And I'm not a guy who looks down his nose at the elite FCS teams just because my team is FBS.

I wonder if our finishing 7-4 in a weak SoCon last year is still distorting the rankings.

Like I have said before, computer rankings without transparency have no legitimacy in my mind.

(10-13-2014 11:34 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  South Alabama would pulverize Harvard. And I'm not a guy who looks down his nose at the elite FCS teams just because my team is FBS.

I wonder if our finishing 7-4 in a weak SoCon last year is still distorting the rankings.

Like I have said before, computer rankings without transparency have no legitimacy in my mind.

I don't believe so. I think he only goes back 7 games. Now where we were ranked to start the season is why we are a good bit lower than A State.

(10-13-2014 11:34 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  South Alabama would pulverize Harvard. And I'm not a guy who looks down his nose at the elite FCS teams just because my team is FBS.

I wonder if our finishing 7-4 in a weak SoCon last year is still distorting the rankings.

Like I have said before, computer rankings without transparency have no legitimacy in my mind.

More likely it is our putrid SOS for this year. But I'm not complaining they can rank us 128 for all I care as long as we keep winning!

(10-13-2014 11:37 AM)NCeagle Wrote:  

(10-13-2014 11:34 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  South Alabama would pulverize Harvard. And I'm not a guy who looks down his nose at the elite FCS teams just because my team is FBS.

I wonder if our finishing 7-4 in a weak SoCon last year is still distorting the rankings.

Like I have said before, computer rankings without transparency have no legitimacy in my mind.

I don't believe so. I think he only goes back 7 games. Now where we were ranked to start the season is why we are a good bit lower than A State.

Not sure but pretty sure the current data is just for this season. Will try and find out, but this was all that was on Wikipedia:

"At the beginning of a season, when only a few games have been played, a Bayesian network weighted by starting rankings is used as long as there are whole groups of teams that have not played one another, but once the graph is well-connected, the weights are no longer needed. Sagarin claims that from that point, the rankings are unbiased."

For some reason i have always used 5 games as the cutoff.

(10-13-2014 11:37 AM)NCeagle Wrote:  

(10-13-2014 11:34 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  South Alabama would pulverize Harvard. And I'm not a guy who looks down his nose at the elite FCS teams just because my team is FBS.

I wonder if our finishing 7-4 in a weak SoCon last year is still distorting the rankings.

Like I have said before, computer rankings without transparency have no legitimacy in my mind.

I don't believe so. I think he only goes back 7 games. Now where we were ranked to start the season is why we are a good bit lower than A State.

42 point road win inflates stAte's rating some, even with diminishing returns principles in play. That and/or beating a team rated higher than A-State, #55 Utah State.