RE: ODU@UTEP Prediction thread
I wrote up this game for another website, but I will post it here:
Recap of last week. ODU and UTEP both got smoked. Marshall absolutely dominated ODU 56-14 while LA Tech dominated UTEP 55-3. I didn't catch the UTEP game, was in person for the ODU game. Physically, the Monarchs could not match up with Marshall. Marshall is by far the best team ODU has every played. They are truly a complete football team so the defense could not cheat to stop one particular aspect and the offense struggled vs. a very athletic defense. What Marshall was able to do is man up on ODU's WRs and use the pass rush to get after Heinicke. Heinicke had zero shot in the pocket....in the few times where he had time, there was no one open, but the majority of the time he was just getting harassed 1 second after the snap. On a minor positive note for the optimistic crowd was that ODU was able to run the ball as Marshall was clearly focused on not letting ODU throw on them all day. The Monarchs ran 42 times for 201 yards (ran well at he very beginning, but gashed Marshall in garbage time). True freshman Ray Lawry was mainly the culprit as he had a field day....16 carries 131 yards brings his yearly total to 36 carries 286 yards. Look for him to get more action as I think ODU focuses on the run more this game. Lawry is not good in the passing game, which has limited his playing time.
Looking at box scores and reading about the game, the key in the UTEP game was that LT was able to stop the run. 36 carries for 81 yards for UTEP vs. a very stout run defense of LT (avg 30-81 yards) UTEP is not a team that is going to beat many teams through the air and they really couldn't pass either 15-28 143 yards.
ODU on offense:
ODU has a far more balanced attack this year averaging 31 runs vs. 38 passes. I really hope this is continues this week. UTEPs run defense average 36 carries for 234 yards (6.23 ypc) vs offenses that average 40 carries for 201 yards (4.9 ypc). UTEPs 4-2-5 is clearly having trouble stopping the run.
NM 52-410 7.9 ypc (they average 52-323 6.2)
TT 28-225 8.1 (they average 26-134 5.2)
KS 37-188 5.1 (they average 42-189 4.5)
NM St 21-90 4.3 (they average 39-168 4.3)
LT 42-189 6.0 (they average 42-189 4.5)
ODU needs to establish the run this game. This is not the game to sling the ball all over the field. Big plays will be available in the passing game, but the key will be to establish the run. OVerall, UTEP is giving up 13-23 passing for 226 yards (9.9 yards per attempt) vs. teams that average 20-32 240 yards 7.8 ypa. Teams are just not even bothering with passing. NM passed 9 times. Tx Tech 31. KS 19, NM State 41, LT 17 times, most of those are below average attempts for each team.
Offensively, the most similar team to ODU is probably NM state. They ran 62 plays for 425 yards attempting 41 passes and 21 runs. NM State had a turnover in the red zone early in the game and after that appeared to completely abandon the run. Compare to Texas Tech, who threw 31 times (278 yards) and ran 28 times (226 yards) but somehow struggled to get the ball in the end zone. The best way to stop ODU's offense is to get after the QB, there are very few teams that would be successful letting him sit back in the pocket. Bad news for UTEP as they only have 2 sacks in 117 pass attempts on the year. (and 4 ints)
UTEP on Offense:
UTEP is totally inept at throwing the ball. They average 13-24 for 140 yards per game. The only respectable passing game they have put up was against Kansas State in which they threw 18-28 for 201 yards, however, K-Stat passing defense is decent, not great. There strength is running the ball with an athletic QB and a deep running back rotation. They average 44 runs per game for 216 yards and a 4.5 yards per carry average. That is against some pretty good run defenses that average 35 carries against for 169 yards or a 3.8 average.
ODUs defense is weak. they average 20-29 for 213 yards thru the air against (7.4 ypa) and 50 carries for 5.3 yards per attempt against on the ground. Of note, every team ODU has faced outside of EMU (and Hampton, who I don't include-FCS) average over 200 yards rushing per game. (NC State 213, Rice 205, MT 225, Marshall 300) UTEP is an inferior running team to NC State, MT, and Marshall and probably on par with Rice.
UTEP is at home with a strong running game and a bad defense. ODU is traveling across country with a more balanced attack and a bad defense. I think ODU should be able to cheat up to the LOS more to help the run game, especially with safety Felonte Misher, who has been much better as an in the box type safety. Cheating up and not getting gashed through the air is what ODU will have to hope to achieve. We've seen excellent play out of corner, Reggie Owens, but on the opposite side it's been a revolving door with none of the other corners playing real well. ODU is going to have trouble stopping the run, but with Misher playing in the box as the 8th man, I don't think we'll see them get completely gashed like Marshall or NC State was able to do because both teams have very good pass defenses that wouldn't allow you to cheat. The running game is the key on offense as they need to take pressure off the defense and not let UTEP have the ball for 40 minutes or they will run all over the defense in the 4th quarter. ODU is going to have to gain some confidence early and make UTEP have to go to the air to beat them.
I expect this to be a close game. I think if ODU starts out well, they will win. If UTEP is able to establish the run and control the clock, they will likely win. My official prediction is 35-31 ODU. But, I think these teams are pretty close in overall talent and UTEP is at home. Im picking ODU to win due to the one dimensional nature of UTEPs offense and there lack of pass rush or run stopping ability on defense.
|
/
ODU@UTEP Prediction thread
)
