(10-10-2014 05:19 PM)UofMstateU Wrote: (10-10-2014 02:59 PM)uccheese Wrote: (10-10-2014 08:37 AM)UofMstateU Wrote: (10-10-2014 08:23 AM)uccheese Wrote: You guys are talking like this is a bad thing for Marshall. Their mediocre team is being talked about every week and is potentially looking at a major bowl invite (access bowl). What they're doing with their schedule is without a doubt working.
If they do not make the access bowl then their schedule was a catastrophic failure.
Most of what is being talked about with Marshall is how they are not going to be considered.
I don't agree. The only reason they're even in the discussion at all is their schedule. If it fails to get them there, they're in the same spot they would have been playing a real schedule. Worth a shot to get yourself in the clubhouse at 12-0 IMO
The reason they have been in discussion is because most knew they would be really good, and have a crappy enough schedule that going undefeated is a good possibility.
Their OOC SOS is only part of the problem. Cusa itself is a lower level conference, so Marshall already needed to beef its schedule up to overcome their conference SOS.
If the committee does what everyone has been anticipating, which is to put a very strong emphasis on SOS, then that is very good news for our conference. That would mean about 6 teams from the AAC would would be competing with maybe two from the MWC, and no one else, for the access bowl slot, year after year.
These are Massey Composite Ratings.
ECU's conference SOS is really the same as Marshall's. Tulsa, UCONN, SMU, Tulane, USF are a combined 6-23 (3 FCS wins, 3 conference wins versus each other) and none of them have won a single FBS game OOC. These 5 teams are tanking ECU's SOS right now.
Cincy, Temple, UCF are 9-6 with 4 FBS OOC wins against #44 BYU (UCF), #80 Toledo (Cinci), #100 @Vanderbilt (Temple), and #122 Miami-OH (Cinci). Average margin of victory is 17 points. Average ranking of top 4 teams beaten is 86.5.
Marshall's opponent's conference schedule has 8 FBS OOC wins against #78 Bowling Green (WKU), #84 @Navy (WKU), #98 Hawaii (Rice), #114 @Army (Rice), #116 Tulsa (FAU), #119 Troy (UAB), #120 EMU (ODU), #125 App State (USM). Average margin of victory is 20.3 points. Average ranking of top 4 teams beaten is 93.5. Average margin of victory for top 4 teams beaten is 18 points.
-ECU's toughest conference games are #52 UCF, #62 @Temple, #85 @Cinci. #108 @South Florida. Average ranking is 76.75
-Marshall's toughest conference games are #66 @UAB. #75 Rice, #77 MTSU, #81 WKU. Average ranking is 74.75.
-ECU's AAC opponents still have OOC games against #54 @PSU, #114 Army.
-Marshall's CUSA opponents still have OOC games against #37 @Arkansas, #44 BYU, #100 @Vanderbilt, #114 Army.
I still give ECU's conference schedule a slight edge since they play 3 of their 4 toughest matchups on the road. However, the 5 bottom teams in the AAC aren't doing ECU's SOS any favors. If the AAC picks up the @PSU win it will help their case; same goes for CUSA if they get the Arkansas, BYU, or Vandy wins.
edit: this is only stats and no shot at anyone, so hopefully no one takes any offense.