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Missing the point.

(10-06-2014 01:57 PM)DesertBronco Wrote:  Missing the point.

of course.

(10-06-2014 01:58 PM)BCBronco Wrote:  

(10-06-2014 01:57 PM)DesertBronco Wrote:  Missing the point.

of course.

I wouldn't say that I was MISSING work Bob.

Quote:I never thought I'd say this, but I'm glad we don't have UMass on the schedule this year. They are dangerous this year (if they don't beat themselves).

I think Miami is just as dangerous. They're the only team that challenged Marshall this year (and that includes Akron) -- mainly due to being @Miami. Since we have to go @Miami, that's one reason why I'm leaning toward 5-7 rather than 6-6 as our likely goal (it's somewhere in the middle, in my mind). @Miami won't be a given for us. Ohio at home will be, IMO, will be slightly better odds for us, at this point. EMU is the only given for us, IMO.

No percentages?!

Its pretty common in any industry for a struggling company (and 4 wins is struggling) to go backwards while restructuring. I took over a very small privately held publishing company of educational and at risk materials about 20 years ago. Our annual net profit before I took over was about 780k, the industry standard for our competitors was about 1.2 million. My first year we netted about 480k, so we dipped quite a bit during our start to restructuring and rebranding. My second year we netted about 840k, my third year we netted about 1.5 million. I left after my fourth year but not before we netted 2.6 million. I left to pursue other interests with a nice bonus after we got bought out.

During our restructuring, I had to hire more qualified but more expensive executives, and managers, buy new computer systems and software, increase marketing, improve our B to B contracts, build better distribution systems, and so on. All of that short term expense cut into profits but paid dividends in the long run. In the end, it is common in nearly any industry to go backwards before you go forward, its not at all surprising to go from 4 wins to 1 win in this kind of situation. What's the problem?

(10-06-2014 02:28 PM)BCBronco Wrote:  Its pretty common in any industry for a struggling company (and 4 wins is struggling) to go backwards while restructuring. I took over a very small privately held publishing company of educational and at risk materials about 20 years ago. Our annual net profit before I took over was about 780k, the industry standard for our competitors was about 1.2 million. My first year we netted about 480k, so we dipped quite a bit during our start to restructuring and rebranding. My second year we netted about 840k, my third year we netted about 1.5 million. I left after my fourth year but not before we netted 2.6 million. I left to pursue other interests with a nice bonus after we got bought out.

During our restructuring, I had to hire more qualified but more expensive executives, and managers, buy new computer systems and software, increase marketing, improve our B to B contracts, build better distribution systems, and so on. All of that short term expense cut into profits but paid dividends in the long run. In the end, it is common in nearly any industry to go backwards before you go forward, its not at all surprising to go from 4 wins to 1 win in this kind of situation. What's the problem?

1 win is always a problem. 1 win with all that big talk was a double whammy problem.

Comparing to the business situation you described, 1 win/4 wins = .25, whereas your experience from business $480,000/$780,000 = .62. A direct comparision $780,000 x .25 you would have dropped to $195,000, in which case I'm thinking you are not covering wages. So yeah, 1 win was awful.

Strange, when Miami plays a couple of good quarters and loses, Chuck Martin is lavished with praise. The guy has one win against an 0-6 team that lost out of pure stupidity and we're supposed to be impressed?

Creighton and Martin are 1-10 to date. I thought the only evaluation that matters is wins and losses.

(10-06-2014 02:28 PM)BCBronco Wrote:  Its pretty common in any industry for a struggling company (and 4 wins is struggling) to go backwards while restructuring.

In the end, it is common in nearly any industry to go backwards before you go forward, its not at all surprising to go from 4 wins to 1 win in this kind of situation. What's the problem?

At risk of igniting this thread into a dumpster fire, I have been thinking about this in regards to 2015. Suppose we are able to win five, six...maybe even seven this year. Considering next year's schedule, I can see where we could be a candidate for regression - or, at the very least, treading water - for at least one more year:

- Michigan State
- at Georgia Southern (only losses this year at NC State and at now-ranked Georgia Tech - and they could have and arguably should have won both)
- at Ohio State
- at Toledo
- at NIU

That's not even taking into consideration CMU and whatever MAC East teams end up on our schedule.

I really like the direction we're heading, but 2015 is going to be challenging. With PJ getting another solid recruiting class in here and our young Broncos gaining more much-needed experience, I think we will be really well-positioned for 2016 and beyond.

Three losing seasons?!

Quote:In the end, it is common in nearly any industry to go backwards before you go forward, its not at all surprising to go from 4 wins to 1 win in this kind of situation. What's the problem?

In reference to EMU or UMass, with 2 & 1 wins respectively -- there's not much backwards you can do. I think UMass is improved (in their competitiveness), as should be expected. EMU is not, and that's a head-scratcher. EMU last year had:
- 1 win by 10 pts against a D1AA team
- 1 win in OT over a 1-win WMU team who barely beat UMass shooting themselves in the foot

This year, EMU:
- 1 win by 3 pts against a not-so-good D1AA team

In the end, you can't really say EMU is moving so far back per se, as there's not really much room. Can a team improve 1st year, head coach? YES -- given particular situations like UMass, EMU, and Miami.

Bowling Green was absolutely horrible. They brought some no-name Urban Meyer and beat Missouri 1st game of the year.
Cubit came in with Darnell doing so bad, and turned us around 1st year (we had talent)

I'm NOT saying anyone should expect EMU, UMass, or Miami to suddenly be even 6-6 by any means. And how good the team is isn't determined (just) by their record. It's how they're playing. UMass & Miami are NOT surprisingly BETTER.

EMU, though? No excuse for that, if they continue their ways for the rest of the year. Same with Fleck last year. No excuse to go 1-11. 3-9? OK. 1-11 losing to Nicholls like that, too? That wasn't due to any investment on anything. Going 3-9 instead of 5-7/6-6 -- OK. Fleck was in a more similar situation that Cubit was taking over the team, hence the rightful anger toward Fleck by fans.

Quote:Three losing seasons?!

Yep. Now DB, I agree with you that there was NO EXCUSE for going 1-11 last year. 3-9/4-8 with some close losses last year? OK. Adjustment year + all those injuries, sure.

This year? We very well may flirt with .500 this year. So it may not be 3 straight losing seasons... but at the same time, one shouldn't be kicking the wall at 5-7 if our losses are close ones (like Toledo).

Colonel was pointing out that 2015 is going to be about as tough as LAST YEAR. 3 "good luck dude" OOC games + @NIU + @Toledo. That's 5 losses as a "given". Replace one of those with a win, but expecting to win *ALL* other 7 games (CMU, BGSU/Akron, Buffalo/Kent, Miami/UMass, BSU, @EMU, D1AA)? That'd be asking too much. Next year, 7-5 at best. Aim for 6-6 as a realistic goal with our team improved.

I agree Colonel. 2016 will be a year to see some real Improvement in our Record:
- NIU & Toledo at home (good probability to win one of those)
- Georgia Southern at home (slight probable win; us more solidified And in our house)
- @Illinois (probable loss)
- @Northwestern (most likely a loss)

If you watched the Miami game you saw a team with ZERO run game. They run a shot gun with an empty backfield 99% of the time. Their QB threw 60 times. Their receivers are pedestrian. In UMass and Miami you had two teams that had no defense. UMass had a better all around offense, but rather than just keep pouring it on they tried to run out the clock. Didn't work.

If we go into that game healthy, and not believing this game's an easy W, then we're talking a blowout of serious proportion.

(10-06-2014 03:55 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:Three losing seasons?!

Yep. Now DB, I agree with you that there was NO EXCUSE for going 1-11 last year. 3-9/4-8 with some close losses last year? OK. Adjustment year + all those injuries, sure.

This year? We very well may flirt with .500 this year. So it may not be 3 straight losing seasons... but at the same time, one shouldn't be kicking the wall at 5-7 if our losses are close ones (like Toledo).

Colonel was pointing out that 2015 is going to be about as tough as LAST YEAR. 3 "good luck dude" OOC games + @NIU + @Toledo. That's 5 losses as a "given". Replace one of those with a win, but expecting to win *ALL* other 7 games (CMU, BGSU/Akron, Buffalo/Kent, Miami/UMass, BSU, @EMU, D1AA)? That'd be asking too much. Next year, 7-5 at best. Aim for 6-6 as a realistic goal with our team improved.

I agree Colonel. 2016 will be a year to see some real Improvement in our Record:
- NIU & Toledo at home (good probability to win one of those)
- Georgia Southern at home (slight probable win; us more solidified And in our house)
- @Illinois (probable loss)
- @Northwestern (most likely a loss)

Why is UT an automatic loss next year? We just took them to OT this year. Shouldn't WMU show further improvement and stand a chance for a win?

(10-06-2014 02:42 PM)Dirty Ernie Wrote:  

(10-06-2014 02:28 PM)BCBronco Wrote:  Its pretty common in any industry for a struggling company (and 4 wins is struggling) to go backwards while restructuring. I took over a very small privately held publishing company of educational and at risk materials about 20 years ago. Our annual net profit before I took over was about 780k, the industry standard for our competitors was about 1.2 million. My first year we netted about 480k, so we dipped quite a bit during our start to restructuring and rebranding. My second year we netted about 840k, my third year we netted about 1.5 million. I left after my fourth year but not before we netted 2.6 million. I left to pursue other interests with a nice bonus after we got bought out.

During our restructuring, I had to hire more qualified but more expensive executives, and managers, buy new computer systems and software, increase marketing, improve our B to B contracts, build better distribution systems, and so on. All of that short term expense cut into profits but paid dividends in the long run. In the end, it is common in nearly any industry to go backwards before you go forward, its not at all surprising to go from 4 wins to 1 win in this kind of situation. What's the problem?

1 win is always a problem. 1 win with all that big talk was a double whammy problem.

Comparing to the business situation you described, 1 win/4 wins = .25, whereas your experience from business $480,000/$780,000 = .62. A direct comparision $780,000 x .25 you would have dropped to $195,000, in which case I'm thinking you are not covering wages. So yeah, 1 win was awful.

I guess we look at it differently,I don't have a problem with one win and I made a nice bonus executing a plan and being patient.

Quote:Why is UT an automatic loss next year? We just took them to OT this year. Shouldn't WMU show further improvement and stand a chance for a win?

Okay, fair enough. I'm taking the @Toledo part to make it "expect us to lose". Now, would it be a shocker if we won @Toledo next year? No (but surprising!). But I see Toledo going up as well -- so, I would say there's a stronger chance next year than this year that they win. Especially since Toledo did not bring their A game by any stretch, this year.

3 OOC + @NIU + @Toledo:
0 Wins: 60% Chance
1 Wins: 20% Chance
2 Wins: 12% Chance
3 Wins: 5% Chance (winning @NIU, @Toledo, @GA-South)
4 Wins: 2.5% Chance (beating above + OSU or MSU)
5 Wins: 0.5% Chance (beating everybody)

So, I do take that back: 40% Chance we'll win 1+ games in that gauntlet. But that doesn't mean the other 7 are going to go 7-0 either, for an 8-win season. So, lets' be realistic. Our chances of winning 1 of those is about the same chance of somehow dropping it against a "given win" against, say, Kent or EMU.

Quote:1 win is always a problem. 1 win with all that big talk was a double whammy problem.

One win, four wins, both records suck. in my view, inconsequential difference.

UMass was absolutely crazy to not try to tie the game by kicking that close to the goal line, because as you all know very well, it is absolutely impossible for a kicker to miss from that close. Impossible.

(10-06-2014 03:33 PM)The Colonel Wrote:  I really like the direction we're heading, but 2015 is going to be challenging. With PJ getting another solid recruiting class in here and our young Broncos gaining more much-needed experience, I think we will be really well-positioned for 2016 and beyond.

Nice to see that one more person gets it.

Been saying this from the very beginning.

Rebuilding takes time. 2016 should be the year.

(10-06-2014 05:16 PM)BCBronco Wrote:  

Quote:1 win is always a problem. 1 win with all that big talk was a double whammy problem.

One win, four wins, both records suck. in my view, inconsequential difference.

I agree they both suck, but I insist 1 win sucks 4 times more. PS I have a lot of quantitative, so I can't help myself!