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South Alabama (2-2) at Appalachian State (1-3) Oct. 4, 5:00 ESPN3
Here's The Deal: With an easy win over Idaho, USA got back on track after a stunning wipeout loss to Georgia Southern. The defense is terrific against the pass and should be able to keep the Mountaineers in check, but this isn’t a strong running game by any stretch. Appalachian State needs all the breaks it can get after suffering a painful late loss to Southern Miss on a blocked extra points and getting run over by Georgia Southern – it’s due for a big performance.
What’s Going To Happen: Can Marcus Cox help save the Mountaineers in a winnable game? USA is good for a few turnovers a game, but the key will be the ASU defense – can it make the South Alabama slow to a dead stop like it did against Mississippi State and Georgia Southern? ASU will come up with a great performance at home, but it won’t be enough. This will be one of USA’s best defensive performances of the year.
Prediction: South Alabama 14 … Appalachian State 10
Line: South Alabama -3.5 o/u: 48
Must Watch Factor: 5: Gone Girl – 1: Mulaney … 1.5
ULM (1-3) at Arkansas State (2-2) Oct. 4, 7:00 ESPN3
Here's The Deal: If this isn’t for the Sun Belt title, it’ll go a long way to deciding it between two of the league’s biggest stars. ASU hasn’t been able to get its ground game going, but it’s had two weeks off to prepare for the conference slate after getting by Utah State in overtime. Competitive against Tennessee and Miami, the Red Wolves join Georgia Southern as the class of the conference so far. ULM has been underwhelming with no running game and no scoring punch, but it got by Troy in a 22-20 dogfight and it has a win over Wake Forest, the defense has been delicious, holding teams to just 104 yards per game – that’s not what the struggling ASU offense needs.
What’s Going To Happen: Now’s the time the Arkansas State offense will finally show up with a dominant day on the ground. ULM just doesn’t have the offense to keep up with no downfield passing game and little running attack to deal with. The ASU punting game is fantastic and should be the difference – the O will have plenty of short fields coming back the other way.
Prediction: Arkansas State 27 … ULM 10
Line: Arkansas State -12.5 o/u: 51.5
Must Watch Factor: 5: Gone Girl – 1: Mulaney … 2
Georgia State (1-3) at Louisiana-Lafayette (1-3) Oct. 4, 7:00
Here's The Deal: It’s time for the Ragin’ Cajuns to start playing like a true Sun Belt title contender after getting destroyed over the last three weeks. With time off to rest and lick its wounds after all the ugly blowouts, can ULL handle a decent passing game. Georgia State started out playing well in good battles with New Mexico State and Air Force, but didn’t have a prayer against Washington. The passing game is among the best in the Sun Belt, but it has to be to make up for the problems on a defense that can’t stop the pass.
What’s Going To Happen: It’ll be bombs away against for the Georgia State offense that should be able to throw on a secondary that gives up yards to anyone who tries to throw, but comes up with a few picks. ULL will finally get a consistent game out of an offense that hasn’t been able to score, with the real help coming from a massive special teams advantage – the field will be tilted on ULL’s side.
Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette 38 … Georgia State 21
Line: Louisiana-Lafayette -15.5 o/u: 65
Must Watch Factor: 5: Gone Girl – 1: Mulaney … 1.5
Idaho (0-4) at Texas State (2-2) Oct. 4, 7:00 ESPN3
Here's The Deal: With a three overtime thriller over Tulsa, Texas State came up with a key win to potentially turn its season back around. Now comes the relatively easy date with an Idaho team that’s playing better defensively since last year, and is throwing well, but can’t run the ball a lick. The Vandals are improving, even if it doesn’t seem like it with an 0-4 record. They’re overdue for a few breaks.
What’s Going To Happen: The Idaho D won’t hold up. The Bobcat offensive balance will be too much to deal with, and the secondary and pass rush will take control right away. If TXST plays sharp from the start, it should have this wrapped up by halftime.
Prediction: Texas State 45 … Idaho 24
Line: Texas State -17 o/u: 67
Must Watch Factor: 5: Gone Girl – 1: Mulaney … 1.5
Georgia Southern (3-2) at New Mexico State (2-3) Oct. 4, 8:00 ESPN3
Here's The Deal: New Mexico State has lost three straight as the competition has gotten nastier, but it’s still 1-0 in Sun Belt play with the win over Georgia State. The run defense has been a massive problem, giving up 315 yards per game, which is a slight problem going against a Georgia Southern team that’s destroying everyone with its running game, beating USA and Appalachian State over the last two weeks with close to 750 yards on the ground and seven scores.
What’s Going To Happen: The Eagles will continue their hot run with a blown out win over an Aggie team that won’t have a prayer of slowing the O down. NMSU has enough of an offense to come up with a few nice drives and stay alive, but GSU will control the game throughout.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 41 … New Mexico State 20
Line: Georgia Southern -19 o/u: 64
