CFN SBC Week 5 Predictions
Appalachian State (1-2) at Georgia Southern (2-2) Sept. 25, 7:30, ESPNU
Here's The Deal: Two of the Sun Belt’s new guys are also two of the league’s most interesting teams. Appalachian State holds the dubious distinction of being one of the few teams Michigan looked great against, but a good battle in a painful loss to Southern Miss last week – getting a game-tying extra point attempt blocked – showed that there is life. There is hope this year for a solid year with four of the next five games at home after the trip to Atlanta. Georgia Southern is a legitimate threat to finish as the Sun Belt’s top team with a dangerous ground attack and enough talent to have pushed NC State and Georgia Tech hard, losing both games by a combined five points.
Why Appalachian State Might Win: The Mountaineers have the defensive front to get into the backfield and try to attack the GSU ground game before it can get started. They were ripped apart by Michigan to start the season, but that was more about dealing with the power than speed and quickness. ASU has camped out behind the line so far with 22 tackles for loss on the year including nine last week against Southern Miss – the disruption is there.
Why Georgia Southern Might Win: The running game is working against everyone with a good balance and tremendous precision. The Savannah State game skews the overall numbers with 564 yards and ten scores, but the Eagles ran well against NC State and Georgia Tech, too. This is a big play, big reward attack that ASU shouldn’t be able to keep up with. GSU will put up 300 yards on the ground and should control the game – ASU won’t keep QB Kevin Ellison and the lads off the field.
Who To Watch Out For: Georgia Southern sophomore Matt Breida isn’t that big, but he showed last week against South Alabama that he could handle the workload with 21 carries for 187 yards and two scores. Consistent, he’s a flash when he gets the ball on the outside averaging 8.9 yards per pop with 445 yards and seven touchdowns.
What’s Going To Happen: The Georgia Southern machine won’t be stopped now. Appalachian State is improving, but GSU might be the Sun Belt’s best team.
Prediction: Georgia Southern 34 … Appalachian State 17
Line: Georgia Southern -19.5 o/u: 60
Must Watch Factor: 5: Roosevelts: An Intimate History – 1: Red Band Society … 2
South Alabama (1-2) at Idaho (0-3) Sept. 27, 5:00, ESPN3
Here's The Deal: Idaho might not be winning, but it’s interesting with a dangerous offense that has the potential to come up with a big game out of the blue, but can the defense finally stop someone? South Alabama has a better defense than it showed over the last two weeks against Mississippi State and Georgia Southern, but can the offense start to produce? USA is coming off a struggle with the O not working against GSU, while the Vandals couldn’t slow down Ohio. With road games coming up, this is the last time the Vandals are at home until October 18th – they really, really need a win, coming into the game on a ten game losing streak and losers of 20 of their last 21.
Why South Alabama Might Win: The Jaguars should be able to run as much as they want to. Idaho’s defense gives up yards in chunks, and has yet to show anything defensively despite dealing with three relatively anemic offenses. ULM, Western Michigan and Ohio despite doing a decent job of getting into the backfield. South Alabama’s ground game isn’t anything special, but this is the time to give it a try and get Jay Jones and Kendall Houston rolling.
Why Idaho Might Win: Kent State and Mississippi State threw surprisingly well against the USA secondary. The pass rush hasn’t been there so far and the big plays have been few and far between with two picks but not enough key stops over the last two games. Idaho has had to throw to keep up the pace, but it’s working, with Matt Linehan hitting 60% of his throws with three straight games of 324 yard s or more with six touchdowns. The six picks are a problem, but he’s taking a lot of chances because he has to. There’s a chance Idaho will bomb its way to a win.
Who To Watch Out For: Joshua McCain went from being a decent running quarterback for Idaho at times last year to the team’s most dangerous receiver. Extremely quick, he’s been Linehan’s favorite target with a team-leading 20 catches for 371 yards and five scores hitting on lots and lots of big plays, averaging 18.55 yards per grab. His 52-yard touchdown catch late against Ohio made it a game before the defense gave up the points on the ensuing drive, but he’s looking like an all-star with a huge upside.
What’s Going To Happen: South Alabama’s defense is better than it looked against Georgia Southern. The offense might not have the firepower to keep up if Linehan goes off, but the D should be able to do just enough to get by with the road win.
Prediction: South Alabama 37 … Idaho 30
Line: South Alabama -4 o/u: 59
Must Watch Factor: 5: Roosevelts: An Intimate History – 1: Red Band Society … 1.5
Troy (0-4) at ULM (2-1) Sept. 27, 7:00, ESPN3
Here's The Deal: What happened to Troy? The Trojans at least used to be able to rock offensively, but now it’s sputtering and struggling to score and the passing game is woefully inefficient. Getting blasted by Georgia was expected, but losses to Abilene Christian and getting blown out by UAB shows just how far things have fallen. Meanwhile, ULM started out nicely with wins over Wake Forest and Idaho, and now the team should be rested after getting two weeks off after the LSU shutout. The offense hasn’t started to work quite yet, but the defense has been surprisingly tough. With four road games in the next five, there’s no room for a misfire against a struggling team.
Why Troy Might Win: It’s not like the ULM offense is doing much of anything to scare anyone. The ground game has been anemic and the passing game isn’t generating much down the field. The passing game was able to bomb away on a miserable Idaho D, but the line isn’t generating enough of a push and the big drives aren’t there. If the Trojans can somehow find their old groove and start to put up a few points early on, it could be a fight for the Warhawks to scramble back.
Why ULM Might Win: One touchdown pass. The Troy passing game last year had 11 scoring throws after four games, but this year the offense has just one lonely touchdown through the air – coming in the loss to Abilene Christian. The short-range passes are there, and there haven’t been a slew of mistakes, but there’s no pop to overcome the lack of a steady ground game. Basically, the Trojans don’t have anything they can count on, and ULM has the active defensive front that can screw things up behind the line.
Who To Watch Out For: Throw out anything that happened against an LSU defense that was loaded up to stuff him, but ULM’s Centarius Donald has been running well so far with 100 yard games in his first two outings and with three scores against Idaho. Last year the big, pounding back tore through Troy for 114 yards and a score on the way to a Warhawk win, and even though QB Pete Thomas has the upside to potentially carry the team to a Sun Belt title, it’s Donald who’ll be the focal point.
What’s Going To Happen: ULM’s defense will shut down the struggling Troy attack, while the Warhawk offensive balance will keep things moving on the way to an easy win.
Prediction: ULM 34 … Troy 17
Line: ULM -13.5 o/u: 52.5
Must Watch Factor: 5: Roosevelts: An Intimate History – 1: Red Band Society … 1.5
New Mexico State (2-2) at LSU (3-1) Sept. 27, 3:30, SEC Network
Here's The Deal: Someone forgot to give LSU the memo that it’s not supposed to lose at home to New Mexico State(*Mississippi State*). Down 34-10 in the fourth, the Tigers came up with a furious late fourth quarter rally with 19 unanswered points and a missed Hail Mary that almost ended up with one of the greatest comebacks of all-time in the loss to Mississippi State. Now it’s breather time for the team to get its breath back before going on the road to deal with Auburn and Florida, while New Mexico State is hoping to be more than a well-paid road kill. The Aggies lost their last two games including a heartbreaker to New Mexico, but they beat Georgia State for a 1-0 Sun Belt record and hope for a stepping-stone season. This is the second time the two teams have met – LSU won 63-7 in 1996.
Why New Mexico State Might Win: So how did Mississippi State do it? It cranked up a balanced offense and dangerous rushing attack, ripping off over 300 yards and controlling the tempo up until the end. NMSU can’t and won’t run wild on LSU – or at all – but it’s good at moving the chains with a controlled, mid-level passing game that can dink and dunk a little bit. The Aggies have cranked out over 300 yards through the air over the last two games, but …
Why LSU Might Win: The run defense has been a mere rumor. New Mexico does nothing but run, and it did whatever it wanted with 432 yards and three touchdowns a week after UTEP ran amok for 344 yards and five scores. New Mexico State’s defensive front can get powered on up the middle and can’t handle speed and quickness on the outside. LSU’s running game that got stuffed for just 89 yards and a score against MSU should be able to do whatever it wants.
Who To Watch Out For: So now what for the LSU quarterback situation? Anthony Jennings has been the main man, but he only hit half his passes against MSU, couldn’t get the offense moving, and didn’t run anywhere. In came Brandon Harris - who has more talent, but is still just a freshman – and he almost pulled it off hitting 6-of-9 passes for 140 yards and two touchdowns with a Hail Mary pick at the end. You schedule New Mexico State to get some key guys rested, and others more experience. Expect both LSU quarterbacks to see time creating a bit of a controversy going back into SEC play.
What’s Going To Happen: LSU won’t take it easy. It’ll take a quarter to get revved up, and then the ground game will dominate with over 300 yards without breathing hard. New Mexico State’s Tyler Rogers will throw well, but he won’t be able to keep up the pace.
Prediction: LSU 52 … New Mexico State 6
Line: LSU -43 o/u: 54.5
Must Watch Factor: 5: Roosevelts: An Intimate History – 1: Red Band Society … 1
Texas State (1-2) at Tulsa (1-2) Sept. 27, 8:00, ESPNEWS
Here's The Deal: Tulsa used its recent bye week to regroup and refocus following a 50-21 demolition at the hands of Florida Atlantic. The Golden Hurricane is mired in a rut, dropping 11 of its last 15 games, and it’s not getting out until the young kids on the roster play more consistently. Dennis Franchione’s Texas State team shares the same record with Tulsa, but the Bobcats almost upset Illinois in Champaign. Losing by a touchdown at a Big Ten team is progress in San Marcos.
Why Texas State Might Win: Tulsa is yielding a lot of big plays on defense. The Bobcats are capable of keeping the trend going. Texas State is fresh off a tremendous offensive performance, in which QB Tyler Jones threw for 336 yards and four scores, and RB Robert Lowe rushed for 117 yards. The Bobcats’ ability to balance out its attack will frustrate the erratic Hurricane D.
Why Tulsa Might Win: Texas State is the flimsiest D the Hurricane has faced so far this year. And with two weeks of prep time, it should be able to take full advantage. Tulsa will finally unlock its running game now that Zack Langer and Tavarreon Dickerson are healthy, and its opponent ranks 112th nationally in run defense. The Hurricane should generate its own balance with help from star WR Keevan Lucas.
Who To Watch Out For: Tulsa’s odds of rolling on offense skyrocket if someone gets a hat on Texas State LB David Mayo at all times. Mayo has been everywhere for the Bobcats, making 36 stops, or almost three times more than the team’s next busiest tackler.
What’s Going To Happen: A week off couldn’t have come at a better time for Tulsa. Yeah, the team is a work-in-progress, but it’s also catching the right opponent for ramping up the offensive attack. The Hurricane will play its best game since the opener, exploiting the soft Texas State D.
Prediction: Tulsa 35 … Texas State 28
Line: Tulsa -4.5 o/u: 64
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