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Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
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quo vadis Online
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Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
Here's my assessment:

1) Clearly, ECU has the inside track to the G5 Access Bowl spot. It is theirs to lose. The AP and Coaches poll make that clear. No, the CFP is not obligated to follow those polls, but there is no reason to believe that their thinking would be significantly different either. It is clear that the consensus is, as of now, that ECU is the best G5 team and they would certainly get the Access bid if the determination was being done today.

Still, I don't think they are anything like a given for it, for three reasons:

1) They already have a loss, which IMO means they have no further margin for error. One loss is absorbable, but if they were to lose again, I think that loss would loom larger. It will be difficult for the committee to declare a two-loss team as the best of the G5.

ECU is seemingly in good shape because they have nothing but AAC games remaining, but they are not the 85 Bears so many of these games will be dangerous.

2) Another factor that will be in play here is how current #13 South Carolina's season unfolds. If they go on to have an excellent year, that will make ECU's loss to them seem very understandable and it won't hurt is much. But if SC collapses, then the loss will look worse than it does now. SC does play a relatively soft SEC East schedule, but there are minefield games nonetheless. Clearly, it is in ECU's interest that SC keep winning.

3) The fate of UNC and VT. Maybe the biggest reason why the loss to SC hasn't hurt ECU much is that they have those notable wins against ACC rivals, both of which got big play in the national media. But, the lustre of those wins will fade if UNC and VT both fade out. UNC almost certainly will lose a few more times so that win will not look as good two months from now.

More ominous for ECU was VT's loss to Georgia Tech this past weekend. It would be great for ECU if VT were to maintain their status as a ranked team, but that is now questionable. VT's national profile soared thanks to their win at Ohio State, but two losses have diminished. Further losses by VT hurts ECU.

IOW's, it's far too early to be fitting ECU for the G5 slipper. Lots can happen over the next 8 weeks.
(This post was last modified: 09-24-2014 11:06 AM by quo vadis.)
09-24-2014 10:56 AM
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10thMountain Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
If ECU wins out, there's little chance another G5 overtakes them.
09-24-2014 11:03 AM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
If ECU wins out, there is no chance that they are overtaken. Marshall's schedule is awful. Even if VT and UNC aren't great- they're light years better wins than anything Marshall has.
09-24-2014 11:06 AM
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quo vadis Online
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RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
(09-24-2014 11:03 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If ECU wins out, there's little chance another G5 overtakes them.

Agreed. But there are the minefields I noted. 04-cheers
09-24-2014 11:08 AM
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ChrisLords Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
(09-24-2014 11:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-24-2014 11:03 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If ECU wins out, there's little chance another G5 overtakes them.

Agreed. But there are the minefields I noted. 04-cheers

If ECU loses another game, they are not a lock. I am rooting for ECU to take the access spot though.
09-24-2014 11:14 AM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
(09-24-2014 11:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-24-2014 11:03 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If ECU wins out, there's little chance another G5 overtakes them.

Agreed. But there are the minefields I noted. 04-cheers

The only minefield are the 8 games left. There is nothing any other G5 can do about it. Even if VT and UNC are 6-6, it's still better than what Marshall has.
09-24-2014 11:14 AM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
yes, as long as no G5 teams go undefeated.
09-24-2014 11:15 AM
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RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
(09-24-2014 11:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-24-2014 11:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-24-2014 11:03 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If ECU wins out, there's little chance another G5 overtakes them.

Agreed. But there are the minefields I noted. 04-cheers

The only minefield are the 8 games left. There is nothing any other G5 can do about it. Even if VT and UNC are 6-6, it's still better than what Marshall has.

It all depends on how they win. If Marshall blows everyone out and ECU struggles against some weak opponents, then Marshall goes. Don't forget, Cincinnati is still unbeaten at this point.
09-24-2014 11:19 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
(09-24-2014 11:15 AM)john01992 Wrote:  yes, as long as no G5 teams go undefeated.

I think you are wrong. Marshall's SOS is so poor that ECU at 11-1 can easily overtake them.
Miami Ohio 0-4
Rhode Island 0-3
Ohio 2-2
Akron 1-2
is their OOC schedule...
In massey's rating- Marshall doesn't have a team ranked better than 90 this year on their schedule. ECU has 6 of their 12 games better than that.

Just because a team has 1 fewer loss doesn't mean they are better. And, I think this is one of those cases where it comes into play.
09-24-2014 11:23 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
(09-24-2014 11:19 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(09-24-2014 11:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-24-2014 11:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-24-2014 11:03 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If ECU wins out, there's little chance another G5 overtakes them.

Agreed. But there are the minefields I noted. 04-cheers

The only minefield are the 8 games left. There is nothing any other G5 can do about it. Even if VT and UNC are 6-6, it's still better than what Marshall has.

It all depends on how they win. If Marshall blows everyone out and ECU struggles against some weak opponents, then Marshall goes. Don't forget, Cincinnati is still unbeaten at this point.

ECU has to play Cincy so that's out.

The problem is HALF of ECU's schedule is better than Marshall's best game. Think about that. If SOS is supposed to matter so much, there's no way Marshall would go over a 11-1 ECU team with 2 P5 wins- and a win over a possible 10-2 Cincy team(if not 11-1 if Cincy beats OSU).
09-24-2014 11:27 AM
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prp Offline
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RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
ECU has the edge right now, but they are far from the only contender. If they slip up at all, they can be jumped by a few teams. These are the contenders, in my view:

1) ECU - Win out they are likely in.
2) Cincinnati - They need to win one out of the Miami or tOSU games and win out in conference play. If both ECU and Cincinnati make it to their November showdown with one loss each, that game could very well determine who wins the AAC and gets the spot.
3) Boise State - Only loss is to a ranked Ole Miss team. They'll have to win out and hope for a multi-loss AAC champion. Winning against BYU, if BYU is still undefeated and ranked when they meet, could move them ahead of the other contenders.
4) Nevada - Very underrated team. Matchups against Boise State and BYU will give them the chance to move up in the rankings.
5) NIU - Don't really have the SoS the rest of the way to move ahead of the other contenders without help.
6) Marshall - Pretty much have to go undefeated, but I'm still not sure that would be enough to place them ahead of any of the above teams if any of them is on one loss.
09-24-2014 11:35 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
I'd push Marshall ahead of NIU for sure. The MAC is putrid this year and they got blown up by Arkansas. Probably right on Boise and Nevada being 3/4.
09-24-2014 11:37 AM
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quo vadis Online
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RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
(09-24-2014 11:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-24-2014 11:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(09-24-2014 11:03 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If ECU wins out, there's little chance another G5 overtakes them.

Agreed. But there are the minefields I noted. 04-cheers

The only minefield are the 8 games left. There is nothing any other G5 can do about it. Even if VT and UNC are 6-6, it's still better than what Marshall has.

If Marshall is unbeaten, and SC, UNC, and VT all fade, then I bet Marshall gets the spot.
09-24-2014 11:43 AM
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ecu92 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
I hope we're still talking about this in late October. But it's all academic until we get past that road trip to Cincinnati. We've got a big bullseye on our chest right now.
09-24-2014 12:11 PM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
(09-24-2014 11:03 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If ECU wins out, there's little chance another G5 overtakes them.
If Cincinnati beats Ohio State in the horseshoe - and wins out - there won't be anything ECU can do. That would give ECU 2 losses, and UC a big leg up. So don't go counting chickens yet.
09-24-2014 12:15 PM
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NBPirate Offline
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RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
(09-24-2014 12:15 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  
(09-24-2014 11:03 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If ECU wins out, there's little chance another G5 overtakes them.
If Cincinnati beats Ohio State in the horseshoe - and wins out - there won't be anything ECU can do. That would give ECU 2 losses, and UC a big leg up. So don't go counting chickens yet.

Well ECU would still decide its own destiny then since we play Cincy. We beat them and we're in. So in fact, there IS something we can do about it.
09-24-2014 12:16 PM
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bitcruncher Offline
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RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
However, if Cincy wins out, ECU loses that game. All of your marbles are in one basket right now.
09-24-2014 12:26 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
I guess you can say ECU and Cincy both control their own destiny. If either win out, they will be the G5 rep.
09-24-2014 12:29 PM
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Cnelson203 Offline
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RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
Marshall has a weak schedule??? I didn't know that.

Seriously, I agree, at this point, ECU is the team to beat in the race to the Access Bowl. No arguments from me on that point.
09-24-2014 12:34 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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RE: Is ECU a given for the G5 Access Bowl spot?
(09-24-2014 12:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I guess you can say ECU and Cincy both control their own destiny. If either win out, they will be the G5 rep.

Memphis, Temple and Boise State still are in the G5 representative conversation as well.
09-24-2014 12:42 PM
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