EagleRockCafe
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RE: John Kerry: Climate Change As Urgent A Threat As ISIS, Ebola…
(09-22-2014 03:49 PM)UCF08 Wrote: Quote:1)There hasn't been any global warming since 1997: If nothing changes in the next year, we're going to have kids who graduate from high school who will have never seen any "global warming" during their lifetimes. That's right; the temperature of the planet has essentially been flat for 17 years. This isn't a controversial assertion either. Even the former Director of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, Phil Jones, admits that it's true. Since the planet was cooling from 1940-1975 and the upswing in temperature afterward only lasted 22 years, a 17 year pause is a big deal. It also begs an obvious question: How can we be experiencing global warming if there's no actual "global warming?"
Per - NOAA
In addition to warming caused by greenhouse gases, the climate system also has natural variability, which is why one year’s temperature is different from the next. This natural variability also can result in the climate having short periods of cooling or no trend, even with strong overall warming due to increasing greenhouse gases. The table below, based on the analysis by Easterling and Wehner shows the probability that any ten year period will include negative trends of various magnitudes. Since 1975 there have been similar and longer periods of time where the globally averaged surface air temperature showed a slight cooling (1977-1985 and 1981-1989), yet the climate has warmed more in the past 33 years than any other time in our instrumental record. The results of Easterling and Wehner’s analysis are consistent with the model simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and show that during the 21st century climate can and likely will experience decadal periods where the globally averaged surface air temperature show no trend or even cooling in the presence of a longer-term warming signal. Multiple decadal records are necessary in order to detect and attribute the effect of greenhouse gas increases in the climate system. These kinds of analyses have been performed extensively and reported on by the IPCC 2007 Assessments.
In short, they're intentionally measure a trough to a trough, while ignoring the overall rise in peaks between them and the actual trend.
Quote:2) There is no scientific consensus that global warming is occurring and caused by man: Questions are not decided by "consensus." In fact, many scientific theories that were once widely believed to be true were made irrelevant by new evidence. Just to name one of many, many examples, in the early seventies, scientists believed global cooling was occurring. However, once the planet started to warm up, they changed their minds. Yet, the primary "scientific" argument for global warming is that there is a "scientific consensus" that it's occurring. Setting aside the fact that's not a scientific argument, even if that ever was true (and it really wasn't), it's certainly not true anymore. Over 31,000 scientists have signed on to a petition saying humans aren't causing global warming. More than 1000 scientists signed on to another report saying there is no global warming at all. There are tens of thousands of well-educated, mainstream scientists who do not agree that global warming is occurring at all and people who share their opinion are taking a position grounded in science.
This list has been thoroughly debunked to such an extent I'm actually surprised even conservatives are still pushing it. For example "approved names on the list included fictional characters from the television show M*A*S*H,[20] the movie Star Wars,[19] Spice Girls group member Geri Halliwell, English naturalist Charles Darwin (d. 1882) and prank names such as "I. C. Ewe".[21] When questioned about the pop singer during a telephone interview with Joseph Hubert of the Associated Press, Robinson acknowledged that her endorsement and degree in microbiology was inauthentic, remarking "When we're getting thousands of signatures there's no way of filtering out a fake".[20] A cursory examination by Todd Shelly of the Hawaii Reporter revealed duplicate entries, single names lacking any initial, and even corporate names. "These examples underscore a major weakness of the list: there is no way to check the authenticity of the names. Names are given, but no identifying information (e.g., institutional affiliation) is provided."[22].
Quote:3) Arctic ice is up 50% since 2012: The loss of Arctic ice has been a big talking point for people who believe global warming is occurring. Some people have even predicted that all of the Arctic ice would melt by now because of global warming. Yet, Arctic ice is up 50% since 2012. How much Arctic ice really matters is an open question since the very limited evidence we have suggests that a few decades ago, there was less ice than there is today, but the same people who thought the drop in ice was noteworthy should at least agree that the increase is important as well.
Again, this is another example of them using outlying years to try and negate the overall trends which are obvious when you look at the data as a whole. 2012 had the lowest amount of arctic ice on record, far below any other year on record, and pointing to the fact that neither 2013 nor 2014 reached that low of ice levels while ignoring the steady, multidecade trend isn't how good science is conducted. Despite keeping records for 40 years now, the three lowest years of artic ice were 2012, 2011, and 2007. There is a clear trend if you'd be willing to look. Hell, this 50% gain you're talking about from 2012-2014 still resulted in the 6th lowest level of arctic ice on record (per - USA Today)
Quote:4) Climate models showing global warming have been wrong over and over: These future projections of what global warming will do to the planet have been based on climate models. Essentially, scientists make assumptions about how much of an impact different factors will have; they guess how much of a change there will be and then they project changes over time. Unfortunately, almost all of these models showing huge temperature gains have turned out to be wrong.
That human models of extremely complicated natural phenomena show short term variation from actual results doesn't somehow wholly negate the theory in it's entirety. I don't even understand how this can be seen as a compelling argument unless you don't understand the basics behind the scientific process and analyzing data.
Nice try
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