RE: 3-1
I think NIU will go 10-2, barring no injuries and they improve as the season goes on. Saying they'll go undefeated the rest of the regular season is possible of course, but too much to be presumptive about, given that they are adjusting, etc. They're lucky that Toledo's D is #125 in ESPN's defense efficiency (but #23 in offense efficiency, where NIU is #36). Those efficiencies take the schedule & margins in account, etc.
The MAC this year is down with many of it's teams to varying degrees, so I think you'll see a greater share of upsets or close games that you'd expect NOT to be close.
Chances of NIU victory:
Toledo: 57% - Toledo is DANGEROUS. And they've been battle tested with a tough schedule.
CMU: 60-80% - Depends on if they have their stah players healthy that they rely on and how well they're gelling; they can play great or real bad
@WMU: 62% - Last game of the reg season, so this could be bigger, or shrink a bit by season's end; WMU is young, sloppy, but dangerous this year
@BSU: 65% - Not a good O, not stifiling D. Not dangerous if you play a solid game.
@Ohio: 70% - Just a blah team again.
IMO, they'll have a MAC loss. Wouldn't be completely shocked at 2, but surprised. Of course, this "don't expect pure/raw winning consistency" doesn't just hold for NIU, but also BGSU & Toledo, too of course.
NIU is the favorite to win the West, and "should", with Toledo & CMU at home, while BSU not being great this year, and WMU being dangerous but not a huge threat if you're rolling the way you're supposed to and don't overlook them for the MACC.
Access Bowl?
Cinci had to BATTLE to beat Miami, even though they whipped Toledo (even though yards were almost equal). Cinci's OOC schedule is too tough outside of that, so they won't be an Access Bowl entry. If NIU goes 11-2 (with MACC win) -- they'll be above Cinci in any committee's eyes.
Marshall will have to lose the CUSAC. They're good this year. Easy schedule. Easier than NIU's. If they lose a game, which they could -- if NIU goes 12-1, NIU will be the better-to-pick team.
ECU would have to have 2 more losses for NIU to be above them. Which could happen, but don't count on it. AAC would have to beat each other up, making ECU go 9-3 with their losses at the latter part of the season. NIU going 12-1, NIU would be chosen above them.
NIU could win out -- including the MACC. Certainly wouldn't be a shocker. A bit surprising, for the sake of winning ALL non-gimmie games with that consistency... and winning the MACC game which they haven't been consistent on in the past either. It'd be about as surprising as Marshall going undefeated -- or ECU going undefeated the rest of the way.
If they do go 12-1, I would say there's a chance they COULD go to Access bowl -- but they'll need luck on their side. Hey, stranger things have happened... like NIU going to the Orange Bowl with 1 loss, being the first mid-major to do so. :)
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