Nick’s Picks enter week four as a wounded animal with a 26-10 (72%) record, far below the 80% historical average. This week there are a few games where MAC teams have a chance to make some national headlines.

Akron plays a very good Marshall team and may be one of the Herd’s last hurdles to an undefeated season in the newly re-vamped C-USA. Bowling Green is fresh from beating a Big Ten team at home and now faces a much more difficult opponent when traveling to Wisconsin. And NIU can really make a statement for the MAC and their program if they are able to beat a SEC team on road as they travel to Arkansas Saturday night.

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Michigan State 51 – Eastern 7
The Eagles have no shot at winning this game and historically Michigan State does not run up the scores on their intra-state MAC foes. I expect early and often substitutions from the Spartans and a very comfortable victory.

Wisconsin 44 – BGSU 27
I’m intrigued by this contest…will the Falcon team that played very spirited last week show up in Madison or will the team that tripped on their shoelaces getting off of the bus at Western Kentucky be on the field?

Marshall 35 – Akron 27
The Zips are the MAC’s most improved team and can win this game at home against their former MAC East foe…again, if you look at Marshall’s schedule this is really their “trap” game before they enter league play next week.

Kansas 21 – Central 20
No real clue on picking this game…Kansas is horrible but the 37-point beat-down that Syracuse put on the Chips last week in Mount Pleasant means there are issues with this team too. Each team enters the game feeling they are the better team.

Buffalo 30 – Norfolk St 14
NSU has lost to Maine, Liberty and William & Mary scoring only 20-points in those combined games. Buffalo struggled to beat Duquesne and really needs a good offensive outing before starting league play.

Penn State 34 – UMass 13
The Minutemen nearly beat Colorado & Vanderbilt over the past two weeks; this week’s game will not be that close.

Cincinnati 54 – Miami 17
Growing up in the 1970s & early 1980s I clearly remember Miami just dominating this series for so many years; now the tables have totally turned and the Bearcats have been the far superior program for more than a decade.

Toledo 37 – Ball State 31
A huge game in the MAC West as the winner will be still standing to make their game against NIU meaningful while the loser will be 1-3 and all but out of any MAC bowl discussion. Ball State has struggled offensively to date while Toledo’s defense has been abysmal. The difference is Toledo’s defense will not be facing a QB name Mauk or Kiel.

Ohio 24 – Idaho 16
The Bobcats offense has really struggled in 2014 and must beat a team like Idaho at home; the Vandals lost two straight shoot outs to UL-Monroe & Western Michigan. This game should be more low-scoring.

Western 38 – Murray St 20
Unlike last year where the Broncos lost at home to a FBS/I-AA foe they will not have too many problems with these Racers.

Arkansas 34 – NIU 26
A win at Arkansas will get the Huskies ranked…the Razerbacks put a whooping on Texas Tech last week and will not overlook Northern. If NIU wins then the discussions around another undefeated season begins.

In 2005 Miami hammered UC 44-16 and had won 4 out of the last 5. Since then UC has won 8 in a row, mostly easy. This is not yet domination by UC for well over a decade. It just seems that way.

(09-17-2014 09:59 PM)DICK Wrote:  In 2005 Miami hammered UC 44-16 and had won 4 out of the last 5. Since then UC has won 8 in a row, mostly easy. This is not yet domination by UC for well over a decade. It just seems that way.

Indeed, I've looked at that 2005 Victory Bell win as Miami's finest hour as far as our modern football history goes. The Big Ben/Hoeppner years were in recent memory, Shane Montgomery was a young hot coach in his first year, and we were in position to win the MAC East again. That didn't happen, and when Monty had to replace the senior class we sunk to 2-10. We haven't recovered since then, save for the 2010 season that might've hurt us in the long run. Then again, if we had hired an actual coach after Haywood (see: NIU) no one would've cared about him.

Quote:Toledo 37 – Ball State 31
A huge game in the MAC West as the winner will be still standing to make their game against NIU meaningful while the loser will be 1-3 and all but out of any MAC bowl discussion. Ball State has struggled offensively to date while Toledo’s defense has been abysmal. The difference is Toledo’s defense will not be facing a QB name Mauk or Kiel.

I think BSU's offense is Not Good. But yes, neither is Toledo's D. But BSU's D is pretty good.

I would say: Toledo 33, BSU 24 -- a little lower scoring.

Quote:Western 38 – Murray St 20
Unlike last year where the Broncos lost at home to a FBS/I-AA foe they will not have too many problems with these Racers.

Sounds about right. But it's supposed to thunderstorm, although it's too soon to tell. If it does rain a lot, that gives WMU an extra point advantage with it's great running game. If it does rain a good amount, I'd say 35-14. If it doesn't, I'd say 42-24.

Quote:Arkansas 34 – NIU 26
A win at Arkansas will get the Huskies ranked…the Razerbacks put a whooping on Texas Tech last week and will not overlook Northern. If NIU wins then the discussions around another undefeated season begins.

Who knows how this will go, but it's going to be a running game. If NIU doesn't turn the ball over, and Arkansas plays not-so-smoothly, NIU will come within ~TD. But I see NIU losing by 14 to 21pts as the best bet. But I wouldn't be shocked if it becomes a barn-burner and NIU pulls out a close-call upset -- just kinda surprised.

The MAC will likely have as many as 7 teams with a 2-2 record after this weekend.

BSU gave up 27 to Indiana State, and Iowa has no firepower. Toledo scored against two pretty good D's in the previous weeks. If we actually make some field goals (it's baffling our guy had missed some) we score a little more on those teams. Ball State doesn't have a horrid D, but IMO we are the best offense they have played so far. I'm guessing 5+ TD's with a fg or two amounting to points in the high 30's or more. Can Toledo stop BSU after two drubbings is on the minds of our fans.

(09-18-2014 09:17 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  BSU gave up 27 to Indiana State, and Iowa has no firepower. Toledo scored against two pretty good D's in the previous weeks. If we actually make some field goals (it's baffling our guy had missed some) we score a little more on those teams. Ball State doesn't have a horrid D, but IMO we are the best offense they have played so far. I'm guessing 5+ TD's with a fg or two amounting to points in the high 30's or more. Can Toledo stop BSU after two drubbings is on the minds of our fans.

I can't see BSU scoring enough to beat Toledo.

(09-17-2014 10:11 AM)Nick in Cleveland Wrote:  Arkansas 34 – NIU 26
A win at Arkansas will get the Huskies ranked…the Razerbacks put a whooping on Texas Tech last week and will not overlook Northern. If NIU wins then the discussions around another undefeated season begins.

No...it won't...

^^^He's right, NIU is consistently overlooked in the polls. It usually takes us until Week 10 or 11 to finally get ranked.

Heck Marshall has 25 and 28 votes in the two polls and they beat a 1-AA, Miami, and Ohio. Really?!?

We have 10 votes and no votes in the two polls with a stronger SOS schedule so far.

Where in my post did I reference anything about Marshall??? Don't make this into something it isn't. All I am saying is that currently, NIU is ranked AHEAD of Arkansas and is only getting votes in one poll... Simply beating Arkansas will not catapult them 15 or so spots into the top 25...

Not saying anything about how good your team is or isn't at all...just simply looking at numbers...

Quote:Where in my post did I reference anything about Marshall??? Don't make this into something it isn't.

He wasn't saying it in response to you being a fan. He was using it as a point of reference -- Marshall just happening to be a team (whether you're a fan or not) -- that has more votes than NIU, with a weaker schedule than NIU -- as his point that NIU always starts off overlooked. To be fair though, pre-season, Marshall was expected to be Good, regardless of schedule. That is a drawback of poll-based stuff, if both teams win-out (see NIU vs Fresno poll-race last year).

But you're right about Arkansas being overlooked, but they kind of deserve it given them basically being a better-than-average mid-major team in performance -- but being in the SEC, one is going to be battle-tested awfully quick, so it doesn't matter if an SEC team starts out with 0 votes, or by week 3 in non-conf only 10 -- if they tear through things. You're going to a BCS Bowl with only 1 loss if you're in the SEC -- possibly 2 losses if your SoS is good, even if ya got 0 votes for the first 3 weeks.

(09-18-2014 02:28 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:Where in my post did I reference anything about Marshall??? Don't make this into something it isn't.

He wasn't saying it in response to you being a fan. He was using it as a point of reference -- Marshall just happening to be a team (whether you're a fan or not) -- that has more votes than NIU, with a weaker schedule than NIU -- as his point that NIU always starts off overlooked. To be fair though, pre-season, Marshall was expected to be Good, regardless of schedule. That is a drawback of poll-based stuff, if both teams win-out (see NIU vs Fresno poll-race last year).

But you're right about Arkansas being overlooked, but they kind of deserve it given them basically being a better-than-average mid-major team in performance -- but being in the SEC, one is going to be battle-tested awfully quick, so it doesn't matter if an SEC team starts out with 0 votes, or by week 3 in non-conf only 10 -- if they tear through things. You're going to a BCS Bowl with only 1 loss if you're in the SEC -- possibly 2 losses if your SoS is good, even if ya got 0 votes for the first 3 weeks.

Zero argument there.... But I happen to think NIU is better than what they're getting credit for right now... So just keep winning and they will be ranked by year's end.. but just like us, one loss will send a team tumbling out of the top 25 faster than anything..

(09-18-2014 01:10 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  ^^^He's right, NIU is consistently overlooked in the polls. It usually takes us until Week 10 or 11 to finally get ranked.

Heck Marshall has 25 and 28 votes in the two polls and they beat a 1-AA, Miami, and Ohio. Really?!?

We have 10 votes and no votes in the two polls with a stronger SOS schedule so far.

You are not going to get anyone to notice you when you are only beating MW and B1G teams. You have to beat teams from a conference that will impress people, like the MAC. Marshall has taken down two MAC teams and if they get their third this week, then they will surely break the top 25...maybe top 20.

Anyway, don"t worry. In a few weeks you will be playing some real competition and if you can win, then you will turn heads and get votes.

I think CMU should beat Kansas. From what I have seen and heard, the Rawls thing was a real blow to morale, and the timing of it -- found out less than 1/2 day before the game -- didn't allow the team much time to recover. It didn't help that we were playing arguably the best defensive team on our schedule in Syracuse, but the OL and WRs really had a subpar performance (confusion on routes and blocking scheme), and that affected our QB and RB play as well.

With a week to prepare, I think Lavallii or another back will step up, the OL will be looking for redemption, and there will be better communication in the passing game. Add in that Kansas appears to have a poor defense and one-dimensional offense, and our chances get even better. However...there is expected to be some very nasty weather. It could come down to whichever team is able to maintain focus in the face of heavy rain, storm delays, or whatever.

(09-17-2014 10:11 AM)Nick in Cleveland Wrote:  Nick’s Picks enter week four as a wounded animal with a 26-10 (72%) record, far below the 80% historical average. This week there are a few games where MAC teams have a chance to make some national headlines.

Akron plays a very good Marshall team and may be one of the Herd’s last hurdles to an undefeated season in the newly re-vamped C-USA. Bowling Green is fresh from beating a Big Ten team at home and now faces a much more difficult opponent when traveling to Wisconsin. And NIU can really make a statement for the MAC and their program if they are able to beat a SEC team on road as they travel to Arkansas Saturday night.

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Michigan State 51 – Eastern 7
The Eagles have no shot at winning this game and historically Michigan State does not run up the scores on their intra-state MAC foes. I expect early and often substitutions from the Spartans and a very comfortable victory.

Wisconsin 44 – BGSU 27
I’m intrigued by this contest…will the Falcon team that played very spirited last week show up in Madison or will the team that tripped on their shoelaces getting off of the bus at Western Kentucky be on the field?

Marshall 35 – Akron 27
The Zips are the MAC’s most improved team and can win this game at home against their former MAC East foe…again, if you look at Marshall’s schedule this is really their “trap” game before they enter league play next week.

Kansas 21 – Central 20
No real clue on picking this game…Kansas is horrible but the 37-point beat-down that Syracuse put on the Chips last week in Mount Pleasant means there are issues with this team too. Each team enters the game feeling they are the better team.

Buffalo 30 – Norfolk St 14
NSU has lost to Maine, Liberty and William & Mary scoring only 20-points in those combined games. Buffalo struggled to beat Duquesne and really needs a good offensive outing before starting league play.

Penn State 34 – UMass 13
The Minutemen nearly beat Colorado & Vanderbilt over the past two weeks; this week’s game will not be that close.

Cincinnati 54 – Miami 17
Growing up in the 1970s & early 1980s I clearly remember Miami just dominating this series for so many years; now the tables have totally turned and the Bearcats have been the far superior program for more than a decade.

Toledo 37 – Ball State 31
A huge game in the MAC West as the winner will be still standing to make their game against NIU meaningful while the loser will be 1-3 and all but out of any MAC bowl discussion. Ball State has struggled offensively to date while Toledo’s defense has been abysmal. The difference is Toledo’s defense will not be facing a QB name Mauk or Kiel.

Ohio 24 – Idaho 16
The Bobcats offense has really struggled in 2014 and must beat a team like Idaho at home; the Vandals lost two straight shoot outs to UL-Monroe & Western Michigan. This game should be more low-scoring.

Western 38 – Murray St 20
Unlike last year where the Broncos lost at home to a FBS/I-AA foe they will not have too many problems with these Racers.

Arkansas 34 – NIU 26
A win at Arkansas will get the Huskies ranked…the Razerbacks put a whooping on Texas Tech last week and will not overlook Northern. If NIU wins then the discussions around another undefeated season begins.

I'm betting that Ohio sticks it to Idaho.

The best game of the day should be a very improved Akron team vs. a good Marshall team.

I think WMU is a young team which will get better and better. That RB Franklin is an amazing freshman.

western isn't real deep, but if they stay fairly healthy they could be spoilers. franklin is legit.

arkansas will be a tough one