RE: Forde Yard Dash mentions NIU
If NIU beats Arkansas (30% chance in my estimation) -- it would put NIU in the driver's seat, neck and neck with ECU. But they'd have to have convincing wins to make up for ECU's tougher schedule + Arkansas to do decently well in the SEC, while VaTech not winning their division of the ACC.
My best chances to go, from 0-loss or 1-loss teams thus far (not necessarily who IS better; better chances to end up as best pick):
1. ECU (L SCarolina, W VaTech; NEEDS WINS: @UNC, @Cinci, UCF)
2. Marshall (NEEDS WINS: @Akron, Midd-Tenn, @Old-Dom, CUSAC)
3. NIU (W NorthW; NEEDS WINS: @Arkansas*, Toledo, CMU, MACC)
4. Memphis (L UCLA; NEEDS WINS: @Ole Miss, Middle-Tenn, @Cinci)
5. Cinci (W Toledo; NEEDS WINS: @OSU*, @Miami-FL, Memphis, ECU)
6. Akron (L Penn State; NEEDS WINS: Marshall, @Pitt, BGSU, MACC)
7. Old Dominion (L NC-State; NEEDS WINS: Marshall, Middle-Tenn, @Vandy, LA-Tech, CUSAC)
7. BGSU (L W. Kent, W Indiana; NEEDS WINS: @Wisconsin, @Akron, @Toledo, MACC)
9. Middle Tennessee (L Minnesota; NEEDS WINS: BYU, @Marshall, @Memphis, CUSAC)
10. LA-Tech (L Oklahoma; @Auburn, UTEP, @Old-Dom, CUSAC)
11. UTEP (L TexTech; NEEDS WINS: @KanState, @LaTech, Midd-Tenn, CUSAC)
* NIU & Cinci only undefeated teams besides Marshall. Marshall cannot afford to lose ANY games if there's any other key 1-loss teams remaining.
- NIU can afford to lose Arkansas, technically, if ECU loses another game and Cinci loses two games -- while Marshall taking a loss by someone, which is quite possible
- Cinci can afford to lose to Ohio State if they beat Miami-FL, Memphis, and ECU, if NIU does not beat Arkansas
If NIU beats Arkansas, they'll only be competing with ECU/Cinci if they go undefeated, and between those two, one is going to have an extra loss. You want Cinci to beat ECU, as Cinci will most likely lose 2 other games.
(This post was last modified: 09-17-2014 04:29 PM by toddjnsn.)
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