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G5: A Two Horse Race
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FIUFan Offline
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Post: #1
G5: A Two Horse Race
After 3 weeks of play, it's looking clear that C-USA's challenger for the top spot will be the MWC. Looking at the each conferences number of teams with winning records you have (lead dogs):

1.) C-USA - 6 (Marshall, La Tech)
2.) MWC - 6 (Boise St, Utah St)
3.) MAC - 3 (N. Ill, BGSU)
4.) AAC - 2 (Cincy, ECU)
5.) SBC - 2 (ULM)

Given that 60-70% of the OOC schedule is complete, there is a very high likelihood that the margins above will not only hold but strengthen. It's a foregone conclusion now that the G5 winner will come from C-USA or the MW.

The real race then turns to the Access Bowl invite. I'd rank the top 5 for that right now: 1.) Cincy; 2.) Marshall; 3.) ECU; 4.) N. Ill and 5.) Boise St. [La Tech having not beaten a P5 and still having Auburn on the schedule is a real dark horse].

A one loss BYU would be most deserving but without a conference the slot is unattainable.
09-15-2014 05:12 PM
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Niner National Offline
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Post: #2
RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
I'd put Marshall 3rd behind ECU and Cincy right now for the Access Bowl. ECU has a signature win. If they lose this weekend, that'll probably take them out of the running vs an undefeated Marshall & a 1 loss Cincy, but for now, have to put them above Marshall.
09-15-2014 05:24 PM
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BamaScorpio69 Offline
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RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
Given how weak the AAC is this year, if ECU beats UNC this weekend the Pirates will be the team to beat for the Access Bowl invite. If the Pirates lose to UNC, then it is a wide open race for that slot.

For now I would rank the teams as follow:

1. ECU
2. Marshall
3. UC
4. Northern Illinois
5. Boise State
09-15-2014 05:27 PM
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BeliefBlazer Offline
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Post: #4
RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
Yup. A 1 loss ECU would get in ahead of Marshall.
09-15-2014 05:28 PM
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olliebaba Offline
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Post: #5
RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
Is there a pre-requisite that the Access Bowl invitee win it's conference too?
09-15-2014 05:34 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 05:12 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  After 3 weeks of play, it's looking clear that C-USA's challenger for the top spot will be the MWC. Looking at the each conferences number of teams with winning records you have (lead dogs):

1.) C-USA - 6 (Marshall, La Tech)
2.) MWC - 6 (Boise St, Utah St)
3.) MAC - 3 (N. Ill, BGSU)
4.) AAC - 2 (Cincy, ECU)
5.) SBC - 2 (ULM)

Given that 60-70% of the OOC schedule is complete, there is a very high likelihood that the margins above will not only hold but strengthen. It's a foregone conclusion now that the G5 winner will come from C-USA or the MW.

The real race then turns to the Access Bowl invite. I'd rank the top 5 for that right now: 1.) Cincy; 2.) Marshall; 3.) ECU; 4.) N. Ill and 5.) Boise St. [La Tech having not beaten a P5 and still having Auburn on the schedule is a real dark horse].

A one loss BYU would be most deserving but without a conference the slot is unattainable.

Like people stated in the preseason a couple of AAC teams would have to lose games in order for any other conference champion to have a legit shot at the Access bowl. Take a look at the latest polls and you will see that a 1 loss AAC team received more votes in all of the rankings than any other G5, including the undefeated G5's. The odds on favorite to get the Access bowl invite is Cincinnati, because they have winnable games against tOSU the U coming up. They also get ECU in Cincinnati and they don't have to play UCF.

Absent an AAC team losing at least 2 games it is not likely that any other team other than NIU would have a legit shot, but they have to beat Arkansas this weekend. All of the other teams schedules are too light, but if Boise State gets by BYU and then runs the table in the MWC then they will probably get the bid over an undefeated Marshall. Some of you posters are focusing too much on your conference teams beating low end G5 teams from G5 conferences. Some of you have not noticed that the MAC has a 3-5 record record against the B10. That means more in the rankings than a conference beating G5

http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings
http://realtimerpi.com/college_football/...f_Men.html

If I had to rank the G5 leaders as of right now I would list them as:

1. ECU
2. Marshall (but they are likely to be getting passed by Cincinnati soon in the polls)
3. Cincinnati
4. NIU
5. Boise State
6. UCF (Don't count them out yet they have only lost to 2 P5 programs who are in the rankings and they still have a ranked BYU and possibly ranked ECU to go. If they get on a roll they can finish 10-2)
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2014 05:39 PM by PirateMarv.)
09-15-2014 05:36 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 05:34 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  Is there a pre-requisite that the Access Bowl invitee win it's conference too?

Highest ranked conference champion.
09-15-2014 05:37 PM
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BeliefBlazer Offline
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Post: #8
RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 05:37 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  
(09-15-2014 05:34 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  Is there a pre-requisite that the Access Bowl invitee win it's conference too?

Highest ranked conference champion.

and the AAC has no title game until next year. One less chance for a loss.
09-15-2014 05:42 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #9
RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 05:12 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  After 3 weeks of play, it's looking clear that C-USA's challenger for the top spot will be the MWC. Looking at the each conferences number of teams with winning records you have (lead dogs):

1.) C-USA - 6 (Marshall, La Tech)
2.) MWC - 6 (Boise St, Utah St)
3.) MAC - 3 (N. Ill, BGSU)
4.) AAC - 2 (Cincy, ECU)
5.) SBC - 2 (ULM)

Given that 60-70% of the OOC schedule is complete, there is a very high likelihood that the margins above will not only hold but strengthen. It's a foregone conclusion now that the G5 winner will come from C-USA or the MW.

The real race then turns to the Access Bowl invite. I'd rank the top 5 for that right now: 1.) Cincy; 2.) Marshall; 3.) ECU; 4.) N. Ill and 5.) Boise St. [La Tech having not beaten a P5 and still having Auburn on the schedule is a real dark horse].

A one loss BYU would be most deserving but without a conference the slot is unattainable.

Is the best conference award decided at the end of the regular season--or after the bowls?
09-15-2014 05:44 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 05:42 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  
(09-15-2014 05:37 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  
(09-15-2014 05:34 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  Is there a pre-requisite that the Access Bowl invitee win it's conference too?

Highest ranked conference champion.

and the AAC has no title game until next year. One less chance for a loss.

Or look at it this way; Marshall gets a conference championship game, which would be one more opportunity for the poll voters to see them. As long as they get a UTSA in that game then they will be fine. The problem for Marshall is that they can not even lose 1 game. That is tough.
09-15-2014 05:45 PM
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BamaScorpio69 Offline
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RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 05:36 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  
(09-15-2014 05:12 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  After 3 weeks of play, it's looking clear that C-USA's challenger for the top spot will be the MWC. Looking at the each conferences number of teams with winning records you have (lead dogs):

1.) C-USA - 6 (Marshall, La Tech)
2.) MWC - 6 (Boise St, Utah St)
3.) MAC - 3 (N. Ill, BGSU)
4.) AAC - 2 (Cincy, ECU)
5.) SBC - 2 (ULM)

Given that 60-70% of the OOC schedule is complete, there is a very high likelihood that the margins above will not only hold but strengthen. It's a foregone conclusion now that the G5 winner will come from C-USA or the MW.

The real race then turns to the Access Bowl invite. I'd rank the top 5 for that right now: 1.) Cincy; 2.) Marshall; 3.) ECU; 4.) N. Ill and 5.) Boise St. [La Tech having not beaten a P5 and still having Auburn on the schedule is a real dark horse].

A one loss BYU would be most deserving but without a conference the slot is unattainable.

Like people stated in the preseason a couple of AAC teams would have to lose games in order for any other conference champion to have a legit shot at the Access bowl.

1. ECU
2. Marshall (but they are likely to be getting passed by Cincinnati soon in the polls)
3. Cincinnati
4. NIU
5. Boise State
6. UCF (Don't count them out yet they have only lost to 2 P5 programs who are in the rankings and they still have a ranked BYU and possibly ranked ECU to go. If they get on a roll they can finish 10-2)

It's not a matter of the AAC teams having to lose a couple of games for another G5 program to have a shot at the Access Bowl. It's a matter of scheduling and this year ECU could benefit from it or be hurt by it. No two loss G-5 champ is going to finish ahead of a undefeated G-5 conference champ and I would bet the farm on that.

And again, the AAC is weak this year so even a one-loss UC will have a difficult time getting the access bowl slot over a potentially undefeated Marshall or maybe even an undefeated Northern Illinois.

And remember, the polls aren't going to determine who gets that slot. The selection committee will determine that with their own rankings.
09-15-2014 05:59 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 05:59 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  
(09-15-2014 05:36 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  
(09-15-2014 05:12 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  After 3 weeks of play, it's looking clear that C-USA's challenger for the top spot will be the MWC. Looking at the each conferences number of teams with winning records you have (lead dogs):

1.) C-USA - 6 (Marshall, La Tech)
2.) MWC - 6 (Boise St, Utah St)
3.) MAC - 3 (N. Ill, BGSU)
4.) AAC - 2 (Cincy, ECU)
5.) SBC - 2 (ULM)

Given that 60-70% of the OOC schedule is complete, there is a very high likelihood that the margins above will not only hold but strengthen. It's a foregone conclusion now that the G5 winner will come from C-USA or the MW.

The real race then turns to the Access Bowl invite. I'd rank the top 5 for that right now: 1.) Cincy; 2.) Marshall; 3.) ECU; 4.) N. Ill and 5.) Boise St. [La Tech having not beaten a P5 and still having Auburn on the schedule is a real dark horse].

A one loss BYU would be most deserving but without a conference the slot is unattainable.

Like people stated in the preseason a couple of AAC teams would have to lose games in order for any other conference champion to have a legit shot at the Access bowl.

1. ECU
2. Marshall (but they are likely to be getting passed by Cincinnati soon in the polls)
3. Cincinnati
4. NIU
5. Boise State
6. UCF (Don't count them out yet they have only lost to 2 P5 programs who are in the rankings and they still have a ranked BYU and possibly ranked ECU to go. If they get on a roll they can finish 10-2)

It's not a matter of the AAC teams having to lose a couple of games for another G5 program to have a shot at the Access Bowl. It's a matter of scheduling and this year ECU could benefit from it or be hurt by it. No two loss G-5 champ is going to finish ahead of a undefeated G-5 conference champ and I would bet the farm on that.

And again, the AAC is weak this year so even a one-loss UC will have a difficult time getting the access bowl slot over a potentially undefeated Marshall or maybe even an undefeated Northern Illinois.

And remember, the polls aren't going to determine who gets that slot. The selection committee will determine that with their own rankings.

The AAC teams scheduled aggresivley, which is why their programs would have to lose at least twice for an undefeated Marshall to even have a shot at at the Access game. People were willing to bet the farm on the fact that a one loss AAC team would not pass an undefeated Marshall in the polls, but even back in the Summer it was obvious that a one loss team would easily pass them. I think that a 2 loss team could do it. If ECU beats UNC this weekend they will get ranked. If ECU keeps winning through the rest of the year up to the UCF game; then ECU will probably be in the low teens. If UCF wins the game against ECU, then ECU may drop into the 20's, but Marshall still may not be high enough in the standings to over take ECU. Marshall would be in the same predicament for the Cincinnati or Boise State or NIU.

CUSA is not the best G5. That honor right now belongs to the AAC. You keep focusing on low end wins against G5 teams, rather than the fact that other leagues have P5 wins. The AAC has closed the gap a lot even on the B10, because the AAC has more P5 wins than the B10.
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2014 06:11 PM by PirateMarv.)
09-15-2014 06:08 PM
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BamaScorpio69 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 06:08 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  The AAC teams scheduled aggresivley, which is why their programs would have to lose at least twice for an undefeated Marshall to even have a shot at at the Access game.

Clearly a matter of personal opinion.
09-15-2014 06:16 PM
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olliebaba Offline
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RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
One thing I know is that at the time Easy U. was invited to the Ack their posters kept repeating that until it's official they would still post on this site. They're still here which makes them all Liars. So add Liars to Delusionals, as well.
09-15-2014 06:28 PM
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ThreeifbyLightning Offline
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RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 06:08 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  
(09-15-2014 05:59 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  
(09-15-2014 05:36 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  
(09-15-2014 05:12 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  After 3 weeks of play, it's looking clear that C-USA's challenger for the top spot will be the MWC. Looking at the each conferences number of teams with winning records you have (lead dogs):

1.) C-USA - 6 (Marshall, La Tech)
2.) MWC - 6 (Boise St, Utah St)
3.) MAC - 3 (N. Ill, BGSU)
4.) AAC - 2 (Cincy, ECU)
5.) SBC - 2 (ULM)

Given that 60-70% of the OOC schedule is complete, there is a very high likelihood that the margins above will not only hold but strengthen. It's a foregone conclusion now that the G5 winner will come from C-USA or the MW.

The real race then turns to the Access Bowl invite. I'd rank the top 5 for that right now: 1.) Cincy; 2.) Marshall; 3.) ECU; 4.) N. Ill and 5.) Boise St. [La Tech having not beaten a P5 and still having Auburn on the schedule is a real dark horse].

A one loss BYU would be most deserving but without a conference the slot is unattainable.

Like people stated in the preseason a couple of AAC teams would have to lose games in order for any other conference champion to have a legit shot at the Access bowl.

1. ECU
2. Marshall (but they are likely to be getting passed by Cincinnati soon in the polls)
3. Cincinnati
4. NIU
5. Boise State
6. UCF (Don't count them out yet they have only lost to 2 P5 programs who are in the rankings and they still have a ranked BYU and possibly ranked ECU to go. If they get on a roll they can finish 10-2)

It's not a matter of the AAC teams having to lose a couple of games for another G5 program to have a shot at the Access Bowl. It's a matter of scheduling and this year ECU could benefit from it or be hurt by it. No two loss G-5 champ is going to finish ahead of a undefeated G-5 conference champ and I would bet the farm on that.

And again, the AAC is weak this year so even a one-loss UC will have a difficult time getting the access bowl slot over a potentially undefeated Marshall or maybe even an undefeated Northern Illinois.

And remember, the polls aren't going to determine who gets that slot. The selection committee will determine that with their own rankings.

The AAC teams scheduled aggresivley, which is why their programs would have to lose at least twice for an undefeated Marshall to even have a shot at at the Access game. People were willing to bet the farm on the fact that a one loss AAC team would not pass an undefeated Marshall in the polls, but even back in the Summer it was obvious that a one loss team would easily pass them. I think that a 2 loss team could do it. If ECU beats UNC this weekend they will get ranked. If ECU keeps winning through the rest of the year up to the UCF game; then ECU will probably be in the low teens. If UCF wins the game against ECU, then ECU may drop into the 20's, but Marshall still may not be high enough in the standings to over take ECU. Marshall would be in the same predicament for the Cincinnati or Boise State or NIU.

CUSA is not the best G5. That honor right now belongs to the AAC. You keep focusing on low end wins against G5 teams, rather than the fact that other leagues have P5 wins. The AAC has closed the gap a lot even on the B10, because the AAC has more P5 wins than the B10.

See, this is what is not clear and an issue I have been unable to get resolved for weeks.

The best G5 team does not necessarily come from the best G5 conference and the best G5 conference does not necessarily have the best G5 team. You're marrying these up as if they are one in the same but it is entirely possible they could be mutually exclusive in any given year.

No one has come right out and told us how any of this is going to be decided. The best G5 team will be decided by which measure? The best conference will be decided by which measure? These are not clear.

At for best team it's unclear how they will decide who is ranked "the highest" among all other schools. Are they using a poll (AP, coaches, etc?). Does Bill Hancock decide? Does the playoff committee decide?

As for the conference
It may not be the best cumulative record that decides which conference is best. It may or may not include the bowls (for best conference and the revenues that go along with it). Hell, it may or may not be the bowl win percentage only. As far as how they will decide who gets the most money under the umbrella of how the conferences are ranked it's a huge mystery right now how this is going to be determined.
09-15-2014 06:29 PM
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BamaScorpio69 Offline
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RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 06:08 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  People were willing to bet the farm on the fact that a one loss AAC team would not pass an undefeated Marshall in the polls, but even back in the Summer it was obvious that a one loss team would easily pass them.

It's three games into the season and it's obvious that ECU has a stronger OOC than Marshall. And yes if ECU wins out they would more than likely edge out an undefeated Marshall but your logic can only be applied to this season because of Marshall's weak OOC. If Marshall had played any ranked team at this point in the season and beat them then we are not even having this discussion right now.

And CUSA is clearly the best G-5 conference right now. I know you can wrap your head around that fact but that is your issue to deal with.
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2014 06:32 PM by BamaScorpio69.)
09-15-2014 06:30 PM
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Post: #17
RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
@PirateMarv

No. We're focused on the fact that your whole conference has only beat 3/19 FBS teams they have played. I'll give you credit that the AAC has played a really tough SOS. However, the Vanderbilt win is going to look like crap by the end of the year since they are probably going to only win 2-3 games all season and end up rated in the bottom 20. CUSA (or possibly MWC) right now is the best G5. ECU is looking like the best team overall with the Virginia Tech win. If MTSU beats Memphis on the road it will solidfy the fact that CUSA is currently better than the AAC.

Secondly, if the 3 games the CUSA and AAC played weren't total blowouts than you might have a point. Losing 3/3 games by an average of 4+ TDs per game is really, really bad. All of these teams were similarly rated to the teams they played and now those CUSA teams are only rated higher because they won. People will try to spin it that it was just 3 terrible teams but that is complete crap. Tulsa has already won a conference game and will likely end up 3-5 or 4-4 in AAC play. Houston is still projected to go 6-2 in AAC play. Even SMU is projected to win 3 conference games though even I doubt that will happen 03-razz.

However, I will agree that a one loss ECU gets the access bowl over an undefeated Marshall team. The Virginia Tech win and close S. Carolina loss is going to look better than being undefeated with no P5s on the schedule. The UNC game is very important.
(This post was last modified: 09-15-2014 06:36 PM by Shrack.)
09-15-2014 06:36 PM
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goherd24herdfans Offline
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Post: #18
RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 05:12 PM)FIUFan Wrote:  After 3 weeks of play, it's looking clear that C-USA's challenger for the top spot will be the MWC. Looking at the each conferences number of teams with winning records you have (lead dogs):

1.) C-USA - 6 (Marshall, La Tech)
2.) MWC - 6 (Boise St, Utah St)
3.) MAC - 3 (N. Ill, BGSU)
4.) AAC - 2 (Cincy, ECU)
5.) SBC - 2 (ULM)

Given that 60-70% of the OOC schedule is complete, there is a very high likelihood that the margins above will not only hold but strengthen. It's a foregone conclusion now that the G5 winner will come from C-USA or the MW.

The real race then turns to the Access Bowl invite. I'd rank the top 5 for that right now: 1.) Cincy; 2.) Marshall; 3.) ECU; 4.) N. Ill and 5.) Boise St. [La Tech having not beaten a P5 and still having Auburn on the schedule is a real dark horse].

A one loss BYU would be most deserving but without a conference the slot is unattainable.

I disagree with cincy being ahead.... after they play one game against toledo. ECU yes, but they would have to win out. A 2 loss ECU is out of the running. Marshall controls its destiny after ECU loses to UNC. Only ecu or cincy will end up being eligible for it per conference champion. Not worried about anything but akron right nwo.
09-15-2014 06:39 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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Post: #19
RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 06:28 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  One thing I know is that at the time Easy U. was invited to the Ack their posters kept repeating that until it's official they would still post on this site. They're still here which makes them all Liars. So add Liars to Delusionals, as well.

I just wanted to make sure that you had factually correct information based upon the lastest polls.
09-15-2014 06:45 PM
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PirateMarv Offline
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RE: G5: A Two Horse Race
(09-15-2014 06:36 PM)Shrack Wrote:  @PirateMarv

No. We're focused on the fact that your whole conference has only beat 3/19 FBS teams they have played. I'll give you credit that the AAC has played a really tough SOS. However, the Vanderbilt win is going to look like crap by the end of the year since they are probably going to only win 2-3 games all season and end up rated in the bottom 20. CUSA (or possibly MWC) right now is the best G5. ECU is looking like the best team overall with the Virginia Tech win. If MTSU beats Memphis on the road it will solidfy the fact that CUSA is currently better than the AAC.

Secondly, if the 3 games the CUSA and AAC played weren't total blowouts than you might have a point. Losing 3/3 games by an average of 4+ TDs per game is really, really bad. All of these teams were similarly rated to the teams they played and now those CUSA teams are only rated higher because they won. People will try to spin it that it was just 3 terrible teams but that is complete crap. Tulsa has already won a conference game and will likely end up 3-5 or 4-4 in AAC play. Houston is still projected to go 6-2 in AAC play. Even SMU is projected to win 3 conference games though even I doubt that will happen 03-razz.

However, I will agree that a one loss ECU gets the access bowl over an undefeated Marshall team. The Virginia Tech win and close S. Carolina loss is going to look better than being undefeated with no P5s on the schedule. The UNC game is very important.

SMU, Tulsa and Houston were the 3 teams that CUSA teams beat. SMU and Tulsa are going to finish in the bottom of the AAC and both will have new coaches next year. UTSA had a good win over Houston, but as you have seen Houston is not one of the top teams in the AAC.
09-15-2014 06:50 PM
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