And has moved up to -13. Looks like lots of money coming in on Arkansas big.

I like the role of a medium sized underdog in this game. As many chips on our shoulder as possible.

What are the games we've won as >12 Point underdogs?

DAMN. Crazy to see the line move so much so quickly. Early money heavily on Arkansas. In theory, NIU is the smart bet.

(09-14-2014 06:20 PM)clcfball11 Wrote:  DAMN. Crazy to see the line move so much so quickly. Early money heavily on Arkansas. In theory, NIU is the smart bet.

Just like the line against northwestern


Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

If it was 8pts, I'd bet on Arkansas. They showed they're great.

At 13, if I HAD to bet (I dont want to) -- I'd bet on Arkansas. NIU's D in the 2nd half against UNLV got lit up. Wouldn't be comfortable betting on NIU against a bigger & improved team from last year going against them.

My own personal spread? 17.

(09-14-2014 06:17 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  What are the games we've won as >12 Point underdogs?

Pretty sure we were a 13 point dog to Purdue in 2009.

(09-14-2014 06:31 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  If it was 8pts, I'd bet on Arkansas. They showed they're great.

At 13, if I HAD to bet (I dont want to) -- I'd bet on Arkansas. NIU's D in the 2nd half against UNLV got lit up. Wouldn't be comfortable betting on NIU against a bigger & improved team from last year going against them.

My own personal spread? 17.

I'd agree except Arkansas makes their living on the ground. We've shown up against the run so far.

Any word on Akeem or TLL?

Anyone know if AR stadium is turf or grass? Nw was grass and I felt it helped both defenses against the run as it slowed it down quite a lot. I dont know if it would be beneficial to us, just interested as it really made a difference in game speed

I think this will settle around -16

If you can get NIU at +26 take them otherwise do not bet this game!

Our corners are going to be all alone locked up on man for 1st and 2nd downs. ARK has to feel confident with run or pass looking at the film on Davis against us last week. Wouldn't be surprised if they throw more against us to change things up on us. Like many have said, our offense has to put up points nearly every possession, especially early. Good news is that might be possible, but I would have said the same thing about Texas Tech so I'm not so sure anymore. Got to think we're going to come out with all our boys full strength (TLL, Bass, everyone) and balls to the wall on this one!

Arkansas is never going to feel comfortable throwing it. They've thrown the ball like 57 times and are completing less than 55% for 140 yards a game. My high school throws for that much.

People need to stop referencing niu got lit up by Davis and applying it to this game. Davis is better than any WR on Arkansas roster.

NIU better put 10 guys in the box, because this team can run. They don't need to throw the ball because they run so well. There are multiple reasons they don't throw.

1. Cuz they're damn good at running it down your throat
2. Bielema doesn't want to throw
3. They don't have the weapons in the pass game

If Arkansas is throwing it's because they're uncomfortable and NIU is being highly successful on offense and stopping the run.

Let's use some logic, people.

Quote:I'd agree except Arkansas makes their living on the ground. We've shown up against the run so far.

If NIU can do well on O and eat up some clock + scoring, while Arkansas hits many 3rd downs to get their running game going, yeah, I would say it'd be a relatively "within 2 TD" range at 4th Q.

Texas Tech, an offensive team scored 28 (gave up 49)

TT only beat Central Arkansas by 7 pts, and UTEP by 4.

CArk: 3.3 yards/carry
UTEP: 5.3 yards/carry
Arkansas: 6.4 yards/carry (scored 7 rushing TDs; 40m time of possession; helped by 3 TT turnovers)

Against Auburn, Arkansas ran for 5.3 yds/rush.

Whimsical Prediction: Arkansas runs for 5.7 yds/rush, but more importantly, unlike against Auburn, doesn't get stuffed on 3rd and short in the 2nd half, and runs for 260 yards, and throws for 160 yards. If NIU moves the ball decently, Ark has 35m time of possession, NIU has 25m.

If NIU has NO turnovers and Arkansas has 1, and NIU can hold them on 3rd down 1/3rd of the time (while pushing Ark TO 3rd down much of the time) -- all while having NIU's balanced offense going -- NIU very well may win.

Currently 14.5 on 5dimes.

(09-14-2014 08:42 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:I'd agree except Arkansas makes their living on the ground. We've shown up against the run so far.

If NIU can do well on O and eat up some clock + scoring, while Arkansas hits many 3rd downs to get their running game going, yeah, I would say it'd be a relatively "within 2 TD" range at 4th Q.

Texas Tech, an offensive team scored 28 (gave up 49)

TT only beat Central Arkansas by 7 pts, and UTEP by 4.

CArk: 3.3 yards/carry
UTEP: 5.3 yards/carry
Arkansas: 6.4 yards/carry (scored 7 rushing TDs; 40m time of possession; helped by 3 TT turnovers)

Against Auburn, Arkansas ran for 5.3 yds/rush.

Whimsical Prediction: Arkansas runs for 5.7 yds/rush, but more importantly, unlike against Auburn, doesn't get stuffed on 3rd and short in the 2nd half, and runs for 260 yards, and throws for 160 yards. If NIU moves the ball decently, Ark has 35m time of possession, NIU has 25m.

If NIU has NO turnovers and Arkansas has 1, and NIU can hold them on 3rd down 1/3rd of the time (while pushing Ark TO 3rd down much of the time) -- all while having NIU's balanced offense going -- NIU very well may win.

I'm not predicting a win, because I think between all the travel, arkansas size, and depth is just too much for NIU.

But you're assessment is pretty close. NIU will have to win the TO battle by 2 and is going to have to be efficient on offense. This may sound crazy given techs style of offense, but I think niu is as good as tech on offense and slightly better on defense. NIU also has more window dressing than tech, they just line up with 5 wide and sling it around. NIU throws the kitchen sink with motion and formations.

Forcing third and longs and pressing the pace on offense are my two keys to the game. They need to get the young secondary for arkansas reeling. Get it to brown early and often.

(09-14-2014 08:47 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  

(09-14-2014 08:42 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:I'd agree except Arkansas makes their living on the ground. We've shown up against the run so far.

If NIU can do well on O and eat up some clock + scoring, while Arkansas hits many 3rd downs to get their running game going, yeah, I would say it'd be a relatively "within 2 TD" range at 4th Q.

Texas Tech, an offensive team scored 28 (gave up 49)

TT only beat Central Arkansas by 7 pts, and UTEP by 4.

CArk: 3.3 yards/carry
UTEP: 5.3 yards/carry
Arkansas: 6.4 yards/carry (scored 7 rushing TDs; 40m time of possession; helped by 3 TT turnovers)

Against Auburn, Arkansas ran for 5.3 yds/rush.

Whimsical Prediction: Arkansas runs for 5.7 yds/rush, but more importantly, unlike against Auburn, doesn't get stuffed on 3rd and short in the 2nd half, and runs for 260 yards, and throws for 160 yards. If NIU moves the ball decently, Ark has 35m time of possession, NIU has 25m.

If NIU has NO turnovers and Arkansas has 1, and NIU can hold them on 3rd down 1/3rd of the time (while pushing Ark TO 3rd down much of the time) -- all while having NIU's balanced offense going -- NIU very well may win.

I'm not predicting a win, because I think between all the travel, arkansas size, and depth is just too much for NIU.

But you're assessment is pretty close. NIU will have to win the TO battle by 2 and is going to have to be efficient on offense. This may sound crazy given techs style of offense, but I think niu is as good as tech on offense and slightly better on defense. NIU also has more window dressing than tech, they just line up with 5 wide and sling it around. NIU throws the kitchen sink with motion and formations.

Forcing third and longs and pressing the pace on offense are my two keys to the game. They need to get the young secondary for arkansas reeling. Get it to brown early and often.

That's the only thing giving me a small amount of hope, that Texas Tech defense is so bad, so so so so bad

(09-14-2014 08:40 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  Arkansas is never going to feel comfortable throwing it. They've thrown the ball like 57 times and are completing less than 55% for 140 yards a game. My high school throws for that much.

People need to stop referencing niu got lit up by Davis and applying it to this game. Davis is better than any WR on Arkansas roster.

NIU better put 10 guys in the box, because this team can run. They don't need to throw the ball because they run so well. There are multiple reasons they don't throw.

1. Cuz they're damn good at running it down your throat
2. Bielema doesn't want to throw
3. They don't have the weapons in the pass game

If Arkansas is throwing it's because they're uncomfortable and NIU is being highly successful on offense and stopping the run.

Let's use some logic, people.

Logic would say they don't throw because they don't have to. Hence, they only throw on obvious throwing downs and therefore have a lower completion percentage. Don't need bubble screens and higher % passes with that kind of running game.

(09-14-2014 08:51 PM)Big Redd Wrote:  

(09-14-2014 08:40 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  Arkansas is never going to feel comfortable throwing it. They've thrown the ball like 57 times and are completing less than 55% for 140 yards a game. My high school throws for that much.

People need to stop referencing niu got lit up by Davis and applying it to this game. Davis is better than any WR on Arkansas roster.

NIU better put 10 guys in the box, because this team can run. They don't need to throw the ball because they run so well. There are multiple reasons they don't throw.

1. Cuz they're damn good at running it down your throat
2. Bielema doesn't want to throw
3. They don't have the weapons in the pass game

If Arkansas is throwing it's because they're uncomfortable and NIU is being highly successful on offense and stopping the run.

Let's use some logic, people.

Logic would say they don't throw because they don't have to. Hence, they only throw on obvious throwing downs and therefore have a lower completion percentage. Don't need bubble screens and higher % passes with that kind of running game.

Yet, you say they should feel confident on passing.

Their QB has a a career 20-14 int ratio, that's horrible. Their top two receivers, which apparently you think are like UNLVs Davis have a combined 600 yards and 6 TDs.

They don't have the weapons to throw!!!

I also said they don't throw because of two other things. Excellent ground game and coach that wants to run.They're a two WR and at least one tight end type of offense. They have a bad percentage because one the QB isn't good and they only throw on 3rd down.

I thought we'd be +15. Was shocked to see it opened +8. I think we'll score points, but if we can't stop the run, they might score quite a bit more. If you stopped the season today, our NW and UNLV wins wouldn't look very good. Third road game in a row. One positive is they play at TAMU next week, and we're off. I had this one penciled in as a loss before the season started, and I still do. Hope I'm wrong.