(09-11-2014 06:45 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 03:47 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I would schedule 2 P5's, 1 FCS, and one G5. Our bad teams will usually lose to a good G5 team. This year is no different to any other year. Houston is an odd situation because the talent on hand would appear to be much better than the product on the field. Coaching matters. Right now---they are among the worst teams in the AAC. Memphis and Temple, on the other hand, are teams that look to be much better than expected. Relax--it will all even out.

Expected by whom? Most Memphis fans who actually follow football knew this team would probably be a lot better than most outsiders would think. Fuente's recruits are now upper classmen, and we returned the great majority of our starters, and vastly improved our depth. Now up to 85 schollies, with quality backups at most positions, for first time in a number of years.

Most preseason polls had them in the bottom half of the league. Yes, Memphis fans said they would be much better. That said, Memphis fans said the same thing last year...and the year before that....and the year before that....lol, happy to see it finally happen.

(09-11-2014 06:51 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 06:45 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 03:47 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I would schedule 2 P5's, 1 FCS, and one G5. Our bad teams will usually lose to a good G5 team. This year is no different to any other year. Houston is an odd situation because the talent on hand would appear to be much better than the product on the field. Coaching matters. Right now---they are among the worst teams in the AAC. Memphis and Temple, on the other hand, are teams that look to be much better than expected. Relax--it will all even out.

Expected by whom? Most Memphis fans who actually follow football knew this team would probably be a lot better than most outsiders would think. Fuente's recruits are now upper classmen, and we returned the great majority of our starters, and vastly improved our depth. Now up to 85 schollies, with quality backups at most positions, for first time in a number of years.

Most preseason polls had them in the bottom half of the league. Yes, Memphis fans said they would be much better. That said, Memphis fans said the same thing last year...and the year before that....and the year before that....

Maybe. We were. We went from getting whipped by FCS schools to giving #11 UCLA a fight. Got better each of the last 3 seasons, from the bottom of the barrel.

(09-11-2014 06:55 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 06:51 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 06:45 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 03:47 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I would schedule 2 P5's, 1 FCS, and one G5. Our bad teams will usually lose to a good G5 team. This year is no different to any other year. Houston is an odd situation because the talent on hand would appear to be much better than the product on the field. Coaching matters. Right now---they are among the worst teams in the AAC. Memphis and Temple, on the other hand, are teams that look to be much better than expected. Relax--it will all even out.

Expected by whom? Most Memphis fans who actually follow football knew this team would probably be a lot better than most outsiders would think. Fuente's recruits are now upper classmen, and we returned the great majority of our starters, and vastly improved our depth. Now up to 85 schollies, with quality backups at most positions, for first time in a number of years.

Most preseason polls had them in the bottom half of the league. Yes, Memphis fans said they would be much better. That said, Memphis fans said the same thing last year...and the year before that....and the year before that....

Maybe. We were.We went from getting whipped by FCS schools to giving #11 UCLA a fight. Got better each of the last 3 seasons, from the bottom of the barrel.

Its fun to see Memphis back. Id like to see the fans back in the stadium like you guys used to do. I think you guys can hit 40+ if the team gets on a roll.

(09-11-2014 03:20 PM)blunderbuss Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 03:09 PM)tnzazz Wrote:  You have to remember SOS. CUSA's conference schedule is crap.

But... for the Access Bowl? When most of the other G5's are playing other G5's OOC, what difference does SOS make? If you look around you'll notice that there aren't that many that play more than one P5 opponent. That's kind of my point that the head to head match ups over other G5's might be more important.

1. The "Access Bowl" and SOS considerations are a new idea as of this year. Most of these schedules (us / others in the noncontract conferences) were made 2-5 years ago. They weren't thinking SOS at that time like they are or should be thinking now.

2. Play nothing but noncontract teams and you'll stay noncontract IMHO. The Access Bowl is great, but each of the teams in the conference is or should be looking for a bigger payday (i.e. invitation to contract conference).

I think we're better off playing the Cartel and losing then going with a non-Cartel schedule just because we think it gives a better shot at the Access Bowl.

(09-11-2014 03:14 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 03:06 PM)blunderbuss Wrote:  Seems like CUSA is in the lead at the moment for the G5 mostly due to beating other G5 programs. I'm thinking maybe this is the best OOC scheduling strategy for G5 schools. As much as I hate to say it we really don't do ourselves any favors playing top P5 schools since 90% of the time it will end up being a loss.

The other G5's seem to NOT play as many P5's as we play, so are we hurting our chances with our OOC scheduling strategy? I really believe this is the case with ECU.

CUSA isn't in the lead for anything. They have a grand total of ONE team that is undefeated (Marshall) who has played absolutely no one and plays no one all year. What are their big OOC wins again? Name them. NT over SMU? UTSA over Houston? What else? Any "P5" opponents defeated??? EVERY other CUSA team has at last 1 loss.

Oh c'mon now BullsFan. That Marshall win over URI was really, really tough! TBH, I really have no idea how they pulled off that tough, tough 1-AA win!!!


Note: I live here in CT, and for some reason (probably b/c of URI) I got to see the thrilling Marshall/URI matchup. A real thrill-a-minute barnburner, if you ask me.

We just need to accept that CUSA is our equal now. :(

(09-12-2014 08:57 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  We just need to accept that CUSA is our equal now. :(

what has c-usa done ? beat bowling green? 1-2 houston is their best win...they played an extremely weak OOC schedule

Cusa isn't in the lead for diddly squat. Marshall has to run the table to even be considered. The rest of them are already out. I think Cincy, UCF and Boise are at the top of the possible list right now. UCF may well be off, or at the bottom of the list Saturday. If Marshall trips up once, the team will either come from AAC or MWC.

Sadly for the sunbelt ULL already lost to La-Tech.

The reasons you schedule P5 teams is:

1. that's who you'll play in the Access Bowl
2. it helps recruiting
3. better media coverage
4. it brings in fans
5. it pays better
6. it makes your program better
7. it may get you an invite to a P5 conference

You schedule teams beneath you, that's where you'll take your program.

Guys, it remains to be seen whether they'll REALLY take SOS into consideration or not for the Access Bowl. Even if they do, how much consideration will be taken? Would an undefeated Marshall get in? Nobody knows the answer to any of those questions. The most likely final record for best AAC team is probably 10-2 or 11-1 at best each year. Will that be enough? Who knows?

Bottom line is the media, conference leaders, etc have fed us all a load of crap on plenty of issues in the past and now we're supposed to take their word on the SOS consideration for Access Bowl? I'll believe it when I see it.

Maybe June Jones was right... all of us lowly G5 teams should just give up and play only each other in the Spring like we're the XFL or something.
That would work out great.

It is very sad to see we are being compared to C-USA teams!!! I thought we left that in the past a decade ago!!!!!!!!!

(09-12-2014 09:03 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-12-2014 08:57 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  We just need to accept that CUSA is our equal now. :(

what has c-usa done ? beat bowling green? 1-2 houston is their best win...they played an extremely weak OOC schedule

I would like to agree, but who has the AAC beaten that's better than Bowling Green? I highly doubt anyone.

(09-12-2014 09:41 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(09-12-2014 09:03 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(09-12-2014 08:57 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  We just need to accept that CUSA is our equal now. :(

what has c-usa done ? beat bowling green? 1-2 houston is their best win...they played an extremely weak OOC schedule

I would like to agree, but who has the AAC beaten that's better than Bowling Green? I highly doubt anyone.

Yup, kinda plays right into my point. A strong SOS is pointless if you're not winning the games. The Access Bowl selection committee isn't an RPI formula like in hoops.

The foundation of the argument for including Non-BCS/G5 teams has NEVER been about "well they are almost as good as the P5/BCS athletically"

it's about the concept that no team should be mathematically excluded from the playoffs before the season even starts. In theory if you win every game on your schedule, you should have a chance to play for a national championship. Utah, BSU, & TCU going undefeated and not playing for a National title is what caused the controversy, not "are they as good as Alabama, Oklahoma, & Wisconsin"

The concept of the access bowl is purely about preventing an anti-trust lawsuit.

The committee is gonna look at record first, SOS second.

(09-12-2014 09:19 AM)mac6115cd Wrote:  The reasons you schedule P5 teams is:

1. that's who you'll play in the Access Bowl
2. it helps recruiting
3. better media coverage
4. it brings in fans
5. it pays better
6. it makes your program better
7. it may get you an invite to a P5 conference

You schedule teams beneath you, that's where you'll take your program.

My 50+ years of following Tiger athletics, going to games, etc would be seriously reevaluated if we didn't play any programs at the top level. I'm not saying I would make a definite change in my attendance/support, but that's a major change in our program's long term philosophy and I'd have to think about where that would leave me. If we made a conscious decision not to play top level programs, that's huge change in philosophy.

(09-12-2014 09:45 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  Yup, kinda plays right into my point. A strong SOS is pointless if you're not winning the games. The Access Bowl selection committee isn't an RPI formula like in hoops.

The selection committee is certainly supposed to take SOS into account when coming up with their rankings:

Data
Selection Committee members will have a wealth of information including review of video, statistics and their own expertise to guide them in their deliberations. They will emphasize obvious factors like win-loss records, strength of schedule, conference championships won, head-to-head results and results against common opponents. The playoff group has retained SportSource Analytics to provide the data platform for the committee’s use. While the details of the platform have not been finalized, it is anticipated that it will include countless pieces of statistical information for every Football Bowl Subdivision team. It will also include general information such as each team’s opponents’ record and opponents’ opponents’ records. The platform will allow the committee members to compare and contrast every team on every level possible.



Like I said previously, we'll have to see how the committee rankings look over the next few years to see what they really value when ranking the G5 teams. If by 3 years from now it is clear they are just putting the G5 champion with the best record in the Access Bowl regardless of how crappy that team's schedule is, we can revisit the discussion. Unless there is a clear pattern of this, though, let's just all keep playing the best out of conference schedule we possibly can.

(09-12-2014 09:52 AM)Inigo Wrote:  

(09-12-2014 09:45 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  Yup, kinda plays right into my point. A strong SOS is pointless if you're not winning the games. The Access Bowl selection committee isn't an RPI formula like in hoops.

The selection committee is certainly supposed to take SOS into account when coming up with their rankings:

Data
Selection Committee members will have a wealth of information including review of video, statistics and their own expertise to guide them in their deliberations. They will emphasize obvious factors like win-loss records, strength of schedule, conference championships won, head-to-head results and results against common opponents. The playoff group has retained SportSource Analytics to provide the data platform for the committee’s use. While the details of the platform have not been finalized, it is anticipated that it will include countless pieces of statistical information for every Football Bowl Subdivision team. It will also include general information such as each team’s opponents’ record and opponents’ opponents’ records. The platform will allow the committee members to compare and contrast every team on every level possible.


Like I said previously, we'll have to see how the committee rankings look over the next few years to see what they really value when ranking the G5 teams. If by 3 years from now it is clear they are just putting the G5 champion with the best record in the Access Bowl regardless of how crappy that team's schedule is, we can revisit the discussion. Unless there is a clear pattern of this, though, let's just all keep playing the best out of conference schedule we possibly can.

Understand the point a about having to wait and see. They don't tell you what's more valuable between a loss to a P5 or a win vs a G5. In the basketball world a loss to a top 10 team is more valuable than a win vs some garbage opponent.

This thread was meant as food for thought.

(09-12-2014 10:03 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  Understand the point a about having to wait and see. They don't tell you what's more valuable between a loss to a P5 or a win vs a G5. In the basketball world a loss to a top 10 team is more valuable than a win vs some garbage opponent.

This thread was meant as food for thought.

My guess is that the CFP selection committee will evaluate similarly to the NCAA committee - a competitive loss to a ranked team will be more valuable than cupcake wins.