There is certainly an ongoing debate about whether performance matters in confernce realignment, or whether it is about markets and fanbases. BYU may present an interesting test this year. Suppose we continue to play well, and go undefeated. Suppose Taysom Hill continues his good play, doesn't get injured, and wins the Heisman. Suppose we win our bowl game, or show well in a playoff game, and the Big 12 doesn't get a playoff spot.

Does that change the Big 12's "stay at 10" mantra? Does it impact the Pac 12, which now only needs a majority to add a team?

BYU has ZERO chance of making the playoff. ZERO. The schedule this year is putrid- right now after 2 weeks- only Cal and Nevada are undefeated. Boise right now is the only opponent of theirs that is getting any votes.

BYU at 12-0 would be an interesting test case in to see how far up the committee puts them.

Nothing will happen if BYU goes undefeated. The Big 12 will expand east if any expansion is done by them. BYU will either join the MW if they want a chance for a Major Bowl or forever wander the Independent wilderness of waiting to be ranked #4 to make the playoff. Its whatever 3rd tier bowl the BYU signs up for until they join a conference.

(09-11-2014 10:32 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Nothing will happen if BYU goes undefeated. The Big 12 will expand east if any expansion is done by them. BYU will either join the MW if they want a chance for a Major Bowl or forever wander the Independent wilderness of waiting to be ranked #4 to make the playoff. Its whatever 3rd tier bowl the BYU signs up for until they join a conference.

It's not a given at all that BYU would join the MWC in that case if they don't get Big 12. They could easily join the AAC- maybe for all sports which would be huge for them. AAC a much better basketball league than the MWC is.

(09-11-2014 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  BYU has ZERO chance of making the playoff. ZERO. The schedule this year is putrid- right now after 2 weeks- only Cal and Nevada are undefeated. Boise right now is the only opponent of theirs that is getting any votes.

BYU at 12-0 would be an interesting test case in to see how far up the committee puts them.

so you know how its going to play out huh?

please tell us more Nostradamus

(09-11-2014 10:19 AM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  There is certainly an ongoing debate about whether performance matters in confernce realignment, or whether it is about markets and fanbases. BYU may present an interesting test this year. Suppose we continue to play well, and go undefeated. Suppose Taysom Hill continues his good play, doesn't get injured, and wins the Heisman. Suppose we win our bowl game, or show well in a playoff game, and the Big 12 doesn't get a playoff spot.

Does that change the Big 12's "stay at 10" mantra? Does it impact the Pac 12, which now only needs a majority to add a team?

A 12-0 record in and of itself doesn't matter that much. If that 12-0 record translates into huge TV ratings for BYU games, then the Big 12 may reconsider. Frankly, I think the Big 12 should have added BYU a couple of years ago, but that's just my opinion.

(I'm a "never say never" type of person, but the Pac-12 adding BYU is about as close to a "never" situation as you'll ever get. Schools like Stanford, Cal, Washington and Oregon might be willing to play BYU as a non-conference opponent, but their academic leaders would never let them be formally associated with BYU in the same conference.)

(09-11-2014 10:32 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Nothing will happen if BYU goes undefeated. The Big 12 will expand east if any expansion is done by them. BYU will either join the MW if they want a chance for a Major Bowl or forever wander the Independent wilderness of waiting to be ranked #4 to make the playoff. Its whatever 3rd tier bowl the BYU signs up for until they join a conference.

While Big 12 expansion is a big "if" they tried to expand west previously with BYU and Air Force. Not sure that eastward expansion is a foregone conclusion with the Big 12, but the Big 12's expansion moves have been head scratchers.

Also, if BYU joins a conference it will probably be the AAC for football only. I don't see moving back to the MWC/WAC as being in the cards. If that happens, probably a couple of disgruntled MWC teams will move with them such as San Diego St or Air Force.

If BYU goes undefeated they will almost certainly be in one of the access bowls due to the number of available slots this year. You might want to look at the numbers before posting.

(Edit - Changed ACC to AAC as the conference BYU is most likely to join)

BYU's schedule isn't Marshall-weak. It compares well to that of any non-P5 team. At 12-0, BYU wouldn't be chosen for the playoff four ahead of any 0 or 1 loss P5 team. If there were fewer than four 0 or 1 loss P5 teams -- it's a long shot, but if the competition for that fourth spot was, say, an 11-2 Wisconsin team with few quality wins on their resume due to their soft schedule -- then, maybe. More likely is an access bowl invitation if BYU is 12-0.

Agreed that there's no P5 invitation for BYU in the near future regardless of on-field performance, and there's even less chance that BYU would ever join the MWC or AAC. The benefits for them would be minor, and more importantly, with Utah already in the Pac-12, BYU won't join a G5 conference. They'll stick with football independence.

(09-11-2014 10:43 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  BYU has ZERO chance of making the playoff. ZERO. The schedule this year is putrid- right now after 2 weeks- only Cal and Nevada are undefeated. Boise right now is the only opponent of theirs that is getting any votes.

BYU at 12-0 would be an interesting test case in to see how far up the committee puts them.

so you know how its going to play out huh?

please tell us more Nostradamus

I don't know how it's going to play out- but I pretty much know a team with that putrid of a SOS has no shot.
UConn
Texas
Houston
Virginia
Utah St
UCF
Nevada
Boise St
Mid Tennessee
UNLV
Savannah St
Cal

That schedule has no shot even with 1 fewer loss for sure- and quite possibly with 2 fewer losses. It's no lock they would even be in the top 10 quite frankly. remember, it's not like before where computers would boost a team like that considerably.

(09-11-2014 10:32 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Nothing will happen if BYU goes undefeated. The Big 12 will expand east if any expansion is done by them. BYU will either join the MW if they want a chance for a Major Bowl or forever wander the Independent wilderness of waiting to be ranked #4 to make the playoff. Its whatever 3rd tier bowl the BYU signs up for until they join a conference.

BYU doesn't fit in well with any conference.....

the PAC 12 already has Utah.....Texas would have to want BYU in the conference for the Big XII

But, its bull**** that they aren't made a place at the table

(09-11-2014 10:43 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  BYU has ZERO chance of making the playoff. ZERO. The schedule this year is putrid- right now after 2 weeks- only Cal and Nevada are undefeated. Boise right now is the only opponent of theirs that is getting any votes.

BYU at 12-0 would be an interesting test case in to see how far up the committee puts them.

so you know how its going to play out huh?

please tell us more Nostradamus

This is a realignment board last I checked. People are giving BYU a ~20% chance of going undefeated this year. From a realignment perspective, the question is whether everything breaking good for BYU makes a difference in realignment.

It sums up to this question: can teams really "earn their way in" by play on the field? Will conference realignment be driven by a meritocracy? It would be nice to discuss the topic, without resorting to name calling.

(09-11-2014 10:46 AM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 10:32 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Nothing will happen if BYU goes undefeated. The Big 12 will expand east if any expansion is done by them. BYU will either join the MW if they want a chance for a Major Bowl or forever wander the Independent wilderness of waiting to be ranked #4 to make the playoff. Its whatever 3rd tier bowl the BYU signs up for until they join a conference.

While Big 12 expansion is a big "if" they tried to expand west previously with BYU and Air Force. Not sure that eastward expansion is a foregone conclusion with the Big 12, but the Big 12's expansion moves have been head scratchers.

Also, if BYU joins a conference it will probably be the AAC for football only. I don't see moving back to the MWC/WAC as being in the cards. If that happens, probably a couple of disgruntled MWC teams will move with them such as San Diego St or Air Force.

If BYU goes undefeated they will almost certainly be in one of the access bowls due to the number of available slots this year. You might want to look at the numbers before posting.

(Edit - Changed ACC to AAC as the conference BYU is most likely to join)

Sorry, but even with 4 at-large spots open being 12-0 will not get BYU to an Access Bowl. The SOS of your schedule compared to other schedules will be get you up there.
I look at the number before posting and if you read the thread Playoff/Access Bowl teams you'll see that even #10 LSU, #11 Notre and #12 UCLA are out of the Major Bowl picture.

You're better off rejoining the MW than the AAC (to bring basketball out of the WCC), but if BYU decides the AAC is for them, then great, but the MW team that you might bring with you is SDSU...everyone else is solid with the MW.

it's no lock that BYU would be out of the access bowls- but it's far from a guarantee. if you have 9-10 teams with between 0-2 losses outside BYU, it's going to be really tough. I would say especially if the Big Ten is out of the playoff and ND gets in the playoff(taking a 2nd at large off the table).

(09-11-2014 11:00 AM)HawkeyeCoug Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 10:43 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  BYU has ZERO chance of making the playoff. ZERO. The schedule this year is putrid- right now after 2 weeks- only Cal and Nevada are undefeated. Boise right now is the only opponent of theirs that is getting any votes.

BYU at 12-0 would be an interesting test case in to see how far up the committee puts them.

so you know how its going to play out huh?

please tell us more Nostradamus

This is a realignment board last I checked. People are giving BYU a ~20% chance of going undefeated this year. From a realignment perspective, the question is whether everything breaking good for BYU makes a difference in realignment.

It sums up to this question: can teams really "earn their way in" by play on the field? Will conference realignment be driven by a meritocracy? It would be nice to discuss the topic, without resorting to name calling.

Realignment has never been driven by on-the-field meritocracy. Now, that doesn't mean that on-the-field results are irrelevant, as schools like Utah, TCU and Louisville moved up with strong athletic departments as their respective calling cards. However, there are a ton of off-the-field considerations for realignment: TV markets, academics, fan base size, etc.

BYU going undefeated in and of itself won't be what attracts a P5 conference (specifically the Big 12). The realignment value of going undefeated would be more about the residual spotlight on BYU's large national fan base, TV desirability and P5-level athletic department revenue. Essentially, the Big 12 would need to look at the situation and say, "We're leaving money on the table if we don't add BYU." Personally, I think that BYU is already at that level. In fact, the Big 12 may already believe that BYU is at that level, too. The question is whether the Big 12 also thinks a 12th school has reached that level, which might be much tougher. (Personally, I think that Cincinnati has shown more than enough on that front, but I'm not running the Big 12.)

There were some chatter that during the Texas weekend, quiet lobbying was in full effect.

What would be great? Both Notre Dame and BYU going undefeated and SEC team losing last game in SEC Championship. There is no question that Notre Dame gets in with their schedule.

Playoff Spot:

1- SEC
2- SEC
3- Notre Dame
4- BYU


Big Ten, ACC, Pac 12, Big XII all sit home and whine.... Substitute Florida State for BYU and 3 conferences would still sit home. This is the scenario needed right out the gates for anybody wanting an 8-team playoff.

The important number is $6 million, not 12. $6 million is roughly what BYU is earning from TV. The Big 12 averages $20 million. So, no chance.

Utah didn't get into the Pac 12 with a 12-0 undefeated season. The important #12 for them was that the Pac 12 needed a 12 to go with Colorado to get a conference championship game. And Utah had a decade of very strong seasons and 2 or 3 top 10 finishes to put them at the top of the list. Similarly, TCU fit a niche, adding a Texas school for recruiting after having a decade with the 3rd or 4th best record in the country and a couple of top 10 finishes. Their important number was 10-the Big 12 needed 10 for a TV contract.

Despite TCU's record, that #10 spot was probably BYU's if they had pursued it hard at the time. When 10 opened up again, WVU was available.

(09-11-2014 11:15 AM)Miami (Oh) Yeah ! Wrote:  What would be great? Both Notre Dame and BYU going undefeated and SEC team losing last game in SEC Championship. There is no question that Notre Dame gets in with their schedule.

Playoff Spot:

1- SEC
2- SEC
3- Notre Dame
4- BYU


Big Ten, ACC, Pac 12, Big XII all sit home and whine.... Substitute Florida State for BYU and 3 conferences would still sit home. This is the scenario needed right out the gates for anybody wanting an 8-team playoff.

To get an 8 team playoff, just have the SEC and Big 10 get left out in a year. With ESPN, Big 10 and SEC pushing for it, it happens.

(09-11-2014 11:28 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 11:15 AM)Miami (Oh) Yeah ! Wrote:  What would be great? Both Notre Dame and BYU going undefeated and SEC team losing last game in SEC Championship. There is no question that Notre Dame gets in with their schedule.

Playoff Spot:

1- SEC
2- SEC
3- Notre Dame
4- BYU


Big Ten, ACC, Pac 12, Big XII all sit home and whine.... Substitute Florida State for BYU and 3 conferences would still sit home. This is the scenario needed right out the gates for anybody wanting an 8-team playoff.

To get an 8 team playoff, just have the SEC and Big 10 get left out in a year. With ESPN, Big 10 and SEC pushing for it, it happens.

That and they would put more emphasis on Conference Champ game if that happened

(09-11-2014 10:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 10:43 AM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(09-11-2014 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  BYU has ZERO chance of making the playoff. ZERO. The schedule this year is putrid- right now after 2 weeks- only Cal and Nevada are undefeated. Boise right now is the only opponent of theirs that is getting any votes.

BYU at 12-0 would be an interesting test case in to see how far up the committee puts them.

so you know how its going to play out huh?

please tell us more Nostradamus

I don't know how it's going to play out- but I pretty much know a team with that putrid of a SOS has no shot.
UConn
Texas
Houston
Virginia
Utah St
UCF
Nevada
Boise St
Mid Tennessee
UNLV
Savannah St
Cal

That schedule has no shot even with 1 fewer loss for sure- and quite possibly with 2 fewer losses. It's no lock they would even be in the top 10 quite frankly. remember, it's not like before where computers would boost a team like that considerably.

That schedule is about the same as Wisconsin's, minus LSU.