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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #1
SEC raided
An interesting article on conferenceexpansion.com peaked my interest in a slightly different set of theories. What if the SEC gets raided instead of expands. I don't believe the article would happen (conference trades sound too weird to me) but some ideas make some sense.

(This is completely for the fun of it, I have no belief that any of this will happen whatsoever, please no blasting!)

The idea is that since the SEC doesn't have a GOR it is actually possible for the SEC to be raided. Mizzou could easily go to the BIG along with Vandy or Vandy could go to the ACC.

I have heard speculation on those moves, but let's take it farther: Kentucky moves to the ACC as well (historically I believe this has been discussed).

With three other schools moving, perhaps LSU and Arkansas move to the Big 12. Arkansas has the relationships, and LSU doesn't like its schedule. Perhaps South Carolina moves back to the ACC as well.

So we have BIG: to 16 with Vandy and Mizzou
ACC: to 16 with Kentucky and South Carolina
Big 12: to 12 with Arkansas and LSU

That leaves an 8 team SEC: TN, Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Miss St.

This is still a solid league, but perhaps these schools too start looking elsewhere. Does Texas A&M give up its seperation and move back to the Big 12, or is the Big 10 interested enough in Texas as a state to grab A&M without Texas? Would the Big 10 be interested in AAU Florida? Even Georgia has high academic rankings and would give the Atlanta market if the ACC is solidified and Georgia Tech isn't coming. Or would the ACC keep on raiding for Florida and Georgia?

Where would TN, Alabama, Auburn and the Mississippi schools wind up? Would the Big 12 take on 4 more to reach 16? Is Miss St. left out in that scenario?

Or does the SEC back-fill with American and Conference USA teams - Cincy and UCF, Rice or Tulane. Finally into Carolina but with East Carolina - Houston and SMU, Memphis? 7 of those 8 would make a 12 team league. Maybe Navy could make it a 14 team league. But 12 would mean deciding between Houston and Rice. Houston has more recognition but Rice is better academically.

Just some interesting ideas. Most the threads I have seen assume the dominance of the SEC will continue. Let's turn that on its head.
(This post was last modified: 09-10-2014 11:50 AM by Soobahk40050.)
09-10-2014 11:48 AM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: SEC raided
(09-10-2014 11:48 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  An interesting article on conferenceexpansion.com peaked my interest in a slightly different set of theories. What if the SEC gets raided instead of expands. I don't believe the article would happen (conference trades sound too weird to me) but some ideas make some sense.

(This is completely for the fun of it, I have no belief that any of this will happen whatsoever, please no blasting!)

The idea is that since the SEC doesn't have a GOR it is actually possible for the SEC to be raided. Mizzou could easily go to the BIG along with Vandy or Vandy could go to the ACC.

I have heard speculation on those moves, but let's take it farther: Kentucky moves to the ACC as well (historically I believe this has been discussed).

With three other schools moving, perhaps LSU and Arkansas move to the Big 12. Arkansas has the relationships, and LSU doesn't like its schedule. Perhaps South Carolina moves back to the ACC as well.

So we have BIG: to 16 with Vandy and Mizzou
ACC: to 16 with Kentucky and South Carolina
Big 12: to 12 with Arkansas and LSU

That leaves an 8 team SEC: TN, Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Miss St.

This is still a solid league, but perhaps these schools too start looking elsewhere. Does Texas A&M give up its seperation and move back to the Big 12, or is the Big 10 interested enough in Texas as a state to grab A&M without Texas? Would the Big 10 be interested in AAU Florida? Even Georgia has high academic rankings and would give the Atlanta market if the ACC is solidified and Georgia Tech isn't coming. Or would the ACC keep on raiding for Florida and Georgia?

Where would TN, Alabama, Auburn and the Mississippi schools wind up? Would the Big 12 take on 4 more to reach 16? Is Miss St. left out in that scenario?

Or does the SEC back-fill with American and Conference USA teams - Cincy and UCF, Rice or Tulane. Finally into Carolina but with East Carolina - Houston and SMU, Memphis? 7 of those 8 would make a 12 team league. Maybe Navy could make it a 14 team league. But 12 would mean deciding between Houston and Rice. Houston has more recognition but Rice is better academically.

Just some interesting ideas. Most the threads I have seen assume the dominance of the SEC will continue. Let's turn that on its head.

The SECN is a de facto GOR now for the SEC, so while a school can leave, the TV right remain would remain in Birmingham. But for $#!+ and giggles I'll play this game. Lets say that the value of academic associations skyrockets, which would be the only reason at this point why Vandy and Mizzou would decide to leave.

The question is why would the other 4 schools you've listed decide to part ways with the SEC. Arky and LSU and well familiar with the Longhorns' machinations, which pale in comparison to anything 'Bama could ever come up with. Chances are they are placed into an B12 East division with ISU, KU, OKST, WVU. How would that be better than remaining in the SEC?

The ACC would have zero interest in SCAR or UK. Their preferences from the SEC would be the likes of UF, UGA, UT and Auburn. Quite frankly, as long as the big 6 of UGA, UF, UT, Bama, Auburn and LSU (or in your scenario A&M) remain committed to the SEC, the conference can weather any departures. You don't think schools like Clemson, WVU would gladly pay their conference exit fee to be in the SEC? Hell, the SEC could add the like of Cincy, ECU, UCF and SMU and turn every one of those schools into competitive programs in 20 years.
09-10-2014 12:47 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #3
RE: SEC raided
I'm not going to torture you but the idea is simply not possible. The SECN is as Vandiver said a de facto GOR. And in realignment nobody moves except for much more money and the SECN stands to place the SEC above everyone else except the Big 10 by a fairly wide margin. Perhaps if the PACN sells part ownership to ESPN then Texas plus 3 to the PAC puts them into competition. But the ACC has little chance at a network until 2021 (and that is an eternity to be behind the SEC and Big 10 in the range of 10,000,000 a year). The Big 12 has no footprint, no revenue sharing for the T3 income which keeps Texas disproportionately wealthy, an no intention of changing.

Furthermore you need to take a look at the top earners in college football. 6 of the Top 10 and the majority of the top 20 are in the SEC. The Big 10 only makes more in TV revenue, which I call Yankee welfare, distributed by the networks to try to rebuild a dying market full of eyeballs. This is why until the SECN there wasn't any kind of GOR for the SEC. Nobody wanted to leave the most lucrative league.

As to Kentucky to the ACC they looked at it and realized it was better to be king of basketball in the SEC than to fight for prominence in anything in the ACC, especially since their football has been historically weak. In other works the Cats' identity is tied to the SEC because of their basketball.

What I could see is a trade of Vanderbilt to the ACC for N.C. State. Both conferences would earn a more with the exchange of duplicated footprint schools for the sake of new markets. Vanderbilt would have to want this however as the SEC never asks a team to leave. But if something like this did happen I would especially look for interest in Baylor to replace them. Why? Having a private school in your conference keeps a conference from having to fully disclose revenues. Baylor is competitive athletically, would give us another Texas school helping to deliver the DFW market and while nowhere close to Vandy is above the SEC mean academically. Rice a much weaker athletic school with much less following might do the same and would be an academic replacement for Vandy.

But such thoughts are on the fringe of the twilight zone but that's okay.
09-10-2014 05:48 PM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: SEC raided
1. This theory died with the launch of the SEC network. it was however very realistic up until last month.

2. the SEC is one of just 2 P5 conferences that is plagued with the "Colorado dilemma." The fact of the matter is that no matter how you spin it, the SEC has a school that if given the opportunity, would leave for another conference in a heartbeat. I believe the Colorado Dilemma plagued the Big 12 from day 1 and no conference can really build themselves into a strong stable conference with that elephant in the room. That school is missouri and the only other schools who are in a similar situation are OU & WVU.
09-10-2014 08:33 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #5
RE: SEC raided
A lot of different scenarios have been developed during "realignment".
When ESPN moved Syracuse and Pitt into the ACC to join Boston College their marketing focus changed in the northeast. What ever "might" have taken place between some SEC schools and the ACC changed when that focus changed.
(This post was last modified: 09-10-2014 09:02 PM by XLance.)
09-10-2014 08:58 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: SEC raided
(09-10-2014 08:33 PM)john01992 Wrote:  1. This theory died with the launch of the SEC network. it was however very realistic up until last month.

2. the SEC is one of just 2 P5 conferences that is plagued with the "Colorado dilemma." The fact of the matter is that no matter how you spin it, the SEC has a school that if given the opportunity, would leave for another conference in a heartbeat. I believe the Colorado Dilemma plagued the Big 12 from day 1 and no conference can really build themselves into a strong stable conference with that elephant in the room. That school is missouri and the only other schools who are in a similar situation are OU & WVU.

The B1G doesn't want Mizzou badly enough to buy back the schools TV rights. Besides losing Mizzou would be a flesh wound to the SEC. Comparatively, the B12 losing CU was the equivalent of a broken hip.
09-11-2014 12:23 AM
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jhawkmvp Offline
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Post: #7
RE: SEC raided
Maybe. Colorado was not a huge loss. Good school (AAU and solid FB history), but not a real player in B12 FB for most of the last decade. Always a cultural outlier. If it was just them it would not have hurt much. Nebraska was the one that broke the B12's hip and made it is so the B12 had fallen and could not get up. CU was replaceable. NU was not. MU (AAU and solid FB history) to the B1G, instead of NU, would have been the same as CU. However, NU leaving rattled the B12 foundations and led to the instability in 2011 that saw MU and A&M leave and OU make some boneheaded public moves that will haunt the B12 for a long time, if it even survives more than the next decade.
09-11-2014 01:14 AM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #8
RE: SEC raided
(09-10-2014 05:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'm not going to torture you but the idea is simply not possible. The SECN is as Vandiver said a de facto GOR. And in realignment nobody moves except for much more money and the SECN stands to place the SEC above everyone else except the Big 10 by a fairly wide margin. Perhaps if the PACN sells part ownership to ESPN then Texas plus 3 to the PAC puts them into competition. But the ACC has little chance at a network until 2021 (and that is an eternity to be behind the SEC and Big 10 in the range of 10,000,000 a year). The Big 12 has no footprint, no revenue sharing for the T3 income which keeps Texas disproportionately wealthy, an no intention of changing.

Furthermore you need to take a look at the top earners in college football. 6 of the Top 10 and the majority of the top 20 are in the SEC. The Big 10 only makes more in TV revenue, which I call Yankee welfare, distributed by the networks to try to rebuild a dying market full of eyeballs. This is why until the SECN there wasn't any kind of GOR for the SEC. Nobody wanted to leave the most lucrative league.

As to Kentucky to the ACC they looked at it and realized it was better to be king of basketball in the SEC than to fight for prominence in anything in the ACC, especially since their football has been historically weak. In other works the Cats' identity is tied to the SEC because of their basketball.

What I could see is a trade of Vanderbilt to the ACC for N.C. State. Both conferences would earn a more with the exchange of duplicated footprint schools for the sake of new markets. Vanderbilt would have to want this however as the SEC never asks a team to leave. But if something like this did happen I would especially look for interest in Baylor to replace them. Why? Having a private school in your conference keeps a conference from having to fully disclose revenues. Baylor is competitive athletically, would give us another Texas school helping to deliver the DFW market and while nowhere close to Vandy is above the SEC mean academically. Rice a much weaker athletic school with much less following might do the same and would be an academic replacement for Vandy.

But such thoughts are on the fringe of the twilight zone but that's okay.

TCU is a good school. While it may not have the research acumen of Rice it has made big strides in football in recent years. It is also a natural rival with Baylor. Having three in Texas means the likes of Missouri and Arkansas can access the recruits in that state much better than with just A&M, who will continue to draw in the blue chippers, anyway. What to me favors TCU over Rice is that TCU is already a P5 school and the SEC may not want to raise a school from the G5, especially a private. TCU also is close to Baylor in endowments. Both would be good pickups for the SEC.

If Notre Dame ever becomes a full member of the ACC, then I could see the idea of a full ND, plus the likes of Duke, UNC, GT and UVA be very attractive to Vandy. NC State, if they were inclined to do so, would be able to escape from the shadow of UNC and associate itself with schools who are more like them. NC State is also a school, like UConn, that could find itself invited into the AAU in about twenty years' time.

Therefore, TCU, Baylor and NC State would more than replace what would be lost with Vandy in due time.

FSU - UM
GT - ND
CU - WVU
VU - UL
WF - BC
DU - SU
UNC - Pitt
UVA - VT

MO - KY
AR - NCSU
LSU - TN
A&M - SC
MS - AL
MSU - AU
TCU - FL
BU - GA
09-11-2014 01:49 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #9
RE: SEC raided
(09-10-2014 08:33 PM)john01992 Wrote:  1. This theory died with the launch of the SEC network. it was however very realistic up until last month.

2. the SEC is one of just 2 P5 conferences that is plagued with the "Colorado dilemma." The fact of the matter is that no matter how you spin it, the SEC has a school that if given the opportunity, would leave for another conference in a heartbeat. I believe the Colorado Dilemma plagued the Big 12 from day 1 and no conference can really build themselves into a strong stable conference with that elephant in the room. That school is missouri and the only other schools who are in a similar situation are OU & WVU.

John the SEC isn't built on Missouri. Missouri is grafting into the SEC. Colorado was a founding member of the Big 8 were they not? There is a big difference.
09-11-2014 03:45 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #10
RE: SEC raided
(09-11-2014 01:49 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(09-10-2014 05:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I'm not going to torture you but the idea is simply not possible. The SECN is as Vandiver said a de facto GOR. And in realignment nobody moves except for much more money and the SECN stands to place the SEC above everyone else except the Big 10 by a fairly wide margin. Perhaps if the PACN sells part ownership to ESPN then Texas plus 3 to the PAC puts them into competition. But the ACC has little chance at a network until 2021 (and that is an eternity to be behind the SEC and Big 10 in the range of 10,000,000 a year). The Big 12 has no footprint, no revenue sharing for the T3 income which keeps Texas disproportionately wealthy, an no intention of changing.

Furthermore you need to take a look at the top earners in college football. 6 of the Top 10 and the majority of the top 20 are in the SEC. The Big 10 only makes more in TV revenue, which I call Yankee welfare, distributed by the networks to try to rebuild a dying market full of eyeballs. This is why until the SECN there wasn't any kind of GOR for the SEC. Nobody wanted to leave the most lucrative league.

As to Kentucky to the ACC they looked at it and realized it was better to be king of basketball in the SEC than to fight for prominence in anything in the ACC, especially since their football has been historically weak. In other works the Cats' identity is tied to the SEC because of their basketball.

What I could see is a trade of Vanderbilt to the ACC for N.C. State. Both conferences would earn a more with the exchange of duplicated footprint schools for the sake of new markets. Vanderbilt would have to want this however as the SEC never asks a team to leave. But if something like this did happen I would especially look for interest in Baylor to replace them. Why? Having a private school in your conference keeps a conference from having to fully disclose revenues. Baylor is competitive athletically, would give us another Texas school helping to deliver the DFW market and while nowhere close to Vandy is above the SEC mean academically. Rice a much weaker athletic school with much less following might do the same and would be an academic replacement for Vandy.

But such thoughts are on the fringe of the twilight zone but that's okay.

TCU is a good school. While it may not have the research acumen of Rice it has made big strides in football in recent years. It is also a natural rival with Baylor. Having three in Texas means the likes of Missouri and Arkansas can access the recruits in that state much better than with just A&M, who will continue to draw in the blue chippers, anyway. What to me favors TCU over Rice is that TCU is already a P5 school and the SEC may not want to raise a school from the G5, especially a private. TCU also is close to Baylor in endowments. Both would be good pickups for the SEC.

If Notre Dame ever becomes a full member of the ACC, then I could see the idea of a full ND, plus the likes of Duke, UNC, GT and UVA be very attractive to Vandy. NC State, if they were inclined to do so, would be able to escape from the shadow of UNC and associate itself with schools who are more like them. NC State is also a school, like UConn, that could find itself invited into the AAU in about twenty years' time.

Therefore, TCU, Baylor and NC State would more than replace what would be lost with Vandy in due time.

FSU - UM
GT - ND
CU - WVU
VU - UL
WF - BC
DU - SU
UNC - Pitt
UVA - VT

MO - KY
AR - NCSU
LSU - TN
A&M - SC
MS - AL
MSU - AU
TCU - FL
BU - GA

I seriously doubt the SEC would take both Baylor and T.C.U.. Either delivers the DFW market, but Baylor has better academics and better all around athletics, not to mention a larger following. That said the only way we would take the Bears is if nothing is in the offing in the East and we needed a traveling companion for the Sooners. And that presents a minor rub. The Sooners by themselves deliver DFW as well as Oklahoma. So why Baylor? Because if a swap for N.C. State should ever occur we will need a private, emphasis on "a" private and a second Texas school and Baylor is probably considered in many fronts to be the #3 school in the state, (sorry Tech). If there were no interest ever on the horizon for a Vanderbilt/N.C. State deal then I think the SEC might have a dilemma on their hands. Who would be a mate for Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State, or West Virginia? With Oklahoma it might be argued that Kansas State or West Virginia would be more profitable, since OU covers DFW. WVU offers a slither of the Beltway and a slither of Pittsburgh but drags down the academics and brings a dubious acting fan base with it. Kansas State is not considered southern enough to fit the profile but offers a nice market. So there are no easy answers. All things being equal I would still take Baylor.
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2014 03:59 AM by JRsec.)
09-11-2014 03:56 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #11
RE: SEC raided
You guys are starting to get delusional re: NC State.
If you understood the politics of the state, you wouldn't even waste your time on speculation of the possibility.

And Vanderbilt to the ACC? We already have a Dook, why would we want another?
09-11-2014 07:25 AM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: SEC raided
(09-11-2014 07:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  You guys are starting to get delusional re: NC State.
If you understood the politics of the state, you wouldn't even waste your time on speculation of the possibility.

And Vanderbilt to the ACC? We already have a Dook, why would we want another?

The explain it to us. Would the Univ. System of NC really force NCSU to reject an SEC invite if one was forwarded?
09-11-2014 07:42 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #13
RE: SEC raided
(09-11-2014 07:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  You guys are starting to get delusional re: NC State.
If you understood the politics of the state, you wouldn't even waste your time on speculation of the possibility.

And Vanderbilt to the ACC? We already have a Dook, why would we want another?

Just permitting a bit of playfulness here on this one. It would take a major redirection for a lot of this to have a good look. The SEC won't be raided. Even Missouri is obligated to the Mouse now. The Big 12 is still the most likely to see change. How likely and when is another matter.
09-11-2014 07:51 AM
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XLance Offline
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RE: SEC raided
(09-11-2014 07:42 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(09-11-2014 07:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  You guys are starting to get delusional re: NC State.
If you understood the politics of the state, you wouldn't even waste your time on speculation of the possibility.

And Vanderbilt to the ACC? We already have a Dook, why would we want another?

The explain it to us. Would the Univ. System of NC really force NCSU to reject an SEC invite if one was forwarded?

Yep!
09-11-2014 08:08 AM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: SEC raided
(09-11-2014 08:08 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(09-11-2014 07:42 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(09-11-2014 07:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  You guys are starting to get delusional re: NC State.
If you understood the politics of the state, you wouldn't even waste your time on speculation of the possibility.

And Vanderbilt to the ACC? We already have a Dook, why would we want another?

The explain it to us. Would the Univ. System of NC really force NCSU to reject an SEC invite if one was forwarded?

Yep!

On the basis of what, that the Wolfpack might outshine the Tarheels in that state or would this simply be an act of spite?
09-11-2014 08:15 AM
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RE: SEC raided
(09-11-2014 03:56 AM)JRsec Wrote:  I seriously doubt the SEC would take both Baylor and T.C.U.. Either delivers the DFW market, but Baylor has better academics and better all around athletics, not to mention a larger following. That said the only way we would take the Bears is if nothing is in the offing in the East and we needed a traveling companion for the Sooners. And that presents a minor rub. The Sooners by themselves deliver DFW as well as Oklahoma. So why Baylor? Because if a swap for N.C. State should ever occur we will need a private, emphasis on "a" private and a second Texas school and Baylor is probably considered in many fronts to be the #3 school in the state, (sorry Tech). If there were no interest ever on the horizon for a Vanderbilt/N.C. State deal then I think the SEC might have a dilemma on their hands. Who would be a mate for Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State, or West Virginia? With Oklahoma it might be argued that Kansas State or West Virginia would be more profitable, since OU covers DFW. WVU offers a slither of the Beltway and a slither of Pittsburgh but drags down the academics and brings a dubious acting fan base with it. Kansas State is not considered southern enough to fit the profile but offers a nice market. So there are no easy answers. All things being equal I would still take Baylor.

I completely disagree about Baylor being number 3 in the state. Yes, Baylor has been good in football the past couple of years. They've had success in basketball as well (especially if you ignore the murder) and they've been consistently good in baseball.

That said, they've been the laughing stock of the Big 12 since its formation. What's the first thing Big 12 fans think of when they think of Baylor? The tarp. They always had the tarp covering seats in their football stadium so that it didn't look that empty. Sure they built a new stadium and it looks great, but you know what? The most that's been said about it around DFW is that the bricks around the field at the front of the stands aren't really bricks, they're tarps with brick images printed on them.

So where does Baylor rank as university in DFW? Certainly behind UT and A&M, everyone agrees on that. They're also well behind Texas Tech. In fact, of all the people that I know that pay any attention to college sports in DFW, I'd rank all of these schools as having more fans in DFW: Texas, A&M, Tech, SMU, TCU, OU, OK St, Ark, LSU, Notre Dame, and frankly, I'd even include North Texas, Texas State, and Kansas. I'm good friends with several Michigan and Ohio State fans as well.

Now maybe I just hang out in the wrong circles, and maybe there are more Baylor fans than I realize. There are 2 people in my office of about 300 guys that I've seen wearing Baylor stuff there. But hey, there are two Louisiana Tech fans there as well.

I'm probably ranting a bit too much on this, but I just don't see why there's been so much love of Baylor going to the SEC in so many different realignment boards. I get they have a good football team now, but 4 years ago nobody would have dreamed of including Baylor. SMU, TCU, and Houston would have been way ahead of Baylor back then, and probably even Rice because of their academics.

Has Baylor really done that much in the last 4 years? What happens if their football team returns to even just average? They're a small private school outside of a major market. If they were located within DFW like SMU and TCU are you could at least have that, but Waco isn't that close.

If the SEC wanted to increase presence in DFW in any measurable ammount, there are only two schools that would do that. Texas and OU. Other than that A&M covers enough of the area that adding a small private school is not going to change it enough.

If the SEC did indeed want a private school to replace Vandy, Miami would almost certainly get the first look. If they couldn't get Miami (due to GOR or any other reason) I'd think they'd go to SMU next. SMU gets teams a game in the city of Dallas, not 100 miles away, which would be great for recruiting. Rice and Tulane could also be considered.
09-11-2014 04:31 PM
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Post: #17
RE: SEC raided
(09-11-2014 04:31 PM)Phlipper33 Wrote:  
(09-11-2014 03:56 AM)JRsec Wrote:  I seriously doubt the SEC would take both Baylor and T.C.U.. Either delivers the DFW market, but Baylor has better academics and better all around athletics, not to mention a larger following. That said the only way we would take the Bears is if nothing is in the offing in the East and we needed a traveling companion for the Sooners. And that presents a minor rub. The Sooners by themselves deliver DFW as well as Oklahoma. So why Baylor? Because if a swap for N.C. State should ever occur we will need a private, emphasis on "a" private and a second Texas school and Baylor is probably considered in many fronts to be the #3 school in the state, (sorry Tech). If there were no interest ever on the horizon for a Vanderbilt/N.C. State deal then I think the SEC might have a dilemma on their hands. Who would be a mate for Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State, or West Virginia? With Oklahoma it might be argued that Kansas State or West Virginia would be more profitable, since OU covers DFW. WVU offers a slither of the Beltway and a slither of Pittsburgh but drags down the academics and brings a dubious acting fan base with it. Kansas State is not considered southern enough to fit the profile but offers a nice market. So there are no easy answers. All things being equal I would still take Baylor.

I completely disagree about Baylor being number 3 in the state. Yes, Baylor has been good in football the past couple of years. They've had success in basketball as well (especially if you ignore the murder) and they've been consistently good in baseball.

That said, they've been the laughing stock of the Big 12 since its formation. What's the first thing Big 12 fans think of when they think of Baylor? The tarp. They always had the tarp covering seats in their football stadium so that it didn't look that empty. Sure they built a new stadium and it looks great, but you know what? The most that's been said about it around DFW is that the bricks around the field at the front of the stands aren't really bricks, they're tarps with brick images printed on them.

So where does Baylor rank as university in DFW? Certainly behind UT and A&M, everyone agrees on that. They're also well behind Texas Tech. In fact, of all the people that I know that pay any attention to college sports in DFW, I'd rank all of these schools as having more fans in DFW: Texas, A&M, Tech, SMU, TCU, OU, OK St, Ark, LSU, Notre Dame, and frankly, I'd even include North Texas, Texas State, and Kansas. I'm good friends with several Michigan and Ohio State fans as well.

Now maybe I just hang out in the wrong circles, and maybe there are more Baylor fans than I realize. There are 2 people in my office of about 300 guys that I've seen wearing Baylor stuff there. But hey, there are two Louisiana Tech fans there as well.

I'm probably ranting a bit too much on this, but I just don't see why there's been so much love of Baylor going to the SEC in so many different realignment boards. I get they have a good football team now, but 4 years ago nobody would have dreamed of including Baylor. SMU, TCU, and Houston would have been way ahead of Baylor back then, and probably even Rice because of their academics.

Has Baylor really done that much in the last 4 years? What happens if their football team returns to even just average? They're a small private school outside of a major market. If they were located within DFW like SMU and TCU are you could at least have that, but Waco isn't that close.

If the SEC wanted to increase presence in DFW in any measurable ammount, there are only two schools that would do that. Texas and OU. Other than that A&M covers enough of the area that adding a small private school is not going to change it enough.

If the SEC did indeed want a private school to replace Vandy, Miami would almost certainly get the first look. If they couldn't get Miami (due to GOR or any other reason) I'd think they'd go to SMU next. SMU gets teams a game in the city of Dallas, not 100 miles away, which would be great for recruiting. Rice and Tulane could also be considered.

Why am I not surprised an A&M fan wants to minimize Baylor. If Baylor isn't #3 in the state, then who is? Tech? You claim that Baylor has been the laughing stock of the Big 12 since it's formation. How is that? Baylor has won 58 conference titles to Tech's 14. Baylor has won a Heisman, Tech hasn't.

You aren't sure if Baylor has done much in the last 4-5 years? In the last 5 years Baylor has set an NCAA single year record in 2011-2012 for wins in the four major sports of football, men's and women's basketball, and baseball with a record of 129-28. That year saw Baylor win the Alamo Bowl and the Heisman, Men's basketball make the Elite 8, Women's basketball go 40-0 on their way to a second national title, Women's basketball national coach and player of the year, and another Big 12 title in baseball. Over the last 5 years:
  • Baylor has been to 4 bowl games in football, won a Big 12 Championship, won a Heisman and had 16 players drafted to the NFL
  • Men's Basketball has gone 2 Elite 8's and a Sweet 16, Won the NIT Championship
  • Women's Basketball has won 4 straight Big 12 titles, 1 Sweet 16, 2 Elite 8's, a National Title, 3 straight Wade Trophies
  • Baseball won a conference title and made it to the Super Regionals
  • Softball went to 2 College World Series
  • Men's Tennis has won 3 conference titles, been to 2 Elite 8's and 3 Sweet 16's.
  • Women's Tennis has won 5 Conference Championships, 1 Final Four, 1 Elite 8, 1 Sweet 16 and a Round 32.

Even at Tech's peak, it has come no where close to the success of Baylor. If that makes Baylor the laughing stock of the Big 12, what does that make Tech?

Baylor is the oldest college in Texas, founded in 1845 by the Republic of Texas. While the two big boys in A&M and Texas are kings of the State, Baylor is clearly in the Top 3 with them. The last 5 years is exactly why the SEC is considering Baylor. While we may not be in DFW, we are an hour and half from DFW, Austin and Houston. Tech is 6-8 hours from any prime recruiting area in the state. You should get to know the people you work with, I will guarantee more than 2 people know about Baylor and are fans of Baylor.
09-11-2014 10:24 PM
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Phlipper33 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: SEC raided
What I meant by the "Has Baylor really done that much in the last 4 years" question was that they were so bad in football (what really matters) prior to this run was, is this current run really enough to overlook the fact that they had only something like 11 conference wins in like the first 12 years of the league? I will admit they have been fabulous lately, but will they keep it up?

Sure they've been around a long time. They are still a tiny school. A tiny school that was horrendous at football for a long time. SMU received the death penalty and was horrible for 20 years (and appears to be again) but they still have more fans in DFW because they are located here. I would have ranked TCU below both of the them, but over the last 15 years they built a winning tradition and earned that Big 12 invite. Baylor got into the Big 12 because the governor of Texas at the time was a Baylor grad.

Baylor is a fine school, they have good academics, and their non-football sports have been pretty good. Unfortunately, Texas likes football (I'm also a Rangers season ticket holder, and hated when Josh Hamilton said we weren't a baseball town, but it's true - we care about football).

Texas Tech had their first losing season in the Big 12 in 2011. They were the only Big 12 team to not have a losing record in any season for I believe 6 seasons prior to that. I'm too lazy to look that up right now, but they've been above average the entire time the Big 12 has existed. They are far from being a laughing stock in the league, and as a large public school, they have a pretty good following.

Baylor has been good in basketball, both mens and womens, and yes that does improve their stock. But their mens basketball team is nowhere near the level of Texas or Kansas, and without looking at their records, I'd guess that Oklahoma State has had a better record in the Big 12 than Baylor in mens basketball. Women basketball? Sure, they dominate. How far down the line does womens basketball count when it comes to realignment? How about all those other conference championships they have? Nobody cares how good they are in golf or tennis or whatever.

I'm sure Baylor is beginning to get some fans in the area that are in high school or recently graduated because of their recent success. But the 25-50 year old male remembers a lot of Baylor losses. Of course, those same people remember a lot of SMU losses as well. Do I really think SMU has a chance of making it into the SEC? Not anytime soon. But hey, if I were to pick a school to specifically replace Vandy, I'd have to give SMU a long look simply because of those two schools history (Vandy was originally a Southern Methodist university, but they decided they didn't want to be religiously affiliated anymore and split from the church, which then founded SMU)

Realistically, I don't see Vandy leaving, and the only schools west of the Mississippi that I'd consider for SEC expansion is OU and UT. Yes, being and Aggie, I'd pick OU first, but the SEC would almost certainly expand by 2 so UT would get the second pick. That being said, I'd only expand in the west if there was no way I could get into N Carolina and Virginia. If ECU can get their academics up, I'd love to have them and Va Tech join the league. I think ECU is more SEC like than either UNC or NC State, and would love to have another football crazy school like that. Likewise, I'd much rather have Va Tech over UVA, even if UVA is more academically prestigious. I'd have no problem waiting until the ACC GOR are up and see how far ECU has come in academics before making a decision though.

I know football doesn't count for everything in realignment, but its the primary factor for most conferences simply because of the money involved. And hey, if Baylor can consistently win 8 games a year between now and the end of the GOR, they'd get a look too. I just don't think the past 4 years is enough to erase the previous 20 years of being arguably the worst football team in any BCS conference.
09-12-2014 12:49 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #19
RE: SEC raided
(09-12-2014 12:49 AM)Phlipper33 Wrote:  What I meant by the "Has Baylor really done that much in the last 4 years" question was that they were so bad in football (what really matters) prior to this run was, is this current run really enough to overlook the fact that they had only something like 11 conference wins in like the first 12 years of the league? I will admit they have been fabulous lately, but will they keep it up?

Sure they've been around a long time. They are still a tiny school. A tiny school that was horrendous at football for a long time. SMU received the death penalty and was horrible for 20 years (and appears to be again) but they still have more fans in DFW because they are located here. I would have ranked TCU below both of the them, but over the last 15 years they built a winning tradition and earned that Big 12 invite. Baylor got into the Big 12 because the governor of Texas at the time was a Baylor grad.

Baylor is a fine school, they have good academics, and their non-football sports have been pretty good. Unfortunately, Texas likes football (I'm also a Rangers season ticket holder, and hated when Josh Hamilton said we weren't a baseball town, but it's true - we care about football).

Texas Tech had their first losing season in the Big 12 in 2011. They were the only Big 12 team to not have a losing record in any season for I believe 6 seasons prior to that. I'm too lazy to look that up right now, but they've been above average the entire time the Big 12 has existed. They are far from being a laughing stock in the league, and as a large public school, they have a pretty good following.

Baylor has been good in basketball, both mens and womens, and yes that does improve their stock. But their mens basketball team is nowhere near the level of Texas or Kansas, and without looking at their records, I'd guess that Oklahoma State has had a better record in the Big 12 than Baylor in mens basketball. Women basketball? Sure, they dominate. How far down the line does womens basketball count when it comes to realignment? How about all those other conference championships they have? Nobody cares how good they are in golf or tennis or whatever.

I'm sure Baylor is beginning to get some fans in the area that are in high school or recently graduated because of their recent success. But the 25-50 year old male remembers a lot of Baylor losses. Of course, those same people remember a lot of SMU losses as well. Do I really think SMU has a chance of making it into the SEC? Not anytime soon. But hey, if I were to pick a school to specifically replace Vandy, I'd have to give SMU a long look simply because of those two schools history (Vandy was originally a Southern Methodist university, but they decided they didn't want to be religiously affiliated anymore and split from the church, which then founded SMU)

Realistically, I don't see Vandy leaving, and the only schools west of the Mississippi that I'd consider for SEC expansion is OU and UT. Yes, being and Aggie, I'd pick OU first, but the SEC would almost certainly expand by 2 so UT would get the second pick. That being said, I'd only expand in the west if there was no way I could get into N Carolina and Virginia. If ECU can get their academics up, I'd love to have them and Va Tech join the league. I think ECU is more SEC like than either UNC or NC State, and would love to have another football crazy school like that. Likewise, I'd much rather have Va Tech over UVA, even if UVA is more academically prestigious. I'd have no problem waiting until the ACC GOR are up and see how far ECU has come in academics before making a decision though.

I know football doesn't count for everything in realignment, but its the primary factor for most conferences simply because of the money involved. And hey, if Baylor can consistently win 8 games a year between now and the end of the GOR, they'd get a look too. I just don't think the past 4 years is enough to erase the previous 20 years of being arguably the worst football team in any BCS conference.

I agree with you about Va Tech, but not so much about E.C.U. because of the time frame it would take them to get up to speed. N.C. State puts our network right into Raleigh/Durham and that is right were we need to be. But, I do like the where the Pirates are headed. I also agree that the first two choices to the West would be OU and Steak on a Hoof. But, I think ESPN will use the sacred cow to get leverage into the PACN or to bolster the ACCN. I don't see them headed on the long drive to the Chicago slaughterhouse. Although that would be funny!
09-12-2014 03:37 AM
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john01992 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: SEC raided
(09-11-2014 12:23 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(09-10-2014 08:33 PM)john01992 Wrote:  1. This theory died with the launch of the SEC network. it was however very realistic up until last month.

2. the SEC is one of just 2 P5 conferences that is plagued with the "Colorado dilemma." The fact of the matter is that no matter how you spin it, the SEC has a school that if given the opportunity, would leave for another conference in a heartbeat. I believe the Colorado Dilemma plagued the Big 12 from day 1 and no conference can really build themselves into a strong stable conference with that elephant in the room. That school is missouri and the only other schools who are in a similar situation are OU & WVU.

The B1G doesn't want Mizzou badly enough to buy back the schools TV rights. Besides losing Mizzou would be a flesh wound to the SEC. Comparatively, the B12 losing CU was the equivalent of a broken hip.

(09-11-2014 03:45 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(09-10-2014 08:33 PM)john01992 Wrote:  1. This theory died with the launch of the SEC network. it was however very realistic up until last month.

2. the SEC is one of just 2 P5 conferences that is plagued with the "Colorado dilemma." The fact of the matter is that no matter how you spin it, the SEC has a school that if given the opportunity, would leave for another conference in a heartbeat. I believe the Colorado Dilemma plagued the Big 12 from day 1 and no conference can really build themselves into a strong stable conference with that elephant in the room. That school is missouri and the only other schools who are in a similar situation are OU & WVU.

John the SEC isn't built on Missouri. Missouri is grafting into the SEC. Colorado was a founding member of the Big 8 were they not? There is a big difference.

It's not about whether losing missouri would significantly hurt the SEC, my point is that when you don't have every school "all in" in terms of:

"This is our dream conference, there is no better place for us, so lets make this conference as successful as possible"

When you have every school thinking like that it is a huge advantage to the conference.
09-12-2014 09:14 AM
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