http://www.freep.com/article/20140910/CO...o-Sun-Belt

Thought provoking article.

The B1G commish looks like he has aged watching B1G FB take it on the chin.

Saturday's debacle was not good for the B1G.

Un-huh, Delany and the P1GS avoid a photo op and defense of their interests like owls avoid trees.

*shrug* I wrote this years ago on this board.

Even alluded to it earlier this year
http://csnbbs.com/thread-665840-post-102...id10273798

Yep, I remember having those discussions on here.

UCF and USF went from literally nothing to national players within a span of a couple decades. This wasn't due to genius ADs. It's simple population and demographic shifts.

We also get to check out UT-San Antonio go from zilch to a very competitive FBS program in the blink of an eye.

Let me also add that I believe the demographic shifts will ultimately result in some Midwest university closures/mergers.

There is some obvious savings to be had w/ mergers starting w/ Ohio.

Eventually... we'll see populations shift back to the Great Lakes region. We have all the water and we don't intend to share....

KSU and Ohio U just last week announced forming an extensive educational partnership. Plan is to align the U's in several areas.

Plain Dealer

Here is another perspective written last year that focuses on the Big Ten Network killing the Big Ten national exposure.

http://stholeary.blogspot.com/2013/10/ho...g-ten.html

Several years ago, someone from the national press had a very similar take on why the Big 10 was faltering except it included another key insight.

In addition to the population declining in the Midwest, football participation rates for highschools are lower than the southern states. If I recall correctly, the state of Georgia has more students playing football than does the state of Ohio, even though Ohio's population is larger by some 1.5 million people.

(09-10-2014 08:20 AM)DrTorch Wrote:  Let me also add that I believe the demographic shifts will ultimately result in some Midwest university closures/mergers.

There is some obvious savings to be had w/ mergers starting w/ Ohio.

Cincinnati alum/fan who comes in peace.

I concur with the demographic shifts being a factor for B1G success (or lack thereof). UC has made an emphasis with the last couple coaching staffs of recruiting in the south. If you look at our roster and our current recruiting class you will notice a significant number of players from Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Virginia and the Carolinas.

In terms of mergers/closures, I think larger public schools in Ohio are safe. Many of these schools are having record sized classes coming in. I think the schools in Ohio that are vulnerable are your smaller to mid-sized private schools. These schools are not able to offer the finanical aid they onced offered and as a result a kid who may have gone to Wittenberg (for an example) in the past is going to a public college instead (note: this is not just an Ohio/midwest issue it is something these schools are facing across the country).

(09-10-2014 09:12 AM)IULurker Wrote:  Several years ago, someone from the national press had a very similar take on why the Big 10 was faltering except it included another key insight.

In addition to the population declining in the Midwest, football participation rates for highschools are lower than the southern states. If I recall correctly, the state of Georgia has more students playing football than does the state of Ohio, even though Ohio's population is larger by some 1.5 million people.

Agreed. Those southern states are not too big on soccer and youth lacrosse and hockey programs are basically non-existent there.

(09-10-2014 08:20 AM)DrTorch Wrote:  Let me also add that I believe the demographic shifts will ultimately result in some Midwest university closures/mergers.

There is some obvious savings to be had w/ mergers starting w/ Ohio.

Ohio has nothing to do in comparison to Illinois. We have numerous schools that don't graduate half the students and are there for politician and educators to suck money from the trough.

(09-10-2014 09:18 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(09-10-2014 09:12 AM)IULurker Wrote:  Several years ago, someone from the national press had a very similar take on why the Big 10 was faltering except it included another key insight.

In addition to the population declining in the Midwest, football participation rates for highschools are lower than the southern states. If I recall correctly, the state of Georgia has more students playing football than does the state of Ohio, even though Ohio's population is larger by some 1.5 million people.

Agreed. Those southern states are not too big on soccer and youth lacrosse and hockey programs are basically non-existent there.

Soccer and youth soccer is huge in Florida.

(09-10-2014 08:37 AM)El Grande Flippero Wrote:  Eventually... we'll see populations shift back to the Great Lakes region. We have all the water and we don't intend to share....

You got that right, take a look at the US Drought Map; Texas, NM, AZ, Cali, Nevada & Oregon are in a world of hurt

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/State...or.aspx?OK

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/State...or.aspx?TX
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/State...or.aspx?NM
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/State...or.aspx?UT
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/State...or.aspx?NV
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/State...or.aspx?CA
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/State...or.aspx?OR

Not to hijack the thread, but I don't want all those people moving to Illinois or the midwest. What I do want is their $, I would never send any water out of the Midwest without getting big $ in return. Say $2-$3 a gallon. ANy state that wants it has to pay the cost of constructing a pipeline. There's a ton of $ that can be sucked out of Texas, Cali & Nevada

This means that for MAC programs to be successful, talent has to be recruited out of other regions and it's helpful to play 1-1 with programs in those regions to build name recognition in those states.

NIU wisely has added series with BYU, Utah State and SD ST. Would like to see series added with Fresno State or SJ ST also along with some Texas programs (SMU).

Dallas has a horde of talent as does central California and the Bay area.

(09-10-2014 12:14 PM)Policiious Wrote:  This means that for MAC programs to be successful, talent has to be recruited out of other regions and it's helpful to play 1-1 with programs in those regions to build name recognition in those states.

That would be considered 'strategy' and I don't believe MAC administrators are allowed to employ such.

Youth baseball is also huge in Florida. Kids in the southern part of the state play baseball year round. If you look at where MLB players are from, the south is over-represented vs population but even in the "colder" states like Arkansas kids who are serious about baseball will play from late February to mid-November.

The thing about population movement is that not all population movement equals an impact. If someone in Cleveland reaches retirement age and moves to a retirement haven in Florida, Texas, Nevada or Arizona, it may cost you a little bit as that person puts their house on the market sooner and spends their retirement check in a different place but other than maybe depressing ticket sales slightly it's not a huge hit.

When a 28 year-old couple leaves in search of work and takes their 2.2 kids with them, you've reduced demand to buy the retiree's house you've lost income taxes that would be larger than a typical retiree would pay and those kids probably aren't coming back to Michigan or Ohio or Indiana to go to college, athlete or not.

Nationally the numbers say enrollment in college is likely to fall over the next decade. It won't be the first time. There were shockwaves when the colleges ran out of post-WWII GI Bill students. There were schools closing and merging and schools dropped football. Happened again in the 1970's as the boomers started thinning out and kids quit going to college to avoid the draft. Arkansas had three colleges fail in less than three years and ended up merged into the UA system, one of the campuses reportedly had less than $5 cash remaining when they were taken over. The 70's saw schools dropping football as well.

Add to the mix declining state aid to schools and it gets ugly.

North Texas had to cut their budget like 3%. They had budgeted to spend 100% of income and then enrollment didn't hit expectation. AState's CFO (great lady) keeps the screws to the campuses and they aren't allowed to budget 100% of revenue projections, that's why our bond rating went up when other schools have seen their rating fall.

For the most part though larger campus schools will generally be fine with some belt tightening as long as they aren't carrying too high of a debt load. Maryland got in that crack in athletics and but for the B1G call they were in trouble, they were nearing the point where they would no longer have sufficent reserves to service the debt.

So things trend around. There has been a talent migration and there will be some schools in crisis around the country but economic conditions change. The south has been popular for cheap labor and cheap land. In coming years it is likely that some of the shuttered factories of the "rust belt" will be cost-effective to repurpose vs bulldozing a pine tree farm in Alabama.

(09-10-2014 12:41 PM)DrTorch Wrote:  

(09-10-2014 12:14 PM)Policiious Wrote:  This means that for MAC programs to be successful, talent has to be recruited out of other regions and it's helpful to play 1-1 with programs in those regions to build name recognition in those states.

That would be considered 'strategy' and I don't believe MAC administrators are allowed to employ such.

BGSU's AD has done a fine job scheduling OOC opponents to build name recognition in regions with abundant recruits

2015
09/13 - Indiana
09/12 - at Maryland
2016 2017
09/03 - at Ohio State
09/17 - Middle Tennessee
09/24 - at Memphis
09/23 - at Middle Tennessee
2018 2019
09/01 - at Oregon
09/08 - Maryland
09/22 - at Louisiana Tech
08/31 - at Maryland
09/07 - at Kansas State
09/14 - Louisiana Tech
2020 2021
TBA
09/11 - South Alabama
2022 2023
09/03 - at South Alabama

(09-11-2014 02:15 AM)Policiious Wrote:  

(09-10-2014 12:41 PM)DrTorch Wrote:  

(09-10-2014 12:14 PM)Policiious Wrote:  This means that for MAC programs to be successful, talent has to be recruited out of other regions and it's helpful to play 1-1 with programs in those regions to build name recognition in those states.

That would be considered 'strategy' and I don't believe MAC administrators are allowed to employ such.

BGSU's AD has done a fine job scheduling OOC opponents to build name recognition in regions with abundant recruits

2015
09/13 - Indiana
09/12 - at Maryland
2016 2017
09/03 - at Ohio State
09/17 - Middle Tennessee
09/24 - at Memphis
09/23 - at Middle Tennessee
2018 2019
09/01 - at Oregon
09/08 - Maryland
09/22 - at Louisiana Tech
08/31 - at Maryland
09/07 - at Kansas State
09/14 - Louisiana Tech
2020 2021
TBA
09/11 - South Alabama
2022 2023
09/03 - at South Alabama

Uh, I'm not seeing it.

NIU has been recruiting Florida for quite a while, but have not played in Florida other than the Orange Bowl game. They also get some recruits from Alabama but I don't think we've played there since we played Alabama in 2003.