I think there's enough talent in the city in the next couple of years for us to make a nice run at a Sweet 16 and get some national recognition. Once that happens the Memphis brand, nationally, will begin to trend upwards again. Like it or not, we've hit a bit of a lull recently...but, on the bright side, if a "lull" means being ranked in the Top-25 and making NCAA tournaments, then that just shows what kind of program we are and what kind of program we can be.

(09-01-2014 04:32 PM)80sTiger Wrote:  The 'pain train' is coming. This thread is way too civil so far considering the OP.

I think the "pain-train" is on an involuntary vacation. Civility may have a chance now.

(09-01-2014 11:31 PM)450bench Wrote:  I'm not a Josh guy, but he's not losing his touch with respect to recruiting, IMO. Not at all. I think he's actually finding his niche. He may be on the radar for some big names and some will cross him off, for whatever reason, and then he'll move on to others. I think these coaches know when they have a real prospect and know when a prospect is a shot in the dark.
It's a bump in the road.

Exactly. The 2015 recruiting seson has barely started.

(09-01-2014 11:31 PM)450bench Wrote:  I'm not a Josh guy, but he's not losing his touch with respect to recruiting, IMO. Not at all. I think he's actually finding his niche. He may be on the radar for some big names and some will cross him off, for whatever reason, and then he'll move on to others. I think these coaches know when they have a real prospect and know when a prospect is a shot in the dark.
It's a bump in the road.

Excellent post

I agree

(09-02-2014 12:02 PM)bengltgrs Wrote:  

(09-01-2014 11:31 PM)450bench Wrote:  I'm not a Josh guy, but he's not losing his touch with respect to recruiting, IMO. Not at all. I think he's actually finding his niche. He may be on the radar for some big names and some will cross him off, for whatever reason, and then he'll move on to others. I think these coaches know when they have a real prospect and know when a prospect is a shot in the dark.
It's a bump in the road.

Exactly. The 2015 recruiting seson has barely started.

It started a while ago...

(09-02-2014 08:43 AM)HometownTiger Wrote:  I think there's enough talent in the city in the next couple of years for us to make a nice run at a Sweet 16 and get some national recognition. Once that happens the Memphis brand, nationally, will begin to trend upwards again. Like it or not, we've hit a bit of a lull recently...but, on the bright side, if a "lull" means being ranked in the Top-25 and making NCAA tournaments, then that just shows what kind of program we are and what kind of program we can be.

I don't really see the 'lull" you are talking about.

2013 was Pastners 5th class and may have been the deepest and highest rated class in program history (it included 4 kids from outside the city). Lets be honest here, what kind of coach wouldn't have signed Nichols and King? The entire 2014 class was made of non Memphis kids (except Hawkins) and purposely filled with several highly rated Juco's and transfers to even out our young, inexperienced roster. And Josh still added another 4 star freshman from Louisiana.

Since then we've added 2 more 4 star recruits and a 5 star who is top 10 in his class.

And all of this while outside of the P5 conferences looking in.

Seems to me like we are recruiting at an extremely high level, both in Memphis and nationally.

Were we not supposed to take the Lawsons for future strategic "national" recruiting concerns? Were we supposed to already have 4-5 ESPN Top100 players committed this early in the '15 and '16 classes? We already have 3 now and the early '15 signing period isn't even until mid November.

This just seems like a very nitpicky and opportunist type of theory.

I'm not suggesting you are trolling. I know you aren't, that's not you. You are just thinking aloud and discussing a theory that I totally disagree with.

(09-02-2014 12:36 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(09-02-2014 08:43 AM)HometownTiger Wrote:  I think there's enough talent in the city in the next couple of years for us to make a nice run at a Sweet 16 and get some national recognition. Once that happens the Memphis brand, nationally, will begin to trend upwards again. Like it or not, we've hit a bit of a lull recently...but, on the bright side, if a "lull" means being ranked in the Top-25 and making NCAA tournaments, then that just shows what kind of program we are and what kind of program we can be.

I don't really see the 'lull" you are talking about.

2013 was Pastners 5th class and may have been the deepest and highest rated class in program history. The entire 2014 class was made of of non Memphis kids (except Hawkins) and purposely filled with several highly rated Juco's and transfers to even out our young, inexperienced roster. And Josh still added another 4 star freshman from Florida.

Since then we've added 2 more 4 star recruits and a 5 star who is top 10 in his class.

Seems to me like we are recruiting at an extremely high level, both in Memphis and nationally.

Were we not supposed to take the Lawsons for future strategic "national" recruiting concerns? Were we supposed to already have multiple 4 and 5 star players committed this early in the '15 and '16 classes?

This just seems like a very nitpicky and opportunist type of theory.

I'm not suggesting you are trolling. I know you aren't, that's not you. You are just thinking aloud and discussing a theory that I disagree with.

The "lull" I am referring to is in reference to being legitimately involved and landing top kids from out of the city. To your point...when you consider the recruits Josh gets from Memphis, it's hard to consider anything a "lull". However, the entire basis of my argument is this: when/if the talent pool in the city dries up for a few years, will we still be able to add 5-stars to our recruiting classes. Granted, we may not NEED to due to 5-star local holdovers from previous classes. We can add 3 & 4-star role players from outside the city to compliment the elite Memphis holdovers. OR Memphis may have a heightened national perception by that time due to NCAA tournament success in the coming years (hopefully).

I'm not trying to look too far ahead, because recruiting can & will change. BUT, looking at where we stand RIGHT NOW and over the last 2-3 years...it would seem like we are trending down (re: national recruits).

For example, in the C/O 2015 there are 17 uncommitted, non-local Top 30 prospects. Memphis isn't on/isn't expected to be on any of their short lists (based on public knowledge)

Below is the list of non-local TOP 30 Recruits (Rivals) who had us on their "short list" ...

2015:
None (as of now)

2014:
Cliff Alexander (KU)
Jaquon Lyle (ORE)

2013:
Tyler Ennis (SYR)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (ARI)
Roburt Hubbs (TEN)
Kuran Iverson (MEM)

2012:
Alex Poythress (UK)
Archie Goodwin (UK)
Perry Ellis (KU)
Tony Parker (UCLA)

2011:
Anthony Davis (UK)
Trevor Lacy (ALA)
Ky Madden (ARK)
Otto Porter (GTWN)

It just seems like we are beginning to trend away from being deeply involved with elite non-local recruits. That's all I'm saying...

Your whole premise is based on a speculative scenario that really isn't plausible imo.

The Memphis/metro area isn't going to dry up in talent for an extended period. We might have a stretch without a true 5 star for a few years, but there will consistently be a talented array of mid and high 4 star players coming out of this area every single year for years to come.

Plus Josh is landing 4 or 5 star recruits from outside the city every single year, often multiple players per class. Until that stops happening (we just landed one this past week), you can not truthfully say there is a fall off in that area.

I think most would also agree that this is a new era of college BB with the insane number of transfers. It is infinitely easier to sure up botched recruiting classes, temporarily fill holes or gaps with real talent & experience and a great way to add depth if needed.

Interestingly, we recently seem to be doing better with regional kids from outside the Memphis city limits than previous times. We are landing talented kids from the metro area and beyond including an upper middle class white kid from Collierville, Dom Magee from Louisianan, Avery Woodson who was in Mississippi, Nick Marshall is from Lexington TN and we had Coelby, another Miss recruit practically in the bag until it got dirty with OM in the final hours.

What we are seeing is a change in Pastners approach to recruiting by mixing older, talented transfers with 4/5 star freshman both nationally and from Memphis. Such changes should be expected, its what young coaches do....learn, adjust and mature.

Thankfully (for his job security as well as our program), Pastner has been very resourceful in finding talent and keeping the overall talent level on the roster high. Frankly, he's only really had a few out of area HS or prep school recruits (Shaq, Will, Kendrick). He's gotten the great talent in city to stay home, he's done really well filling gaps with one year transfers and he has lessened the sting of what would be a rebuilding year with some reliable JuCos. If and when he starts winning big, he can start bagging top 10 recruits from elsewhere. Til that time, he's keep the talent level up there in other ways.

(09-02-2014 03:31 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  Thankfully (for his job security as well as our program), Pastner has been very resourceful in finding talent and keeping the overall talent level on the roster high. Frankly, he's only really had a few out of area HS or prep school recruits (Shaq, Will, Kendrick). He's gotten the great talent in city to stay home, he's done really well filling gaps with one year transfers and he has lessened the sting of what would be a rebuilding year with some reliable JuCos. If and when he starts winning big, he can start bagging top 10 recruits from elsewhere. Til that time, he's keep the talent level up there in other ways.

You did forget a few guys though.

Kuran Iverson
Dominic Woodson
Pookie Powell
Austin Nichols
Dominic Magee
Nick Marshall


All of these in the last 2 years.

Nichols is obviously debatable but I think we all would agree he is definitely not the typical Memphis kid and was an impressive and more surprising land.

(09-02-2014 04:16 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(09-02-2014 03:31 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  Thankfully (for his job security as well as our program), Pastner has been very resourceful in finding talent and keeping the overall talent level on the roster high. Frankly, he's only really had a few out of area HS or prep school recruits (Shaq, Will, Kendrick). He's gotten the great talent in city to stay home, he's done really well filling gaps with one year transfers and he has lessened the sting of what would be a rebuilding year with some reliable JuCos. If and when he starts winning big, he can start bagging top 10 recruits from elsewhere. Til that time, he's keep the talent level up there in other ways.

You did forget a few guys though.

Kuran Iverson
Dominic Woodson
Pookie Powell
Austin Nichols
Dominic Magee
Nick Marshall


All of these in the last 2 years.

Nichols is obvious debatable but I think we all would agree he is definitely not the typical Memphis kid and was an impressive and more surprising land.

Iverson isn't on the same level as the 3 I mentioned. Will is playing in the NBA and Shaq and Kendrick were All-Americans. Iverson may develop into a great player, but he wasn't as highly sought after as these three. But again, he's just one player.

That's a fine list of other players, all top 100 or so I believe. But that's my point, Pastner isn't getting the Blue Chippers from out of the Region (and he really never has), he's just getting top 100 types.

(09-02-2014 04:23 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  Iverson isn't on the same level as the 3 I mentioned. Will is playing in the NBA and Shaq and Kendrick were All-Americans. Iverson may develop into a great player, but he wasn't as highly sought after as these three. But again, he's just one player.

That's a fine list of other players, all top 100 or so I believe. But that's my point, Pastner isn't getting the Blue Chippers from out of the Region (and he really never has), he's just getting top 100 types.

Well what they did after the fact is a whole other conversation.

Obviously I was just commenting on their recruiting rankings when were trying to land them. Iverson (#33) was ranked 11 spots higher than Kendrick (#44) and just 2 spots lower than Shaq (#31) on ESPN's list. Rivals had Shaq all the way down to #44.

I think judging it just by top 10 guys is asking a bit much. They are hard to land consistently for everyone, save about 4-5 programs. We could get to that point with a few F4's. Yet we do still land them on occasion.

Pastner does consistently land top 100 out of towners, and we can't be a great program without doing that.

For whatever reason the 2010 class underachieved according to their rankings. Whether they were overrated or whether it was coaching is debatable. The 2013 class was highly regarded too. So far Nichols looks good out of that class and King looks promising. Let's see how they all pan out in the next 2-3 years.

There is no trend developing. People have always been trying to find flaws with Josh. If anything, the trend continues.

(09-02-2014 07:39 PM)memphistiger001 Wrote:  There is no trend developing. People have always been trying to find flaws with Josh. If anything, the trend continues.

Bingo

My whole point is this...when a non-local top 25 prospect lists all the schools recruiting him and Memphis is in the mix, do you REALLY think we land him or do you think we miss out?

Furthermore, do you think we even make the final 3-5 on his list. It seems like recently, we haven't had as much success in that regard. I remember a time (just 3-4 years ago) that I had a really good feeling about landing 1-2 elite non-locals each class. I just hope this past year's class was an anomaly and not the beginning of a downward trend. I hope it's a coincidence that the worst recruiting year in Pastner's tenure coincides with an unusually shallow local talent pool.

(09-02-2014 10:00 PM)HometownTiger Wrote:  My whole point is this...when a non-local top 25 prospect lists all the schools recruiting him and Memphis is in the mix, do you REALLY think we land him or do you think we miss out?

Furthermore, do you think we even make the final 3-5 on his list. It seems like recently, we haven't had as much success in that regard. I remember a time (just 3-4 years ago) that I had a really good feeling about landing 1-2 elite non-locals each class. I just hope this past year's class was an anomaly and not the beginning of a downward trend. I hope it's a coincidence that the worst recruiting year in Pastner's tenure coincides with an unusually shallow local talent pool.

I agree with this, although I don't think this trend is just now developing. I think it's been the case throughout Pastner's career. It'll stay that way until he breaks the NCAA glass ceiling.

(09-02-2014 04:25 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  I think judging it just by top 10 guys is asking a bit much. They are hard to land consistently for everyone, save about 4-5 programs. We could get to that point with a few F4's. Yet we do still land them on occasion.

Pastner does consistently land top 100 out of towners, and we can't be a great program without doing that.

Spot on. I sure hope we are not complaining about consistently landing top 100 guys from out of the Memphis Metropolitan area.

(09-03-2014 10:30 AM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(09-02-2014 10:00 PM)HometownTiger Wrote:  My whole point is this...when a non-local top 25 prospect lists all the schools recruiting him and Memphis is in the mix, do you REALLY think we land him or do you think we miss out?

Furthermore, do you think we even make the final 3-5 on his list. It seems like recently, we haven't had as much success in that regard. I remember a time (just 3-4 years ago) that I had a really good feeling about landing 1-2 elite non-locals each class. I just hope this past year's class was an anomaly and not the beginning of a downward trend. I hope it's a coincidence that the worst recruiting year in Pastner's tenure coincides with an unusually shallow local talent pool.

I agree with this, although I don't think this trend is just now developing. I think it's been the case throughout Pastner's career. It'll stay that way until he breaks the NCAA glass ceiling.

Agreed. Maybe I'm jumping the gun...but if we look back and I'm right, I expect someone to bump this thread LOL.

Compared to Cal's first 4-5 years and basically the whole history of the program, Pastner has had more non-Memphis recruiting success. You can debate whether he's coached them well enough, if his personality works, etc., but at this point I don't see how we can be concerned about his non-Memphis recruiting success. We are a top-25 level program but not a top 5 or 10. So, other than the end of Cal's tenure, we are generally not going to land a top-5 national recruit unless there is some connection like Cal and Wagner. We just generally are not going to beat out Kansas, NC, Duke, Kentucky for a non-Memphis kid but we can compete with the next level of schools which is why we got Shaq, Kendrick, Iverson, etc. will Barton was highest non-Memphis kid weve landed with Pastner, right? Maybe that's the trend if anything, that we haven't landed another top-10 level player from outside Memphis but then we've only had a few of those ever in the history of the program. I don't see recruiting, in Memphis and outside Memphis as a problem at all - in fact you can argue that's at the highest level it's ever been other than the last few yrs of Cal. I do think it's fair to question whether Pastner has under-achieved when you consider the recruiting though. Just my thoughts - I've gone up and down as far as my opinion of whether Pastner is the right guy here but that's been about his abilities as a motivator, in game preparation, etc., not recruiting.