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Phil Steele - Home Field Advantages 2014
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orangefan Offline
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Phil Steele - Home Field Advantages 2014
http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/AUG...ust23.html

All 128 FBS schools ranked, with 8 schools tied for first with a 5.5 point advantage and Georgia State in last with 1.75 point advantage.

ACC Members:
9. Va. Tech 5.25
13. Clemson 5.0
13. FSU 5.0
31. UNC 4.5
36. Ga. Tech 4.25
48. NC St. 4.0
48. Pitt 4.0
58. BC 3.75
58. Miami 3.75
58. Syracuse 3.75
69. Louisville 3.5
82. Duke 3.25
82. Wake 3.25
82. Virginia 3.25

And, of course:
21. ND 4.75
08-24-2014 10:11 AM
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Hokie Mark Online
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RE: Phil Steele - Home Field Advantages 2014
Good info - thanks for sharing!
08-24-2014 12:24 PM
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Hallcity Offline
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RE: Phil Steele - Home Field Advantages 2014
(08-24-2014 10:11 AM)orangefan Wrote:  http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/AUG...ust23.html

All 128 FBS schools ranked, with 8 schools tied for first with a 5.5 point advantage and Georgia State in last with 1.75 point advantage.

ACC Members:
9. Va. Tech 5.25
13. Clemson 5.0
13. FSU 5.0
31. UNC 4.5
36. Ga. Tech 4.25
48. NC St. 4.0
48. Pitt 4.0
58. BC 3.75
58. Miami 3.75
58. Syracuse 3.75
69. Louisville 3.5
82. Duke 3.25
82. Wake 3.25
82. Virginia 3.25

And, of course:
21. ND 4.75

Below are his criteria, most of which seem to me to be pretty worthless in determining home field advantage. I think the only one that's really relevant is record against the spread and even that one may not matter much.

The first category is the stadium capacity. ...

The second category is actual attendance reported by the school in 2013. ...

The third category is % of capacity. ...

The next category is last years straight up win/loss record for each team at home. ...

The fifth category is the last 3 years straight up records at home. ...

The next category is the last 5 years records at home. ...

The easiest way to determine if a team played above or below expectations is to look at their records against the Las Vegas spread.

I then factor in the 9 categories from the 2012 and 2011 seasons, which gives me 27 categories for the computer to factor in and I have them appropriately weighted. ...

The final category is my own personal grade.
08-24-2014 01:59 PM
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Hokie Mark Online
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RE: Phil Steele - Home Field Advantages 2014
Quantifying home field advantage is so difficult that many computer models (such as J. Howell's) simply use the same value for all teams (in Howell's case, he uses 3.9 points).
08-24-2014 02:12 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Phil Steele - Home Field Advantages 2014
(08-24-2014 10:11 AM)orangefan Wrote:  http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/AUG...ust23.html

All 128 FBS schools ranked, with 8 schools tied for first with a 5.5 point advantage and Georgia State in last with 1.75 point advantage.

ACC Members:
9. Va. Tech 5.25
13. Clemson 5.0
13. FSU 5.0
31. UNC 4.5
36. Ga. Tech 4.25
48. NC St. 4.0
48. Pitt 4.0
58. BC 3.75
58. Miami 3.75
58. Syracuse 3.75
69. Louisville 3.5
82. Duke 3.25
82. Wake 3.25
82. Virginia 3.25

And, of course:
21. ND 4.75

Shouldn't you multiply #21 by 5/8 for ACC games?
08-24-2014 03:19 PM
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Hokie Mark Online
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RE: Phil Steele - Home Field Advantages 2014
(08-24-2014 03:19 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(08-24-2014 10:11 AM)orangefan Wrote:  http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/AUG...ust23.html

All 128 FBS schools ranked, with 8 schools tied for first with a 5.5 point advantage and Georgia State in last with 1.75 point advantage.

ACC Members:
9. Va. Tech 5.25
13. Clemson 5.0
13. FSU 5.0
31. UNC 4.5
36. Ga. Tech 4.25
48. NC St. 4.0
48. Pitt 4.0
58. BC 3.75
58. Miami 3.75
58. Syracuse 3.75
69. Louisville 3.5
82. Duke 3.25
82. Wake 3.25
82. Virginia 3.25

And, of course:
21. ND 4.75

Shouldn't you multiply #21 by 5/8 for ACC games?

I think they agree to take the remaining 3/8ths and apply it to home games vs. Michigan, Purdue, Stanford and Northwestern.
08-24-2014 04:25 PM
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