Overall 10-2, MAC 8-0

NIU 49 Presbyterian 10
Northwestern 31 NIU 27
NIU 35 UNLV 31
Arkansas 31 NIU 28
NIU 35 Kent St 21
NIU 41 CMU 21
NIU 42 Miami 10
NIU 47 EMU 21
NIU 37 Ball St 34
NIU 37 Toledo 31
NIU 37 Ohio 27
NIU 41 WMU 20


5 games of NIU + 40 points!

If you click the simulate season option on the site , it gives NIU a total of 8.96 wins for the year which I guess makes sense given how many of the predictions are close.

To be honest the scores and close games look pretty darn correct. Not sayin it's going to be 10-2 but I don't see a huge variance from the results/scores he's putting out there.

(08-23-2014 06:54 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  To be honest the scores and close games look pretty darn correct. Not sayin it's going to be 10-2 but I don't see a huge variance from the results/scores he's putting out there.

There is an option to simulate a head to head matchup on neutral field and it comes out with:

BGSU 30
NIU 28

If we lose by that much to Northwestern and Arkansas i will be disappointed. We need not go back to the days of moral victories.

(08-23-2014 07:07 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  If we lose by that much to Northwestern and Arkansas i will be disappointed. We need not go back to the days of moral victories.

Normally I would agree, but I think the expectations have to be tempered somewhat by breaking in a new QB and playing 3 tough road games in back to back to back weeks. Some have NU has Big 10 title darkhorse contenders and many have Arkansas as the surprise team in the SEC this year.

(08-23-2014 07:14 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 07:07 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  If we lose by that much to Northwestern and Arkansas i will be disappointed. We need not go back to the days of moral victories.

Normally I would agree, but I think the expectations have to be tempered somewhat by breaking in a new QB and playing 3 tough road games in back to back to back weeks. Some have NU has Big 10 title darkhorse contenders and many have Arkansas as the surprise team in the SEC this year.

Who has northwestern as a darkhorse? Especially with losing mark and top WR.

I think right now they are the 5th best team in their DIVISION. With the way Iowas and wisconsin schedules are lined up, one of those two should win that division with ease, unless Nebraska or Minnesota get upsets.

I'll take the under that the least we'll score in a game during the regular season is 27 pts.

(08-23-2014 09:42 PM)Field Turf Wrote:  I'll take the under that the least we'll score in a game during the regular season is 27 pts.

More than likely a safe bet, even the Orange Bowl team had 2 instances of scoring under 27, vs Iowa and vs FSU.

(08-23-2014 07:14 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 07:07 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  If we lose by that much to Northwestern and Arkansas i will be disappointed. We need not go back to the days of moral victories.

Normally I would agree, but I think the expectations have to be tempered somewhat by breaking in a new QB and playing 3 tough road games in back to back to back weeks. Some have NU has Big 10 title darkhorse contenders and many have Arkansas as the surprise team in the SEC this year.

Arkansas will NOT be a surprise team in the SEC....they're a bottom feeder.. You can book it!!

(08-23-2014 10:21 PM)bigdhuskie Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 07:14 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 07:07 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  If we lose by that much to Northwestern and Arkansas i will be disappointed. We need not go back to the days of moral victories.

Normally I would agree, but I think the expectations have to be tempered somewhat by breaking in a new QB and playing 3 tough road games in back to back to back weeks. Some have NU has Big 10 title darkhorse contenders and many have Arkansas as the surprise team in the SEC this year.

Arkansas will NOT be a surprise team in the SEC....they're a bottom feeder.. You can book it!!

Where are you getting your sources from MD, because you're acting like the general consensus is these teams are highly thought of.

I haven't seen one person pick arkansas to go bowling or pick northwestern to win the big ten or even be in the top 2 of the west.

Please show some sources or stop saying many. You're making yourself look bad.

(08-23-2014 10:24 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 10:21 PM)bigdhuskie Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 07:14 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 07:07 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  If we lose by that much to Northwestern and Arkansas i will be disappointed. We need not go back to the days of moral victories.

Normally I would agree, but I think the expectations have to be tempered somewhat by breaking in a new QB and playing 3 tough road games in back to back to back weeks. Some have NU has Big 10 title darkhorse contenders and many have Arkansas as the surprise team in the SEC this year.

Arkansas will NOT be a surprise team in the SEC....they're a bottom feeder.. You can book it!!

Where are you getting your sources from MD, because you're acting like the general consensus is these teams are highly thought of.

I haven't seen one person pick arkansas to go bowling or pick northwestern to win the big ten or even be in the top 2 of the west.

Please show some sources or stop saying many. You're making yourself look bad.

A lot of the time MD is crazy, but he is right sometimes (BCS Bowl appearance, Iowa weather). I've seen people consider Northwestern a Dark Horse.

" 17 returning starters, including 10 three-year starters that keyed that 10-3 team in 2012. They are one of the most experienced teams in the nation, and they open with four of five games at home. "

(08-23-2014 11:40 PM)Enaiu Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 10:24 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 10:21 PM)bigdhuskie Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 07:14 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 07:07 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  If we lose by that much to Northwestern and Arkansas i will be disappointed. We need not go back to the days of moral victories.

Normally I would agree, but I think the expectations have to be tempered somewhat by breaking in a new QB and playing 3 tough road games in back to back to back weeks. Some have NU has Big 10 title darkhorse contenders and many have Arkansas as the surprise team in the SEC this year.

Arkansas will NOT be a surprise team in the SEC....they're a bottom feeder.. You can book it!!

Where are you getting your sources from MD, because you're acting like the general consensus is these teams are highly thought of.

I haven't seen one person pick arkansas to go bowling or pick northwestern to win the big ten or even be in the top 2 of the west.

Please show some sources or stop saying many. You're making yourself look bad.

A lot of the time MD is crazy, but he is right sometimes (BCS Bowl appearance, Iowa weather). I've seen people consider Northwestern a Dark Horse.

" 17 returning starters, including 10 three-year starters that keyed that 10-3 team in 2012. They are one of the most experienced teams in the nation, and they open with four of five games at home. "

I'm not saying he hasn't been right, because BCS and stuff was spot on.

But all the traditional media sources besides Teddy Greenstein have said NW will be better, but not a darkhorse. Everyone has been saying they should go bowling, but they are unlikely to win the West. Iowa and Wisconsin seem to be the picks by most people.

So I commend you for finding a source, that I've never heard off. It says someone is picking them. But he's using words like many, making it sound like they're the hit team. Which really isn't the case. Same thing for Arkansas. The highest pick I've seen on them from multiple sec reporters and national reporters is 5 wins. Hardly the "surprise" team by "many"

It's his phrasing that makes him sound coockoo. If he was saying like hey arkansas could be solid and here's why or NW could bounce back if they can play Iowa and Wisconsin tight. But he's acting like those are LEGIT teams and NIU should be lucky to share the field with them (exaggerating)

(08-23-2014 11:52 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 11:40 PM)Enaiu Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 10:24 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 10:21 PM)bigdhuskie Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 07:14 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Normally I would agree, but I think the expectations have to be tempered somewhat by breaking in a new QB and playing 3 tough road games in back to back to back weeks. Some have NU has Big 10 title darkhorse contenders and many have Arkansas as the surprise team in the SEC this year.

Arkansas will NOT be a surprise team in the SEC....they're a bottom feeder.. You can book it!!

Where are you getting your sources from MD, because you're acting like the general consensus is these teams are highly thought of.

I haven't seen one person pick arkansas to go bowling or pick northwestern to win the big ten or even be in the top 2 of the west.

Please show some sources or stop saying many. You're making yourself look bad.

A lot of the time MD is crazy, but he is right sometimes (BCS Bowl appearance, Iowa weather). I've seen people consider Northwestern a Dark Horse.

" 17 returning starters, including 10 three-year starters that keyed that 10-3 team in 2012. They are one of the most experienced teams in the nation, and they open with four of five games at home. "

I'm not saying he hasn't been right, because BCS and stuff was spot on.

But all the traditional media sources besides Teddy Greenstein have said NW will be better, but not a darkhorse. Everyone has been saying they should go bowling, but they are unlikely to win the West. Iowa and Wisconsin seem to be the picks by most people.

So I commend you for finding a source, that I've never heard off. It says someone is picking them. But he's using words like many, making it sound like they're the hit team. Which really isn't the case. Same thing for Arkansas. The highest pick I've seen on them from multiple sec reporters and national reporters is 5 wins. Hardly the "surprise" team by "many"

It's his phrasing that makes him sound coockoo. If he was saying like hey arkansas could be solid and here's why or NW could bounce back if they can play Iowa and Wisconsin tight. But he's acting like those are LEGIT teams and NIU should be lucky to share the field with them (exaggerating)

Yeah, it's definitely not a popular opinion, but it does at least exist. And I totally agree, it's more so how he words things than anything.

(08-23-2014 06:51 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Overall 10-2, MAC 8-0

NIU 49 Presbyterian 10
Northwestern 31 NIU 27
NIU 35 UNLV 31
Arkansas 31 NIU 28
NIU 35 Kent St 21
NIU 41 CMU 21
NIU 42 Miami 10
NIU 47 EMU 21
NIU 37 Ball St 34
NIU 37 Toledo 31
NIU 37 Ohio 27
NIU 41 WMU 20

Wow. After losing two of the best players, a new QB -- that's an overly-hopeful-positive position. Not to say one should give NIU the benefit of the doubt with an in-program coach called up while NIU has maintained being one of the Top teams in the MAC & mid-majors for years in a row.

But IMO, one's going to see a dip. Now, they don't have a tough MAC schedule, I'll give him that. But to go undefeated, while squeaking by UNLV (who CMU should have beat last year @UNLV), and getting beat by BOTH NW & Arkansas in barn-burners?

I'd say this would be my pre-season expectations, game by game (not overall for record):

NIU 44 Presbyterian 13
NIU 24 @Northwestern 34
NIU 34 @UNLV 27
NIU 27 @Arkansas 30
NIU 35 Kent St 21
NIU 34 CMU 27
NIU 41 Miami 20
NIU 38 @EMU 24
NIU 31 @Ball St 28
NIU 24 Toledo 30
NIU 28 @Ohio 24
NIU 31 @WMU 20 (It's going to be COLD & snowy this fall/winter)

With that said, I'll also say that they'll very possibly blow a game against someone in conference (@BSU or @Ohio?) where they should win.

BEST: 10-2, 7-1
OPTIMISTIC EXPECTATION: 9-3, 7-1
REALISTIC EXPECTATION: 8-4, 6-2 or 9-3, 6-2

IMO...

6-6: 5% Chance
7-5: 15% Chance
8-4: 50% Chance
9-3: 20% Chance
10-2: 10% Chance

I think we have a better chance of beating Arkansas than NW, but we do have a lot of questions. Wouldn't be surprised if we dropped a game or two in the MAC schedule that we don't expect. I still think we end up in the MAC title game though.

Here's Espns Football. Power Index, it does a bunch of projections and gives your percentile of win per game factoring in home/road etc.

NIU at about 9-3, they're only not picked to win in two games, NW and Ark. They are about 33% chance to beat Ark and 40% vs NW.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team...&year=2014

Big Ten is a joke outside of Mich St and Ohio St.... We beat Northwestern by at least 3..

Arkansas and MAC Championship game are the only ones that worry me...

I can see a possible 10-2, but I think we drop a game to a MAC team and win one of our 2 OOC BCS games.

(08-25-2014 01:17 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

(08-23-2014 06:51 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Overall 10-2, MAC 8-0

NIU 49 Presbyterian 10
Northwestern 31 NIU 27
NIU 35 UNLV 31
Arkansas 31 NIU 28
NIU 35 Kent St 21
NIU 41 CMU 21
NIU 42 Miami 10
NIU 47 EMU 21
NIU 37 Ball St 34
NIU 37 Toledo 31
NIU 37 Ohio 27
NIU 41 WMU 20

Wow. After losing two of the best players, a new QB -- that's an overly-hopeful-positive position. Not to say one should give NIU the benefit of the doubt with an in-program coach called up while NIU has maintained being one of the Top teams in the MAC & mid-majors for years in a row.

But IMO, one's going to see a dip. Now, they don't have a tough MAC schedule, I'll give him that. But to go undefeated, while squeaking by UNLV (who CMU should have beat last year @UNLV), and getting beat by BOTH NW & Arkansas in barn-burners?

I'd say this would be my pre-season expectations, game by game (not overall for record):

NIU 44 Presbyterian 13
NIU 24 @Northwestern 34
NIU 34 @UNLV 27
NIU 27 @Arkansas 30
NIU 35 Kent St 21
NIU 34 CMU 27
NIU 41 Miami 20
NIU 38 @EMU 24
NIU 31 @Ball St 28
NIU 24 Toledo 30
NIU 28 @Ohio 24
NIU 31 @WMU 20 (It's going to be COLD & snowy this fall/winter)

With that said, I'll also say that they'll very possibly blow a game against someone in conference (@BSU or @Ohio?) where they should win.

BEST: 10-2, 7-1
OPTIMISTIC EXPECTATION: 9-3, 7-1
REALISTIC EXPECTATION: 8-4, 6-2 or 9-3, 6-2

IMO...

6-6: 5% Chance
7-5: 15% Chance
8-4: 50% Chance
9-3: 20% Chance
10-2: 10% Chance

You really think WMU is coming within 11 points of NIU? That's adorable.