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There's one very important distinction in the CFN preseason rankings: these are based on how good the teams are going into the season and NOT how they're going to finish. Some teams have easier schedules than others, some get tougher road games and some will need a little bit of time to jell, meaning they might be better than their final record indicates. Going into the year, these are how good the teams appear to be from No. 1 through 128.
128. New Mexico State
Prediction: 0-12
3 Best Players: 1) OG Isaiah Folasa-Lutui, Jr., 2) QB Tyler Rogers, Jr., 3) LB Rodney Butler, Soph.
Relative Strengths: 1) Receiver, 2) Quarterback, 3) O Line
Spotlight Units: 1) D Line, 2) Linebacker, 3) Secondary
The season will be a success if … the Aggies win four games. It’s not exactly setting the bar high, but if they can beat Cal Poly, Georgia State and Idaho, they’re going to be close. It’s going to take a few upsets, but being two wins better than last season would be great. With such a young, inexperienced team, four victories would be nice, and anything more might be miraculous.
127. Georgia State
Prediction: 2-10
3 Best Players: 1) LB Joseph Peterson, Jr., 2) WR Robert Davis, Soph., 3) CB Marcus Caffey, Jr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Quarterback, 2) Linebacker, 3) Special Teams
Spotlight Units: 1) D Line, 2) O Line, 3) Receiver
The season will be a success if … Georgia State wins three games. A win over Abilene Christian is a must, and beating a weak New Mexico State at home would be a huge boost just as the season is taking off. And then it would do wonders to come up with one more win along the way, but, considering the Panthers should be underdogs the rest of the way, it’ll have to take a special effort to get it. After the disasters of the last two years, three wins would be great, anything more would be sensational.
126. Massachusetts
Prediction: 0-12
3 Best Players: 1) LB Stanley Andre, Sr., 2) CB Trey Dudley-Giles, Jr., 3) CB Randall Jette, Jr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Receiver, 2) Secondary, 3) Coaching
Spotlight Units: 1) O Line, 2) D Line, 3) Linebacker
The season will be a success if … UMass wins three games and is more competitive overall. When you win two games in two years, the bar isn’t set all that high. It’s still going to be tough to challenge the better MAC teams, and forget about any of the non-conference games, but the Minutemen have a shot against Miami University, Eastern Michigan, and Akron. Head coach Mark Whipple has to provide hope that there are better days ahead in 2015 and beyond.
125. Idaho
Prediction: 1-11
3 Best Players: 1) DT QuayShawne Buckley, Sr., 2) WR Dezmon Epps, Sr., 3) P/K Austin Rehkow, Soph.
Relative Strengths: 1) D Line, 2) Special Teams, 3) Quarterback
Spotlight Units: 1) Secondary, 2) O Line, 3) Running Back
The season will be a success if … the Vandals win four games. Baby steps. Ohio, Arkansas State and San Diego State are the only three teams on the schedule who went to a bowl last season, and while that doesn’t mean Idaho will all of a sudden be able to get past Florida, it’s a manageable slate. There are enough winnable games to get to four wins, which would be as many as the program generated over the past three seasons.
124. Florida International
Prediction: 0-12
3 Best Players: 1) TE Jonnu Smith, Soph., 2) S Justin Halley, Sr., 3) CB Richard Leonard, Sr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Special Teams, 2) Linebacker, 3) Running Back
Spotlight Units: 1) O Line, 2) Secondary, 3) Quarterback
The season will be a success if … the product on the field is more competitive than it was a season ago. Forget the record. The Panthers might start 2-0 against Bethune-Cookman and Wagner, and then not win again all season. The record is kind of irrelevant for a school that went 1-11 last year. After losing games by an average of 27 points in 2013, it’ll count as progress if FIU can reduce that margin this fall … regardless of what the final mark says.
123. Eastern Michigan
Prediction: 2-10
3 Best Players: 1) TE Tyreese Russell, Sr., 2) RB Bronson Hill, Sr., 3) OT Lincoln Hansen, Sr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Quarterback, 2) O Line, 3) Receiver
Spotlight Units: 1) Linebacker, 2) Special teams, 3) D Line
The season will be a success if … the Eagles win four games. That might not sound like a lofty goal, but the program has broken the three-win mark just once since 2007 and twice since 2005. A two win improvement would be a big step forward in Creighton's first season, and with winnable games against Morgan State, Akron, UMass and Western Michigan on the slate, with an upset here or there, a decent season is possible. However, realistically, the goal is to be better overall. This is a stepping-stone season - patience is a must for a program desperate for any success.
122. Southern Miss
Prediction: 3-9
3 Best Players: 1) LB Alan Howze, Sr., 2) S Jacorius Cotton, Sr., 3) DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Sr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Linebacker, 2) Secondary, 3) D Line
Spotlight Units: 1) O Line, 2) Special Teams, 3) Receiver
The season will be a success if … the Golden Eagles are a dangerous Conference USA team in November. Wins matter, of course, but not so much for a school that boasts just a single victory over UAB in the last two years. These days, growth will be measured as much by competitiveness as anything else. If Southern Miss amasses a head of steam that it can use as a launching point for 2015, this season will be a success. And if it comes in the form of a 3-9 mark, so be it.
121. Appalachian State
Prediction: 4-8
3 Best Players: 1) RB Marcus Cox, Soph., 2) OT Kendall Lamm, Sr., 3) LB John Law, Soph.
Relative Strengths: 1) Quarterback, 2) O Line, 3) Running Back
Spotlight Units: 1) D Line, 2) Receiver, 3) Defensive Back
The season will be a success if … the Mountaineers flirt with a winning record. 1981 and 1982. That was the last time the program suffered back-to-back losing seasons. Before that? 1956 and 1957. It would be an easy excuse to point to the better competition as a reason for a second straight dud year, but for a program that’s known nothing but tremendous success for so long, two losing seasons in two years under Scott Satterfield would be a problem. ASU can’t go to a bowl, but it can win the Sun Belt title. Just getting to seven wins would be good enough.
120. Old Dominion
Prediction: 3-9
3 Best Players: 1) QB Taylor Heinicke, Sr., 2) WR Larry Pinkard, Sr., 3) WR Antonio Vaughan, Sr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Quarterback, 2) Receiver, 3) O Line
Spotlight Units: 1) Special Teams, 2) Linebacker, 3) D Line
The season will be a success if … the Monarchs finish .500 or above for the sixth year in a row. Old Dominion wants to follow the trajectory of UTSA, which went 7-5 in its Conference USA debut. The Monarchs are in better shape than the 2013 Roadrunners, thanks to the Taylor Heinicke factor on offense. Now, ODU won’t beat NC State or Vanderbilt. But it’ll hang with most of its new league brethren. Unfortunately, the Monarchs can only bowl this season if there aren’t enough eligible teams to fill every opening.
119. Western Michigan
Prediction: 3-9
3 Best Players: 1) WR Corey Davis, Soph., 2) S Justin Currie, Sr., 3) CB Donald Celiscar, Sr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Secondary, 2) Quarterback, 3) O Line
Spotlight Units: 1) Running Back, 2) D Line, 3) Linebacker
The season will be a success if … the Broncos improve as the season goes on. They have talent and they have a world of upside to be better in a big hurry. They also have a reasonable schedule with winnable games against Idaho, Murray State, Miami University and Eastern Michigan. If WMU can’t win those four, something’s wrong. They take those and come up with a win over an Ohio at home or Central Michigan on the road, and the year will be considered a huge step forward.
118. UTEP
Prediction: 3-9
3 Best Players: 1) QB Jameill Showers, Sr., 2) RB Aaron Jones, Soph., 3) RB Nathan Jeffery, Sr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Running Back, 2) Quarterback, 3) Receiver
Spotlight Units: 1) Linebacker, 2) D Line, 3) Secondary
The season will be a success if … UTEP doubles its win total to four. Don’t expect any miracles in 2014. But it is fair to anticipate progress in Sean Kugler’s second season. The Miners won’t hang with Texas Tech on Sept. 6 or Kansas State three weeks later, leaving 10 games that could be winnable. If they can capture four of those toss-ups, it’ll serve as a sign that the staff is making modest gains with a mediocre roster of talent.
117. UAB
Prediction: 3-9
3 Best Players: 1) WR Jamarcus Nelson, Sr., 2) RB Jordan Howard, Soph., 3) LB Jake Ganus, Jr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Receiver, 2) Running Back, 3) Special Teams
Spotlight Units: 1) Quarterback, 2) D Line, 3) Secondary
The season will be a success if … the Blazers double their win total to four, while generally playing at a more competitive level. Bowling for the first time since 2004 is a longshot. Realistically, UAB is building toward a postseason run … in 2015. For now, progress will be achieved if the team can find four wins on the schedule, as it assimilates to the expectations and the new systems on both sides of the ball. Conference USA isn’t so scary that this team can’t be in the hunt before too long.
116. Georgia Southern
Prediction: 6-6
3 Best Players: 1) QB Kevin Ellison, Soph., 2) C Manrey Saint-Amour, Sr., 3) LB Edwin Jackson, Sr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Running Back, 2) O Line, 3) Quarterback
Spotlight Units: 1) Receiver, 2) D Line, 3) Linebacker
The season will be a success if … the Eagles flirt with an eight-win season. They’re not eligible for a bowl game until 2015, but they can win the Sun Belt title this year – the right mix could be there to make it interesting. As long as they survive the first month with three road games in the four would weeks, and as long as they can handle two five-day turnarounds playing both Appalachian State and Troy on Thursday nights, they could be in for a great year. Savannah State and Idaho have to be wins, and there’s no reason not to win two out three home games against ASU, Troy and ULM. Georgia State shouldn’t be a problem, and New Mexico State is a relative layup. That’s six wins before getting into the 50/50 games against South Alabama and Texas State.
115. Kent State
Prediction: 4-8
3 Best Players: 1) LB Matt Dellinger, Jr., 2) SS Jordan Italiano, Jr., 3) RB Trayion Durham, Sr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Receiver, 2) D Line, 3) Special Teams
Spotlight Units: 1) Running Back, 2) O Line, 3) Quarterback
The season will be a success if … the Golden Flashes get to six wins. They won’t catch every break and do everything right like they did in 2012, and they won’t struggled and sputter as much as they did in 2013. It’ll be more of a regression to the mean with winnable games against UMass, Army and Akron and a must-win road game at Miami University to match the four wins of last year. Haynes has to improve by two games – there have to be a few upsets thrown into the mix.
114.Miami University
Prediction: 2-10
3 Best Players: 1) QB Andrew Hendrix, Sr., 2) LB Kent Kern, Jr., 3) SS Brison Burris, Sr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Quarterback, 2) Receiver, 3) Secondary
Spotlight Units: 1) Running Back, 2) D Line, 3) Linebacker
The season will be a success if … the RedHawks win four games. After not doing anything right last year, and after blowout after blowout, the combination of a new coaching staff, all the returning experience, and a quarterback like Andrew Hendrix should be enough to get by Eastern Kentucky, UMass, and win at least two other games against teams like Western Michigan, Akron and Kent State.
113. WKU
Prediction: 4-8
3 Best Players: 1) CB Cam Thomas, Sr., 2) WR Willie McNeal, Sr., 3) OT Forrest Lamp, Soph.
Relative Strengths: 1) Running Back, 2) Quarterback, 3) Receiver
Spotlight Units: 1) Linebacker, 2) Special Teams, 3) O Line
The season will be a success if … the Hilltoppers earn their second bowl berth in school history. It’s going to be a season of challenges for Western Kentucky, from the new league and staff to the wholesale lineup changes. But Jeff Brohm is uniquely positioned to surprise in his first year as the head coach. He has a senior starter at quarterback, and his program has learned to thrive following three winning seasons in a row. And unlike the past few years, seven wins in the regular season ought to be good enough to land that coveted postseason invitation.
112. ULM
Prediction: 5-7
3 Best Players: 1) LB Hunter Kissinger, Jr., 2) QB Pete Thomas, Sr., 3) NT Gerrand Johnson, Jr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Quarterback, 2) O Line, 3) Special Teams
Spotlight Units: 1) Running Back, 2) Receiver, 3) Linebacker
The season will be a success if … the Warhawks win seven games. As last year showed, six wins isn’t going to get it done for a bowl game and isn’t going to move things forward. The offense didn’t rock last season and the team still got to six wins. With a better defense, and several winnable games mixed in with the forget-about-it dates with LSU and Texas A&M. If the Warhawks can take care of conference home games against Idaho, Troy, Texas State and Louisiana-Lafayette, they might get there with one upset and wins in two of three road dates at Appalachian State, New Mexico State and Georgia Southern.
111. Florida Atlantic
Prediction: 4-8
3 Best Players: 1) CB D’Joun Smith, Sr., 2) QB Jaquez Johnson, Jr., 3) LB Andrae Kirk, Sr.
Relative Strengths: 1) Quarterback, 2) Secondary, 3) Receiver
Spotlight Units: 1) Running Back, 2) D Line, 3) O Line
The season will be a success if … the Owls bowl. Florida Atlantic is slowly moving up the Conference USA pecking order. It can really make a statement in 2014 by nabbing one of the league’s automatic bowl berths. The road schedule is nasty, highlighted by trips to face Nebraska, Alabama and Marshall. However, the Owls will be competitive in every other game, making bowl-eligibility for the first time since 1998 a realistic pursuit.
