(08-13-2014 04:12 PM)Barney Wrote:  Notre Dame's offense may be very hard to handle I'm afraid. They've got a big, veteran OL to pound our undersized front 6, and then a superstar caliber QB to play-action pass and also run.

That's strange, because I heard that Golson has major problems with passing.

(08-13-2014 05:14 PM)baker-13 Wrote:  Because I needed a break from studying for comps, I decided to put Massey's probabilities into Python and write a Markov chain to calculate our most likely number of wins in the regular season. I simulated the season 1,000,000 times, and got the following results:

Wins: Chance
0: 0.000%
1: 0.0010%
2: 0.0254%
3: 0.2745%
4: 1.6478%
5: 6.5687%
6: 16.5866%
7: 27.1439%
8: 27.2376%
9: 15.5535%
10: 4.4689%
11: 0.4726%
12: 0.0195%

Based on these and the Massey probabilities, we look (based on his initial data) like a 7- or 8-win team, most likely hinging on the UTSA game.

If someone else wants to check my work, the base code is here To produce 1,000,000 sims, I ran it on my desktop; this version produces numbers based on 10,000 sims, so the numbers it produces will likely be a bit different.

ETA: Doing a quick math check with Excel, I find that my code is overestimating the chance of 12 wins by about 0.0026% (0.0195% vs. 0.0169%) compared to the straight probabilities. So, not perfect, but quite close.

If people are interested, I can update as the season goes on (assuming Massey updates his probabilities for the rest of the slate as the season progresses).

With just 2^12 = 4096 potential outcomes, direct calculation of the probabilities is probably more efficient than simulation.

Directly calculating:
#Wins Probability
0 0.0000%
1 0.0015%
2 0.0272%
3 0.2714%
4 1.6622%
5 6.5205%
6 16.5975%
7 27.0879%
8 27.2553%
9 15.6427%
10 4.4365%
11 0.4804%
12 0.0169%

Which, for all intents and purposes, is identical to what you got.

Spreadsheet (zipped):
  MasseyWinProb.zip (Size: 843.3 KB / Downloads: 4)

Gotta like heading into the season with a 75% chance of 7+ wins.

(08-13-2014 04:18 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I'm more concerned with our 52% rating against UNT.

Wasn't UNT incredibly senior-stacked last season? I thought they were supposed to take a significant step backwards this season.

(08-13-2014 09:13 PM)Wiessman Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 04:12 PM)Barney Wrote:  Notre Dame's offense may be very hard to handle I'm afraid. They've got a big, veteran OL to pound our undersized front 6, and then a superstar caliber QB to play-action pass and also run.

That's strange, because I heard that Golson has major problems with passing.

You and Walt are making me feel much, much better about this game.

(08-13-2014 10:21 PM)JOwl Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 05:14 PM)baker-13 Wrote:  Because I needed a break from studying for comps, I decided to put Massey's probabilities into Python and write a Markov chain to calculate our most likely number of wins in the regular season. I simulated the season 1,000,000 times, and got the following results:

Wins: Chance
0: 0.000%
1: 0.0010%
2: 0.0254%
3: 0.2745%
4: 1.6478%
5: 6.5687%
6: 16.5866%
7: 27.1439%
8: 27.2376%
9: 15.5535%
10: 4.4689%
11: 0.4726%
12: 0.0195%

Based on these and the Massey probabilities, we look (based on his initial data) like a 7- or 8-win team, most likely hinging on the UTSA game.

If someone else wants to check my work, the base code is here To produce 1,000,000 sims, I ran it on my desktop; this version produces numbers based on 10,000 sims, so the numbers it produces will likely be a bit different.

ETA: Doing a quick math check with Excel, I find that my code is overestimating the chance of 12 wins by about 0.0026% (0.0195% vs. 0.0169%) compared to the straight probabilities. So, not perfect, but quite close.

If people are interested, I can update as the season goes on (assuming Massey updates his probabilities for the rest of the slate as the season progresses).

With just 2^12 = 4096 potential outcomes, direct calculation of the probabilities is probably more efficient than simulation.

Directly calculating:
#Wins Probability
0 0.0000%
1 0.0015%
2 0.0272%
3 0.2714%
4 1.6622%
5 6.5205%
6 16.5975%
7 27.0879%
8 27.2553%
9 15.6427%
10 4.4365%
11 0.4804%
12 0.0169%

Which, for all intents and purposes, is identical to what you got.

Spreadsheet (zipped):

Gotta like heading into the season with a 75% chance of 7+ wins.

I'm guessing this ain't the aggie message board...

(08-13-2014 10:21 PM)JOwl Wrote:  ]

With just 2^12 = 4096 potential outcomes, direct calculation of the probabilities is probably more efficient than simulation.

Computationally and mathematically true, but...
<ChrisBerman>That's why they play the games</ChrisBerman>
And that's why we simulate them.
:)

(08-13-2014 04:12 PM)Barney Wrote:  Notre Dame's offense may be very hard to handle I'm afraid. They've got a big, veteran OL to pound our undersized front 6, and then a superstar caliber QB to play-action pass and also run.
A&M may be more athletic than ND overall, but I don't think they'll be as tough to hang with.

Disagree with that. I think A&M will be harder.

a) People. 7 of it starters drafted (not to mention FA signings). 4 on D and 3 on O. That has to be replaced. Their QB has not taken a game snap in about 18-months

b) Last years team. They did not exactly dominate Rutgers in their Bowl Game (remember Rutgers needed OT to beat a bad SMU team)...so while ND clearly has more talent this is not the 1988 game all over again.

c) Schemes. New schemes on both side of bowl being used in first game; likely to be miscues by them. We will get more unforced errors than if we played them in game 2 or beyond. Do expect the new up-tempo offense with ND's new D schemes/confusion to create some busts in coverage and assignments for Rice big plays.

d) ND is always overrated as the national following drives up their stock price. Been that way forever. Brand > Team

e) Time to put in gameplan. I expect us to stack the box and force Golson to throw to beat us. He is not a good passer. We all know that. I expect ND O to watch the Miss St. and copy their gameplan. We have had time to prepare on that (esp w/ Safety coverage issues).

f) Unlike a game in mid-season, we are healthy. ND has more depth. They can reload but at 1-deep, tougher for us.

I think a 31-21 score is probable and we will move the ball better than most expect against their new faces and schemes on D. Don't see a 55-10 (or something like that outcome). I believe Rice has graduated from that era of nasty blow-outs. And if they are super sloppy turning ball over and we get some mojo our way...Jim Carey would be right..there is a chance. It is not a 'lock' game for ND.

(08-15-2014 08:29 AM)owl40 Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 04:12 PM)Barney Wrote:  Notre Dame's offense may be very hard to handle I'm afraid. They've got a big, veteran OL to pound our undersized front 6, and then a superstar caliber QB to play-action pass and also run.
A&M may be more athletic than ND overall, but I don't think they'll be as tough to hang with.

Disagree with that. I think A&M will be harder.

a) People. 7 of it starters drafted (not to mention FA signings). 4 on D and 3 on O. That has to be replaced. Their QB has not taken a game snap in about 18-months

b) Last years team. They did not exactly dominate Rutgers in their Bowl Game (remember Rutgers needed OT to beat a bad SMU team)...so while ND clearly has more talent this is not the 1988 game all over again.

c) Schemes. New schemes on both side of bowl being used in first game; likely to be miscues by them. We will get more unforced errors than if we played them in game 2 or beyond. Do expect the new up-tempo offense with ND's new D schemes/confusion to create some busts in coverage and assignments for Rice big plays.

d) ND is always overrated as the national following drives up their stock price. Been that way forever. Brand > Team

e) Time to put in gameplan. I expect us to stack the box and force Golson to throw to beat us. He is not a good passer. We all know that. I expect ND O to watch the Miss St. and copy their gameplan. We have had time to prepare on that (esp w/ Safety coverage issues).

f) Unlike a game in mid-season, we are healthy. ND has more depth. They can reload but at 1-deep, tougher for us.

I think a 31-21 score is probable and we will move the ball better than most expect against their new faces and schemes on D. Don't see a 55-10 (or something like that outcome). I believe Rice has graduated from that era of nasty blow-outs. And if they are super sloppy turning ball over and we get some mojo our way...Jim Carey would be right..there is a chance. It is not a 'lock' game for ND.

I tend to agree with this assessment/prediction. ND is grossly overrated, particularly on offense. My two concerns are:

1. Will our front 6 on defense be able to stop the Irish running game, as we will be significantly overmatched on the line.

2. Will Bailiff move away from past history and allow the offense to use it's entire playbook in OOC games. If he does, I fully expect us to move the ball and put points on the board. We may be outmanned on the lines, but we have way too many weapons at running back and in the receiving corps for the Irish to negate all of them.

(08-15-2014 08:29 AM)owl40 Wrote:  Don't see a 55-10 (or something like that outcome). I believe Rice has graduated from that era of nasty blow-outs.

I can't tell you how much I hope you are right, but tell me exactly what has happened since Dec. 31, 2013 in Memphis (8 months ago...44-7) that says "Rice has graduated from the era of nasty blow-outs"?

Again, I hope you are correct, but until the Owls prove they have graduated from that era, I don't know that we should start sounding like ESU fans.

Beating ND would be a great start!

(08-14-2014 08:48 PM)Barney Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 09:13 PM)Wiessman Wrote:  

(08-13-2014 04:12 PM)Barney Wrote:  Notre Dame's offense may be very hard to handle I'm afraid. They've got a big, veteran OL to pound our undersized front 6, and then a superstar caliber QB to play-action pass and also run.

That's strange, because I heard that Golson has major problems with passing.

You and Walt are making me feel much, much better about this game.

http://www.foxsports.com/college-footbal...off-081414

Payne College Football Power Ratings

Predicted Regular Season Record (Boolean Model) 8 - 4 (L's to ND, A&M, UNT, and Marshall)
Predicted Regular Season Record (Probability Model) 7.4 - 4.6
Probability of Undefeated Season 0.01969%

http://knology.net/~brucepayne/teams/RICE.htm