Well, the SEC is out of distractions with the elimination of Alabama from the CFP. Basketball season has not started conference play, and this dead time is as good as any to look at the potential realignment prospects from the ACC.

I believe we are looking at 3 potentialities given the current ACC situation.

(1) The ACC decides there is too much risk in going to the mat legally with FSU and they settle.

(2) The ACC refuses to settle and FSU buys their way out and becomes a free agent.

(3) FSU gets out, Clemson follows, and the loss of 24.7% of the ACC's total value results in the defection of more schools.

With option #1 a negotiated settlement might include a continued relationship with ESPN. ESPN could facilitate their move to the SEC, handling damages paid to an annual amount withheld from the FSU distribution from the SEC and paid to the ACC spread out over 10 years, possibly more.

Such a result would enable the ACC to backfill with USF or do nothing since they took in 3 which ESPN could eventually agree to pay pro rata. This approach would allow ESPN to seek 100% of the rights to Kansas as a travel partner. ESPN earns more from FSU in the SEC and the SEC earns more in basketball with the Jayhawks. Things settle in quietly and the Big 10 stays at bay.

With option #2 FSU could join the Big 10 or the SEC. It is unlikely that another ACC school would pay that much to leave. If FSU heads to the Big 10 perhaps they pick up Stanford or Kansas and move to 22 schools. If FSU heads to the SEC perhaps the travel partner to 18 is Kansas. Either way things stop for a bit.

With option #3 a Jailbreak occurs. If Clemson and FSU want to travel together it will be to the SEC. The SEC will also want a presence in North Carolina and Virginia. To get it they will take either Duke or N.C. State with a Virginia school. If UNC wants to move with Duke then look for UVa to be the other school. If UNC moves with N.C. State then the other school could be either Virginia school, with Tech being actually the valuable sports brand. If the SEC lands FSU they will see not need in another Florida school. They will be covered with top brands in Virginia (where it is virtually a tie between UVa and Va Tech) and in North Carolina. Could the SEC pick up Miami? Sure. It's a large state and the games between the three are huge TV draws. If a 6th is needed to round things out Miami is the best bet.

Those moves also keep the Big 10 at Bay. They could look at Georgia Tech but the money isn't there. If they picked up Virginia they might think about Atlanta. If they picked up Virginia and Duke I think Georgia Tech would get that shot especially if they could land Miami as well.

The SEC won't be stopping at 21, but the Big 10 would likely stop 24. Where does the SEC look to get to acquire more markets? Kansas, Colorado, and an Arizona school would be the direction ESPN would encourage. Why? To spread the SEC's time zone reach. That's one national brand in hoops, two if the Arizona schools is Arizona and not State, and a population reach of 16.5 million people. Adding Florida state delivers roughly 77% of the Florida college sports market in a state of 22 million. Adding North Carolina and Virginia adds 20 million. Clemson is a solid brand with a great support base and travel commitment but only brings 2.5 million more viewers (the other half of South Carolina).

The strongest additions the SEC could make if things hit jailbreak status in the ACC would be to lock down Virginia, UNC, and Duke and to add FSU and Clemson. The first three virtually lock the Big 10 out, and the last two are the best football brands remaining in the Southeast outside of the SEC. You get academic props from the first three and blueblood hoops programs. If N.C. State or Virginia Tech are required to land that trio I say do it. Taking two marginal schools to keep a monopoly in the Deep South is worth it. If the Big 10 takes Georgia Tech and Miami to go with Notre Dame should they land them then fine. We haven't lost control of anything, or lost ad revenue. Besides for that move to even be feasible Notre Dame would have to want to affiliate completely with the Big 10. Why not just offer them the same kind of partial deal they already have with the ACC? They can sign a partial with the Big 10 as well and all parties are appeased if not content. If the SEC lands 7 ACC schools to keep the Big 10 out of the Deep South and N.C. State and Virginia Tech preserve rivalries for the incoming schools then we will need 1 more, Kansas. Kansas doesn't complete the SEC but it completes the SEC's new Western Division when paired with Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

The SEC remains regional, and our regional boundaries extend to 3 new states with no long trips to Colorado or Arizona. Let the Big 10 acquire a foothold and then to compete marketwise we have to extend our borders into areas our fans will not like to go!

Of these options my preferred one is #1. Let ESPN/ACC/FSU settle. Take the Noles with ESPN providing ancillary and compelling financial considerations to do so, pick up Kansas and wait. That's less distress, more time to work things out if more moves are to come, it sets our Western boundary firmly, secures our market dominance in the state of Florida, and allows the ACC to remain our best buffer against the Big 12 until closer to the expiration of their current contract, which should come at a time when most of the paradigm changing demographic issues are known quantities instead of just feared ones.

I'll go ahead and argue now for 24 and for much the same reason I have historically.

1. It's a significant amount of content under one roof. I know the networks have undue influence, but I think single leagues going larger helps mitigate that simply due to the market share. I don't even think it's a matter of getting the biggest brands you can get. Add members that are relevant in their market and it makes a difference.

2. It tends to generate less travel overall even if you expand outside your region. Basically, it distributes distance over a larger number so most schools don't make long trips as often.

3. More unique match-ups are created and that can keep TV inventory fresh. You need the big brand vs brand games, yes. You also need the consistent rivalry games, sure. But people like watching games they don't get to see all the time as well. That's one reason bowl games and early season non-conference match-ups tend to get good ratings.

(01-04-2024 12:51 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I'll go ahead and argue now for 24 and for much the same reason I have historically.

1. It's a significant amount of content under one roof. I know the networks have undue influence, but I think single leagues going larger helps mitigate that simply due to the market share. I don't even think it's a matter of getting the biggest brands you can get. Add members that are relevant in their market and it makes a difference.

2. It tends to generate less travel overall even if you expand outside your region. Basically, it distributes distance over a larger number so most schools don't make long trips as often.

3. More unique match-ups are created and that can keep TV inventory fresh. You need the big brand vs brand games, yes. You also need the consistent rivalry games, sure. But people like watching games they don't get to see all the time as well. That's one reason bowl games and early season non-conference match-ups tend to get good ratings.

I, too, think the SEC should go to 24. If Florida St can wrangle free, then I'd like to see the SEC take: Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. That leaves 2 spots. For the final 2, my options would be: Duke, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Louisville, and Miami. All 5 have important rivalries with schools that would be in the SEC. There are a number of decisions you could make:
- Bring in all ACC rivals: Georgia Tech and Louisville
- Be the best basketball conference: Duke and Kansas
- Keep the B1G out of the South: Georgia Tech and Miami
- Increase the academic profile: Duke and either Georgia Tech or Miami

My choice would actually be Kansas and Miami. It keeps the B1G out of Florida, adds 1 historically great basketball school and 1 with a good up-and-coming basketball program, both AAU, and both bring rivalries with multiple schools in the SEC.

SEC
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, LSU, Miami, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Perhaps this post which I linked from the ACC Forum will assist this discussion:

https://csnbbs.com/thread-984096-post-19...id19397945

Look for Post #24

Based upon that data the most obvious move to 20 is this one:

Clemson and Florida State to secure the Deep South. North Carolina and Virginia to add the flagship AAU schools of two new markets delivering 20 million more viewers.

If the SEC and ESPN need to coerce this outcome, then adding Duke and N.C. State with Virginia Tech works fine. For #24 you choose between Kansas, Georgia Tech and Miami. Kansas has the highest valuation and it's not close.

(01-04-2024 01:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Perhaps this post which I linked from the ACC Forum will assist this discussion:

https://csnbbs.com/thread-984096-post-19...id19397945

Look for Post #24

Based upon that data the most obvious move to 20 is this one:

Clemson and Florida State to secure the Deep South. North Carolina and Virginia to add the flagship AAU schools of two new markets delivering 20 million more viewers.

If the SEC and ESPN need to coerce this outcome, then adding Duke and N.C. State with Virginia Tech works fine. For #24 you choose between Kansas, Georgia Tech and Miami. Kansas has the highest valuation and it's not close.

Those make sense. I struggle with Duke over Miami but I understand it. If/when basketball separates from the NCAA like football, the SEC would have the top 4 blue bloods under one roof. UCLA has the titles but did it all, nearly exclusively, under 1 coach which should not be considered a blue blood.