With autonomy coming...I think conferences and teams will be scrambling to align themselves where they can survive and in some cases prosper.

The G5 should work together at a big summit and find out how to do this with forethought and sanity. I could see 2-3 conferences working like hell to align with the P-5. The others might be better to align with the top FCS.

A few schools might be out of place: UTSA, TX St., Louisiana, LaTech, Marshall, Toledo, Ohio, etc...and might have to move to a new conference. I hope they can do this without these huge waiting periods and large fees.

CUSA is a tweener in this group...they could go either way.

(08-10-2014 11:08 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  With autonomy coming...I think conferences and teams will be scrambling to align themselves where they can survive and in some cases prosper.

The G5 should work together at a big summit and find out how to do this with forethought and sanity. I could see 2-3 conferences working like hell to align with the P-5. The others might be better to align with the top FCS.

A few schools might be out of place: UTSA, TX St., Louisiana, LaTech, Marshall, Toledo, Ohio, etc...and might have to move to a new conference. I hope they can do this without these huge waiting periods and large fees.

CUSA is a tweener in this group...they could go either way.

I don't think they will work together.

But I do agree G5 will re-align. With the 90s realignment, the aftershocks were felt all the way down into division II for years.

The MWC/AAC should work together...it is funny to see this soap opera play out as each has taken turns puffing out their chest at the other conference. But Bullet you are probably correct....

I don't think anyone's going anywhere for a while. (At least no one in Lower-FBS).

Let's say that a school (like *cough* San Jose State) is having real problems keeping up financially with the rest of the MWC. It's far more likely they'll A) fart around and bottom-feed for years hoping to figure out a solution than B) stand up and say "FBS/MWC-level athletics is not for us. We're calling the Big Sky/Big West/WAC/MVFC and trying to work something out."

Downward movement would really only happen when a conference gets itself together and kicks someone to the curb, like what happened to Temple.

I wonder if the G5 would be better off aligning into smaller conferences that require less bowl games.

For example, have the Texas and Louisiana schools break away from CUSA and take New Mexico St, A-State, ULL with them. This way they can ensure regionally based championships. They can sign bowls with AAC and MWC and not even deal with the MAC if they want. As a quasi-western league they would stand out more with the public.

CUSA losing only 5 schools could reload with only 1 and get back to 10. Add Georgia State from the SBC to fill in the geography gap. Don't raid the SBC hard and force them to pick up a bunch of FCS upgrades again.

SWC: NMSU, UTEP, UNT, UTSA, Rice, La Tech, ULL, AState
CUSA: USM, UAB, MTSU, WKU, Marshall, Charlotte, ODU, Georgia St, FIU, FAU

SBC can then go with EKU/Liberty to get back to 9 in football. It wouldn't be perfect but it would be no worse than where they are today.

SBC: Idaho, Texas St, ULM, USA, Troy, Georgia Southern, ASU, EKU, Liberty

And how does the Big East fit in all this? Interesting questions. I personally am not a fan of an exclusive P5 grouping.

(08-10-2014 12:01 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  I don't think anyone's going anywhere for a while. (At least no one in Lower-FBS).

Let's say that a school (like *cough* San Jose State) is having real problems keeping up financially with the rest of the MWC. It's far more likely they'll A) fart around and bottom-feed for years hoping to figure out a solution than B) stand up and say "FBS/MWC-level athletics is not for us. We're calling the Big Sky/Big West/WAC/MVFC and trying to work something out."

Downward movement would really only happen when a conference gets itself together and kicks someone to the curb, like what happened to Temple.

Yep.

Demographic trends in the future could favor programs that are hurting now, you never know. Who thought SJSU would get into the Top 25 in 2012 and join the MWC in 2013? There are so many reasons not to bow out of the game.

P5's may take the approach of going bigger over cannibalizing the B12 because it will be too hard to control the masses with only 4 conferences. That is bound to open up spots for the Idaho's and NMSU's of the world in more regionally based conferences. The MWC could invite the Montana schools to move up when there is an opening and bring back Idaho on travel reasons. The next TCU's and Utah's will knock on the door of the playoff and get picked up in another 10 years by the P5's. Change is constant. If UCF starts drawing 60,000 a game and is a major power the ACC will realize they can use them to help in bowl negotiations.

While I think G5 realignment is likely, I don't believe it is inevitable.

The MAC has opted to re-open their contract with ESPN and C-USA's deal is nearing expiration.

MAC expects to receive about a million per team and presumably C-USA expects to stay near that number or do better.

If they get their numbers, then maybe things stay stable.

If they don't then things may get ugly.

The reality is that in budget terms, none of the G5 are doing much in TV revenue and so far haven't entered into any sort of cooperation agreements to maximize TV and have made very tentative moves to do anything with post-season.

History says there will never be a reorganization summit.

If we look at history then more likely path is a group of schools becoming dissatisfied and breaking from their league or a league believing it has an opportunity to exploit and goes predatory.

Across G5 there are a lot of potential flashpoints.
MWC may want to get back into the central time zone.
BYU could have a change of heart and lead to a MWC break and down-size
A disaffected AAC group could break. They could go predatory
A disaffected CUSA group could break. They could also go predatory
A disaffected MAC group could break. The MAC could conclude larger is better.
Even Sun Belt could fracture and opt to go smaller.

The flashpoints exist but that doesn't mean all or any ever happen.

I think today, the uncertainty over what the TV model looks like makes MWC and AAC inclined to stay pat for several because of the term remaining on their TV and size of that deal.

The wildcard is if someone convinces the G5 to go to the CFP and change the money distribution. If the 12 team cap stays in place it remains a disincentive to growing.

Thinking of G5 movement top down here, I have always liked a move by the AAC to take BYU and Colorado St. The trickle down to this movement would straighten out some geographic issues. It doesn't have to be anything as major as the formation of a completely new conference. The AAC would position themselves as the clear top G5 conference with BYU.

AAC (BYU, Colorado St)-BYU plus the Denver market to boost TV rights
MWC (UTEP, UTSA, UNT)-MWC goes big into Texas
CUSA (Georgia St)-CUSA addresses a geography gap into the East

SBC could hang at 10 schools it it wanted to split the CFP money less ways.

(08-10-2014 11:08 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  With autonomy coming...I think conferences and teams will be scrambling to align themselves where they can survive and in some cases prosper.

The G5 should work together at a big summit and find out how to do this with forethought and sanity. I could see 2-3 conferences working like hell to align with the P-5. The others might be better to align with the top FCS.

A few schools might be out of place: UTSA, TX St., Louisiana, LaTech, Marshall, Toledo, Ohio, etc...and might have to move to a new conference. I hope they can do this without these huge waiting periods and large fees.

CUSA is a tweener in this group...they could go either way.

C-USA is not a tweener. C-USA has the resources to keep up with the MWC, and AAC.

Also, I can't see the G5 working together. They just don't trust each other enough to do that. There could be a realignment within the G5, but I don't see it happening any time soon. Shrinking media contracts, higher travel cost, and higher conference buyouts should keep everyone stable for a while.

I think each conference will figure out how much they can do to try and keep up with the P5. Each will be able or willing to do a certain amount. How much? Right now know one can say. I'm sure in time there will be programs that decide they can do more then their conference can, and some that can't do as much as most in their conference. That's when we will probably see some movement. I believe the AAC, C-USA, and the MWC can survive this.

There's a hole were the WAC used to be. I don't think the MWC will remain the only G5 conference in the west. There are 16 G5 teams on this side of the country (if you include UTEP), and several high caliber FCS teams. The following don't seem out of the realm of possibilities:

-3 or 4 FCS schools move up
-A rift grows between the weak and strong MWC teams
-Idaho, NMSU, the FCS moveups, and the weak MW teams end up in a conference
-BSU, BYU, and the other strong MW teams end up in a higher profile G5 conference

(08-10-2014 12:55 PM)dmacfour Wrote:  There's a hole were the WAC used to be. I don't think the MWC will remain the only G5 conference in the west. There are 16 G5 teams on this side of the country (if you include UTEP), and several high caliber FCS teams. The following don't seem out of the realm of possibilities:

-3 or 4 FCS schools move up
-A rift grows between the weak and strong MWC teams
-Idaho, NMSU, the FCS moveups, and the weak MW teams end up in a conference
-BSU, BYU, and the other strong MW teams end up in a higher profile G5 conference

I think the west ends up with coverage from 3 conferences---I just don't think it will work in the nice neat way you are thinking of. I think its more likely that the AAC (or some new best of the rest conference) eventually goes nationwide with 5 or 6 MW schools. Then you have the MW filling in its membership with options like NM St, Idaho, UTEP, UTSA, N Tx, or possibly a some of the stronger Big Sky FCS schools. This way you end up with 3 competing FBS conferences in the west---its just that the 3 conferences are not fully self-contained in the west.

G5 Super Conference:

San Diego State
Fresno State
Boise State
BYU
UNLV
New Mexico
Colorado State
Houston
SMU
Memphis
Central Florida
South Florida
East Carolina
Cincinnati
Temple
Connecticut

(08-10-2014 01:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think the west ends up with coverage from 3 conferences---I just don't think it will work in the nice neat way you are thinking of. I think its more likely that the AAC (or some new best of the rest conference) eventually goes nationwide with 5 or 6 MW schools.

Once again, when the rubber hit the road last February, SDSU chose Fresno, SJSU and UNR over Houston, SMU, Tulane, UConn, UCF & Co, while ECU And Friends chose Tulsa over SDSU. That tells me that the interest just isn't there for a coast-to-coast upper-lower-FBS conference.

(You and me both thought that SDSU and the Aresco League were still a fit, even without Boise. Nobody who mattered agreed with us, which tells me that there was something important I don't know or I'm misinterpreting. Most likely that Marinatto's propaganda about the value of games in four time zones was hooey.)

(08-10-2014 01:50 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(08-10-2014 01:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think the west ends up with coverage from 3 conferences---I just don't think it will work in the nice neat way you are thinking of. I think its more likely that the AAC (or some new best of the rest conference) eventually goes nationwide with 5 or 6 MW schools.

Once again, when the rubber hit the road last February, SDSU chose Fresno, SJSU and UNR over Houston, SMU, Tulane, UConn, UCF & Co, while ECU And Friends chose Tulsa over SDSU. That tells me that the interest just isn't there for a coast-to-coast upper-lower-FBS conference.

(You and me both thought that SDSU and the Aresco League were still a fit, even without Boise. Nobody who mattered agreed with us, which tells me that there was something important I don't know or I'm misinterpreting. Most likely that Marinatto's propaganda about the value of games in four time zones was hooey.)

Probably because there's a huge geographical difference between pacific time zone schools just about everyone else in the MWC

(08-10-2014 01:58 PM)dmacfour Wrote:  

(08-10-2014 01:50 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(08-10-2014 01:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think the west ends up with coverage from 3 conferences---I just don't think it will work in the nice neat way you are thinking of. I think its more likely that the AAC (or some new best of the rest conference) eventually goes nationwide with 5 or 6 MW schools.

Once again, when the rubber hit the road last February, SDSU chose Fresno, SJSU and UNR over Houston, SMU, Tulane, UConn, UCF & Co, while ECU And Friends chose Tulsa over SDSU. That tells me that the interest just isn't there for a coast-to-coast upper-lower-FBS conference.

(You and me both thought that SDSU and the Aresco League were still a fit, even without Boise. Nobody who mattered agreed with us, which tells me that there was something important I don't know or I'm misinterpreting. Most likely that Marinatto's propaganda about the value of games in four time zones was hooey.)

Probably because there's a huge geographical difference between pacific time zone schools just about everyone else in the MWC

Wut?

(08-10-2014 02:23 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(08-10-2014 01:58 PM)dmacfour Wrote:  

(08-10-2014 01:50 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(08-10-2014 01:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think the west ends up with coverage from 3 conferences---I just don't think it will work in the nice neat way you are thinking of. I think its more likely that the AAC (or some new best of the rest conference) eventually goes nationwide with 5 or 6 MW schools.

Once again, when the rubber hit the road last February, SDSU chose Fresno, SJSU and UNR over Houston, SMU, Tulane, UConn, UCF & Co, while ECU And Friends chose Tulsa over SDSU. That tells me that the interest just isn't there for a coast-to-coast upper-lower-FBS conference.

(You and me both thought that SDSU and the Aresco League were still a fit, even without Boise. Nobody who mattered agreed with us, which tells me that there was something important I don't know or I'm misinterpreting. Most likely that Marinatto's propaganda about the value of games in four time zones was hooey.)

Probably because there's a huge geographical difference between pacific time zone schools just about everyone else in the MWC

Wut?

The schools you specifically mentioned are far removed from the other MW schools. They have even less motivation to be in a coast to coast conference than the rest of the MW schools.

(08-10-2014 01:50 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(08-10-2014 01:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think the west ends up with coverage from 3 conferences---I just don't think it will work in the nice neat way you are thinking of. I think its more likely that the AAC (or some new best of the rest conference) eventually goes nationwide with 5 or 6 MW schools.

Once again, when the rubber hit the road last February, SDSU chose Fresno, SJSU and UNR over Houston, SMU, Tulane, UConn, UCF & Co, while ECU And Friends chose Tulsa over SDSU. That tells me that the interest just isn't there for a coast-to-coast upper-lower-FBS conference.

(You and me both thought that SDSU and the Aresco League were still a fit, even without Boise. Nobody who mattered agreed with us, which tells me that there was something important I don't know or I'm misinterpreting. Most likely that Marinatto's propaganda about the value of games in four time zones was hooey.)

The AAC was a fit institutionally, but logistically--SDSU could not be the ONLY western school in the AAC. What Im saying is a future all-sports 18 team nationwide best of the rest conference where 5 or 6 MW schools make up the "western division" of a 3-division G5 conference is perfectly viable. A group of G5 schools all offering similar autonomous benefits to the P5 might be the basis such a national conference. Remember, the whole basis of the thread is autonomy might cause G5 movement.

(08-10-2014 02:26 PM)dmacfour Wrote:  

(08-10-2014 02:23 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(08-10-2014 01:58 PM)dmacfour Wrote:  

(08-10-2014 01:50 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(08-10-2014 01:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I think the west ends up with coverage from 3 conferences---I just don't think it will work in the nice neat way you are thinking of. I think its more likely that the AAC (or some new best of the rest conference) eventually goes nationwide with 5 or 6 MW schools.

Once again, when the rubber hit the road last February, SDSU chose Fresno, SJSU and UNR over Houston, SMU, Tulane, UConn, UCF & Co, while ECU And Friends chose Tulsa over SDSU. That tells me that the interest just isn't there for a coast-to-coast upper-lower-FBS conference.

(You and me both thought that SDSU and the Aresco League were still a fit, even without Boise. Nobody who mattered agreed with us, which tells me that there was something important I don't know or I'm misinterpreting. Most likely that Marinatto's propaganda about the value of games in four time zones was hooey.)

Probably because there's a huge geographical difference between pacific time zone schools just about everyone else in the MWC

Wut?

The schools you specifically mentioned are far removed from the other MW schools. They have even less motivation to be in a coast to coast conference than the rest of the MW schools.

Oh. That may be true, but SDSU also has(had?) a little more incentive to separate from an MWC with Fresno State, SJSU and the Nevada schools and link up with other "big-time city" universities. A lot of college sports and conference-shuffling is branding. A nationwide football conference marks SDSU as not just another Cal State or even UC-Santa Claus.

Colorado State or UNLV or whoever doesn't get that kind of local boost from ditching their MWC peers.

(08-10-2014 12:16 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  While I think G5 realignment is likely, I don't believe it is inevitable.

The MAC has opted to re-open their contract with ESPN and C-USA's deal is nearing expiration.

MAC expects to receive about a million per team and presumably C-USA expects to stay near that number or do better.

If they get their numbers, then maybe things stay stable.

If they don't then things may get ugly.

The reality is that in budget terms, none of the G5 are doing much in TV revenue and so far haven't entered into any sort of cooperation agreements to maximize TV and have made very tentative moves to do anything with post-season.

History says there will never be a reorganization summit.

If we look at history then more likely path is a group of schools becoming dissatisfied and breaking from their league or a league believing it has an opportunity to exploit and goes predatory.

Across G5 there are a lot of potential flashpoints.
MWC may want to get back into the central time zone.
BYU could have a change of heart and lead to a MWC break and down-size
A disaffected AAC group could break. They could go predatory
A disaffected CUSA group could break. They could also go predatory
A disaffected MAC group could break. The MAC could conclude larger is better.
Even Sun Belt could fracture and opt to go smaller.

The flashpoints exist but that doesn't mean all or any ever happen.

I think today, the uncertainty over what the TV model looks like makes MWC and AAC inclined to stay pat for several because of the term remaining on their TV and size of that deal.

The wildcard is if someone convinces the G5 to go to the CFP and change the money distribution. If the 12 team cap stays in place it remains a disincentive to growing.

If MAC gets that kind of money, CUSA will get more.