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As he should be! Autonomy is 100x better for the AAC than the P5 breaking off to form Division 4 would have been.

It is going to be even better for the AAC when some schools from other mid major conference begin shifting into the AAC in order to combine themselves and improving their strength of schedules.

It truly seems inevitable that the AAC is going to become the big tent of the next tier. They know it too.

(08-07-2014 09:57 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  It is going to be even better for the AAC when some schools from other mid major conference begin shifting into the AAC in order to combine themselves and improving their strength of schedules.

It truly seems inevitable that the AAC is going to become the big tent of the next tier. They know it too.

SOS numbers so far out of the AAC do not support the idea of it becoming the big tent with a leg up on an access bowl.

The deciding factor as to who makes it out of the AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, SBC to the access bowl is going to be W/L record. If two conference champions are undefeated they'll both be in access bowls. If two conference champions have losses are tied then it will come down to non-conference scheduling.

(08-07-2014 10:15 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(08-07-2014 09:57 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  It is going to be even better for the AAC when some schools from other mid major conference begin shifting into the AAC in order to combine themselves and improving their strength of schedules.

It truly seems inevitable that the AAC is going to become the big tent of the next tier. They know it too.

SOS numbers so far out of the AAC do not support the idea of it becoming the big tent with a leg up on an access bowl.

The deciding factor as to who makes it out of the AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, SBC to the access bowl is going to be W/L record. If two conference champions are undefeated they'll both be in access bowls. If two conference champions have losses are tied then it will come down to non-conference scheduling.

If the AAC was to expand to 20 by taking the best of those from the MWC, CUSA and BYU then it would absolutely have the SoS to support the idea that it is well above the rest of the Mid Majors and would be deserving of a spot in the eight team National Tournament. After all, everyone knows that Cinderella's are great for tournaments.

(08-07-2014 10:15 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  SOS numbers so far out of the AAC do not support the idea of it becoming the big tent with a leg up on an access bowl.

The deciding factor as to who makes it out of the AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, SBC to the access bowl is going to be W/L record. If two conference champions are undefeated they'll both be in access bowls. If two conference champions have losses are tied then it will come down to non-conference scheduling.

Where are you getting your information, it's completely contrary to everything I've ever heard about in regards to the Access Bowls.

There will be ONLY ONE G5 representative in the Access Bowls, the P5 own 5 of the 8 slots by contract - that leaves only two other slots up for grabs... In order for another G5 program to get a slot, there would likely need to be two G5 programs in the top ten <---HIGHLY UNLIKELY!!!

The new playoff committee will also pick the Access Bowl participants based on their committee rankings and strength of schedule will play a role in their rankings. The American only has two programs with SOS outside the top 60 in the country (USF and Houston) and none in the 100's.

(08-07-2014 11:55 PM)IceJus10 Wrote:  

(08-07-2014 10:15 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  SOS numbers so far out of the AAC do not support the idea of it becoming the big tent with a leg up on an access bowl.

The deciding factor as to who makes it out of the AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, SBC to the access bowl is going to be W/L record. If two conference champions are undefeated they'll both be in access bowls. If two conference champions have losses are tied then it will come down to non-conference scheduling.

Where are you getting your information, it's completely contrary to everything I've ever heard about in regards to the Access Bowls.

There will be ONLY ONE G5 representative in the Access Bowls, the P5 own 5 of the 8 slots by contract - that leaves only two other slots up for grabs... In order for another G5 program to get a slot, there would likely need to be two G5 programs in the top ten <---HIGHLY UNLIKELY!!!

The new playoff committee will also pick the Access Bowl participants based on their committee rankings and strength of schedule will play a role in their rankings. The American only has two programs with SOS outside the top 60 in the country (USF and Houston) and none in the 100's.

His scenario was based on there being 2 undefeated G5 candidates.

(08-07-2014 10:15 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(08-07-2014 09:57 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  It is going to be even better for the AAC when some schools from other mid major conference begin shifting into the AAC in order to combine themselves and improving their strength of schedules.

It truly seems inevitable that the AAC is going to become the big tent of the next tier. They know it too.

SOS numbers so far out of the AAC do not support the idea of it becoming the big tent with a leg up on an access bowl.

The deciding factor as to who makes it out of the AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, SBC to the access bowl is going to be W/L record. If two conference champions are undefeated they'll both be in access bowls. If two conference champions have losses are tied then it will come down to non-conference scheduling.

Yes and no. Yes, in that anyone who thinks that the AAC champ will have a leg up due to SOS is not thinking straight. The SOS difference is likely to be slight.

E.g., last year, going in to the bowl games, UCF and Northern Illinois had Sagarin SOS ratings of 109 and 118 respectively. Those are essentially the same SOS ratings.

But two G5 schools in Access Bowls? Strikes me as highly unlikely. There will be a P5 team that beats out whatever G5 school goes unbeaten. This system was not designed to allow two G5 schools to make the Access bowls.

W/L is going to decide it. If W/L is equal, a coin flip might.

Obviously the highest rated G5 champ will be included with the automatic bid BUT in the extremely rare situation there is two undefeated G5 champs I see the second one getting in by virtue of having a 13-0 record. The committee is going to weigh W/L heavily.

Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

(08-08-2014 05:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-07-2014 10:15 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(08-07-2014 09:57 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  It is going to be even better for the AAC when some schools from other mid major conference begin shifting into the AAC in order to combine themselves and improving their strength of schedules.

It truly seems inevitable that the AAC is going to become the big tent of the next tier. They know it too.

SOS numbers so far out of the AAC do not support the idea of it becoming the big tent with a leg up on an access bowl.

The deciding factor as to who makes it out of the AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, SBC to the access bowl is going to be W/L record. If two conference champions are undefeated they'll both be in access bowls. If two conference champions have losses are tied then it will come down to non-conference scheduling.

Yes and no. Yes, in that anyone who thinks that the AAC champ will have a leg up due to SOS is not thinking straight. The SOS difference is likely to be slight.

E.g., last year, going in to the bowl games, UCF and Northern Illinois had Sagarin SOS ratings of 109 and 118 respectively. Those are essentially the same SOS ratings.

But two G5 schools in Access Bowls? Strikes me as highly unlikely. There will be a P5 team that beats out whatever G5 school goes unbeaten. This system was not designed to allow two G5 schools to make the Access bowls.

W/L is going to decide it. If W/L is equal, a coin flip might.

I disagree. The AAC is better top to bottom than every other non-P5 conference even the MWC (just look at the teams). Boise seems to be coming down to earth and ECU, UH, UCF, Cincy, Navy, Tulsa (despite last year) and even USF have tantamount programs or even better than any team in the MWC outside of Boise. Even UCONN has been to a BCS bowl recently and beaten South Carolina in a bowl not too long ago as well. & even a 6 win SMU dominated a 9 win Fresno in a bowl a couple years back. An average seven win ECU team beat a 10 win Boise in a bowl about 5 or 6 years ago.

If an AAC team goes undefeated then the access spot is a foregone conclusion. In fact, if ECU, Cincy, or UCF have 1 loss then they should get in over an undefeated MWC team. More importantly, a strong argument could be made that a 2 loss AAC champ would deserve it over an undefeated Marshall.

Just compare the SOS between ECU & Marshall this year:

ECU:

North Carolina Central
@ South Carolina
@ Virginia Tech
North Carolina
SMU
@ USF
UCONN
@ Temple
@ Cincinnati
Tulane
@ Tulsa
UCF

Marshall:

@ Miami (OH)
Rhode Island
Ohio
@ Akron
@ Old Dominion
Middle Tennessee
@ FIU
Florida Atl
@ Southern Miss
Rice
@ UAB
Western Kentucky

Marshall's toughest games are against Miami (OH), Ohio, MTSU, Rice, and ODU?

ECU's toughest games are against South Carolina, VT, UNC, Cincy, and UCF.

ECU's schedule looks like a real Division 1 schedule while Marshall's looks like a FCS/MAC/Sunbelt hybrid schedule.

(08-08-2014 07:04 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Obviously the highest rated G5 champ will be included with the automatic bid BUT in the extremely rare situation there is two undefeated G5 champs I see the second one getting in by virtue of having a 13-0 record. The committee is going to weigh W/L heavily.

Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

Here's where I think your logic falls apart: You correctly note that when comparing G5 schools, overall record will be decisive because SOS is not likely to be very different.

But, for a second G5 school to get in, they will not be being compared to other G5 schools, but rather to P5 schools, big names that have played tough schedules.

I just don't see any way that, e.g., an 11-2 Alabama team that played an SOS of 22 is going to be left out for a 13-0 San Diego State team with an SOS of 95. That will, IMHO, never happen. The bowls don't want it, TV won't want it, and the committee won't want it.

(08-08-2014 07:29 AM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  

(08-08-2014 05:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-07-2014 10:15 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(08-07-2014 09:57 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  It is going to be even better for the AAC when some schools from other mid major conference begin shifting into the AAC in order to combine themselves and improving their strength of schedules.

It truly seems inevitable that the AAC is going to become the big tent of the next tier. They know it too.

SOS numbers so far out of the AAC do not support the idea of it becoming the big tent with a leg up on an access bowl.

The deciding factor as to who makes it out of the AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, SBC to the access bowl is going to be W/L record. If two conference champions are undefeated they'll both be in access bowls. If two conference champions have losses are tied then it will come down to non-conference scheduling.

Yes and no. Yes, in that anyone who thinks that the AAC champ will have a leg up due to SOS is not thinking straight. The SOS difference is likely to be slight.

E.g., last year, going in to the bowl games, UCF and Northern Illinois had Sagarin SOS ratings of 109 and 118 respectively. Those are essentially the same SOS ratings.

But two G5 schools in Access Bowls? Strikes me as highly unlikely. There will be a P5 team that beats out whatever G5 school goes unbeaten. This system was not designed to allow two G5 schools to make the Access bowls.

W/L is going to decide it. If W/L is equal, a coin flip might.

I disagree. The AAC is better top to bottom than every other non-P5 conference even the MWC (just look at the teams). Boise seems to be coming down to earth and ECU, UH, UCF, Cincy, Navy, Tulsa (despite last year) and even USF have tantamount programs or even better than any team in the MWC outside of Boise. Even UCONN has been to a BCS bowl recently and beaten South Carolina in a bowl not too long ago as well. & even a 6 win SMU dominated a 9 win Fresno in a bowl a couple years back. An average seven win ECU team beat a 10 win Boise in a bowl about 5 or 6 years ago.

If an AAC team goes undefeated then the access spot is a foregone conclusion.

Look at last year's SOS ratings: UCF finished with a Sagarin SOS of 79, which is weak. And that was despite playing a 12-1 Louisville team, a 11-2 Baylor team, and a 11-2 South Carolina team. Three teams that finished at #4, #13, and #15 in the final AP poll, with a combined record of 34-5 and against tough P5 schedules, and yet UCF's SOS was STILL a lousy 79!

I am telling you - the chances that the AAC champ will have an SOS significantly tougher than the MWC champ or any other contender for that access spot is NOT good. Sure, you can cherry-pick two G5 teams like Marshall and ECU, but In all likelihood, these SOS ratings across the G5 champs, particularly the top two contenders for the access spot, will all be about the same.

(08-08-2014 07:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-08-2014 07:29 AM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  

(08-08-2014 05:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-07-2014 10:15 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(08-07-2014 09:57 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  It is going to be even better for the AAC when some schools from other mid major conference begin shifting into the AAC in order to combine themselves and improving their strength of schedules.

It truly seems inevitable that the AAC is going to become the big tent of the next tier. They know it too.

SOS numbers so far out of the AAC do not support the idea of it becoming the big tent with a leg up on an access bowl.

The deciding factor as to who makes it out of the AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, SBC to the access bowl is going to be W/L record. If two conference champions are undefeated they'll both be in access bowls. If two conference champions have losses are tied then it will come down to non-conference scheduling.

Yes and no. Yes, in that anyone who thinks that the AAC champ will have a leg up due to SOS is not thinking straight. The SOS difference is likely to be slight.

E.g., last year, going in to the bowl games, UCF and Northern Illinois had Sagarin SOS ratings of 109 and 118 respectively. Those are essentially the same SOS ratings.

But two G5 schools in Access Bowls? Strikes me as highly unlikely. There will be a P5 team that beats out whatever G5 school goes unbeaten. This system was not designed to allow two G5 schools to make the Access bowls.

W/L is going to decide it. If W/L is equal, a coin flip might.

I disagree. The AAC is better top to bottom than every other non-P5 conference even the MWC (just look at the teams). Boise seems to be coming down to earth and ECU, UH, UCF, Cincy, Navy, Tulsa (despite last year) and even USF have tantamount programs or even better than any team in the MWC outside of Boise. Even UCONN has been to a BCS bowl recently and beaten South Carolina in a bowl not too long ago as well. & even a 6 win SMU dominated a 9 win Fresno in a bowl a couple years back. An average seven win ECU team beat a 10 win Boise in a bowl about 5 or 6 years ago.

If an AAC team goes undefeated then the access spot is a foregone conclusion.

Look at last year's SOS ratings: UCF finished with a Sagarin SOS of 79, which is weak. And that was despite playing a 12-1 Louisville team, a 11-2 Baylor team, and a 11-2 South Carolina team. Three teams that finished at #4, #13, and #15 in the final AP poll, with a combined record of 34-5 and against tough P5 schedules, and yet UCF's SOS was STILL a lousy 79!

I am telling you - the chances that the AAC champ will have an SOS significantly tougher than the MWC champ or any other contender for that access spot is NOT good. Sure, you can cherry-pick two G5 teams like Marshall and ECU, but In all likelihood, these SOS ratings across the G5 champs, particularly the top two contenders for the access spot, will all be about the same.

I have stated I think that SOS for the committee will be far more concerned more about the top 4 than the remaining access spots. I think any team in the G5 that goes undefeated, will get the access spot. In your scenario, if ECU and Marshall both went undefeated, ECU would be the ACCESS team via ranking alone. Hell, I would even say they should be in the TOP 4 with that schedule.

I have stated the main concern for the AAC beating each other up and that will be knocking them out of Access Situations.

(08-08-2014 08:54 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(08-08-2014 07:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-08-2014 07:29 AM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  

(08-08-2014 05:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-07-2014 10:15 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  SOS numbers so far out of the AAC do not support the idea of it becoming the big tent with a leg up on an access bowl.

The deciding factor as to who makes it out of the AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, SBC to the access bowl is going to be W/L record. If two conference champions are undefeated they'll both be in access bowls. If two conference champions have losses are tied then it will come down to non-conference scheduling.

Yes and no. Yes, in that anyone who thinks that the AAC champ will have a leg up due to SOS is not thinking straight. The SOS difference is likely to be slight.

E.g., last year, going in to the bowl games, UCF and Northern Illinois had Sagarin SOS ratings of 109 and 118 respectively. Those are essentially the same SOS ratings.

But two G5 schools in Access Bowls? Strikes me as highly unlikely. There will be a P5 team that beats out whatever G5 school goes unbeaten. This system was not designed to allow two G5 schools to make the Access bowls.

W/L is going to decide it. If W/L is equal, a coin flip might.

I disagree. The AAC is better top to bottom than every other non-P5 conference even the MWC (just look at the teams). Boise seems to be coming down to earth and ECU, UH, UCF, Cincy, Navy, Tulsa (despite last year) and even USF have tantamount programs or even better than any team in the MWC outside of Boise. Even UCONN has been to a BCS bowl recently and beaten South Carolina in a bowl not too long ago as well. & even a 6 win SMU dominated a 9 win Fresno in a bowl a couple years back. An average seven win ECU team beat a 10 win Boise in a bowl about 5 or 6 years ago.

If an AAC team goes undefeated then the access spot is a foregone conclusion.

Look at last year's SOS ratings: UCF finished with a Sagarin SOS of 79, which is weak. And that was despite playing a 12-1 Louisville team, a 11-2 Baylor team, and a 11-2 South Carolina team. Three teams that finished at #4, #13, and #15 in the final AP poll, with a combined record of 34-5 and against tough P5 schedules, and yet UCF's SOS was STILL a lousy 79!

I am telling you - the chances that the AAC champ will have an SOS significantly tougher than the MWC champ or any other contender for that access spot is NOT good. Sure, you can cherry-pick two G5 teams like Marshall and ECU, but In all likelihood, these SOS ratings across the G5 champs, particularly the top two contenders for the access spot, will all be about the same.

I have stated I think that SOS for the committee will be far more concerned more about the top 4 than the remaining access spots. I think any team in the G5 that goes undefeated, will get the access spot. In your scenario, if ECU and Marshall both went undefeated, ECU would be the ACCESS team via ranking alone. Hell, I would even say they should be in the TOP 4 with that schedule.

I have stated the main concern for the AAC beating each other up and that will be knocking them out of Access Situations.

Remember, schedules that look tough on paper in August may not turn out to be in December, and vice-versa.

But of course I agree that if ECU and Marshall both go unbeaten, and if formulas like Sagarin show that ECU has played a clearly tougher schedule, then of course the committee is going to pick ECU over Marshall.

My point was just that when it all does shake out, it is unlikely that the AAC champion is going to have played a significantly tougher schedule than the MWC champ, or even the MAC champ, has played.

And I do think the committee will give due care to those remaining access slots. Playing in access bowls will still be a very big deal and attention will be focused on them despite the fact that most of the discussion will be about the top four.

(08-08-2014 07:29 AM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  

(08-08-2014 05:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-07-2014 10:15 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(08-07-2014 09:57 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  It is going to be even better for the AAC when some schools from other mid major conference begin shifting into the AAC in order to combine themselves and improving their strength of schedules.

It truly seems inevitable that the AAC is going to become the big tent of the next tier. They know it too.

SOS numbers so far out of the AAC do not support the idea of it becoming the big tent with a leg up on an access bowl.

The deciding factor as to who makes it out of the AAC, MWC, MAC, CUSA, SBC to the access bowl is going to be W/L record. If two conference champions are undefeated they'll both be in access bowls. If two conference champions have losses are tied then it will come down to non-conference scheduling.

Yes and no. Yes, in that anyone who thinks that the AAC champ will have a leg up due to SOS is not thinking straight. The SOS difference is likely to be slight.

E.g., last year, going in to the bowl games, UCF and Northern Illinois had Sagarin SOS ratings of 109 and 118 respectively. Those are essentially the same SOS ratings.

But two G5 schools in Access Bowls? Strikes me as highly unlikely. There will be a P5 team that beats out whatever G5 school goes unbeaten. This system was not designed to allow two G5 schools to make the Access bowls.

W/L is going to decide it. If W/L is equal, a coin flip might.

I disagree. The AAC is better top to bottom than every other non-P5 conference even the MWC (just look at the teams). Boise seems to be coming down to earth and ECU, UH, UCF, Cincy, Navy, Tulsa (despite last year) and even USF have tantamount programs or even better than any team in the MWC outside of Boise. Even UCONN has been to a BCS bowl recently and beaten South Carolina in a bowl not too long ago as well. & even a 6 win SMU dominated a 9 win Fresno in a bowl a couple years back. An average seven win ECU team beat a 10 win Boise in a bowl about 5 or 6 years ago.

If an AAC team goes undefeated then the access spot is a foregone conclusion. In fact, if ECU, Cincy, or UCF have 1 loss then they should get in over an undefeated MWC team. More importantly, a strong argument could be made that a 2 loss AAC champ would deserve it over an undefeated Marshall.

Just compare the SOS between ECU & Marshall this year:

ECU:

North Carolina Central
@ South Carolina
@ Virginia Tech
North Carolina
SMU
@ USF
UCONN
@ Temple
@ Cincinnati
Tulane
@ Tulsa
UCF

Marshall:

@ Miami (OH)
Rhode Island
Ohio
@ Akron
@ Old Dominion
Middle Tennessee
@ FIU
Florida Atl
@ Southern Miss
Rice
@ UAB
Western Kentucky

Marshall's toughest games are against Miami (OH), Ohio, MTSU, Rice, and ODU?

ECU's toughest games are against South Carolina, VT, UNC, Cincy, and UCF.

ECU's schedule looks like a real Division 1 schedule while Marshall's looks like a FCS/MAC/Sunbelt hybrid schedule.

With that schedule, it isn't inconceivable that ECU could win the AAC and still have 3 or 4 losses. In that case, I don't think it's inconceivable that a 1 loss MAC champion or even a 2 loss Boise State would be picked ahead of them for the one access bowl slot reserved for the G5.

AAC should add 6 teams and get it over with, officially become the de facto P6 with this lineup:

East
UConn
Army
Temple
Navy
Cincinnati
Memphis
ECU
Central Florida
South Florida

West
Tulane
Houston
SMU
Tulsa
Air Force
BYU
Boise State
Fresno State
San Diego State

Pretty close but instead think 20 teams and four divisions. Four games in division and at least one against every other division. That is a seven game conference schedule that leaves a ton of room for OOC scheduling. They could always add to the games played against other divisions.

That will combine pretty much the best of the Mid Majors and would make their strength of schedule far exceed any other mid major conference. Since the P5 are looking to put some distance between themselves and the rest, the AAC will likely take a page out of their book and pull a similar maneuver.

This year will actually NOT be the best test case for the SOS of the American because it doesnt yet have a champ game.

What will be the difference is the SOS of the TOP teams...i.e. the American will have more good teams...and its not like every other G5 conference doesn't have some really bad teams too.

For instance ECU and Houston could both go unbeaten this year in conference play. They don't play each other. But next year if that happens, they play each other in the champ game and the winner has a better SOS.

The key to the American is staying at 12 unless there is a good FB add out there....which makes Navy or theoretically BYU an easy add.