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Realistic upgrade scenario
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #1
Realistic upgrade scenario
The P5 is never going to give an autobid to the American, no matter how loudly Aresco crows about it.

After all, by doing so, they eliminate one at-large bid. They have no financial incentive to do that.

About the best we can hope for is:

1. Extra money from the playoff. Take us out of the G5 mix and pay us better and either:

2. A play-in game where the American champ plays the highest rated G4 champ for the right to the "G5 bid" or

3. An auto bid if the American champion is ranked more than 2 spots ahead of the nearest G4 champ. This exception would only apply to our champ.

This way, we either qualify for the game or have a chance to play for it ever year. The downside is that we forfeit an auto bid in the years our champ is 1 or 2 spots ahead of nearest G4 champ.

But before they would cut a deal like that for us, we need to win the G5 bid several times and perform well in the bowl games.

If they won't cut is a special deal, another option is to schedule a champ vs champ game vs. the MWC every year. Our two conferences are the best, and the committee would have a hard time snubbing the winner of that game.

Another option is to enter a sharing agreement with the MWC where we split the extra money from qualifying for the game if either one of our champs participate.
08-06-2014 11:08 AM
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 11:08 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  The P5 is never going to give an autobid to the American, no matter how loudly Aresco crows about it.

After all, by doing so, they eliminate one at-large bid. They have no financial incentive to do that.

About the best we can hope for is:

1. Extra money from the playoff. Take us out of the G5 mix and pay us better and either:

2. A play-in game where the American champ plays the highest rated G4 champ for the right to the "G5 bid" or

3. An auto bid if the American champion is ranked more than 2 spots ahead of the nearest G4 champ. This exception would only apply to our champ.

This way, we either qualify for the game or have a chance to play for it ever year. The downside is that we forfeit an auto bid in the years our champ is 1 or 2 spots ahead of nearest G4 champ.

But before they would cut a deal like that for us, we need to win the G5 bid several times and perform well in the bowl games.

If they won't cut is a special deal, another option is to schedule a champ vs champ game vs. the MWC every year. Our two conferences are the best, and the committee would have a hard time snubbing the winner of that game.

Another option is to enter a sharing agreement with the MWC where we split the extra money from qualifying for the game if either one of our champs participate.

In your #3 above, that is exactly what will happen now. If AAC champ is above the G4, then they will be selected.

The only realistic scenario is that the Access bowl slot becomes the "de-facto" AAC bid in the minds of the selection committee. This is an achievable goal. This should be the goal, and will likely happen if the AAC is selected for at least the next 3 access bowls. Then it will be implanted in the minds of the selection committee that this spot should go to the AAC virtually all the time, barring any unforseen circumstances. It is highly critical that the AAC piggy back off last year's success and duplicate it this year in football. If this happens 3 more years in a row, it will become "our" spot.
08-06-2014 12:12 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 12:12 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 11:08 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  The P5 is never going to give an autobid to the American, no matter how loudly Aresco crows about it.

After all, by doing so, they eliminate one at-large bid. They have no financial incentive to do that.

About the best we can hope for is:

1. Extra money from the playoff. Take us out of the G5 mix and pay us better and either:

2. A play-in game where the American champ plays the highest rated G4 champ for the right to the "G5 bid" or

3. An auto bid if the American champion is ranked more than 2 spots ahead of the nearest G4 champ. This exception would only apply to our champ.

This way, we either qualify for the game or have a chance to play for it ever year. The downside is that we forfeit an auto bid in the years our champ is 1 or 2 spots ahead of nearest G4 champ.

But before they would cut a deal like that for us, we need to win the G5 bid several times and perform well in the bowl games.

If they won't cut is a special deal, another option is to schedule a champ vs champ game vs. the MWC every year. Our two conferences are the best, and the committee would have a hard time snubbing the winner of that game.

Another option is to enter a sharing agreement with the MWC where we split the extra money from qualifying for the game if either one of our champs participate.

In your #3 above, that is exactly what will happen now. If AAC champ is above the G4, then they will be selected.

The only realistic scenario is that the Access bowl slot becomes the "de-facto" AAC bid in the minds of the selection committee. This is an achievable goal. This should be the goal, and will likely happen if the AAC is selected for at least the next 3 access bowls. Then it will be implanted in the minds of the selection committee that this spot should go to the AAC virtually all the time, barring any unforseen circumstances. It is highly critical that the AAC piggy back off last year's success and duplicate it this year in football. If this happens 3 more years in a row, it will become "our" spot.

There isn't going to be an upgrade on the access bowls slot. The best we can do to upgrade our situation is to gain a quality bowl as our number 1 bowl during the next bowl signing season 6 years from now. If we are able to land a Liberty/Texas/Belk level bowl as our #1 bowl, we will in effect have guaranteed ourselves a solid bowl slot vs a decent P5 opponents every year and an excellent #2 bowl many years. The other option is to increase the Miami Beach Bowl payout to the point that the MBB is the equal of bowls like the Liberty Bowl.

The other possibility is that the playoff expands to 8 teams and the top G5 gets an AQ slot in the 8-team playoff. I'd be happy with that outcome as we would have real viable access to the actual playoff. We would get that slot the majority of the time and I could live with that. It would certain make every season begin with far more hope than it currently does.
(This post was last modified: 08-06-2014 12:34 PM by Attackcoog.)
08-06-2014 12:28 PM
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Post: #4
RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
This season UH goes 11-1, makes an access bowl, while UCF, Cincy, and ECU finish 9-3.

Memphis, UC, UConn, SMU make the NCAAs and advance...Tulsa wins the NIT.

UConn wins the womens title.

BYU and Army decide to join football only...we invite WSU for olympic sports.

14 football/12 hoops

ESPN decides to double our money and give us more exposure.

Then I wake up from my dream.
08-06-2014 12:34 PM
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firmbizzle Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
Why should we have to "play in"?

If we can just put together the best collection of teams and get the bid every year then we are the defacto 6th conference. We should be doing everything to destroy the MWC and delegitimize the other 4 conferences.

A western division should have been added instead of Tulane & Tulsa.
08-06-2014 12:49 PM
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ECUPirated Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 12:49 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  Why should we have to "play in"?

If we can just put together the best collection of teams and get the bid every year then we are the defacto 6th conference. We should be doing everything to destroy the MWC and delegitimize the other 4 conferences.

A western division should have been added instead of Tulane & Tulsa.

Kind of sounds like everything the contract conferences and ESPfN have been doing to us that we (at least I) hate them for.

Our bottom-line is ...........

win OOC games
gain the access bowl
win championships in other sports with "legitimate playoffs / tournaments"
fill our stadiums (especially for broadcasted games)
etc. etc. etc.
08-06-2014 01:02 PM
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firmbizzle Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 01:02 PM)ECUPirated Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 12:49 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  Why should we have to "play in"?

If we can just put together the best collection of teams and get the bid every year then we are the defacto 6th conference. We should be doing everything to destroy the MWC and delegitimize the other 4 conferences.

A western division should have been added instead of Tulane & Tulsa.

Kind of sounds like everything the contract conferences and ESPfN have been doing to us that we (at least I) hate them for.

Yes!
And it has been working!
08-06-2014 01:27 PM
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 12:49 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  Why should we have to "play in"?

If we can just put together the best collection of teams and get the bid every year then we are the defacto 6th conference. We should be doing everything to destroy the MWC and delegitimize the other 4 conferences.

A western division should have been added instead of Tulane & Tulsa.

You're a joke.
08-06-2014 02:15 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 12:49 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  Why should we have to "play in"?

If we can just put together the best collection of teams and get the bid every year then we are the defacto 6th conference. We should be doing everything to destroy the MWC and delegitimize the other 4 conferences.

A western division should have been added instead of Tulane & Tulsa.

Just curious, what exactly do you think the AAC can do to "delegitimize" the others in the G5?
08-06-2014 02:16 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 01:02 PM)ECUPirated Wrote:  Our bottom-line is ...........

win OOC games
gain the access bowl
win championships in other sports with "legitimate playoffs / tournaments"
fill our stadiums (especially for broadcasted games)

+ grab good TV ratings
+ AAC champ ranked ahead of at least one P5 champ each season
+ don't lose any more conference members - and perhaps add a couple new members that help with the TV ratings and rankings points above
08-06-2014 03:15 PM
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firmbizzle Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 02:16 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 12:49 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  Why should we have to "play in"?

If we can just put together the best collection of teams and get the bid every year then we are the defacto 6th conference. We should be doing everything to destroy the MWC and delegitimize the other 4 conferences.

A western division should have been added instead of Tulane & Tulsa.

Just curious, what exactly do you think the AAC can do to "delegitimize" the others in the G5?

Attendance, top 25 rankings, television ratings, actually being on television, BCS bowl wins, NCAA championships, etc. Ya know the type of stuff that Tulane, Tulsa and the G4 don't bring. 07-coffee3
08-06-2014 03:24 PM
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ECUPirated Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 03:15 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 01:02 PM)ECUPirated Wrote:  Our bottom-line is ...........

win OOC games
gain the access bowl
win championships in other sports with "legitimate playoffs / tournaments"
fill our stadiums (especially for broadcasted games)

+ grab good TV ratings
+ AAC champ ranked ahead of at least one P5 champ each season
+ don't lose any more conference members - and perhaps add a couple new members that help with the TV ratings and rankings points above

As many have said and my personal feelings (although highly unlikely), go to 16.

West
BYU
Air Force
San Diego St (over Fresno because of basketball)
Houston
SMU
Tulsa
Navy (wanted out west anyway)
Tulane

East
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Temple
East Carolina
Army
Memphis
South Florida
Central Florida

That's a solid conference

Mostly west / east
All three academies (national)
Picks up 2 more solid basketball programs in SDSU/BYU
4 time zones covered

Accomplishes the goal to some degree that Firmbizzle suggests by degrading the MWC.
08-06-2014 03:29 PM
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KNIGHTTIME Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
Most probably won't like this, but we should work an agreement with the MWC and the P5 that our league champs meet the MWC for the access spot. Basically just do what the p5 want which excludes many that don't belong in FBS.
08-06-2014 03:40 PM
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YNot Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 03:29 PM)ECUPirated Wrote:  San Diego St (over Fresno because of basketball)

And because its a MUCH better market (TV households) and location (i.e., weather, beaches, NFL venue,...) and hosts a couple of bowl games (Holiday and Poinsettia Bowls) that the American could tap into.

If Las Vegas ever gets its 60K+ seat stadium, I would suggest that UNLV would be an excellent western expansion candidate as well. It has football potential (close to California recruiting and tons of money) and already has a terrific basketball program.....perhaps in conjunction with Northern Illinois to the east (on the fringe of the Chicago market) or some other eastward up-and-coming program (TBD).
08-06-2014 03:57 PM
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Redvolution Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 12:12 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 11:08 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  The P5 is never going to give an autobid to the American, no matter how loudly Aresco crows about it.

After all, by doing so, they eliminate one at-large bid. They have no financial incentive to do that.

About the best we can hope for is:

1. Extra money from the playoff. Take us out of the G5 mix and pay us better and either:

2. A play-in game where the American champ plays the highest rated G4 champ for the right to the "G5 bid" or

3. An auto bid if the American champion is ranked more than 2 spots ahead of the nearest G4 champ. This exception would only apply to our champ.

This way, we either qualify for the game or have a chance to play for it ever year. The downside is that we forfeit an auto bid in the years our champ is 1 or 2 spots ahead of nearest G4 champ.

But before they would cut a deal like that for us, we need to win the G5 bid several times and perform well in the bowl games.

If they won't cut is a special deal, another option is to schedule a champ vs champ game vs. the MWC every year. Our two conferences are the best, and the committee would have a hard time snubbing the winner of that game.

Another option is to enter a sharing agreement with the MWC where we split the extra money from qualifying for the game if either one of our champs participate.

In your #3 above, that is exactly what will happen now. If AAC champ is above the G4, then they will be selected.

The only realistic scenario is that the Access bowl slot becomes the "de-facto" AAC bid in the minds of the selection committee. This is an achievable goal. This should be the goal, and will likely happen if the AAC is selected for at least the next 3 access bowls. Then it will be implanted in the minds of the selection committee that this spot should go to the AAC virtually all the time, barring any unforseen circumstances. It is highly critical that the AAC piggy back off last year's success and duplicate it this year in football. If this happens 3 more years in a row, it will become "our" spot.

When I read the OP, I was thinking exactly this ^^^. The BCS system is gone, but has been replaced by what is essentially an identical system, but instead has completely eliminated the American's automatic bid, and given an extra two spots up for grabs for the MNC. I believe that this system is not a bad thing at all, because if our league is as great as we all like to say, then the "Access" Bowl slot can conceivably be ours for 3,4, maybe even 5 consecutive seasons. So if that happens, and we can have strong fan showings at these games, then that could be enough to nudge a corporation into reserving a permanent slot for our conference champion. That's what they've done for every other league. It's not as easy as it sounds, but I feel good about this group of teams to where it can happen. Boise has taken a step back, Fresno just lost a record breaking QB, and the rest of that league is borderline average to horrible. As long as we don't get the "Old Big East Syndrome" (everybody beating up on everybody), and have at least one, maybe two clean teams a year (0, 1, maybe 2 losses), then I think we can put a stranglehold on that spot and really impress corporate sponsors who are really controlling the system.
08-06-2014 04:03 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 03:24 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 02:16 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 12:49 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  Why should we have to "play in"?

If we can just put together the best collection of teams and get the bid every year then we are the defacto 6th conference. We should be doing everything to destroy the MWC and delegitimize the other 4 conferences.

A western division should have been added instead of Tulane & Tulsa.

Just curious, what exactly do you think the AAC can do to "delegitimize" the others in the G5?

Attendance, top 25 rankings, television ratings, actually being on television, BCS bowl wins, NCAA championships, etc. Ya know the type of stuff that Tulane, Tulsa and the G4 don't bring. 07-coffee3

The AAC has a few programs that have attendance issues too. Also right now no G5 conference has a team ranked in the coaches poll, though the AP might put one or two in. All of the other G5 conferences play on T.V. too. Some more than others. The WAC played in BCS games and they don't even sponsor football anymore. As for NCAA D1 or FBS championships,... Is their a program in the AAC that has won a legitimate the D1 or FBS National Title since SMU in 1935? Because that was 79 years ago, and there just aren't that many fans left that remember it.

Also, Tulsa and Tulane are good programs. You should be happy to have them in the AAC.

I don't want you to get the wrong idea. I'm not here to pimp my program to the AAC. C-USA West is the perfect fit for North Texas. SMU represents the Dallas market for the AAC, and I'm looking forward to UNT hosting the first game in our new decade long series this season. C-USA West currently has a great regional line-up for North Texas, and should be one of the most exciting divisions among the G5 conferences. I just don't think your plan to delegitimize all of the other G5 conferences is going to work.
(This post was last modified: 08-06-2014 04:38 PM by Side Show Joe.)
08-06-2014 04:38 PM
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 04:38 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 03:24 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 02:16 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 12:49 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  Why should we have to "play in"?

If we can just put together the best collection of teams and get the bid every year then we are the defacto 6th conference. We should be doing everything to destroy the MWC and delegitimize the other 4 conferences.

A western division should have been added instead of Tulane & Tulsa.

Just curious, what exactly do you think the AAC can do to "delegitimize" the others in the G5?

Attendance, top 25 rankings, television ratings, actually being on television, BCS bowl wins, NCAA championships, etc. Ya know the type of stuff that Tulane, Tulsa and the G4 don't bring. 07-coffee3

The AAC has a few programs that have attendance issues too. Also right now no G5 conference has a team ranked in the coaches poll, though the AP might put one or two in. All of the other G5 conferences play on T.V. too. Some more than others. The WAC played in BCS games and they don't even sponsor football anymore. As for NCAA D1 or FBS championships,... Is their a program in the AAC that has won a legitimate the D1 or FBS National Title since SMU in 1935? Because that was 79 years ago, and there just aren't that many fans left that remember it.

Also, Tulsa and Tulane are good programs. You should be happy to have them in the AAC.

I don't want you to get the wrong idea. I'm not here to pimp my program to the AAC. C-USA West is the perfect fit for North Texas. SMU represents the Dallas market for the AAC, and I'm looking forward to UNT hosting the first game in our new decade long series this season. C-USA West currently has a great regional line-up for North Texas, and should be one of the most exciting divisions among the G5 conferences. I just don't think your plan to delegitimize all of the other G5 conferences is going to work.
I know he changed his name but where has plummmeangreen gone?
08-06-2014 04:45 PM
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NBPirate Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
I really like BYU, San Diego State, and Colorado State, and UNLV for the western wing.
08-06-2014 04:55 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
(08-06-2014 04:45 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 04:38 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 03:24 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 02:16 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(08-06-2014 12:49 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  Why should we have to "play in"?

If we can just put together the best collection of teams and get the bid every year then we are the defacto 6th conference. We should be doing everything to destroy the MWC and delegitimize the other 4 conferences.

A western division should have been added instead of Tulane & Tulsa.

Just curious, what exactly do you think the AAC can do to "delegitimize" the others in the G5?

Attendance, top 25 rankings, television ratings, actually being on television, BCS bowl wins, NCAA championships, etc. Ya know the type of stuff that Tulane, Tulsa and the G4 don't bring. 07-coffee3

The AAC has a few programs that have attendance issues too. Also right now no G5 conference has a team ranked in the coaches poll, though the AP might put one or two in. All of the other G5 conferences play on T.V. too. Some more than others. The WAC played in BCS games and they don't even sponsor football anymore. As for NCAA D1 or FBS championships,... Is their a program in the AAC that has won a legitimate the D1 or FBS National Title since SMU in 1935? Because that was 79 years ago, and there just aren't that many fans left that remember it.

Also, Tulsa and Tulane are good programs. You should be happy to have them in the AAC.

I don't want you to get the wrong idea. I'm not here to pimp my program to the AAC. C-USA West is the perfect fit for North Texas. SMU represents the Dallas market for the AAC, and I'm looking forward to UNT hosting the first game in our new decade long series this season. C-USA West currently has a great regional line-up for North Texas, and should be one of the most exciting divisions among the G5 conferences. I just don't think your plan to delegitimize all of the other G5 conferences is going to work.
I know he changed his name but where has plummmeangreen gone?

He doesn't post on this board very often. He's mostly on the GoMeanGreen board. If you need to contact him, I can let him know.
08-06-2014 05:36 PM
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Michael in Raleigh Offline
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RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
One tough thing for the AAC is that it is pretty likely to better, top to bottom, than the MWC, the SB, C-USA, and the MAC, pretty much year in, year out. There's just more depth. But because of that depth, combined with the toughest non-conference scheduling of all 10 conferences, AAC champions often may not have better records than the champions of the other four leagues.

This year, for instance, let's say Cincinnati goes 10-2, with an 8ish-point loss to 10-2 Ohio State and a field goal loss to, hypothetically, a third-place, 9-3 ECU but wins over everyone else, most of them convincing. (Change the names to Houston or UCF; it's just an example.) They'd be a really good team, certainly having beaten some good teams but not quite as many as champions of the P5 conferences. Meanwhile, regardless of how bad most of the MWC, C-USA, or the Sun Belt is, UL Lafayette, or Marshall, or Boise State/Utah State/Fresno could easily go 11-1 or even 12-0, thanks to a weaker schedule. Will the selection committee favor the 11-1/12-0 teams that didn't face Cincinnati's tougher schedule because of their fewer number of blemishes on the record, or will Cincy's body of work carry more weight?

Being the de facto sixth power conference, if defined exclusively by getting an annual access bowl slot, will prove very, very difficult. The league champion would have to either sweep its conference schedule (including the CCG) and only lose one non-conference game, or sweep a very difficult non-conference schedule and have only one game's margin of error in league play. No wonder the other four leagues are thrilled with the new system while the American is, well, not so much.
(This post was last modified: 08-06-2014 06:53 PM by Michael in Raleigh.)
08-06-2014 06:52 PM
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