RE: Realistic upgrade scenario
One tough thing for the AAC is that it is pretty likely to better, top to bottom, than the MWC, the SB, C-USA, and the MAC, pretty much year in, year out. There's just more depth. But because of that depth, combined with the toughest non-conference scheduling of all 10 conferences, AAC champions often may not have better records than the champions of the other four leagues.
This year, for instance, let's say Cincinnati goes 10-2, with an 8ish-point loss to 10-2 Ohio State and a field goal loss to, hypothetically, a third-place, 9-3 ECU but wins over everyone else, most of them convincing. (Change the names to Houston or UCF; it's just an example.) They'd be a really good team, certainly having beaten some good teams but not quite as many as champions of the P5 conferences. Meanwhile, regardless of how bad most of the MWC, C-USA, or the Sun Belt is, UL Lafayette, or Marshall, or Boise State/Utah State/Fresno could easily go 11-1 or even 12-0, thanks to a weaker schedule. Will the selection committee favor the 11-1/12-0 teams that didn't face Cincinnati's tougher schedule because of their fewer number of blemishes on the record, or will Cincy's body of work carry more weight?
Being the de facto sixth power conference, if defined exclusively by getting an annual access bowl slot, will prove very, very difficult. The league champion would have to either sweep its conference schedule (including the CCG) and only lose one non-conference game, or sweep a very difficult non-conference schedule and have only one game's margin of error in league play. No wonder the other four leagues are thrilled with the new system while the American is, well, not so much.
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