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allthatyoucantleavebehind Offline
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Be the CFP committee: 1999
Connelly's original article
http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/20...-committee

BCS standings for your consideration
http://www.footballfoundation.org/Progra...hives.aspx

Mess grade (how much controversy would exist)—B

FSU, VaTech, Nebraska, Alabama. I’m with Connelly on this one. Conference championships mean something. Conference championship games mean something. That’s the message of the CFP. (It is odd that he doesn’t mention Wisconsin though—Big Ten champ, ranked highly in human polls—two losses just like Alabama and Tennessee).
07-28-2014 12:31 AM
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templefootballfan Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
I seen some strange picks by the BB committee
BB committee has flopped on a lot of things
SOS, RPI, conf record, wins, vs top 50
but they never flop on TV market
These 1st 2 yrs with Kansas St will show u how much TV markets [ESPN]
will effect selections
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2014 06:36 AM by templefootballfan.)
07-28-2014 02:05 AM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
99 was pretty easy..
FSU
VT
Nebraska
Alabama

Wisconsin had a terrible SOS that year. Didn't play Penn St or Illinois(both top 25 teams) in conference play. OOC Schedule was 0-11 Ball St, FCS Murray St, and 3-8 Cincy. Meanwhile Alabama had to play as crossover games Florida and Tennessee(both top 10 teams), and then Florida again in the SEC title game. Oh, and 3 7 win teams ooc. Alabama #1 SOS that year, Wisconsin #75. So very easy.

Kansas St a non factor regardless of TV. 10-1 but non conference champion. Mediocre schedule(#63).
07-28-2014 07:31 AM
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orangefan Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
1-2-3 are easy based on the records and rankings. FSU and VT are 1-2, both undefeated and conference champs. #3 Nebraska is 11-1 and a conference champ.

Picking 4 is the challenge. # 4 Bama is 10-2 and SEC champ. #5 Tennessee is 9-2 and SEC East Division runner up. #6 KSU is 10-1 and Big 12 North Division runner up. #7 Wisconsin is 9-2 and Big Ten champion.

Tennessee beat Bama, but Bama is the conference champion. Edge to Bama.

KSU has a better record than Bama, but is ranked two slots behind Bama. It appears that this ranking may be the result of its decisive late season loss to Nebraska, whereas Bama's losses were earlier in the year. Agree or disagree, timing of losses matters to the pollsters, as does the decisiveness of a loss. Edge to Bama.

Wisconsin has the same number of losses as Bama. The higher BCS ranking would appear to give Bama the edge. However, Wisconsin was actually ranked #4 in the AP poll, with Bama 5th. (K-state was 7th behind Tennessee).

I think the only hard call is between Wisconsin and Bama. Edge to Bama based on the BCS rankings (4 vs 7).
07-28-2014 08:04 AM
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1845 Bear Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
How does EVERYONE ignore the last remaining unbeaten?

FSU & VT were easy as major conference unbeatens. Nebraska as #3 is very easy as they are a 1 loss team that beat their 1 loss in a rematch so technically they defeated every team on their schedule.

Last pick is tougher and the article missed a team that deserves consideration. You have unbeaten Marshall, a couple 2-loss league champs (Bama, Wisconsin) and one loss Kansas State that did not win it's own division and was blown out against the Huskers.

I can't justify giving a 2 loss major conference team that had their shot and spit the bit twice a spot and exclude an unbeaten. Marshall is #4 for me as you need to give an unbeaten a chance in the absence of P5 teams with similar records. I could see a really strong 1 loss P5 team jump a low SOS unbeaten but not here where each of Wisky and Bama have two losses. Thundering Herd are IN.
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2014 08:14 AM by 1845 Bear.)
07-28-2014 08:13 AM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 08:04 AM)orangefan Wrote:  1-2-3 are easy based on the records and rankings. FSU and VT are 1-2, both undefeated and conference champs. #3 Nebraska is 11-1 and a conference champ.

Picking 4 is the challenge. # 4 Bama is 10-2 and SEC champ. #5 Tennessee is 9-2 and SEC East Division runner up. #6 KSU is 10-1 and Big 12 North Division runner up. #7 Wisconsin is 9-2 and Big Ten champion.

Tennessee beat Bama, but Bama is the conference champion. Edge to Bama.

KSU has a better record than Bama, but is ranked two slots behind Bama. It appears that this ranking may be the result of its decisive late season loss to Nebraska, whereas Bama's losses were earlier in the year. Agree or disagree, timing of losses matters to the pollsters, as does the decisiveness of a loss. Edge to Bama.

Wisconsin has the same number of losses as Bama. The higher BCS ranking would appear to give Bama the edge. However, Wisconsin was actually ranked #4 in the AP poll, with Bama 5th. (K-state was 7th behind Tennessee).

I think the only hard call is between Wisconsin and Bama. Edge to Bama based on the BCS rankings (4 vs 7).

Wisconsin/Bama isn't even close. Bama had the #1 SOS that year. Wisconsin was #75.. Committee I think would not be able to overlook what Wisconsin's OOC schedule was. Murray St, Ball St, and Cincy. Alabama had 3 7 win teams OOC. Houston, La Tech, and Southern Miss.
07-28-2014 08:16 AM
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
Despite winning it, I think Marshall is damaged by their performance in the MAC title game and misses out. One of the top 4 teams in the nation isn't trailing WMU by 3 TDs.
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2014 08:18 AM by Hokie4Skins.)
07-28-2014 08:18 AM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 08:13 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  How does EVERYONE ignore the last remaining unbeaten?

FSU & VT were easy as major conference unbeatens. Nebraska as #3 is very easy as they are a 1 loss team that beat their 1 loss in a rematch so technically they defeated every team on their schedule.

Last pick is tougher and the article missed a team that deserves consideration. You have unbeaten Marshall, a couple 2-loss league champs (Bama, Wisconsin) and one loss Kansas State that did not win it's own division and was blown out against the Huskers.

I can't justify giving a 2 loss major conference team that had their shot and spit the bit twice a spot and exclude an unbeaten. Marshall is #4 for me as you need to give an unbeaten a chance in the absence of P5 teams with similar records. I could see a really strong 1 loss P5 team jump a low SOS unbeaten but not here where each of Wisky and Bama have two losses. Thundering Herd are IN.

Marshall just didn't have the schedule.
07-28-2014 08:18 AM
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1845 Bear Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 08:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:13 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  How does EVERYONE ignore the last remaining unbeaten?

FSU & VT were easy as major conference unbeatens. Nebraska as #3 is very easy as they are a 1 loss team that beat their 1 loss in a rematch so technically they defeated every team on their schedule.

Last pick is tougher and the article missed a team that deserves consideration. You have unbeaten Marshall, a couple 2-loss league champs (Bama, Wisconsin) and one loss Kansas State that did not win it's own division and was blown out against the Huskers.

I can't justify giving a 2 loss major conference team that had their shot and spit the bit twice a spot and exclude an unbeaten. Marshall is #4 for me as you need to give an unbeaten a chance in the absence of P5 teams with similar records. I could see a really strong 1 loss P5 team jump a low SOS unbeaten but not here where each of Wisky and Bama have two losses. Thundering Herd are IN.

Marshall just didn't have the schedule.

Those other two didn't have the wins.

Unless you can say that the other contenders for the spot had pretty good resumes (2 losses isn't very good) it's hard for me to exclude an unbeaten.

You have 3 teams that beat everyone on their schedule and the choice between an unbeaten or a 2 loss team. Unlike 2007 it's a clear dropoff from #3 to #4 and what more can you ask that team to do?
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2014 08:27 AM by 1845 Bear.)
07-28-2014 08:25 AM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 08:25 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:13 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  How does EVERYONE ignore the last remaining unbeaten?

FSU & VT were easy as major conference unbeatens. Nebraska as #3 is very easy as they are a 1 loss team that beat their 1 loss in a rematch so technically they defeated every team on their schedule.

Last pick is tougher and the article missed a team that deserves consideration. You have unbeaten Marshall, a couple 2-loss league champs (Bama, Wisconsin) and one loss Kansas State that did not win it's own division and was blown out against the Huskers.

I can't justify giving a 2 loss major conference team that had their shot and spit the bit twice a spot and exclude an unbeaten. Marshall is #4 for me as you need to give an unbeaten a chance in the absence of P5 teams with similar records. I could see a really strong 1 loss P5 team jump a low SOS unbeaten but not here where each of Wisky and Bama have two losses. Thundering Herd are IN.

Marshall just didn't have the schedule.

Those other two didn't have the wins.

Unless you can say that the other contenders for the spot had pretty good resumes (2 losses isn't very good) it's hard for me to exclude an unbeaten.

You have 3 teams that beat everyone on their schedule and the choice between an unbeaten or a 2 loss team. Unlike 2007 it's a clear dropoff from #3 to #4 and what more can you ask that team to do?

Alabama had 2 wins over Florida and a win over #16 Southern Miss. Marshall had 1 top 70 win. Alabama didn't play anyone that year worse than Marshall's 2nd best win.
07-28-2014 08:29 AM
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1845 Bear Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 08:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:25 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:13 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  How does EVERYONE ignore the last remaining unbeaten?

FSU & VT were easy as major conference unbeatens. Nebraska as #3 is very easy as they are a 1 loss team that beat their 1 loss in a rematch so technically they defeated every team on their schedule.

Last pick is tougher and the article missed a team that deserves consideration. You have unbeaten Marshall, a couple 2-loss league champs (Bama, Wisconsin) and one loss Kansas State that did not win it's own division and was blown out against the Huskers.

I can't justify giving a 2 loss major conference team that had their shot and spit the bit twice a spot and exclude an unbeaten. Marshall is #4 for me as you need to give an unbeaten a chance in the absence of P5 teams with similar records. I could see a really strong 1 loss P5 team jump a low SOS unbeaten but not here where each of Wisky and Bama have two losses. Thundering Herd are IN.

Marshall just didn't have the schedule.

Those other two didn't have the wins.

Unless you can say that the other contenders for the spot had pretty good resumes (2 losses isn't very good) it's hard for me to exclude an unbeaten.

You have 3 teams that beat everyone on their schedule and the choice between an unbeaten or a 2 loss team. Unlike 2007 it's a clear dropoff from #3 to #4 and what more can you ask that team to do?

Alabama had 2 wins over Florida and a win over #16 Southern Miss. Marshall had 1 top 70 win. Alabama didn't play anyone that year worse than Marshall's 2nd best win.

If Marshall had 1 loss and Bama had 3 I would agree but on principle I have an extremely hard time excluding an unbeaten team. What more can a team do but win all of it's games?

This isn't for one of two spots, this is for one of 4. If you are unbeaten you should get a shot unless a team is within 1 loss of you and has some exponentially better schedule.
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2014 08:35 AM by 1845 Bear.)
07-28-2014 08:34 AM
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 08:34 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:25 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:13 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  How does EVERYONE ignore the last remaining unbeaten?

FSU & VT were easy as major conference unbeatens. Nebraska as #3 is very easy as they are a 1 loss team that beat their 1 loss in a rematch so technically they defeated every team on their schedule.

Last pick is tougher and the article missed a team that deserves consideration. You have unbeaten Marshall, a couple 2-loss league champs (Bama, Wisconsin) and one loss Kansas State that did not win it's own division and was blown out against the Huskers.

I can't justify giving a 2 loss major conference team that had their shot and spit the bit twice a spot and exclude an unbeaten. Marshall is #4 for me as you need to give an unbeaten a chance in the absence of P5 teams with similar records. I could see a really strong 1 loss P5 team jump a low SOS unbeaten but not here where each of Wisky and Bama have two losses. Thundering Herd are IN.

Marshall just didn't have the schedule.

Those other two didn't have the wins.

Unless you can say that the other contenders for the spot had pretty good resumes (2 losses isn't very good) it's hard for me to exclude an unbeaten.

You have 3 teams that beat everyone on their schedule and the choice between an unbeaten or a 2 loss team. Unlike 2007 it's a clear dropoff from #3 to #4 and what more can you ask that team to do?

Alabama had 2 wins over Florida and a win over #16 Southern Miss. Marshall had 1 top 70 win. Alabama didn't play anyone that year worse than Marshall's 2nd best win.

If Marshall had 1 loss and Bama had 3 I would agree but on principle I have an extremely hard time excluding an unbeaten team. What more can a team do but win all of it's games?

This isn't for one of two spots, this is for one of 4. If you are unbeaten you should get a shot unless a team is within 1 loss of you and has some exponentially better schedule.

Maybe schedule a bit better. Alabama's worst win of the year was better than all but 1 of Marshall's wins.
07-28-2014 08:37 AM
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1845 Bear Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 08:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:34 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:25 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Marshall just didn't have the schedule.

Those other two didn't have the wins.

Unless you can say that the other contenders for the spot had pretty good resumes (2 losses isn't very good) it's hard for me to exclude an unbeaten.

You have 3 teams that beat everyone on their schedule and the choice between an unbeaten or a 2 loss team. Unlike 2007 it's a clear dropoff from #3 to #4 and what more can you ask that team to do?

Alabama had 2 wins over Florida and a win over #16 Southern Miss. Marshall had 1 top 70 win. Alabama didn't play anyone that year worse than Marshall's 2nd best win.

If Marshall had 1 loss and Bama had 3 I would agree but on principle I have an extremely hard time excluding an unbeaten team. What more can a team do but win all of it's games?

This isn't for one of two spots, this is for one of 4. If you are unbeaten you should get a shot unless a team is within 1 loss of you and has some exponentially better schedule.

Maybe schedule a bit better. Alabama's worst win of the year was better than all but 1 of Marshall's wins.

Bama lost twice. It takes unusual circumstances for me to jump a team with 2 black eyes over a perfect record.
07-28-2014 08:45 AM
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 08:45 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:34 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:25 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  Those other two didn't have the wins.

Unless you can say that the other contenders for the spot had pretty good resumes (2 losses isn't very good) it's hard for me to exclude an unbeaten.

You have 3 teams that beat everyone on their schedule and the choice between an unbeaten or a 2 loss team. Unlike 2007 it's a clear dropoff from #3 to #4 and what more can you ask that team to do?

Alabama had 2 wins over Florida and a win over #16 Southern Miss. Marshall had 1 top 70 win. Alabama didn't play anyone that year worse than Marshall's 2nd best win.

If Marshall had 1 loss and Bama had 3 I would agree but on principle I have an extremely hard time excluding an unbeaten team. What more can a team do but win all of it's games?

This isn't for one of two spots, this is for one of 4. If you are unbeaten you should get a shot unless a team is within 1 loss of you and has some exponentially better schedule.

Maybe schedule a bit better. Alabama's worst win of the year was better than all but 1 of Marshall's wins.

Bama lost twice. It takes unusual circumstances for me to jump a team with 2 black eyes over a perfect record.

Would you put 2007 Hawaii in the playoff?
07-28-2014 08:50 AM
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allthatyoucantleavebehind Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 08:04 AM)orangefan Wrote:  1-2-3 are easy based on the records and rankings. FSU and VT are 1-2, both undefeated and conference champs. #3 Nebraska is 11-1 and a conference champ.

Picking 4 is the challenge. # 4 Bama is 10-2 and SEC champ. #5 Tennessee is 9-2 and SEC East Division runner up. #6 KSU is 10-1 and Big 12 North Division runner up. #7 Wisconsin is 9-2 and Big Ten champion.

Tennessee beat Bama, but Bama is the conference champion. Edge to Bama.

KSU has a better record than Bama, but is ranked two slots behind Bama. It appears that this ranking may be the result of its decisive late season loss to Nebraska, whereas Bama's losses were earlier in the year. Agree or disagree, timing of losses matters to the pollsters, as does the decisiveness of a loss. Edge to Bama.

Wisconsin has the same number of losses as Bama. The higher BCS ranking would appear to give Bama the edge. However, Wisconsin was actually ranked #4 in the AP poll, with Bama 5th. (K-state was 7th behind Tennessee).

I think the only hard call is between Wisconsin and Bama. Edge to Bama based on the BCS rankings (4 vs 7).

Well said. Two thoughts...how will the public opinion flavor the committee's opinions with the CFP? Wisconsin is #4 in 1999. The BCS poll--and maybe the committee--drops them all the way to #7...what does the public say/feel about that?

Is this the reason for the committee meeting weekly through the last 6 weeks? To counter-balance this public opinion? AP polls in October say that (random team A) is #3...and then the committee in the end of October for the first CFP rankings says they are #9. Do the AP pollsters then bend and drop them (even if winning) to #5 or 6 in the AP poll, reflecting that reaction? And, likewise, does the committee recognize the public's staunchness/liking and maybe reward them with a bump up to #7 or #8 in the next CFP rankings? I think it's going to be a fluid, give-and-take relationship.

Wisconsin is another prime example (listen up, Big 12 people!) of how the CCG will help. If the Big Ten had a title game--like the SEC did that year--Wisconsin would have played top-10 Michigan...and winning that game would not have given them a late-season showcase (a chance to prove their #4 ranking in the human polls) but also helped their overall SOS (which sorely needed it).
07-28-2014 09:05 AM
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
Yeah, 1999 would be a prime example of CCG helping big time...

entering CCG week-
Florida 4
Tennessee 5
Kansas St 6
Alabama 7
Wisconsin 8

Alabama gets to play #4 Florida.... Easy to see how they would jump Tennessee and Kansas St. Wisconsin only got ahead of Florida not playing. They would have made it very close if they had gotten to play Michigan.
07-28-2014 09:10 AM
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allthatyoucantleavebehind Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 08:34 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  This isn't for one of two spots, this is for one of 4. If you are unbeaten you should get a shot unless a team is within 1 loss of you and has some exponentially better schedule.

Ay, there's the rub.

What does this mean? Forty spots higher...fifty...sixty?

The committee will need to define this. If you play the 25th schedule and lose twice...is that better than playing the 75th schedule and losing none? It would be interesting to go back through Power 5 vs. Second 5 bowl games, comparing their SOS and records...and see what the results were?

Undefeated Cincy getting spanked by 12-1 Florida comes to mind in 2009.
Undefeated Hawaii getting spanked by 10-2 Georgia comes to mind in 2007.
On the other hand, undefeated Boise State eked by 11-2 Oklahoma in 2006...but then again, the Sooners were ranked #10 and weren't exactly a playoff-worthy team...
07-28-2014 09:22 AM
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1845 Bear Offline
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 08:50 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:45 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:34 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:29 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Alabama had 2 wins over Florida and a win over #16 Southern Miss. Marshall had 1 top 70 win. Alabama didn't play anyone that year worse than Marshall's 2nd best win.

If Marshall had 1 loss and Bama had 3 I would agree but on principle I have an extremely hard time excluding an unbeaten team. What more can a team do but win all of it's games?

This isn't for one of two spots, this is for one of 4. If you are unbeaten you should get a shot unless a team is within 1 loss of you and has some exponentially better schedule.

Maybe schedule a bit better. Alabama's worst win of the year was better than all but 1 of Marshall's wins.

Bama lost twice. It takes unusual circumstances for me to jump a team with 2 black eyes over a perfect record.

Would you put 2007 Hawaii in the playoff?

I go back and forth on that one honestly. 2007 is such a mess but the fact Hawaii literally played an SOS that even after the Sugar Bowl being counted for them isn't in the top 130 does make it a little different. Marshall (assuming a BCS opponent like Michigan instead of the Motor City Bowl) would have been ranked higher than they were.

Hawaii's SOS was so bad that it's significantly worse than anything we saw from Boise's teams, Marshall, Tulane, Nevada, Utah, TCU, etc. It literally is an FCS schedule. Playing a schedule that 2006 Boise looks at and says "that sucks!" qualifies as an unusual circumstance.

Seriously compare the SOS...
2007 Hawaii- 132nd WITH the bowl factored in


2004 Utah- 67th (Post bowl)
2004 Boise- 78th (Post bowl)
2006 Boise- 90th (post bowl)
2008 Utah- 56th (post bowl)
2008 Boise- 94th (Post Bowl)
2009 TCU- 60th (Post Bowl)
2009 Boise- 94th (Post Bowl)
2010 TCU- 76th (Post Bowl)
1999 Marshall - 111th BEFORE the bowl game.


Had they been unbeaten with at least a schedule on par with these other teams I could justify Hawaii but everyone has a point at which it doesn't make sense and an SOS that is likely 140+ prior to UGA is that point for me.

Ohio State gets in easy as the only major conference champ with 1 loss.
LSU and Oklahoma had two narrow losses and good SOS and did not lose to a bad team.

Last spot is between an army of candidates.

USC- 2 losses by a single score but lost to a horrible Stanford team which casts their spot into doubt.

WVU lost 2 narrow games but like USC one was to a bad team. Tough to decide between a slightly worse SOS than USC or the fact their 2nd loss was without Pat White.

Mizzou- Probably eliminated due to 2nd loss to Oklahoma. Good SOS and beat KU.

UGA and VT- 2 losses but got blown out in one of them.

Kansas- 1 loss P5 team with a mediocre schedule which was 74th after the bowl.

Hawaii's unbeaten record vs an FCS schedule


My last pick is probably WVU for the simple fact Pat White did not play.

Marshall's SOS was light but Hawaii's was another universe bad.
07-28-2014 09:28 AM
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 09:22 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:34 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  This isn't for one of two spots, this is for one of 4. If you are unbeaten you should get a shot unless a team is within 1 loss of you and has some exponentially better schedule.

Ay, there's the rub.

What does this mean? Forty spots higher...fifty...sixty?

The committee will need to define this. If you play the 25th schedule and lose twice...is that better than playing the 75th schedule and losing none? It would be interesting to go back through Power 5 vs. Second 5 bowl games, comparing their SOS and records...and see what the results were?

Undefeated Cincy getting spanked by 12-1 Florida comes to mind in 2009.
Undefeated Hawaii getting spanked by 10-2 Georgia comes to mind in 2007.
On the other hand, undefeated Boise State eked by 11-2 Oklahoma in 2006...but then again, the Sooners were ranked #10 and weren't exactly a playoff-worthy team...

Utah beating Alabama also comes to mind. I am not saying there isn't a trend but you have to have a pretty convincing argument to leapfrog a team with 2 fewer losses and that 99 Bama team lost a game by double digits.

As for where my dividing line is on unbeaten vs 1 loss, it takes a combination of a 30-40+ SOS gap and a 1 loss team without any of the blowout losses or other easy to use elimination criteria along with serious questions about the unbeaten. The hurdle gets higher for a 2 loss team. I would jump a 1 loss team with a good resume over Marshall 1999 but two losses is hard unless it's a historically bad SOS like 2007 Hawaii where the team not only had trouble with several games but also was over 110 spots behind multiple competitors for the playoff spot.
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2014 09:35 AM by 1845 Bear.)
07-28-2014 09:30 AM
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RE: Be the CFP committee: 1999
(07-28-2014 08:16 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(07-28-2014 08:04 AM)orangefan Wrote:  1-2-3 are easy based on the records and rankings. FSU and VT are 1-2, both undefeated and conference champs. #3 Nebraska is 11-1 and a conference champ.

Picking 4 is the challenge. # 4 Bama is 10-2 and SEC champ. #5 Tennessee is 9-2 and SEC East Division runner up. #6 KSU is 10-1 and Big 12 North Division runner up. #7 Wisconsin is 9-2 and Big Ten champion.

Tennessee beat Bama, but Bama is the conference champion. Edge to Bama.

KSU has a better record than Bama, but is ranked two slots behind Bama. It appears that this ranking may be the result of its decisive late season loss to Nebraska, whereas Bama's losses were earlier in the year. Agree or disagree, timing of losses matters to the pollsters, as does the decisiveness of a loss. Edge to Bama.

Wisconsin has the same number of losses as Bama. The higher BCS ranking would appear to give Bama the edge. However, Wisconsin was actually ranked #4 in the AP poll, with Bama 5th. (K-state was 7th behind Tennessee).

I think the only hard call is between Wisconsin and Bama. Edge to Bama based on the BCS rankings (4 vs 7).

Wisconsin/Bama isn't even close. Bama had the #1 SOS that year. Wisconsin was #75.. Committee I think would not be able to overlook what Wisconsin's OOC schedule was. Murray St, Ball St, and Cincy. Alabama had 3 7 win teams OOC. Houston, La Tech, and Southern Miss.

I'll give you the first three, then I break the tie between Bama and Wisconsin with a coin flip. I don't place much emphasis on OOC schedules, and in this case both teams just beat teams they were supposed to beat OOC.

And fair or not, does anybody think Marshall would have beaten any of the top ten teams that year (much less a top four team)?
07-28-2014 10:28 AM
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