Not sure where he gets this information from; this seems like information that wouldn't be easy to find. At any rate, Phil's theory is that teams that lost 32 or more starts (not starters, mind you) over the year were destined to have the same or better record the following year. Another one of his turnaround indicators is defined as several close losses indicates a better year coming (think South Alabama), where several close wins indicates a worse year overall. Double digit turnovers lost also indicates that the team will not have as much bad luck the next time around and that teams that had very good luck would not have a repeat of the same fortune. I find those ideas fascinating and wonder if they'll hold true for 2014.

Of note, Troy ranked only behind California in defensive starts lost (30) over the season. We have got to do a better job at keeping our players healthy, winning the close games (ULL, ASU), and limiting turnovers (all games). We were bad in all three areas. Hoping for a better 2014 outing.

http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2014/JUN...ne16a.html

Don't know how valid a measure that is anyways, but Georgia Southern's # of missed defensive starts (by the qualifications noted) isn't anywhere close to accurate. We had two starting linebackers who were slated to start in 2013 that didn't play a single game due to rehabbing injuries, so that alone would have accounted for 22 defensive starts missed. Just between our db's we had another five games missed, at least. Offensively we're listed with 17 and that is closer to accurate, but still low.

(07-11-2014 05:31 PM)Eagle22 Wrote:  Don't know how valid a measure that is anyways, but Georgia Southern's # of missed defensive starts (by the qualifications noted) isn't anywhere close to accurate. We had two starting linebackers who were slated to start in 2013 that didn't play a single game due to rehabbing injuries, so that alone would have accounted for 22 defensive starts missed. Just between our db's we had another five games missed, at least. Offensively we're listed with 17 and that is closer to accurate, but still low.

Interesting is that Phil has USA as losing 19 on offense, and only 1 start on defense. USA lead the league in defense but quite a bit. Not many know what. They were very good on defense last season. Being healthy was likely a huge part of that performance.

This only capture losses during the actual season? Because he doesn't seem to capture USA's losses on defense before the season started.

(07-11-2014 05:36 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  This only capture losses during the actual season? Because he doesn't seem to capture USA's losses on defense before the season started.

Troy always has two or three guys expected to start or play big roles on defense become ineligible right before the season starts. I don't believe he lists pre-season losses in this list. Though, he does count any kind of loss in his injury lists. Transfers, Grade Issues, Injuries, etc. It's all the same on his injuries lists.

40 for App State. I knew we lost some people but that is horrendous.

(07-11-2014 05:36 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  This only capture losses during the actual season? Because he doesn't seem to capture USA's losses on defense before the season started.

It's definitely an inexact science. USA had five interior defensive linemen that rotated on a nearly equal basis and one of them was lost for the season after the second game. He doesn't count as a lost starter, but his value was right up there with the two that were usually listed.

Yeah that's laughably low for Georgia Southern.

Dominique Swope and and Patrick Flowe alone had more than 17 total lost starts.

App had four key players that contributed to the 40:

Jackson - QB - 5, Sr. will not be a factor

Price - WR - 8, kicked off team, no factor for 2014

Blair - DL - 12, injured in August camp, will likely be a captain.

Small - DL - 7, will likely play 50% of NT snaps, may start

Sumler - WR - 11, will be 1st or 2nd option at WR

Looks like Blair did count towards the 40 actually.

Idaho is number one with 55 it helps experience for this year.
Our schedule is the biggest swing also from 55th to 108 .
Also 17 starters return and second year for the head coach.

Reasons to be optimistic about improvement.
I think 2015 we will be even better but play Auburn and USC.