(07-10-2014 08:55 PM)Tigersmoke Wrote:  Ken d I really think you come up with some crazy useless stuff. You're pushing an empty agenda though, you leave out better teams for truly worthless teams. I don't get you at all.hahaha!!

PEAK ATTENDANCE (minimum 30K) since 2005

EAST

53,200 - USF
50,000 - ECU
44,000 - UCF
40,800 - Navy
40,000 - UConn
40,000 - Memphis
35,100 - Cincinnati
34,000 - Army
30,700 - Southern Miss
30,000 - Marshall

WEST

64,500 - BYU
47,900 - UTEP
43,500 - Hawaii
40,100 - Air Force
39,900 - San Diego State
37,900 - Fresno State
35,400 - Boise State
31,700 - Houston

(07-11-2014 07:29 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(07-10-2014 08:55 PM)Tigersmoke Wrote:  Ken d I really think you come up with some crazy useless stuff. You're pushing an empty agenda though, you leave out better teams for truly worthless teams. I don't get you at all.hahaha!!

PEAK ATTENDANCE (minimum 30K) since 2005

EAST

53,200 - USF
50,000 - ECU
44,000 - UCF
40,800 - Navy
40,000 - UConn
40,000 - Memphis
35,100 - Cincinnati
34,000 - Army
30,700 - Southern Miss
30,000 - Marshall

WEST

64,500 - BYU
47,900 - UTEP
43,500 - Hawaii
40,100 - Air Force
39,900 - San Diego State
37,900 - Fresno State
35,400 - Boise State
31,700 - Houston

Could you compare that to capacity?

Speaking for UH I know we would have averaged considerably more had we had a capacity above roughly 32k (32 was standing room only).

Raw numbers only tell half the story.

(07-11-2014 08:14 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  

(07-11-2014 07:29 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(07-10-2014 08:55 PM)Tigersmoke Wrote:  Ken d I really think you come up with some crazy useless stuff. You're pushing an empty agenda though, you leave out better teams for truly worthless teams. I don't get you at all.hahaha!!

PEAK ATTENDANCE (minimum 30K) since 2005

EAST

53,200 - USF
50,000 - ECU
44,000 - UCF
40,800 - Navy
40,000 - UConn
40,000 - Memphis
35,100 - Cincinnati
34,000 - Army
30,700 - Southern Miss
30,000 - Marshall

WEST

64,500 - BYU
47,900 - UTEP
43,500 - Hawaii
40,100 - Air Force
39,900 - San Diego State
37,900 - Fresno State
35,400 - Boise State
31,700 - Houston

Could you compare that to capacity?

Speaking for UH I know we would have averaged considerably more had we had a capacity above roughly 32k (32 was standing room only).

Raw numbers only tell half the story.

I don't have the time to compare it to capacity, but normally if the demand is there, universities expand existing their stadium, build a new bigger stadium, or move to a larger existing stadium to accommodate the demand.

Home attendance is rarely limited by capacity for very long if the demand is there.

(07-11-2014 10:00 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  I don't have the time to compare it to capacity, but normally if the demand is there, universities expand existing their stadium, build a new bigger stadium, or move to a larger existing stadium to accommodate the demand.

Home attendance is rarely limited by capacity for very long if the demand is there.

Agreed, seems like we have done/are doing that......

Just pointing out that raw numbers don't tell the entire story.

As someone else pointed out looking at a box score and seeing say 32k for a UH game or 32k for a Bama game (not that that would ever happen...) but looking at capacity you can see that demand exceeds supply in one case and not so much in the other.

(07-10-2014 08:55 PM)Tigersmoke Wrote:  Ken d I really think you come up with some crazy useless stuff. You're pushing an empty agenda though, you leave out better teams for truly worthless teams. I don't get you at all.hahaha!!

Thanks for your input. Your opinion means a lot to me. Would you help me by explaining what you think my agenda might be?

(07-11-2014 10:00 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(07-11-2014 08:14 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  

(07-11-2014 07:29 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(07-10-2014 08:55 PM)Tigersmoke Wrote:  Ken d I really think you come up with some crazy useless stuff. You're pushing an empty agenda though, you leave out better teams for truly worthless teams. I don't get you at all.hahaha!!

PEAK ATTENDANCE (minimum 30K) since 2005

EAST

53,200 - USF
50,000 - ECU
44,000 - UCF
40,800 - Navy
40,000 - UConn
40,000 - Memphis
35,100 - Cincinnati
34,000 - Army
30,700 - Southern Miss
30,000 - Marshall

WEST

64,500 - BYU
47,900 - UTEP
43,500 - Hawaii
40,100 - Air Force
39,900 - San Diego State
37,900 - Fresno State
35,400 - Boise State
31,700 - Houston

Could you compare that to capacity?

Speaking for UH I know we would have averaged considerably more had we had a capacity above roughly 32k (32 was standing room only).

Raw numbers only tell half the story.

I don't have the time to compare it to capacity, but normally if the demand is there, universities expand existing their stadium, build a new bigger stadium, or move to a larger existing stadium to accommodate the demand.

Home attendance is rarely limited by capacity for very long if the demand is there.

I don't have it for every school, but these include much of that list:

Boise..........36,387
BYU............63,470
UCF............45,323
Cincy..........35,097 *
SDSU.........71,294
Houston..... 32,000 *
SMU...........32,000
Fresno........41,031
ECU...........50,000
Temple.......68,532
USF............66,321
UConn........40,000

* Both Cincy and Houston are either at or near completion of stadium expansion/renovation which would bring their capacity up to 40K. Reported average attendance for both schools appears to have been constrained by capacity.

Several other schools are at or near capacity, but I'm not aware of expansion plans. That could indicate that those schools think that their capacity is already near their realistic drawing power, given population base and other factors, making significant further expansion financially unfeasible. Or maybe they just haven't gotten around to it. Maybe fans of those schools could share their insights on the subject.

(07-11-2014 02:39 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-11-2014 10:00 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(07-11-2014 08:14 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  

(07-11-2014 07:29 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(07-10-2014 08:55 PM)Tigersmoke Wrote:  Ken d I really think you come up with some crazy useless stuff. You're pushing an empty agenda though, you leave out better teams for truly worthless teams. I don't get you at all.hahaha!!

PEAK ATTENDANCE (minimum 30K) since 2005

EAST

53,200 - USF
50,000 - ECU
44,000 - UCF
40,800 - Navy
40,000 - UConn
40,000 - Memphis
35,100 - Cincinnati
34,000 - Army
30,700 - Southern Miss
30,000 - Marshall

WEST

64,500 - BYU
47,900 - UTEP
43,500 - Hawaii
40,100 - Air Force
39,900 - San Diego State
37,900 - Fresno State
35,400 - Boise State
31,700 - Houston

Could you compare that to capacity?

Speaking for UH I know we would have averaged considerably more had we had a capacity above roughly 32k (32 was standing room only).

Raw numbers only tell half the story.

I don't have the time to compare it to capacity, but normally if the demand is there, universities expand existing their stadium, build a new bigger stadium, or move to a larger existing stadium to accommodate the demand.

Home attendance is rarely limited by capacity for very long if the demand is there.

I don't have it for every school, but these include much of that list:

Boise..........36,387
BYU............63,470
UCF............45,323
Cincy..........35,097 *
SDSU.........71,294
Houston..... 32,000 *
SMU...........32,000
Fresno........41,031
ECU...........50,000
Temple.......68,532
USF............66,321
UConn........40,000

* Both Cincy and Houston are either at or near completion of stadium expansion/renovation which would bring their capacity up to 40K. Reported average attendance for both schools appears to have been constrained by capacity.

Several other schools are at or near capacity, but I'm not aware of expansion plans. That could indicate that those schools think that their capacity is already near their realistic drawing power, given population base and other factors, making significant further expansion financially unfeasible. Or maybe they just haven't gotten around to it. Maybe fans of those schools could share their insights on the subject.

Cincinnati's average attendance equaled its capacity once in the past 5 years and Houston's did do twice. So, I don't see how their limited capacities have constrained their attendance figures as a rule. There have probably been individual games when they could have sold more tickets, but those would appear to have been. The exceptions.

(07-11-2014 06:55 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  Cincinnati's average attendance equaled its capacity once in the past 5 years and Houston's did do twice. So, I don't see how their limited capacities have constrained their attendance figures as a rule. There have probably been individual games when they could have sold more tickets, but those would appear to have been. The exceptions.

No question Cincinnati needed to expand. We have hovered around our capacity for more than 2 years. We were at capacity for two years. We have been growing our fan base and will continue to do so.

A new stadium and the renewed emphasis on athletics that our current administration has will pay off long term. We are already seeing the fruits of their labor from the athletic support and building more on campus housing that will lead to more active alumni.

Our road is long but we have set down that path. A 32k stadium has and would not be feasible in our long term goals. Not to mention the amenities and condition between the old and new are not even close.

I don't know that an east/west conference is inevitable, but I do think further G5 shuffling is inevitable.

Ask yourself this, "If UConn, USF and Cincinnati knew they would be stranded, would they have done anything different?" All of the G5 were scrambling as the ACC/SEC and Big 10 kept dribbling in new teams. Then the Big East did the same. I think the answer is clearly yes. Now its more difficult, but they probably would have done the east/west if they had known.

UConn
USF
Cincinnati
Temple
UCF
Memphis
Houston

SMU
SDSU
Boise
Fresno
UNLV
New Mexico
and that lineup is probably enough to keep BYU.
Then maybe Navy and Air Force get added as well or replace New Mexico and Fresno (UH moving west).

Any college competing against an established professional football or baseball franchise in their city is in for attendance problems. It's a direct form of competition that is difficult to overcome. The Falcons hurt GT. MD was nearly destroyed by Skins, Ravens, and then the addition of Washington Nationals. BC, Pitt, Miami, Cincy, Houston, SMU, Stanford, Washignton, Tulane, NW, and Temple are among the ones that get hit with that competition.

It's a remarkable correlation between huge stadiums and schools either in the middle of nowhere or without local competition for that entertainment dollar:

Clemson
FSU
Bama
Auburn
UF
FSU
Tennessee
LSU
Ohio State
Michigan
MSU
Wisky
Penn State
Texas
TAMU
OU
UGA
Arkansas
Iowa

USC and UCLA are outliers in an urban area, but they have not had pro-football competition in decades.

I would venture that the major universities with the most nearby competition for entertainment dollars are:

MD - Everyone in DC and Baltimore
BC - Patriots/Red Sox/Celtics/Bruins
UConn - Everything in Boston and everything in NYC
Rutgers- Everything in NYC and Philly
Temple - Eagles, Phillies, 76's
Pitt - Steelers, Pirates, etc.
UNC/Duke/NC State - each other in the same DMA plus Carolina Hurricanes
GT - Falcons, Braves, etc
Miami - Dolphins, Marlins, etc.
Tulane - Saints
Cincy - Reds, Bengals
Houston - Texas, Rockets
SMU - Cowboys, Mavericks
Minnesota - Vikings, etc.
Colorado - Bronco's, Rockies
ASU - Cardinals, Suns
Stanford and Cal - 49's, Giants, etc.
NW - Bears, Cubs, etc
Michigan and Georgia seem to be the least negatively affected by close proximity to many pro franchises.

This would make a good thesis topic for someone seeking a master's degree.

(07-09-2014 08:31 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  The 2 premier conferences in the G5 are unquestionably the Mountain West and the AAC. The flagship programs of those 2 conferences, BYU and UConn are thousands of miles apart, but the futures of the two programs are inextricably tied since both are outliers in the current structure with little hope of their status changing any time soon.

Both conferences have successful programs in their upper tier but both are also carrying a lot of dead weight. It is inevitable that the best programs for each conference will inevitably see their futures in a 2-division national conference which can command a strong TV contract and which can muster a viable challenge for P6 status.

The question is which programs are the ones who will comprise such a conference? I believe that the 2 leagues will serve as incubators in which programs will grow, so that 5-10 years down the line survival of the fittest will answer that question.

In 2013? There were only 13 programs outside the P5 which averaged 30,000+ in home attendance and they break down neatly into an East/West split. These may not be the programs which survive, but they are a starting point. Even these programs will have to grow their attendance to be truly competitive with the P5. For better or for worse, here they are:

WEST

62,200 - BYU
36,900 - Fresno State
34,400 - Boise State
33,200 - San Diego State
32,700 - Air Force
31,000 - Hawaii

EAST

44,000 - ECU
42,100 - UCF
35,600 - Navy
34,700 - USF
34,000 - Army
31,800 - Cincinnati
30,800 - UConn

In reviewing the 2 lists, some questions inevitably arise. Hawaii too far? Army and Navy not viable for all sports?

One solution would be to include only one of Army or Navy as in the current AAC model and compete with fewer schools in Olympic sports. Another option would be to drop down to the next highest attendance schools below 30K. Only 2 other G5 schools even draw in the high 20's and that are ALS East/West:

28,500 - Memphis
28,400 - UTEP

A 12-14 member conference could easily be drawn from this group with the potential to be competitive with the P5. Many of these schools have drawn upwards of 40-50,000 at some point in the past, showing the potential to exceed current attendance figures quickly.

Both divisions would provide access to fertile recruiting grounds with SDSU & FSU getting the West into California and UCF & USF getting the east into Florida. BYU brings wide TV appeal in the West and UConn provides a state flagship with basketball prestige and high name recognition in the East.

All in all, this would be a viable group of schools without the dead weight of the current AAC and MWC. Some of that perceived dead weight may change over the next 5-10 years with the incubator effect, but the basic look of a national conference with 2 competitive divisions won't change much.

Market forces make the emergence of such a conference seem inevitable to me.

The current AAC with BYU and Army will do just fine. No Mountain West airport meetings for both the AAC and MWC to eliminate current members from both conferences. The Western Wing is dead.

AAC East - UConn, Temple, ECU, UCF, USF, Cinn, Memphis,
AAC West - Houston, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa all sports, and BYU, Navy, Army FB only.

Eleven team all sports league for a 20 game home and home BB / Olympic Sports schedule and an eight game conference FB schedule with 6 division and 2 rotating cross over games a year. Keeps the Championship game going and gives the conference a National look without the Mountain / West Coast Western Wing.

14 team league, using the last five years attendance:

West
BYU - 61,879
Air Force - 35,144
Boise - 33,968
Hawaii - 33,388
Fresno St - 32,966
SDSU - 32,513
Houston - 28,041 (in 32,000 seat stadium; new 40,000 seat stadium opening in 2014)

East
East Carolina - 46,483
USF - 43,357
UCF - 37,733
UConn - 35,750
Navy - 33,389
Cincy - 32,245
Army - 31,829

Overall conference attendance average = 34,694

Others that merit inclusion based on TV market, basketball earning power, etc

Memphis
Temple
SMU
New Mexico
UNLV

West:
Fresno/SDSU/UNLV/UNM/Boise/BYU
East:
UCONN/CINCI/Houston/Memphis/USF/UCF

FB Affiliates:
AFA/NAVY/ARMY/Hawaii

8 Game conference schedule plus each team plays one game vs. a FB affiliate. The affiliates each play three games annually versus the East/West conference plus they play one another for 6 regularly scheduled games. In exchange, they get bowl access.

Alternate version (BYU still indy)
West:
Fresno/SDSU/UNLV/UNM/Boise/Houston

East:
UCONN/CINCI/ECU/Memphis/USF/UCF

FB Affiliates:
AFA/NAVY/ARMY/BYU

I placed more importance on travel ease, location outside of an existing P5 footprint, and strength in BB for tie-breakers.

The best of the G5 should form up.

(07-14-2014 06:52 PM)Maize Wrote:  The best of the G5 should form up.

If it meant a guarantee to be included at the highest level now and in the future, and a guarantee of comparable pay to the P5 this would have happened yesterday.

(07-15-2014 08:30 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  

(07-14-2014 06:52 PM)Maize Wrote:  The best of the G5 should form up.

If it meant a guarantee to be included at the highest level now and in the future, and a guarantee of comparable pay to the P5 this would have happened yesterday.

It probably would be included in D4. It would not make power conference money. Once established, i could see a best of the rest G5 conference maybe generating about half of what a P5 conference makes----which would be a significant improvement.

(07-15-2014 09:25 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-15-2014 08:30 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  

(07-14-2014 06:52 PM)Maize Wrote:  The best of the G5 should form up.

If it meant a guarantee to be included at the highest level now and in the future, and a guarantee of comparable pay to the P5 this would have happened yesterday.

It probably would be included in D4. It would not make power conference money. Once established, i could see a best of the rest G5 conference maybe generating about half of what a P5 conference makes----which would be a significant improvement.

This could only truly work if BYU is on board but something like this:

East Division
UConn
Cincinnati
Central Florida
South Florida
East Carolina
Memphis
Temple
Navy

West Division
BYU
Houston
SMU
Tulane
Air Force
San Diego State
Boise State
UNLV

If they can pull between $6-9 Million off a TV Deal it would be worth it...now if they could get that much that is the debate...

(07-15-2014 09:38 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(07-15-2014 09:25 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-15-2014 08:30 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  

(07-14-2014 06:52 PM)Maize Wrote:  The best of the G5 should form up.

If it meant a guarantee to be included at the highest level now and in the future, and a guarantee of comparable pay to the P5 this would have happened yesterday.

It probably would be included in D4. It would not make power conference money. Once established, i could see a best of the rest G5 conference maybe generating about half of what a P5 conference makes----which would be a significant improvement.

This could only truly work if BYU is on board but something like this:

East Division
UConn
Cincinnati
Central Florida
South Florida
East Carolina
Memphis
Temple
Navy

West Division
BYU
Houston
SMU
Tulane
Air Force
San Diego State
Boise State
UNLV

If they can pull between $6-9 Million off a TV Deal it would be worth it...now if they could get that much that is the debate...

It won't work, the p5 is intent on seclusion. More seclusion means less mouths to feed, more money,less oversight. The whole process was set up to ensure only they get in. They don't want us there which is why we could have whomever in the whatever conference it won't work. If you believe that then you believe that football is about competition and not money, sadly that's not true either.

(07-15-2014 09:38 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(07-15-2014 09:25 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-15-2014 08:30 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  

(07-14-2014 06:52 PM)Maize Wrote:  The best of the G5 should form up.

If it meant a guarantee to be included at the highest level now and in the future, and a guarantee of comparable pay to the P5 this would have happened yesterday.

It probably would be included in D4. It would not make power conference money. Once established, i could see a best of the rest G5 conference maybe generating about half of what a P5 conference makes----which would be a significant improvement.

This could only truly work if BYU is on board but something like this:

East Division
UConn
Cincinnati
Central Florida
South Florida
East Carolina
Memphis
Temple
Navy

West Division
BYU
Houston
SMU
Tulane
Air Force
San Diego State
Boise State
UNLV

If they can pull between $6-9 Million off a TV Deal it would be worth it...now if they could get that much that is the debate...

That should be closer to 12-15mil. The basketball alone in that league should be worth 6-9 mil since the Big East gets roughly that with fewer marquee teams.

A League with UConn, SDST, Memphis, SMU, Cincinnati, Temple, UNLV, etc. should bring somewhere in the neighborhood of 6-9. Football is growing and 4-6 million per school would be reasonable.

That said I think they could get more but in the real world we live in they will get negotiated down to 12-15 mil per school. For anyone outside the P5 that would be a huge win and an inclusion into the potential D4 would be a huge win win.

(07-15-2014 10:17 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  

(07-15-2014 09:38 AM)Maize Wrote:  

(07-15-2014 09:25 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-15-2014 08:30 AM)GO Coogs GO!!! Wrote:  

(07-14-2014 06:52 PM)Maize Wrote:  The best of the G5 should form up.

If it meant a guarantee to be included at the highest level now and in the future, and a guarantee of comparable pay to the P5 this would have happened yesterday.

It probably would be included in D4. It would not make power conference money. Once established, i could see a best of the rest G5 conference maybe generating about half of what a P5 conference makes----which would be a significant improvement.

This could only truly work if BYU is on board but something like this:

East Division
UConn
Cincinnati
Central Florida
South Florida
East Carolina
Memphis
Temple
Navy

West Division
BYU
Houston
SMU
Tulane
Air Force
San Diego State
Boise State
UNLV

If they can pull between $6-9 Million off a TV Deal it would be worth it...now if they could get that much that is the debate...

That should be closer to 12-15mil. The basketball alone in that league should be worth 6-9 mil since the Big East gets roughly that with fewer marquee teams.

A League with UConn, SDST, Memphis, SMU, Cincinnati, Temple, UNLV, etc. should bring somewhere in the neighborhood of 6-9. Football is growing and 4-6 million per school would be reasonable.

That said I think they could get more but in the real world we live in they will get negotiated down to 12-15 mil per school. For anyone outside the P5 that would be a huge win and an inclusion into the potential D4 would be a huge win win.

I would support a conference like that, but only have football and basketball play cross divisional games.. While the other olympic sports play within the division only until a conference tourney. It will help reduce on travel costs.