The science isn't settled after all.

Quote:There isn't enough data to say with any certainty what will happen to sea levels around the world this century, and there is no "scientific consensus" to suggest that the rate of the seas' rise will accelerate dangerously.

That's according to a group of eminent specialists based in Germany, the Netherlands and the UK. Writing in hefty boffinry journal Nature Geoscience this week, the assembled experts have this to say:


The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been reported to be losing mass at accelerating rates ... However, at present there is no scientific consensus on whether these reported accelerations result from variability inherent to the ice-sheet–climate system, or reflect long-term changes ...

[Our emphasis.]

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are very important factors in forecasting the rate at which the seas might rise in the coming century, which is perhaps the primary reason to be concerned about global warming and associated climate changes.

During the 20th century, sea levels as measured by tide gauges rose about 17cm, just short of 2mm a year. The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that "no long-term acceleration of sea level has been identified using 20th-century data alone", but the organisation nonetheless forecast rises in the 21st century of 26-59cm as many scientists think that the rate of rise will increase seriously due to global warming.

Many others boffins assess that the ice sheets are so massive that they will take centuries to respond to likely levels of warming. Recent first-of-its-kind analysis pulling together all the factors in play suggested that the worst possible case in 2100 would be 30cm with the likely result less - in other words, no major change from the 20th century situation. And that was before new studies came out reflecting the fact that global warming has been basically on hold for the last decade and more, meaning that warming forecasts should be revised downwards.

Be all that as it may, the next IPCC report is now being produced. It will attempt to reflect what the various committees and advisors believe to be the scientific consensus on various matters including sea levels. But it appears that there simply isn't any scientific consensus on the Antarctic and Greenland melt rates - and therefore there isn't one on sea levels either.

You wouldn't necessarily know this. Various organisations, for instance the Google-funded alarmist activism organisation Climate Central, say that there is a consensus and that it centres on a much higher figure - one or even two metres of rise by 2100. ("Scientists expect" this, we are told by the Google mouthpieces.)

One of the authors of the new study today, Professor Jonathan Bamber of Bristol uni, carried out a previous effort to work out what scientists think sea levels will do, in which metre-range rises were described as "conceivable" but highly unlikely.

"Expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided," that study said.

The scientists compiling the new assessment say that there simply isn't enough data yet (especially from the GRACE satellites which have lately produced such surprising results on glacier and ice sheet mass) to know what will happen. In the case of the Greenland ice sheet, at least another ten years of data will be required.

According to a Bristol uni statement released to highlight the research:

As a result, extrapolation of the current contribution to sea-level rise of the ice sheets to 2100 may be too high or low by as much as 35 cm. The study, therefore, urges caution in extrapolating current measurements to predict future sea-level rise.

Link

Ooops.

It amazes me that seemingly intelligent people eat the whole anthropogenic global war...er, climate change crap up as gospel. I certainly have no ability to determine the validity of it for myself and neither do they, yet they believe anything that comes out in support of this new religion.

(07-06-2014 06:43 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  It amazes me that seemingly intelligent people eat the whole anthropogenic global war...er, climate change crap up as gospel. I certainly have no ability to determine the validity of it for myself and neither do they, yet they believe anything that comes out in support of this new religion.

regardless, it's happening...you'll be dead when it happens and won't know or care about the 'why'....that's the real issue....nothing more than a selfish, pompous pricck that knows it all....

all those scientists gathering data and using best methodology to extrapolate are just a bunch of the group known as "climate change for dummies" authors.....

nice word btw....does that make you smarter? honestly, it just makes you look like a dipshite w/o a clue

it continually amazes me that people like you choose to open their mouth when you admittedly don't have "ability".....

(07-06-2014 09:52 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(07-06-2014 06:43 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  It amazes me that seemingly intelligent people eat the whole anthropogenic global war...er, climate change crap up as gospel. I certainly have no ability to determine the validity of it for myself and neither do they, yet they believe anything that comes out in support of this new religion.

regardless, it's happening...you'll be dead when it happens and won't know or care about the 'why'....that's the real issue....nothing more than a selfish, pompous pricck that knows it all....

all those scientists gathering data and using best methodology to extrapolate are just a bunch of the group known as "climate change for dummies" authors.....

nice word btw....does that make you smarter? honestly, it just makes you look like a dipshite w/o a clue

it continually amazes me that people like you choose to open their mouth when you admittedly don't have "ability".....

and you make this claim,

when the science is not settled or agreed upon, choosing to ignore all scientists who do not share your opinion as being biased, calling them "climate change dummies,"
while calling the OP a dipshite,
when you are the one guilty of close-mindedness.

Rich.

(07-06-2014 10:05 AM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  

(07-06-2014 09:52 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(07-06-2014 06:43 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  It amazes me that seemingly intelligent people eat the whole anthropogenic global war...er, climate change crap up as gospel. I certainly have no ability to determine the validity of it for myself and neither do they, yet they believe anything that comes out in support of this new religion.

regardless, it's happening...you'll be dead when it happens and won't know or care about the 'why'....that's the real issue....nothing more than a selfish, pompous pricck that knows it all....

all those scientists gathering data and using best methodology to extrapolate are just a bunch of the group known as "climate change for dummies" authors.....

nice word btw....does that make you smarter? honestly, it just makes you look like a dipshite w/o a clue

it continually amazes me that people like you choose to open their mouth when you admittedly don't have "ability".....

and you make this claim,

when the science is not settled or agreed upon, choosing to ignore all scientists who do not share your opinion as being biased, calling them "climate change dummies,"
while calling the OP a dipshite,
when you are the one guilty of close-mindedness.

Rich.

you misinterpreted....you are grouping those as the dummies....

and the op is a dipshite....

I've stated my position many times.....I'm not going to repeat it....it just doesn't matter.....like this thread.....

(07-06-2014 09:52 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(07-06-2014 06:43 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  It amazes me that seemingly intelligent people eat the whole anthropogenic global war...er, climate change crap up as gospel. I certainly have no ability to determine the validity of it for myself and neither do they, yet they believe anything that comes out in support of this new religion.

regardless, it's happening...you'll be dead when it happens and won't know or care about the 'why'....that's the real issue....nothing more than a selfish, pompous pricck that knows it all....

all those scientists gathering data and using best methodology to extrapolate are just a bunch of the group known as "climate change for dummies" authors.....

nice word btw....does that make you smarter? honestly, it just makes you look like a dipshite w/o a clue

it continually amazes me that people like you choose to open their mouth when you admittedly don't have "ability".....

Yeah, I believe you. Just because you say it's so. Much like you believe that it's real and arrogantly think that if we, as a country, don't do something about it our
entire species will go the way of the dinosaur. Just because you say so based on what you believe is the truth despite legitimate questions about that truth.

I won't swap insults with you because it would be too easy.


Posted from the shallow recesses of my feeble mind.

And oops, you got me, I meant anthropomorphic. Gee you're so much smarter than me.
(That's sarcasm by the way)

Posted from the shallow recesses of my feeble mind.

how long before ideologues, under the title of "scientist", go back into history and lower the levels of the sea in the past as to show that the levels are now rising.

(07-06-2014 10:49 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  how long before ideologues, under the title of "scientist", go back into history and lower the levels of the sea in the past as to show that the levels are now rising.

The things that were causing global cooling 30 years ago are the exact same things causing global warming today. But the science is settled.

A great deal of America was at one time under a mile of ice. It melted. Humans had nothing to do with it. Climate change is going to occur regardless of human activity. We contribute a very small amount to it currently. There is even a case to be made that we might even want to increase our co2 footprint to stave off global cooling. Ice core sampling indicates we are overdue for another mini ice age. I can tell you that we do not want the damn ice to return. If it does? We are in for some real problems. I take warming over cooling any fcking day.

(07-06-2014 11:01 AM)smn1256 Wrote:  

(07-06-2014 10:49 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  how long before ideologues, under the title of "scientist", go back into history and lower the levels of the sea in the past as to show that the levels are now rising.

The things that were causing global cooling 30 years ago are the exact same things causing global warming today. But the science is settled.

The fact is that we contribute to about 100ppm of the 400ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere. Levels taken from ice core sampling indicate levels 4 to 5x higher in history where human activity had almost no impact. What does that tell us?

Why do so many hate life giving warmth?

(07-06-2014 11:07 AM)Paul M Wrote:  Why do so many hate life giving warmth?

I have no idea. I guess they have not watched "Life below zero".

Just when you thought the subject of global warming was settled.

(07-06-2014 11:07 AM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(07-06-2014 11:01 AM)smn1256 Wrote:  

(07-06-2014 10:49 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  how long before ideologues, under the title of "scientist", go back into history and lower the levels of the sea in the past as to show that the levels are now rising.

The things that were causing global cooling 30 years ago are the exact same things causing global warming today. But the science is settled.

The fact is that we contribute to about 100ppm of the 400ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere. Levels taken from ice core sampling indicate levels 4 to 5x higher in history where human activity had almost no impact. What does that tell us?

It tells us that someone is about to go back and manipulate those numbers way down in the ice core samplings.

Andddddd...like the people in Lucy Anna we'll just learn to live with it by putting our homes in stilts. Geepers why worry about something that "really" isn't in our control. Let's say the U.S. does join that group advocating green house gases do you think China with it's billions to feed and India with another billions to feed will care? Give it up Gore, no one is listening to you and your millions, er, your thoughts.

There wasn't scientific consensus on gravity either. Wow, you guys just eat this bullsh!t up!!! It is so funny how brainwashed the paranoid mafia is on this board...kind of sad too

(07-06-2014 03:01 PM)Cali_Cat Wrote:  There wasn't scientific consensus on gravity either. Wow, you guys just eat this bullsh!t up!!! It is so funny how brainwashed the paranoid mafia is on this board...kind of sad too

When global warming gets the same consensus as gravity does today that will be the day I start believing in it.

(07-06-2014 03:10 PM)smn1256 Wrote:  

(07-06-2014 03:01 PM)Cali_Cat Wrote:  There wasn't scientific consensus on gravity either. Wow, you guys just eat this bullsh!t up!!! It is so funny how brainwashed the paranoid mafia is on this board...kind of sad too

When global warming gets the same consensus as gravity does today that will be the day I start believing in it.

gravity doesn't need politicians and paid-off academics to constantly defend it. when was the last time a seedy politician felt like he had to say something like, "gravity is settled science"?

no one has to worry about gravity. it bears up to scrutiny on its own. gravity doesn't need someone to spin it's data for it.