(08-01-2014 01:02 PM)NKOTB Wrote: Please allow me a chance to recalculate the %'s with the new coaches, strength/training, new offensives and defensives schemes, mostly senior class, new attitude among the players, Rob Bolden, new field, and other intangible.
1. Morgan State @ EMU: 95% 1st staff games.
2. EMU @ Florida: 20% they will over look us.
3. EMU @ Old Dominion: 60% they are not that good.
4. EMU @ MSU: 30% we always play them well for 3 quarters.
5. EMU @ Akron: 65% they are not good on the road.
6. Buffalo @ EMU: 50% they are not good on defense.
7. EMU @ UMass: 75% poor team.
8. NIU @ EMU: 55% I think they will be more middle of the road team, they lost too much.
9. CMU @ EMU: 65% they are not good.
10. EMU @ WMU: 60% they are worst then CMU
11. EMU @ BSU: 45% Rob Bolden with carry this came.
12. Toledo @ EMU: 40% senior day, this will be a all heart game.
I see us being 8-4 or 9-3
Okay everyone, don't laugh too hard.
Oh, I am laughing. :) If EMU goes 9-3, their new coach will be GONE -- hired by another program. He'd be an infinite sports genius that mankind thought wouldn't exist!
1. Morgan State: I wouldn't say 95%, as EMU has struggled against D1AA teams. The reason I said 80% instead of 90% is because of that + Morgan State was 5-2 in their last 7 games last year. Just saying it's not a super-easy D1AA team, that's all.
2. Florda: Yeah, but it won't affect the chances of winning. There's a good reason they'll overlook. Unless EMU's a surprise/changed team (that Eagle fans always hope the next year is) -- that won't affect chances of winning really -- just to beat the spread to some degree.
3. Old Dominion IS decent. A good D1AA transfer into real D1 football. Last year they were 8-4 -- going 8-0 against all D1AA opponents, and lost 4 to FBS teams. They played Pitt & East Carolina relatively close. And this game is at Old Dominion, now part of C-USA. I stand by 40% chance of EMU winning it.
4. MSU 30% chance of winning? No way. Unless MSU starts the season off in a very rare form super-horrible -- it's not going to be 30%+. Dantonio ain't going to let his team be like that again. And as you said, you tend to play them relatively tough -- Dantonio knows this. He won't be overlooking.
5. EMU's not good on the road and you give EMU a 65% chance to win @Akron?? :) Akron's on the rise, man.
6. 50/50 for Buffalo? If Buffalo kinda sucks this year, which is a possibility, that's the only way I'd see that.
8. NIU @ EMU: 55%?? So EMU's favored to win, huh? LOL. NIU instead of being a 10+ win team, they'll be an 8+ win team. They keep their coaches from within -- their QB is going to be at Least decent. You won't see a big drop-off. No, sorry, NIU will be favored strongly to win.
9. CMU @ EMU: 65%?? Okay, it's home, CMU isn't that good. But neither is EMU! EMU could win this game -- it'll be roughly 50-50 shot.. not a solid favored win by EMU.
10. EMU @ WMU: 60%, yet "they are worst then CMU"? But less of a chance? Okay, on the road -- fair enough, but they wouldn't be that much worse. But I have to tell ya -- WMU is not going to be as bad as last year. They'll be improved. And last year's EMU/WMU game was a barn-burner. This time it's in Kzoo. It will be another roughly-a-toss-up game, leaning in the Bronco's favor.
I think you're treating EMU like they're a historic 6-6/7-5 team or something who's on the tipping point of a good improvement this year. I honestly have to ask -- what exists within EMU's program that's suddenly going to jolt them?