WORTH

What is worth to a conference is what can benefit the whole conference or what can be share by all members.

I don’t believe the size of stadium or seat capacity benefits anyone else in the conference. This is true with the number of attendant unless they share revenue from tickets sells.

You like size of that enrollment? It’s one of the biggest in the country.
Look at the size of that endowment, it’s huge. Do they share that with everyone in the conference?
All of these and other metrics don’t add an inch to any of their member but it makes them feel good.

You said that because you are a fan of a school that doesn't measure up to these metrics. Even so, if they don’t benefit the collective then the whole profit nothing from that addition.

What these metrics pointed out is the worthiness of the candidate to sit at the table but bring nothing of great worth that benefit everyone that sat the table.

EYEBALLS

So let us look at the worth of a candidate or worth of everyone in the conference. First, we need identify what revenue that contribute by everyone and share by everyone. Conference media right or its value is the only thing share by everyone that is benefiting everyone equally.

What is it that determines the value media right?

Any value of anything is whatever the costumer willing to pay for it. We know networks are the conference customers for the products that conference provided. And they are ESPN, FOX sport, and NBC sport and others in minor roles are buying or paying for those media right.

Next question would be how would they know how much to pay for them. As it turns out, they (networks) have customers too (1) in sponsors and (2) the rest of us fanatics. It’s funny, 1 & 2 need each other. Sponsors are willing to pay premium to have their products exposure to our eyeballs. The more eyeballs the more value to a sponsor.

Okay, I walk everybody through my reasoning and logic and concluded that eyeballs are valuable to a conference. Anyone bring a lot of eyeballs to the table would have a seat at the big boy table.

RANKING SCHOOL

Looking at school worth, you have three type of school: a state university, a regional (‘State’ in their name) or directional university, and a city university.

I ranked a state university or a flag-ship university as the most valuable as they would get the largest fans support from that state maybe as high as 85% of the state sport fans population even when in competition with other universities in the state.

The next valuable school type would be those regional and directional type where they can count on a few surrounding counties.

A city university is a choice when the first and second is off the table.

So the first tier in term of media value or worth is a flag-ship university especially in a high populated state.

Conferences with a lot of these first tier schools are most profitable and stable. Even among the so called power conferences, those have a lot of flag-ship universities have better TV contract.

Notice – TV rating reflect the quality of a team regardless of school type. But quality or winning is never the same from year to year. The only sure thing is the populations don’t grow or drop from year to year. You can point out at TV rating after the fact but you can’t guarantee those rating into the future. But population or eyeballs are more constant and predictable.

Ranking conferences base on TV contracts and stability
1) PAC-12
2) B1G 10
3) SEC
.
4) B12
5) ACC

4 and 5 can switch places but personally those two are irrelevance in the future.

Now let apply what layout from above to conference realignment.

I see only 3 super conferences in PAC-16, B1G 10, and SEC. The remaining conferences are filler. The ACC would lose to 2 teams but B12 would lose 6 teams.

Currently the most valuable schools in the ACC are North Carolina and Virginia. Those are the only flag-ship universities the B1G and SEC would go after base on the model above. I think those two would split base on culture and academic fit, one goes north and other south.

The B12 has 3.5 flag-ship universities, just kidding. Texas is so valuable that the PAC would Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. The SEC would take Kansas for new market and basketball. They don’t need any more football school. The ACC would take West Virginia and Cincinnati to get back to 14.5.

The remaining B12, AAC, and MWC would join force to form Big 12 or maybe Big 16.

Those in the AAC didn’t make the cut in the Big 12 or B16 would join the C-USA but keep the name American, its cooler name. I think Army and UMass would be in this group too.

CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF

I think 4 teams are big enough for championship playoff given there would only 3 super conferences. And the highest runner up would fill the 4th spot or the highest ranked team from filler conferences.

The representative of the west coast is PAC-16 champ. And from the north and northeast is the B1G champ. And finally the south and south east is SEC champ. So every part of the country is represented. You don’t want the post season to go too long just to crown the best college football team in the country.

The other BCS bowl games would be filling up with those runner-up teams and champ from ACC and champ B12/B16 that didn’t make it in the playoff games.

This is what I believe as "the writing on the wall".

This is one of the reason I believe why teams leaving ACC and the B12.

They want to sit with the grown-up.

The other reasons would be both the ACC and the B12 TV contracts are at the upper limits and it can’t go any higher. ESPN and FOX over pay them already base on my model.

The ACC has only two states in North Carolina and Virginia. And the B12 has Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and a small providence in east coast.

Okay test out my theory, will the B12 able to expand? I believe they can’t expand, based on my model, all those teams that can add value already in the super conferences.

So the next round of TV contract, the separation or gap will be too big for those teams that have the option will leave their current conference.

This is just my theory based on the model that I layout above.

"The other reasons would be both the ACC and the B12 TV contracts are at the upper limits and it can’t go any higher. ESPN and FOX over pay them already base on my model."

Raycom disagrees.

"Currently the most valuable schools in the ACC are North Carolina and Virginia."

Florida State and Notre Dame* disagree(s).

"Looking at school worth, you have three type of school: a state university, a regional (‘State’ in their name) or directional university, and a city university."

Apparently none of the private schools got the memo.

And ranking the Pac #1 is a joke. I have nothing against the Pac (it's actually my second favorite conference), but in no way, shape, or form is it better/richer/more stable than either the B1G or the SEC.

Also, the only teams to leave the ACC were USCarolina back in the day and UMD this year. UMD had deep financial troubles and USCarolina was in the 70's. Neither left for the reason that you stated.

"I don’t believe the size of stadium or seat capacity benefits anyone else in the conference."

If the seats are filled, they help maintain stability and competitiveness, which benefits everyone in the conference.

I doubt the P5 will ever slip to the P3. The conference most endangered to be absorbed by the Other 4 is the Big12. They can send schools to the PAC as well as B1G, SEC and ACC.
They are centrally located and primarily located in 3 states with only 1 large TV market being Texas.

(05-26-2014 08:07 PM)SO#1 Wrote:  Currently the most valuable schools in the ACC are North Carolina and Virginia. Those are the only flag-ship universities the B1G and SEC would go after base on the model above.

Florida State has a higher overall-value for athletics, IMHO than either UVA or UNC. Although I suspect the B1G looks down on FSU academically, and the SEC would rather have new territory.

But I think all of this discussion is probably besides the point. I think the ACC is going to remain very prosperous and stable for a long time.

First, I'd like to see where all the money is at for college athletics.
I think that all revenue originates with consumer spending (in what I think is descending order):
Cable/Satellite Subscriptions
Tickets
Merchandise

The flow of revenue from the consumer to the university varies by source, with each middleman taking a cut:
Tickets---> University
Merch----> Retail outlet -----> Manufacturer -----> University
TV(reg season)----> Cable/Sat ----> Network ----> Conf---> University
TV(post season)-> Cable/Sat-> Network->NCAA/Bowl-> Conf-> University

I think the last round of realignment largely maximized profits based on single school additions. Next is to see if the conferences can cut out the middle man share. Could a P5 network and P5 only postseason cut out the profit lost to ESPN/FOX/NCAA/Bowl Organizations?

I could completely see the P5 Network (wholy owned and operated like the current PAC networks) being the ultimate recipient of the entire P5 GoR. I don't see any way that a cable provider could opt not to carry this product. I could see the P5 "League" tournament replacing the NCAA in terms of march madness viewership. I could see every non-tournament P5 team hosting a post-season exhibition (and retaining all rights) vs a Go5 opponent as replacing the current bowl system.

To me, the trend in CR is that the small moves are largely over, and larger consolidation of media power among the P5 will be the next step.

(05-27-2014 03:23 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  First, I'd like to see where all the money is at for college athletics.
I think that all revenue originates with consumer spending (in what I think is descending order):
Cable/Satellite Subscriptions
Tickets
Merchandise

The flow of revenue from the consumer to the university varies by source, with each middleman taking a cut:
Tickets---> University
Merch----> Retail outlet -----> Manufacturer -----> University
TV(reg season)----> Cable/Sat ----> Network ----> Conf---> University
TV(post season)-> Cable/Sat-> Network->NCAA/Bowl-> Conf-> University

I think the last round of realignment largely maximized profits based on single school additions. Next is to see if the conferences can cut out the middle man share. Could a P5 network and P5 only postseason cut out the profit lost to ESPN/FOX/NCAA/Bowl Organizations?

I could completely see the P5 Network (wholy owned and operated like the current PAC networks) being the ultimate recipient of the entire P5 GoR. I don't see any way that a cable provider could opt not to carry this product. I could see the P5 "League" tournament replacing the NCAA in terms of march madness viewership. I could see every non-tournament P5 team hosting a post-season exhibition (and retaining all rights) vs a Go5 opponent as replacing the current bowl system.

To me, the trend in CR is that the small moves are largely over, and larger consolidation of media power among the P5 will be the next step.

I'm telling ya, that's the Delany vision, move into an equity position in media, take over post-season or force the operators to cut operating costs to the bone. Question is can he get the presidents to buy in.

(05-27-2014 03:33 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I'm telling ya, that's the Delany vision, move into an equity position in media, take over post-season or force the operators to cut operating costs to the bone. Question is can he get the presidents to buy in.

I think it's a big leap from the current system to that model, and even if the revenue projections clearly show the benefit, I think there would be too much resistance to go in one step.

The question is whether or not there's an intermediate step that would be viewed as safer. I also agree that Delaney and the B1G are in the driver's seat. From a revenue and market standpoint, the SEC is the most attractive media partner for the B1G. From an academic and cultural standpoint, the PAC, and to an extent the ACC, are attractive enough partners. From a market perspective both providing non-overlapping markets, but with the PAC also covering non-overlapping time zones.

The SEC/ACC have too much market overlap and too wide of a revenue disparity to successfully merge media rights. The BigXII is really just doing its own thing right now making it hard to see them in any kind of expanded equal revenue model.

For those reasons, I think a PAC/B1G media merger might have the best combination of financial gains and limited pushback from academic and cultural differences. I could see that move as the first intermediate step in large scale P5 media consolidation. Although that could be completely personal bias from a PAC and B1G grad.

Big 12 schools aren't vulnerable to any conference. They have strong national powers. They have tv contracts with two major networks. They have media contracts paying them right at the top of revenues per school. They own and are in the Sugar Bowl with the SEC.

It's much more likely other schools will migrate their way than vice versa.

The ACC is the only P5 conference that is unstable now and in the future.

Revenues are lower per school from the conference than every conference in the country. They are located in the east, which is where three of the P5 conferences are looking should they expand further. They have schools in states with lots of tvs and certain academic rankings that are attractive to other P5 conferences. They have only one "power" school and are having to make all sorts of adjustments and concessions to appease that school and to shore up the weakness of their on field product. They have no major bowl tie in comparable to the Sugar or Rose Bowls. They have had to admit a partial member and members that don't fit their previously proclaimed profile. They are suing a member right now to try to keep others from looking into opportunities elsewhere. They are losing a founding member right now and have had high ranking officials speak out about seeing what opportunities exist elsewhere.

(05-27-2014 03:49 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(05-27-2014 03:33 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I'm telling ya, that's the Delany vision, move into an equity position in media, take over post-season or force the operators to cut operating costs to the bone. Question is can he get the presidents to buy in.

I think it's a big leap from the current system to that model, and even if the revenue projections clearly show the benefit, I think there would be too much resistance to go in one step.

The question is whether or not there's an intermediate step that would be viewed as safer. I also agree that Delaney and the B1G are in the driver's seat. From a revenue and market standpoint, the SEC is the most attractive media partner for the B1G. From an academic and cultural standpoint, the PAC, and to an extent the ACC, are attractive enough partners. From a market perspective both providing non-overlapping markets, but with the PAC also covering non-overlapping time zones.

The SEC/ACC have too much market overlap and too wide of a revenue disparity to successfully merge media rights. The BigXII is really just doing its own thing right now making it hard to see them in any kind of expanded equal revenue model.

For those reasons, I think a PAC/B1G media merger might have the best combination of financial gains and limited pushback from academic and cultural differences. I could see that move as the first intermediate step in large scale P5 media consolidation. Although that could be completely personal bias from a PAC and B1G grad.

No this a several decade direction if it happens and if it does happen, Delany will be long retired.

Lets see ACC loses Maryland. Mostly for Financial reasons. Big12 lost Nebraska, Missouri, Texas A&M, Colorado. A virtual Whos Who in Football. Maryland, ...........

(05-27-2014 04:47 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  Lets see ACC loses Maryland. Mostly for Financial reasons. Big12 lost Nebraska, Missouri, Texas A&M, Colorado. A virtual Whos Who in Football. Maryland, ...........

In it 60 year history...the ACC loses South Carolina and Maryland....Gains Georgia Tech, Florida State, Boston College, Miami, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville and Notre Dame in everything but Football but Notre Dame agrees to a 5 Games a year Schedule Arrangement with ACC Schools-(Coming to Louisville Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in 2017 and Louisville travels to South Bend this year for an example) and agrees to play every single ACC School on a Rotating Basis...FTR, The Big XII offered them the same deal that ND accepted with the ACC.

The Big XII-(and it isn't going anywhere IMO) loses in its 20 year history loses National Brands-(Nebraska), Texas A&M, Missouri and Colorado and replaces them with WVU & TCU...has become the smallest of the P5 and has by far the smallest population base in the P5...but Texas and Oklahoma are happy and have no reason to rock the boat...

It’s cheaper for ESPN to kill off the Big East by bribe the ACC to take 2 Big East teams (Syracuse and Pitt) than to have 2 contracts worth over 2-3 billion for ACC and Big East, also to keep the value of the Big East out off the hand of their competitor. Now Fox got the name but not the quality of the product. I don’t believe Syracuse and Pitt add 2 more million dollars to then ACC contract but it’s cheaper for ESPN.

ESPN bribe Texas to stay in the Big 12 by pay them off $15 million a year. Do you really believe LHN worth that much for the contents they get? This is really nothing. Now that Texas A&M is in the SEC so they will has a presence in that market. So why continue the charade when you can use that money on something else much more valuable. I don’t know how long before they make a move to drop LHN.

I just don’t see the ACC and the Big 12 get that much more money than they are currently getting right now. They can’t get any school from any other power conference. So their option of keeping up with the top 3 earner is not now or ever will be. There is no future for these two conferences other then their name just like the Big East. They still exist but no one is fool by it. They are not the same one.

I think future of super conference is much closer than people believe, I believe before this decade is over We will 3 super conference and the supporting casts’ conferences. The championship playoff will force it to be so. A super conference of 16-team is big enough to have their championship team as an AQ.

OP obvious Butthurt with the thinly veiled putdown on Cuse, Pitt and Louisville.

(05-27-2014 08:59 PM)SO#1 Wrote:  I just don’t see the ACC and the Big 12 get that much more money than they are currently getting right now. They can’t get any school from any other power conference. So their option of keeping up with the top 3 earner is not now or ever will be. There is no future for these two conferences other then their name just like the Big East. They still exist but no one is fool by it. They are not the same one.

I think future of super conference is much closer than people believe, I believe before this decade is over We will 3 super conference and the supporting casts’ conferences. The championship playoff will force it to be so. A super conference of 16-team is big enough to have their championship team as an AQ.

Such nonsense. Let's see, in the last round of realignment, the ACC got Pitt, SU, and Louisville. What did the mighty BiG get?? Oh yeah, Rutgers and Maryland. IMO, the ACC got the stronger programs. So much for your statement about who is able to land programs from power conferences.

ESPN is a complete red hearing. They do not benefit from less competition. The more power conferences there are, the less loosing one hurts and the more they can afford to offer less per school. The consolidated things get, the more power the conferences get and this forces ESPN's hand. ESPN (reluctantly) answers questions about the value of a conference after expansion, but they are definitely not instigators here, especially against conferences that they still have contracts with.

(05-28-2014 12:06 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  ESPN is a complete red hearing. They do not benefit from less competition. The more power conferences there are, the less loosing one hurts and the more they can afford to offer less per school. The consolidated things get, the more power the conferences get and this forces ESPN's hand. ESPN (reluctantly) answers questions about the value of a conference after expansion, but they are definitely not instigators here, especially against conferences that they still have contracts with.

Exactly.

The conferences figured out they consolidate the top out of another conference they can get more money than the two independently. Yeah that has ESPN evil plan written all over it, pay more to get less content.

I think people are underestimating how much change in the tv landscape that can happen between now and when the GOR's expire. Sh*t, we could have a complete economic collapse and smaller more geographical compact conferences make sense again.

(05-28-2014 09:44 AM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  I think people are underestimating how much change in the tv landscape that can happen between now and when the GOR's expire. Sh*t, we could have a complete economic collapse and smaller more geographical compact conferences make sense again.

FWIW, I think that ESPN has signed the long-term deals as a hedge against major changes, and I'm pretty sure they locked in digital rights on all the recent deals.

That way they can either aggregate to a subscription internet delivery model or (what I think they are hoping for) aggregate to an internet carriage fee model.

(05-28-2014 10:04 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(05-28-2014 09:44 AM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  I think people are underestimating how much change in the tv landscape that can happen between now and when the GOR's expire. Sh*t, we could have a complete economic collapse and smaller more geographical compact conferences make sense again.

FWIW, I think that ESPN has signed the long-term deals as a hedge against major changes, and I'm pretty sure they locked in digital rights on all the recent deals.

That way they can either aggregate to a subscription internet delivery model or (what I think they are hoping for) aggregate to an internet carriage fee model.

I get that and I realize that what I said is an hyperbole and all. But we never know what there will be when those contracts expire. For all we know, ESPN will be losing money due to these contracts and not want to spend as much money for this content 10 years from now.

(05-27-2014 09:43 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  OP obvious Butthurt with the thinly veiled putdown on Cuse, Pitt and Louisville.

Eyeballs are very import when it’s come to TV, Network, and CR in this 21st century, a merit base logic where one earn it doesn't fit today logic then the question of worth was asked and now being defined and the logic is based on this definition.

Trying to point out what people in position of power consider what is worth and ranking school by type what these people consider valuable.

Poor UConn, it’s true we are in a bad place but points and reasoning that were made was not design to put down school that you rooting for but rather to build a model to predict what to come.