Tulane fans can vote, but please keep homerism to a minimum so as not to skew results.

Vote for each victory you think Tulane will get this season

Reading Material:
Paul Myerberg on Tulane

SBNation on Tulane

OOC in bold

Tulane Football Schedule:
• @ Tulsa - Thursday Aug. 28th - H.A. Chapman Stadium
• vs. Georgia Tech - Saturday Sept. 6th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
• vs. SE Louisiana - Saturday Sept. 13th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
• @ Duke - Saturday Sept. 20th - Wallace Wade Stadium
• @ Rutgers - Saturday Sept. 27th - High Point Solutions Stadium
• vs. UConn - Saturday Oct. 11th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
• @ UCF - Saturday Oct. 18th - Brighthouse Networks Stadium
• vs. Cincinnati - Friday Oct. 31 - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
• @ Houston - Saturday Nov. 8th - Houston Football Stadium
• vs. Memphis - Saturday Nov. 15th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
• @ East Carolina - Saturday Nov. 22nd - Bagwell Field at Dowdy Ficklen Stadium
• vs. Temple - Saturday Dec. 6th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
  

If this post is successful, i'll continue this form of "predict a season" and compile it at the completion. Many lulz will be had.

Tulane Football Schedule:
@ Tulsa - Thursday Aug. 28th - H.A. Chapman Stadium (W) 1-0
Georgia Tech - Saturday Sept. 6th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium (L) 1-1
SE Louisiana - Saturday Sept. 13th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium (W) 2-1
@ Duke - Saturday Sept. 20th - Wallace Wade Stadium (L) 2-2
@ Rutgers - Saturday Sept. 27th - High Point Solutions Stadium (W) 3-2
UConn - Saturday Oct. 11th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium (W) 4-2
@ UCF - Saturday Oct. 18th - Brighthouse Networks Stadium (L) 4-3
Cincinnati - Friday Oct. 31 - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium (L) 4-4
@ Houston - Saturday Nov. 8th - Houston Football Stadium (L) 4-5
Memphis - Saturday Nov. 15th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium (W) 5-5
@ East Carolina - Saturday Nov. 22nd - Bagwell Field at Dowdy Ficklen Stadium (L) 5-6
Temple - Saturday Dec. 6th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium (W) 6-6

So, I'll go with 6-6 and a Bowl invite.

With their new stadium, I think they only drop games to GT and Cincinnati at home (although I'd love to see them beat the Jackets). I think they can win 2 on the road - at Tulsa and at Rutgers - but I'm only about 50% confident about those games. If they win them both, that puts them at 6-6 and bowl eligible.

(05-25-2014 03:23 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  Tulane fans can vote, but please keep homerism to a minimum so as not to skew results.

Vote for each victory you think Tulane will get this season

Reading Material:
Paul Myerberg on Tulane

SBNation on Tulane

The reading material for those who predict us better should be coming out later (like the Orlando Sentinel).

What would be a good way to estimate the final record of the team?

1/12 of the votes would be about 8%...

If a vote gets more than 8% consider it a win?

That doesn't seem right...

(05-25-2014 04:44 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  What would be a good way to estimate the final record of the team?

1/12 of the votes would be about 8%...

If a vote gets more than 8% consider it a win?

That doesn't seem right...

No it doesn't.
I think you have to do it on a macro level. Take everyone's predicted record and average that.

(05-25-2014 04:52 PM)DrBox Wrote:  

(05-25-2014 04:44 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  What would be a good way to estimate the final record of the team?

1/12 of the votes would be about 8%...

If a vote gets more than 8% consider it a win?

That doesn't seem right...

No it doesn't.
I think you have to do it on a macro level. Take everyone's predicted record and average that.

I could compare head to heads (in conference at least) and go off of that... but we'd have to scale it based on votes. Naturally each team wouldn't get the same amount of votes and I don't think percentages would be reliable?

Say 3 people vote, and all predict us to go 4-8.
1 person thinks we'll beat teams a, b, c and d.
the next thinks we'll beat e, f, g and h.
3rd thinks we'll beat i, j, k and l.
If you go by 8%, we're 12-0.
If you go by 50%, we're 0-12.
That's why I just say you average the 3, 4-8 predictions.
Also, I may see a team as an underdog in all 12 of their games; but I still think that team will win 3. Not sure which 3, but they'll get their share of the games that look close.
Now if you really want to go crazy, wait until the predictions for all 12 teams are in; and then, I think, you could use a 50% threshold for each conference game. There will be inconsistencies (some will vote for TU to beat Memphis when evaluating TU; and when they get to Memphis, they may pick Memphis to beat Tulane).

I think Tulsa will be much improved, but I think Tulane catches them off guard looking ahead to Oklahoma in the Hurricanes opening game.

A win over GT @ home would be awesome, but I think the Jackets knock off Tulane in a close one right before Tulane stops SE La., and upsets Duke and Rutgers on the road.

UConn goes to New Orleans and leaves feeling the way ECU did last year leaving Tulane 2-0 in conference and feeling good.

Then a tough 3 game stretch losing to UCF, Cincy and Houston before winning against Memphis back home.

ECU will be looking for retribution from last years overtime loss back home in Greenville and could be looking to get back on track after a potential loss to Cincinnati the week before. Wave lose in a tight game.

If the Wave lose either one of the Duke / Rutgers games or any other single picked win, then the Temple game might be to become bowl eligible. Edge Tulane.

7-5 overall and 4-4 in conference.

I agree with you. 7-5 overall and 4-4 in conference. Bowl eligible.

On looking at how your poll is structured, the percentage simply means what percentage of all win votes that games get. So as I write this, we have a cumulative total of 107 win votes, so the fact that 23 of those votes are v. Southeastern and that comprises 21.5% of all the votes for wins we have, doesn't mean much of anything.
If it also recorded the loss votes, then you could do a weighted average. Or just divide those 107 win votes by the number of people who have voted.

(05-25-2014 06:56 PM)DrBox Wrote:  On looking at how your poll is structured, the percentage simply means what percentage of all win votes that games get. So as I write this, we have a cumulative total of 107 win votes, so the fact that 23 of those votes are v. Southeastern and that comprises 21.5% of all the votes for wins we have, doesn't mean much of anything.
If it also recorded the loss votes, then you could do a weighted average. Or just divide those 107 win votes by the number of people who have voted.

Yes my thoughts exactly. I just have a sneaking suspicion that we can still use these results to base a quantitative measure for an overall record.

I think, for high sample sizes, we might still be able to rely on that 8-12% number.

Or, we could simply make a thread at the end of the series, measuring qualitatively, whether a team is unlikely, neutral, or likely to win a game, and make a range of records based off of that.

(05-25-2014 06:56 PM)DrBox Wrote:  On looking at how your poll is structured, the percentage simply means what percentage of all win votes that games get. So as I write this, we have a cumulative total of 107 win votes, so the fact that 23 of those votes are v. Southeastern and that comprises 21.5% of all the votes for wins we have, doesn't mean much of anything.
If it also recorded the loss votes, then you could do a weighted average. Or just divide those 107 win votes by the number of people who have voted.

Haven't really researched Tulane yet. However the strength of their team last year was their front 7. The offense was pretty pedestrian. How does the front 7 look this year? I know you guys had a big transfer from LSU starting at DT and think he is gone.

Five to six wins is a successful season given how low this program had fallen in the last decade. 5-6 wins and the recruiting successes continue and this team becomes a contender in the conference in the not too distant future. I think if the above unfolds, they will be a bowl team in the top 4 of this conference in two seasons. There is just so much talent here in Southeast LA that if they can keep just some of it here, they will field very competitive teams.

Wild card will have to be what the new President (who starts this summer) thinks and does with athletics overall. It is well documented about the problems of the athletic director. But there are more things that need to be fixed/addressed for Tulane to have success in all the major sports.

FCS SE Louisiana has a bunch of P5 transfers. Even that game isn't a guarantee for Tulane.

(05-25-2014 06:59 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(05-25-2014 06:56 PM)DrBox Wrote:  On looking at how your poll is structured, the percentage simply means what percentage of all win votes that games get. So as I write this, we have a cumulative total of 107 win votes, so the fact that 23 of those votes are v. Southeastern and that comprises 21.5% of all the votes for wins we have, doesn't mean much of anything.
If it also recorded the loss votes, then you could do a weighted average. Or just divide those 107 win votes by the number of people who have voted.

Yes my thoughts exactly. I just have a sneaking suspicion that we can still use these results to base a quantitative measure for an overall record.

I think, for high sample sizes, we might still be able to rely on that 8-12% number.

Or, we could simply make a thread at the end of the series, measuring qualitatively, whether a team is unlikely, neutral, or likely to win a game, and make a range of records based off of that.

Divide the total votes by the number of games (12) and if a game gets a vote total over that number it's a win prediction while a number under that total is a loss prediction.

(05-25-2014 06:14 PM)ECUPirated Wrote:  I think Tulsa will be much improved, but I think Tulane catches them off guard looking ahead to Oklahoma in the Hurricanes opening game.

A win over GT @ home would be awesome, but I think the Jackets knock off Tulane in a close one right before Tulane stops SE La., and upsets Duke and Rutgers on the road.

UConn goes to New Orleans and leaves feeling the way ECU did last year leaving Tulane 2-0 in conference and feeling good.

Then a tough 3 game stretch losing to UCF, Cincy and Houston before winning against Memphis back home.

ECU will be looking for retribution from last years overtime loss back home in Greenville and could be looking to get back on track after a potential loss to Cincinnati the week before. Wave lose in a tight game.

If the Wave lose either one of the Duke / Rutgers games or any other single picked win, then the Temple game might be to become bowl eligible. Edge Tulane.

7-5 overall and 4-4 in conference.

*HURRICANE'S* it's a singular possessive. Miami are the hurricanes.
Also, I don't think Tulane wins at Tulsa in our first home opener for the season in something like 8-10 years... we almost beat them at their place and that was with a wide-eyed freshman quarterback and a serious host of injuries... we'll be better than most people are giving us credit for.

(05-25-2014 03:23 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  Tulane fans can vote, but please keep homerism to a minimum so as not to skew results.

Vote for each victory you think Tulane will get this season

Reading Material:
Paul Myerberg on Tulane

SBNation on Tulane

OOC in bold

Tulane Football Schedule:
• @ Tulsa - Thursday Aug. 28th - H.A. Chapman Stadium
• vs. Georgia Tech - Saturday Sept. 6th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
• vs. SE Louisiana - Saturday Sept. 13th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
• @ Duke - Saturday Sept. 20th - Wallace Wade Stadium
• @ Rutgers - Saturday Sept. 27th - High Point Solutions Stadium
• vs. UConn - Saturday Oct. 11th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
• @ UCF - Saturday Oct. 18th - Brighthouse Networks Stadium
• vs. Cincinnati - Friday Oct. 31 - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
• @ Houston - Saturday Nov. 8th - Houston Football Stadium
• vs. Memphis - Saturday Nov. 15th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
• @ East Carolina - Saturday Nov. 22nd - Bagwell Field at Dowdy Ficklen Stadium
• vs. Temple - Saturday Dec. 6th - Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
  

WINS: Tulsa, SELA, Rutgers, UConn, Memphis, Temple
LOSSES: G. Tech, Duke, UCF, Cincy, Houston, East Carolina

6-6 (4-4)

(05-25-2014 06:59 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(05-25-2014 06:56 PM)DrBox Wrote:  On looking at how your poll is structured, the percentage simply means what percentage of all win votes that games get. So as I write this, we have a cumulative total of 107 win votes, so the fact that 23 of those votes are v. Southeastern and that comprises 21.5% of all the votes for wins we have, doesn't mean much of anything.
If it also recorded the loss votes, then you could do a weighted average. Or just divide those 107 win votes by the number of people who have voted.

Yes my thoughts exactly. I just have a sneaking suspicion that we can still use these results to base a quantitative measure for an overall record.

I think, for high sample sizes, we might still be able to rely on that 8-12% number.

Or, we could simply make a thread at the end of the series, measuring qualitatively, whether a team is unlikely, neutral, or likely to win a game, and make a range of records based off of that.

I feel like the SLU game would make a good proxy to count the voters - SLU should be a nearly-unanimous win. Thus you could just divide the rest of the results by the number of votes that SLU got, and any team that gets more than 50% of those votes is a predicted win.