(05-23-2014 12:16 PM)Miami (Oh) Yeah ! Wrote: Scheduling is typically done at least 2-years in advance meaning UMass needs to be filling their schedule immediately.
But how do they fill their schedule? Do they assume in 2016 they will be independent and fill the entire 2016 schedule (if they even can) and then what happens if they get a conference invite? Do they have to break 8 contracts and pay penalties? Do they leave 8 slots open in 2016 hoping to find a home which is looking likely to never happen?
The more I look into it the more it seems to me UMass is hosed in 2016. Independence doesn't appear an option in any way. They won't be able to fill a schedule with 6 home games possibly.
- There is more emphasis on Strength of Schedule in 2016 because of the College Football Playoff emphasis on it. Who would want to schedule UMass? Especially UMass away AT UMass?
- UMass borrowed early by scheduling 2-for-1 games with BCS teams early to get them to UMass and must now pay them back with road games. If you look at their 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 schedules they are already committed for away games, and have no home games scheduled. Obviously they can't do anymore 2-for-1 deals or this problem will get worse.
- 2016 is when conferences like the Big Ten and PAC12 are going to 9-game conference schedules and SEC/ACC are putting criteria on only other P5 conferences can be scheduled thus leaving opportunities even tighter in 2016.
- Other teams are already completely booked in 2016 and committed to their available OOC away games they could schedule. For instance Temple, a team UMass would probably want to schedule a home for home game with in 2016, can't schedule a game even if they wanted to because their 2016 schedule is already completely booked and committed with 8 AAC games and 4 OOC already committed to Stony Brook, Army, Charlotte, and Penn State.
UMass right now has a 2016 schedule of 2 away games and needs 6 Home games.
Who has availability and motivation to schedule UMass AT UMass in 2016?
I don't see how they fill a schedule no matter how hard they try. And none of that considers no bowls, no post-season, no TV, no CFP money, no identity or conference championship to play for.
No recruit wants to sign for a team that has nothing to play for. No rings, no bowls, no identity. If they think they are a bad program now, it will only get worse the longer they stay in limbo. Their only glimmer of hope in their eyes is bringing back an old FCS-level coach who makes $200K who is installing new playbooks. Their 2014 schedule shows them a near automatic 0-5 start with some hefty blow-outs. When they are already demoralized at 0-5 staring down a MAC schedule that isn't much easier, reality and panic will start to set in for UMass and recruits, fans, and transfers may be jumping ship left and right. BYU even is having trouble filling a schedule, but who knows?, maybe UMass can pull it off?
In another thread, somebody stated that UMASS should have accepted the MAC offer, to keep football alive and clean up with NCAA bids by winning the conference yearly. Don't know if any of his is as easy as it sounds, but I think it was there only realistic option in a football-centric collegiate world.
(05-23-2014 11:20 PM)Kittonhead Wrote: [quote='jdgaucho' pid='10776922' dateline='1400904167']
Is UMass that committed to the Atlantic 10, to the point they would only leave for the AAC??
UMASS FB ONLY keeps its options only.
Was in the Atlantic 10 FB conference, then the CAA and now the MAC.
We'd take an AAC FB ONLY in a heartbeat.
Are you a ******* in real life or just a message board persona?
Ah, I see.
Since you put so much emphasis on such videos, allow me to show you Ohio's place in the universe.
(05-24-2014 12:47 AM)fishpro1098 Wrote: In another thread, somebody stated that UMASS should have accepted the MAC offer, to keep football alive and clean up with NCAA bids by winning the conference yearly. Don't know if any of his is as easy as it sounds, but I think it was there only realistic option in a football-centric collegiate world.
I'm sure the telephone still works.
How does the MAC share tournament money? If it's unbalanced, UMass could keep most of what it earns. If it has to be split 13, or most likely 14 ways, then joining the MAC would never pay for itself.
The only thing that helps UMass is that they are the only FBS program that wants in the Sun Belt. If the Sun Belt stays at 11, UMass could theoretically play 8 Sun Belt games as an independent because of the byes in the conference schedule. At that point the SBC might as well let them in the conference and take the CFP money.
(05-24-2014 12:47 AM)fishpro1098 Wrote: In another thread, somebody stated that UMASS should have accepted the MAC offer, to keep football alive and clean up with NCAA bids by winning the conference yearly. Don't know if any of his is as easy as it sounds, but I think it was there only realistic option in a football-centric collegiate world.
I'm sure the telephone still works.
Yes. Charlotte made a similar move, moving from the multi-bid A10 to the 1 or 2 bid C-USA for the sake of football. But with UAB, UTEP, WKU, ODU, etc, I think C-USA has a higher basketball ceiling than the MAC.
The problem is that since conferences share the money, even if you are the team going to the tourney every year you make much less in a 1-bid league than you would in a 3-6 bid league like the A10.
(This post was last modified: 05-24-2014 07:29 AM by Chappy.)
UMass has at least a year before they have to worry about scheduling and even 2 years before they would have to hit panic mode for scheduling as an independent. There will probably be a Sunbelt invite down the road before all is said and done since they aren't available for the Sunbelt for 2 years with out a financial penalty. The timing and contract just has to be worked out at this time and there is no rush at this time for either UMass or the Sunbelt with the two year window. UMass would probably pay the $250k penalty to move after one more year knowing that they would pick up a full $1 million dollar CFP share in the move. If the Sunbelt does not take them then there are other simple solutions:
UMass continues to play a MAC schedule as an OOC opponent for a couple of years while filling in replacement games down the road.
UMass fills in with Sunbelt games OOC since the Sunbelt only has 11 teams. It would set up a scheduling pattern for the 12th team when they choose it and it is not UMass.
UMass plays the eastern MAC as OOC games and fills in the rest with Sunbelt teams, American teams and CUSA teams OOC until a conference slot becomes available in the next realignment go around which might bring UMass into the American as a replacement for Cinn or UConn. In this case they would pick up the $250k CFP check. There are enough bowls floating for an at large berth if they are eligible at the end of the season.
Alternate scenarios:
UMass to the American all sports with Army FB only.
UMass remains in the MAC FB only with James Madison FB only (JM places their other sports in the A-10 or leaves them in the CAA if they can).
UMass remains in the MAC FB only with Army FB only.
The future scenarios are endless for UMass to remain D1 which the school administration still remains committed to.
(This post was last modified: 05-24-2014 07:52 AM by carolinaknights.)
(05-24-2014 07:48 AM)carolinaknights Wrote: UMass has at least a year before they have to worry about scheduling and even 2 years before they would have to hit panic mode for scheduling as an independent.
No, this is one point the OP got spot on ... an independent has to schedule ahead. The only game that can be safely left to the last minute is the FCS buy game, since there are a number of FCS buy game alternatives in New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic.
Quote: There will probably be a Sunbelt invite down the road before all is said and done since they aren't available for the Sunbelt for 2 years with out a financial penalty.
When all is said and done, the benefits to the Sunbelt could well be seen as tenuous, and if the 9th school (lining them up from most in favor to least in favor) thinks they aren't there, then there's not 9 votes to get a temporary haven in the Sunbelt.
(05-23-2014 06:15 PM)ken d Wrote: For 2016, UMass may need to sacrifice revenue for home games. I don't think there's any rule that says they can't split the gate with FBS schools willing to play in Amherst.
There are three schools very close geographically: Boston College, UConn and Army. UConn should consider helping them out, if for no reason other than the karma might come back to help them in the future as they look for a P5 conference to rescue them. I can't see where they have a lot of schools on their future schedules yet. Buffalo is also possible.
This is a buy time strategy, but if it doesn't work out the down side can't be much worse than they are facing now.
We need to schedule people for karma? If your karma logic holds, then the ACC should implode for their behavior.
Independence will be very difficult for UMass. That said, a far more isolated Idaho was able to pull off a full scedule on very short notice. In fact, they had a fairly decent schedule. Given the UMass location--- with more nearby choices, I think UMass can survive. It likely will be very tough, but I suspect UMass should have no more trouble getting games than Idaho did.
I'd guess Army, Navy, and BYU are all good candidates for the schedule. Nearby Buffalo would be a good option. Probably an FCS school. Some late season body bag games vs SEC schools. The Sunbelt with 11 will always have a team open every week due to having an odd number of schools---so there are going to be some late season G5 options. The "neutral" game site that actually functions more as an opponents home game will also help UMass meet minimal FBS requirements. Fill in with home-and-homes vs recent move ups and G5 teams hoping for bowl elligibilty---and I'd guess UMass can cobble something together.
(05-23-2014 10:47 PM)Sam Minuteman Wrote: Has anyone mentioned the idea of trading basketball games for football? Lately UMass has been giving the MAC 4 games per year 2 home and 2 away. So there is a precedent for giving up some crappy RPI hoops games to help football. ...
crappy rpi teams? you had two top 100 teams this year and last year hosted a team coming off of a Sweet 16 run. And what did the MAC get in return- 4 games with a program that hasn't danced since the Spice Girls were still together but thinks playing the MAC is beneath them. Spare me the cheap insults.
What's their record vs. MAC schools in hoops since the deal was in place?
(This post was last modified: 05-24-2014 09:18 AM by esayem.)
(05-24-2014 06:58 AM)chargeradio Wrote: How does the MAC share tournament money? If it's unbalanced, UMass could keep most of what it earns. If it has to be split 13, or most likely 14 ways, then joining the MAC would never pay for itself.
Its unbalanced, but not as unbalanced as the A10 at 75%:25%. And UMass leaves their A10 money behind if they leave ... it doesn't follow them out the door ... so are down some fraction of a unit for any year that they would have gone to the NCAA tournament from either conference. And they are down the 0.75 unit from this last tournament if they leave ... whether they "would have gone" from the MAC or not, they didn't, so its primarily the years when they wouldn't have gone from the A10 and do go from the MAC that is a net gain ...
... and of course, UMass BBall fans would like to think that they would normally go to the tournament out of the A10, and the past decade is just an anomaly.
Quote: The only thing that helps UMass is that they are the only FBS program that wants in the Sun Belt. If the Sun Belt stays at 11, UMass could theoretically play 8 Sun Belt games as an independent because of the byes in the conference schedule.
Though there's no certainty how many of those Sunbelt schools would want to play those games on home and home terms.
A more likely scheduling agreement would agree to place up to four games from late October to early November in the bye schedule slots in return for offsetting home and away OOC BBall games for the Sunbelt schools that are interested, with each side picking two schools from the pool of schools that put their name in, and the Sunbelt guaranteeing UMass will have Away-Home-Away-Home scheduling in the four week window.
With three home games under their belt out of five games in their schedule, between the FCS buy game and that agreement, UMass would surely get two more home games out of the other seven.
Doesn't Mass-NH put 50,000 in Foxboro
in a conf u need OOG, put your OOC sch together now [BC, Army]
Conn should at least look at playing in Foxboro & see if there are advantages for Conn
MAC should probably keep them in rotation & BB games. a lot of MAC schools went bowling while Mass was there
I could see BYU in Foxboro
Sch schools in conf you want to join, AAC had any brains, they help
(05-24-2014 07:48 AM)carolinaknights Wrote: UMass plays the eastern MAC as OOC games and fills in the rest with Sunbelt teams, American teams and CUSA teams OOC until a conference slot becomes available in the next realignment go around which might bring UMass into the American as a replacement for Cinn or UConn. In this case they would pick up the $250k CFP check. There are enough bowls floating for an at large berth if they are eligible at the end of the season.
Alternate scenarios:
UMass to the American all sports with Army FB only.
UMass remains in the MAC FB only with James Madison FB only (JM places their other sports in the A-10 or leaves them in the CAA if they can).
UMass remains in the MAC FB only with Army FB only.
The future scenarios are endless for UMass to remain D1 which the school administration still remains committed to.
A couple of things.
1. The MAC is done with UMass. Bridge to New England set on fire and a fortress has been erected around the MAC footprint. There is no interest in going outside the fortress anymore.
2. UMass isn't getting into the AAC unless UConn goes. UConn is a solid no against it as they are New England's top college sports team (sorry BC) and have nothing to gain by adding them in. AAC has specifically said they do not want to add another school east of Temple into the conference using plain common sense.
3. The best chance UMass has for getting into the AAC is a FB ONLY situation where after taking a hit in membership, the AAC ends up with a 10/12 split needing a FB member to balance. I hate to break it to the board but there is ZERO interest in UMass Olympic sports.
(05-23-2014 06:15 PM)ken d Wrote: For 2016, UMass may need to sacrifice revenue for home games. I don't think there's any rule that says they can't split the gate with FBS schools willing to play in Amherst.
There are three schools very close geographically: Boston College, UConn and Army. UConn should consider helping them out, if for no reason other than the karma might come back to help them in the future as they look for a P5 conference to rescue them. I can't see where they have a lot of schools on their future schedules yet. Buffalo is also possible.
This is a buy time strategy, but if it doesn't work out the down side can't be much worse than they are facing now.
We need to schedule people for karma? If your karma logic holds, then the ACC should implode for their behavior.
Doing favors for your neighbors is always a good idea. You never know when you are going to need a friend down the road.
(05-24-2014 09:51 AM)templefootballfan Wrote: Doesn't Mass-NH put 50,000 in Foxboro
in a conf u need OOG, put your OOC sch together now [BC, Army]
Conn should at least look at playing in Foxboro & see if there are advantages for Conn
MAC should probably keep them in rotation & BB games. a lot of MAC schools went bowling while Mass was there
I could see BYU in Foxboro
Sch schools in conf you want to join, AAC had any brains, they help
UMass-NH put 33,000 in the seats.
I don't see it in UConn's interest to play UMass. UConn is the best sports brand in New England and doesn't want to legitimize UMass.
Buffalo-UMass would be a nice annual series for both schools. Make it a football and basketball series.
The phone is ringing off the hook to schedule UMass because they are a guaranteed W for any school. That being said the upper tier MAC schools like NIU, Ohio and Toledo are upgrading schedules and wouldn't want to waste time but I could see EMU and Akron having interest in an attempt to inflate their records to 6-6 and land in a bowl.
(This post was last modified: 05-24-2014 10:17 AM by Kittonhead.)
