(05-21-2014 10:02 AM)adcorbett Wrote: Survey says: Yes it's lame. The article you linked, and I quoted, does mention it. If he wants to talk about another article, he can start his own thread, and look for his own responses. However, it is very clear, it specifically mentions the city, and lists the subscribers in the City they will reach with this deal.
You guys are easily fooled by bloggers' idiocy. First off, he assumes 2 million of Time Warner's NY subscribers are in NYC even though TW owns the entire state of New York which has 2.5x as many residents as downstate has. And, while TW only competes with Verizon upstate (Comcast and Cablevision have low tens of thousands in the state), in NYC it competes with 4 different systems including Comcast (formerly Charter), RCN, Verizon, and Cablevision.
Then, consider that 22% of these customers are NO CABLE and only internet/phone.
2.6m x .22 = 2 million
2 million x .4 (% of state population in NYC) = 800,000.
AT BEST, when you consider the competition TWC faces in NYC.
The number of NY TW subscribers in NYC is AT BEST 1/4 of the number he stated.
As I said above, the actual article about the agreement says nothing about NYC, and only mentions NJ/NY DMA. It doesn't give a breakdown. You then have this blogger assigning $1 per sub a month to NYC's population. Which is total speculation based on nothing. And his numbers are totally wrong on top of it.
It should be nobody's surprise that the BTN has wrapped up NJ. That's as expected. If they didn't know they were going to conquer that, they never would have added Rutgers. The next thing though is to see what the subs will be region by region within the NYC DMA, because I can tell you for a fact, they are different according to each locality, even within the same system. Cablevision charges a different rate for SNY in Fairfield than it does in Westchester.
Given how rich this area is, I expect that his estimate of $1 per sub for BTN is rather conservative in New Jersey. After all, SNY is charging $2.60+ in Connecticut for the Mets and UConn. But even if $1 a month is conservative, it would be crazy to multiply that number times NYC DMA households (which far outnumber the NJ households who will pay that and more inside the NYC DMA).