The two biggest items separating the American from the P5 is TV deal and attendance. Right now ACC is is the Lowest p5 with an average attendance of 49.9k. The current American lineup would average 30.2k based on 3 year average and 32.8k if you use everyones best year of the three.

If we use potential highs such as 40k for Memphis(I have heard they are turning things around) 45 UCF, USF, ECU, 38K Uconn, Cincy, Houston, Navy, and other reachable numbers for the rest of the league(20-32K depending on team). Best case number 35.9k(Yes I know not likely)

With addition of Fresno St, BYU, Army, AF, BYU, SDSU
the average jumps to 32.9K and 35.3K.
The best case Number jumps to 37.7k


All 18 team best case number is 37.7k
But if you Take away 4, In this Case Boise, Temple, Tulsa, Tulane(not advocating dropping anyone) you get a best case number of 40.22K

40K is where we need to be as a league on average. This will get us within spitting distance of the ACC(49.9K) and PAC(53.5)

This is not advocating or detracting from any potential expansion, just wanted to see how close we could get to the P5 in attendance.



http://www.kenn.com/the_blog/?page_id=5854

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_r...e/2013.pdf

I think a 40K average is a major inflection point. If we cross that barrier, we are essentially a conference that has a tremendous amount of proven fan interest. That makes the kind of "tweener" media deal we desire far more likely. It also would make us far more interesting to a number of bowls in our footprint.

(05-15-2014 02:08 PM)Piratelife4me Wrote:  The two biggest items separating the American from the P5 is TV deal and attendance.

I'd say TV money and guaranteed access to one of the contract bowls are the two biggest items separating the American and P5.

An important thing to note: 30K for Tulane and Tulsa is an absolutely packed house. Packed houses look good on TV.

I'm worried about how well AAC schools will do in non-conference play. I do believe that you can easily schedule over your head.

(05-15-2014 02:37 PM)UofLgrad07 Wrote:  

(05-15-2014 02:08 PM)Piratelife4me Wrote:  The two biggest items separating the American from the P5 is TV deal and attendance.

I'd say TV money and guaranteed access to one of the contract bowls are the two biggest items separating the American and P5.

TV money and access bowl come when the fan base comes.

(05-15-2014 02:08 PM)Piratelife4me Wrote:  With addition of Fresno St, BYU, Army, AF, BYU, SDSU
the average jumps to 32.9K and 35.3K.
The best case Number jumps to 37.7k

Army (38K), Fresno (41K), and Air Force (46K) just don't have the potential, IMHO. If you're going to drive the average to 40K, you have to think bigger. BYU (64K) and SDSU (70K) and their stadiums do.

UTSA has potential, surprisingly. The Road Runners actually averaged 29K in 2013 as a reclassifying team. Home schedule included Oklahoma St., Houston, Rice, Tulane, UAB, and Louisiana Tech. The Alamo Dome seats 65K and is expandable up to 72K. Worth keeping an eye on, at least.

So, I would place the top contenders, from a simple attendance potential perspective as:

BYU - stadium holds 64K, they've averaged over 60K for a decade+
SDSU - 70K - averaged 33K in 2013
UTSA - 65K -averaged 29K in a reclassifying year

Also considered:
UTEP - 51K - averaged 28K in 2013
Hawai'i - 50K - averaged 30K in 2013
Air Force - 46K - averaged 32K in 2013
Fresno 41K - averaged 36K in 2013

[Skipped UAB and Georgia State, although huge stadiums, they only get 10-15K right now. Too big of a gap]

I like Fresno and SDSU.

Most our schools are big state schools, we have the alumni and students to draw big attendances. Just need to work on making them care. Winning BCS bowls helps that cause

Temple not only needs wins to improve attendance but also worthwhile opponents. In 2015 PSU and Notre Dame are coming. That's gonna be a peak year.

The ACC's heart and soul is FSU, Clemson, and VT. The American doesn't have any school like this, although I'd probably say the closest is ECU. If we had three ECU-types that put 45k in the stands rain or shine, that would go a long way in locking up a contract bowl. But I gotta give it to them. ECU fans talk alotta crap on these message boards, but they show up to games and support their team as well as any fan base outside the cartel, and better than most schools in it. We need a couple of more schools to step up and be like that. Hopefully mines becomes one of them.

Damnit! Tricked into open yet ANOTHER expansion thread

(05-15-2014 06:02 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(05-15-2014 02:08 PM)Piratelife4me Wrote:  With addition of Fresno St, BYU, Army, AF, BYU, SDSU
the average jumps to 32.9K and 35.3K.
The best case Number jumps to 37.7k

Army (38K), Fresno (41K), and Air Force (46K) just don't have the potential, IMHO. If you're going to drive the average to 40K, you have to think bigger. BYU (64K) and SDSU (70K) and their stadiums do.

UTSA has potential, surprisingly. The Road Runners actually averaged 29K in 2013 as a reclassifying team. Home schedule included Oklahoma St., Houston, Rice, Tulane, UAB, and Louisiana Tech. The Alamo Dome seats 65K and is expandable up to 72K. Worth keeping an eye on, at least.

So, I would place the top contenders, from a simple attendance potential perspective as:

BYU - stadium holds 64K, they've averaged over 60K for a decade+
SDSU - 70K - averaged 33K in 2013
UTSA - 65K -averaged 29K in a reclassifying year

Also considered:
UTEP - 51K - averaged 28K in 2013
Hawai'i - 50K - averaged 30K in 2013
Air Force - 46K - averaged 32K in 2013
Fresno 41K - averaged 36K in 2013

[Skipped UAB and Georgia State, although huge stadiums, they only get 10-15K right now. Too big of a gap]

I agree, but we need teams that also draw rating. Need to find the fine mix between attendance and ratings. The UTSA's of world will not get those home games(or draw ratings) if they keep winning. Once they become a threat they will get the Houston treatment from texas/b12 schools. Plus I am not sold on colleges that play at pro-venues. There is a lot of hit and miss there. Also I always thought whoever had Hawaii in their conference was sort of a gimmick, not sure where are at that point yet... I appreciate the input, you raised a few solid points

(05-15-2014 10:05 PM)Piratelife4me Wrote:  

(05-15-2014 06:02 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(05-15-2014 02:08 PM)Piratelife4me Wrote:  With addition of Fresno St, BYU, Army, AF, BYU, SDSU
the average jumps to 32.9K and 35.3K.
The best case Number jumps to 37.7k

Army (38K), Fresno (41K), and Air Force (46K) just don't have the potential, IMHO. If you're going to drive the average to 40K, you have to think bigger. BYU (64K) and SDSU (70K) and their stadiums do.

UTSA has potential, surprisingly. The Road Runners actually averaged 29K in 2013 as a reclassifying team. Home schedule included Oklahoma St., Houston, Rice, Tulane, UAB, and Louisiana Tech. The Alamo Dome seats 65K and is expandable up to 72K. Worth keeping an eye on, at least.

So, I would place the top contenders, from a simple attendance potential perspective as:

BYU - stadium holds 64K, they've averaged over 60K for a decade+
SDSU - 70K - averaged 33K in 2013
UTSA - 65K -averaged 29K in a reclassifying year

Also considered:
UTEP - 51K - averaged 28K in 2013
Hawai'i - 50K - averaged 30K in 2013
Air Force - 46K - averaged 32K in 2013
Fresno 41K - averaged 36K in 2013

[Skipped UAB and Georgia State, although huge stadiums, they only get 10-15K right now. Too big of a gap]

I agree, but we need teams that also draw rating. Need to find the fine mix between attendance and ratings. The UTSA's of world will not get those home games(or draw ratings) if they keep winning. Once they become a threat they will get the Houston treatment from texas/b12 schools. Plus I am not sold on colleges that play at pro-venues. There is a lot of hit and miss there. Also I always thought whoever had Hawaii in their conference was sort of a gimmick, not sure where are at that point yet... I appreciate the input, you raised a few solid points

UTSA's of the world also run huge discount/almost free promotions - buy a chicken meal get a free ticket...there is a huge difference between schools who charge $45+ per seat and those who charge $10 a seat or free...not say'in we have not had a few promotions along the way for those strange games that end up on student breaks or odd night games but it is the exception and not the rule.

(05-15-2014 08:20 PM)mascotswinchampionships Wrote:  Temple not only needs wins to improve attendance but also worthwhile opponents. In 2015 PSU and Notre Dame are coming. That's gonna be a peak year.

I agree. Teams with the best chance in conference to really make a difference is Temple, Memphis, USF. (Houston&Tulane will improve on their totals due to stadiums) IF Temple could get 40k+ for a year that would be tremendous boost. Memphis has done it before & USF(and some). UCF needs to continue to grow(most growth potential). UCF could average 50k(0r w/e max is) if they just made it mandatory for students to attend so many school functions with 6 of those being football games.

Yes, we need more of this,

(05-15-2014 11:12 PM)ecumbh1999 Wrote:  Yes, we need more of this,

Damn, I can't wait for football season.

(05-15-2014 09:22 PM)Lord2FLI Wrote:  Damnit! Tricked into open yet ANOTHER expansion thread

Seriously, what the hell with more expansion talk? I see no one aside of possibly BYU and Army (and only because we already have Navy) that even remotely move the interest meter or might, and this is a big might, even move the TV contract a little. Not that I'm some expert, just like everyone else here. And what of the scheduling issues with 14 teams, as we see with the SEC and ACC? Please no. We can only hope those with decision making authority simply decide to continue to grow what we have.