(05-21-2014 02:26 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote: Thanks for contributing Terry. This board as been a pretty civil place to discuss realignment, unlike a lot of the net or even the realignment forum here in the Lounge. To answer your question:
I guess I would say that ND gains nothing they desire really. They only keep from being left out. I guess the question would then be if they had to join a conference to still be able to play CFB at the highest level, which conference would they choose of the 3 suggested? I am guessing that the new B10 with all those PAC schools and schools they have played frequently would be their preferred spot, if they had to choose from those 3 conferences, even though they despise the B10. They would have allies in that conference in the PAC schools, especially USC and Stanford. The original B10 schools would be outnumbered by the new schools. Of course, ND goes their own way so maybe they would go to the SEC or 3rd conference, maybe drop to a lower division or drop FB all together, rather than feel forced into a structure they don't want.
In the end the other schools will do what is best for themselves. If that means ND is left out or is forced to join a conference, no power school would shed a tear for them and quite a few might be happy. ND would just be forced to decide if independence is worth giving up CFB at the highest level. I have no clue what they would decide in the end, but I lean towards joining a conference (though maybe not the B10).
I think this is a fairly honest assessment. I just don't see Notre Dame ever dropping football unless it is a health related decision at some point in which case they won't be the only major program to do so. But I don't think it is the other schools that won't shed a tear as much as it would be any networks not named NBC.
If ESPN or FOX could corral them they would. The reason I am an ardent believer in further realignment is because the first few rounds have been about consolidation of product with a reasonable amount of product placement. Rutgers and Maryland to the Big 10 is pure product placement. Missouri to the SEC is pure product placement. In both cases the top two conference's had their product placed in front of more customers. That makes advertising sales for the top two products more lucrative for the networks controlling them. ESPN would be happy to exploit the broad market of Notre Dame's national brand. That's one reason why the ACC is sheltered for the moment. The fact that ESPN owns them outright as far as rights are concerned is another.
Look at the contracts that are in place. ESPN sews up the entire ACC, gains a large stake in Texas, and a reasonable share in Kansas. By doing so they control the greatest reservoir of realignment targets from two disparate conferences. The Big 12 with a miniscule footprint and no peers for targets and the ACC with a odd array of state and public, North and South, basketball and football first schools with the largest market footprint, but the lowest viewing percentages outside of the PAC are both potentially fatally flawed. If one assumes that the PAC is isolated enough geographically to be the least likely to have teams taken from them, then ESPN controls all of the top product necessary to shape the final stages of realignment.
If Notre Dame comes all in then ESPN can make a move for Texas very enticing in an effort to resculpt the conference. If the PAC wants to give up a share of its network ESPN can encourage Texas to move west. If the SECN proves as profitable as some think then ESPN is in a position to do some dramatic product placement from what they hold in the ACC or in Big 12 product they support. They can add even more to the Big 10 if they warm up to the Mouse again (which they may not). But still it places ESPN in the brokers position which also means that FOX needs to come to them for desirable product which is yet more leverage over the process.
Ask yourselves these questions. If the SECN is successful why would ESPN want the ACC to open as a competitor? This is why the ACCN is several years away. If the SECN is successful the two will either be bundled for product placement, or merged either by a partial absorption of the ACC into the SEC or perhaps even a full absorption although the former would be far more profitable. Do you think not? Since the SEC is the leader in viewers nationwide and by a fairly wide margin and the ACC really fails to deliver their own market, why wouldn't ESPN want SEC product placement in ACC markets? The game on their end is advertising rates and sustainable advertising. Live events still draw good rates because people are forced to see the commercials. This is one reason that college sports, although nowhere nearly as popular as the NFL, can draw premium ad rates. Everything besides live events can be viewed with the means of skipping ads. Ad money pays for realignment. Realignment enhances ad money.
Structure? Structure will become the final tool for maximizing profits. When the final rounds of realignment are negotiated product placement will still be at the forefront, but structure will also be sought which will engage the widest number of viewers nationwide until the deepest part of the season possible. We will move to 4 conferences because 4 conferences yield 4 champions which engage all four regions of the country's interest until the completion of the semifinals.
So what does this mean? It means that the need for regionalism will again become important. The notion that you can't have two schools from one state will be gone because product placement will be over and structuring will be in. The states that will be split will be large market states on the borders between regions. If four somewhat balanced conferences can be attained that will be our model. If not, three balanced conferences can be created and the network gains through an at large 4th playoff spot which to them will represent the opportunity to maximize the interest in the region of the country they feel will likely be the weakest based upon the three champions. Wild cards in the NFL have done more to sustain regional interest than about any other invention of structure.
Because of the goegraphy of the Big 12 as a boundary area between the Big 10, PAC, and SEC you have seen all three feed off of the middle and lower upper end of that conference already. The Big 12 can now be used to either bolster the PAC and ACC, or the ACC can be used to bolster the Big 12. Reason and geography says the former is far more likely than the latter.
The SEC is not short on strength of product so product placement would still be the network priority for the SEC.
The PAC is weak on distribution and desperately needs central time zone slots in which to open a whole new merchandising vista. A brand couldn't hurt them either.
The Big 10 is now fairly secure with product placement and they need football branding.
The ACC needs football branding desperately.
If it was left to just ESPN, since FOX is a competitor, I think the SEC would land N.C. State and Virginia Tech simply for product placement. The absence of those two schools would not negatively impact the ACC in any dramatic way. So, there would be no further need for the SEC to look West. This is why Clay Travis and others have speculated on this kind of move. Texas to the ACC with a Baylor and T.C.U. along with a West Virginia would add the football cache that the ACC needs to increase their brand in the most viewed sport and the sales of the two networks (SEC/ACC) in a bundle then make a great deal of sense.
If the PAC plays ball with ESPN Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State make sense for them. I know they don't want Oklahoma State, but the Cowboys are top 30 in profitability and are an upper mid-tier football program. That's the price for taking Oklahoma.
The drawback here is that only leaves Kansas and Iowa State for the Big 10. This gets solved if the PAC is compensated for taking Oklahoma State without Oklahoma and adding Iowa State. The PAC now has 4 central time zone states and a scheduling arrangement with the Big 10. Throw in a bundling of the PACN with the BTN and Oklahoma and Kansas are off to the Big 10 and both conferences get much broader distribution. Maybe FOX even gets 51% of the PACN in the process.
The PAC is happy with the surge in distribution and a new time zone in which to sell product. Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Iowa State now have rivalry games with Big 10 members. And the PAC has a piece of the Texas market.
The Big 10 keeps peace within its ranks by having some Midwest expansion with two national brand schools and gets to hype the reunion of Oklahoma and Nebraska and thanks to bundling is now more widely distributed in the Pacific time zone.
The SEC has the entire Southeast as a footprint and 19 million more potential viewers so they are happy.
The ACC gets a big boost up with Texas and Notre Dame together, they add 28 million viewers and don't lose footprint in the process and gain a piggyback for their network with the most viewed conference in the nation.
From a network standpoint those are big wins for balance, structure, and national interest.
The whittling may take a while and the threat of moving to 3 conferences may have to look like a reality before agreement is achieved, but I still look for something like this to happen. If the ACC rejects it or the PAC refuses the schools offered then the 3 conferences scenario with an uber Big 10 and uber SEC become possible.