(05-09-2014 11:21 AM)Smaug Wrote: (05-09-2014 11:18 AM)ark30inf Wrote: Don't know.
Then you are the only one who doesn't.
From an AState perspective (which is vastly different from our friends in Lafayette) as of TODAY the only motivation based on known facts that AState would have in going C-USA would be to avoid being in an even more addled Sun Belt were we to reject and someone else accept. The CUSA schools that caught our interest are all in the American except USM.
If CUSA called today, we can assume it would mean moving for the 2015-16 season and paying $2 million entry.
We don't know the value of CUSA TV for 2016-17 and beyond because the deal hasn't been cut and there have been no leaks of CUSA trying to negotiate early as has been revealed by the MAC whose deal runs to 2016-17. Maybe CUSA money goes up, maybe it stays the same, maybe it goes down.
Right now maintaining the NCAA revenue stream is speculative. Four returning CUSA were top third, four were bottom third. That's better than 2 SBC in top third and four bottom third but that's not an assurance of multi-bids and the baffling snub of MTSU by the NIT is troubling because that speaks to league perception because they Raiders absolutely had the resume with the December Maine loss the only blemish.
The issue today is you don't shell out $2 million if you don't have some idea how long it will take for cost recovery, the others who joined could match that equity payment vs the proven revenue stream and knew it made financial sense, and in the case of FAU and MTSU they could run the numbers see paying early departure made financial sense. Right now, that doesn't exist. Paying $2 million to join a league that might be splitting revenue 16 or 18 ways and doles out not much more than what is made now doesn't make a great deal of sense.
But if anyone read the thread in question, I think anyone with a fair understanding of business understands that the real value of the Sun Belt is much like the tech company that hasn't produced many hits but has a nice patent portfolio or the small town bank that mysteriously sells for much more than its value because some huge company had a serious need for a bank charter (like the bank in California with three employees that was suddenly a hot commodity because Wal-Mart tried to buy them).
Starting a new conference is hard unless you've got a lot of schools together for a long time and odds are pretty good based on past experience that the CFP would tell a new conference to take a hike until the next contract is signed.
Sun Belt's value (and potentially CUSA's if TV goes south) is in the charter or franchise. The ability to take the seat at the board of directors and on the council and in the CFP instead of starting from scratch. When the BE blew up the hoops schools wanted the brand, football wanted the franchise (and from a football standpoint it was a tainted brand, an asset worth letting go of to keep the hoop schools from dissolving the league). That's why BE is a new legal entity while AAC is just a rebranded BE as far as the NCAA and CFP see them.
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So Who's leaving for the Sun Belt?
