(05-12-2014 07:41 AM)grol Wrote:  As of this morning (was different yesterday), Boyd says no way to have a top 8 RPI. However, I don't think our resumé is Top 8 regardless of RPI rank. Perhaps a conference championship and a tourney win would nudge us to National Seed consideration....but I doubt it.

Sure, because even sweeping LaTech is going to hurt our RPI, but we can remain Top 10 RPI, with the conference championship. The UH game really means nothing; except to us. Let's take a look at the national seed picture, shall we?...

UVA and FSU from the ACC are virtual locks, but that means a 3rd ACC national seed (Miami) is not going to happen, regardless to whether Miami passes us in RPI.

Florida, Indiana and Oregon State appear to be locks (and with FSU and Florida as national seeds, there's another reason Miami is not going to get one regardless to how strong they finish).

When has to believe ULL gets one, despite their putrid SoS, and playing only 4 games vs. Top 50 competition.

That leaves two national seeds remaining. At this point, Vandy and TCU would appear to be the favorites. I would bet that either Vandy or S.Carolina (should they have a great ACC tourney) gets the SEC a second national seed. If TCU beats Baylor next weekend (highly likely), they've probably locked theirs up, regardless to what they do in the Big12 tourney.

So, bottom line, it's not so much an RPI thing that's keeping us out; rather the fact that the SEC is going to get a second national seed (even if we have the higher RPI), and both ULL and TCU would appear to be in the drivers seat, despite our higher RPI.

Having said all that, despite their superior overall resume (save for RPI and road record), if we do win BOTH the regular season and CUSA tournament championships, and TCU fails to win either the regular season championship (OSU still has a game lead on them with only Oklahoma remaining) or Big12 tourney, the Selection Committee just might give us the edge over the Horn Frogs; especially since we're 2-0 against them this year. It IS conceivable, and the Committee would be justified based on criteria.

I just hope beyond hope we are not paired with the Horn Frogs, as their pitching is Top 3 in the country, and their hitting has come alive of late. I'd much rather take my chances with ULL, who are a great hitting team, with several quality pitchers, but have not been tested all year long against elite competition.

(05-12-2014 08:42 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-12-2014 07:41 AM)grol Wrote:  As of this morning (was different yesterday), Boyd says no way to have a top 8 RPI. However, I don't think our resumé is Top 8 regardless of RPI rank. Perhaps a conference championship and a tourney win would nudge us to National Seed consideration....but I doubt it.

Sure, because even sweeping LaTech is going to hurt our RPI, but we can remain Top 10 RPI, with the conference championship. The UH game really means nothing; except to us. Let's take a look at the national seed picture, shall we?...

UVA and FSU from the ACC are virtual locks, but that means a 3rd ACC national seed (Miami) is not going to happen, regardless to whether Miami passes us in RPI.

Florida, Indiana and Oregon State appear to be locks (and with FSU and Florida as national seeds, there's another reason Miami is not going to get one regardless to how strong they finish).

When has to believe ULL gets one, despite their putrid SoS, and playing only 4 games vs. Top 50 competition.

That leaves two national seeds remaining. At this point, Vandy and TCU would appear to be the favorites. I would bet that either Vandy or S.Carolina (should they have a great ACC tourney) gets the SEC a second national seed. If TCU beats Baylor next weekend (highly likely), they've probably locked theirs up, regardless to what they do in the Big12 tourney.

So, bottom line, it's not so much an RPI thing that's keeping us out; rather the fact that the SEC is going to get a second national seed (even if we have the higher RPI), and both ULL and TCU would appear to be in the drivers seat, despite our higher RPI.

Having said all that, despite their superior overall resume (save for RPI and road record), if we do win BOTH the regular season and CUSA tournament championships, and TCU fails to win either the regular season championship (OSU still has a game lead on them with only Oklahoma remaining) or Big12 tourney, the Selection Committee just might give us the edge over the Horn Frogs; especially since we're 2-0 against them this year. It IS conceivable, and the Committee would be justified based on criteria.

I just hope beyond hope we are not paired with the Horn Frogs, as their pitching is Top 3 in the country, and their hitting has come alive of late. I'd much rather take my chances with ULL, who are a great hitting team, with several quality pitchers, but have not been tested all year long against elite competition.

If only the committee pairings had a history of putting a top-tier non-National Seed (like a #9 or #10) with a lower national seed in Supers, rather than one of the best National Seeds.

(05-12-2014 09:04 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  If only the committee pairings had a history of putting a top-tier non-National Seed (like a #9 or #10) with a lower national seed in Supers, rather than one of the best National Seeds.

You know if you're not a national seed you're going to play a really good team on the road for the Super if you win your regional. Assuming the team you're paired with wins theirs, of course. I don't see which national seed it is matters much. I'd be more concerned about who and where than the seed. I'd rather play a high-seeded West Coast or midwest team (e.g., Oregon State, Indiana) than a lower-seeded SEC/ACC team because of fan support, venue, etc. Also, team history has something to do with it - I remember when Kansas State came in for the Super at Reckling they were intimidated by the banner on the practice facility.

I don't know if the Committee has any memory whatsoever, but one would think that after our assignment last year, playing on the West Coast and then on the East Coast, we should be afforded some preferential treatment should we have to travel. I would think that we would be paired with TCU or ULL, which would make the travel much more palatable than last year.

(05-12-2014 10:57 AM)Old Sammy Wrote:  

(05-12-2014 09:04 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  If only the committee pairings had a history of putting a top-tier non-National Seed (like a #9 or #10) with a lower national seed in Supers, rather than one of the best National Seeds.

You know if you're not a national seed you're going to play a really good team on the road for the Super if you win your regional. Assuming the team you're paired with wins theirs, of course. I don't see which national seed it is matters much. I'd be more concerned about who and where than the seed. I'd rather play a high-seeded West Coast or midwest team (e.g., Oregon State, Indiana) than a lower-seeded SEC/ACC team because of fan support, venue, etc. Also, team history has something to do with it - I remember when Kansas State came in for the Super at Reckling they were intimidated by the banner on the practice facility.

I was specifically thinking of the time ('09 I think?) when we were probably the best non-National Seed and we got paired with LSU, a team that was insane that year.

To me, the biggest uncertainty for our post season is do we have enough pitching to win a regional?

I feel pretty good about a best of 3 series. It is the risk of playing 4 (or, heaven forbid) 5 games that scares me.

The CUSA tourney will be an important barometer because it is an 8 team double elimination.

(05-12-2014 11:00 AM)Houston Owl Wrote:  I don't know if the Committee has any memory whatsoever, but one would think that after our assignment last year, playing on the West Coast and then on the East Coast, we should be afforded some preferential treatment should we have to travel. I would think that we would be paired with TCU or ULL, which would make the travel much more palatable than last year.

Funny... I've always wondered whether The Committee had Alzheimers. I guess you're a glass-half-full kind of guy whilst I'm a glass-have-empty kind of guy.

(05-12-2014 11:04 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I was specifically thinking of the time ('09 I think?) when we were probably the best non-National Seed and we got paired with LSU, a team that was insane that year.

Rice got screwed that year. There were very compelling arguments that 39-15 Rice should have been the #7 or #8 national seed over 39-20 Florida (#7) or 41-18 Oklahoma (#8). But Rice wasn't seeded, then was matched up against #3 LSU.

Rice could have been easily paired with the Florida or Oklahoma instead of LSU, which would have been much easier road series. Florida lost its super regional against Southern Miss despite hosting and Oklahoma didn't survive its Regional, meaning Rice would have hosted Arkansas in a Super Regional instead of traveling to LSU.

I don't follow these things nearly as closely as many others, but I'm still bitter over the 2009 seeding, and even more bitter over being paired with LSU. This is why they should seed all 16 teams.

(05-12-2014 04:18 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(05-12-2014 11:04 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I was specifically thinking of the time ('09 I think?) when we were probably the best non-National Seed and we got paired with LSU, a team that was insane that year.

Rice got screwed that year. There were very compelling arguments that 39-15 Rice should have been the #7 or #8 national seed over 39-20 Florida (#7) or 41-18 Oklahoma (#8). But Rice wasn't seeded, then was matched up against #3 LSU.

Rice could have been easily paired with the Florida or Oklahoma instead of LSU, which would have been much easier road series. Florida lost its super regional against Southern Miss despite hosting and Oklahoma didn't survive its Regional, meaning Rice would have hosted Arkansas in a Super Regional instead of traveling to LSU.

I don't follow these things nearly as closely as many others, but I'm still bitter over the 2009 seeding, and even more bitter over being paired with LSU. This is why they should seed all 16 teams.

Ah, yes, the year our conference mate and Selection Committee member, ECU, sold us to the devil in order to get a regional host birth for themselves.

(05-12-2014 04:22 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-12-2014 04:18 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(05-12-2014 11:04 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  I was specifically thinking of the time ('09 I think?) when we were probably the best non-National Seed and we got paired with LSU, a team that was insane that year.

Rice got screwed that year. There were very compelling arguments that 39-15 Rice should have been the #7 or #8 national seed over 39-20 Florida (#7) or 41-18 Oklahoma (#8). But Rice wasn't seeded, then was matched up against #3 LSU.

Rice could have been easily paired with the Florida or Oklahoma instead of LSU, which would have been much easier road series. Florida lost its super regional against Southern Miss despite hosting and Oklahoma didn't survive its Regional, meaning Rice would have hosted Arkansas in a Super Regional instead of traveling to LSU.

I don't follow these things nearly as closely as many others, but I'm still bitter over the 2009 seeding, and even more bitter over being paired with LSU. This is why they should seed all 16 teams.

Ah, yes, the year our conference mate and Selection Committee member, ECU, sold us to the devil in order to get a regional host birth for themselves.

I was a bit worried it wasn't as bad as I remembered it, but I think it was worse.