(05-01-2014 09:56 AM)mrbig Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 04:31 PM)Mademen Wrote:  I agree that there will not be 5 regional hosts in Texas especially with 2 likely hosts in Louisiana. However, given similar resumes, is it not fair to ask why Rice should be chosen ahead of UH should UH hold a 3-0 head to head record? I still think there is a good chance that both Rice and UH host, but unless Rice beats UH in early May, I have a hard time stomaching the Owls having the edge this season.

I'm not saying this to knock UH, but more as a general comment about mid-week games. They just aren't the best reflection of how two teams would perform against each other over a weekend series. Rice has had trouble finding depth at the back of its bullpen and reliable mid-week starters, and that has hurt Rice in mid-week games more than it does during a normal weekend series. UH might be the better team. All other things being close, the 3-0 head-to-head record makes a fairly compelling argument. But 3-0 in mid-week games isn't the same as sweeping a weekend series (which I'm sure you know).

I think the trouble is rather easily explained after replacing the Friday night starter twice. Remember Rice's RPI includes this shuffling, so it is has been a pretty impressive juggling act and grind by Rice. I would love a three game annual series with the Friday night game at one location and the Saturday/Sunday games at the other location. You can still have two mid-week games to get the Glove of Love back to Five games.

(05-01-2014 11:33 AM)13thOwl Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 09:56 AM)mrbig Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 04:31 PM)Mademen Wrote:  I agree that there will not be 5 regional hosts in Texas especially with 2 likely hosts in Louisiana. However, given similar resumes, is it not fair to ask why Rice should be chosen ahead of UH should UH hold a 3-0 head to head record? I still think there is a good chance that both Rice and UH host, but unless Rice beats UH in early May, I have a hard time stomaching the Owls having the edge this season.

I'm not saying this to knock UH, but more as a general comment about mid-week games. They just aren't the best reflection of how two teams would perform against each other over a weekend series. Rice has had trouble finding depth at the back of its bullpen and reliable mid-week starters, and that has hurt Rice in mid-week games more than it does during a normal weekend series. UH might be the better team. All other things being close, the 3-0 head-to-head record makes a fairly compelling argument. But 3-0 in mid-week games isn't the same as sweeping a weekend series (which I'm sure you know).

I think the trouble is rather easily explained after replacing the Friday night starter twice. Remember Rice's RPI includes this shuffling, so it is has been a pretty impressive juggling act and grind by Rice. I would love a three game annual series with the Friday night game at one location and the Saturday/Sunday games at the other location. You can still have two mid-week games to get the Glove of Love back to Five games.

I don't completely buy the mid week vs weekend argument when you're essentially playing the same lineup of position players. Also, I'm pretty sure it's impossible to win a ball game with zero runs on any day of the week as was the case in the 1st game that the 2 teams played. There is very little difference IMO between Rice and UH this year. They are both 2 quality teams.

(05-01-2014 12:20 PM)Mademen Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 11:33 AM)13thOwl Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 09:56 AM)mrbig Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 04:31 PM)Mademen Wrote:  I agree that there will not be 5 regional hosts in Texas especially with 2 likely hosts in Louisiana. However, given similar resumes, is it not fair to ask why Rice should be chosen ahead of UH should UH hold a 3-0 head to head record? I still think there is a good chance that both Rice and UH host, but unless Rice beats UH in early May, I have a hard time stomaching the Owls having the edge this season.

I'm not saying this to knock UH, but more as a general comment about mid-week games. They just aren't the best reflection of how two teams would perform against each other over a weekend series. Rice has had trouble finding depth at the back of its bullpen and reliable mid-week starters, and that has hurt Rice in mid-week games more than it does during a normal weekend series. UH might be the better team. All other things being close, the 3-0 head-to-head record makes a fairly compelling argument. But 3-0 in mid-week games isn't the same as sweeping a weekend series (which I'm sure you know).

I think the trouble is rather easily explained after replacing the Friday night starter twice. Remember Rice's RPI includes this shuffling, so it is has been a pretty impressive juggling act and grind by Rice. I would love a three game annual series with the Friday night game at one location and the Saturday/Sunday games at the other location. You can still have two mid-week games to get the Glove of Love back to Five games.

I don't completely buy the mid week vs weekend argument when you're essentially playing the same lineup of position players. Also, I'm pretty sure it's impossible to win a ball game with zero runs on any day of the week as was the case in the 1st game that the 2 teams played. There is very little difference IMO between Rice and UH this year. They are both 2 quality teams.

Rice's lineup very often fights with one hand tied behind its back when they rest Reeves at catcher. I am only saying this because for Rice this year there is a difference between midweek and weekend. I am not saying this applies to the Rice/UH series, but midweek to weekend in general. I am also not saying UH is a quality team. Ummm, poorly written ideas end now...

(05-01-2014 12:29 PM)13thOwl Wrote:  Rice's lineup very often fights with one hand tied behind its back when they rest Reeves at catcher. I am only saying this because for Rice this year there is a difference between midweek and weekend. I am not saying this applies to the Rice/UH series, but midweek to weekend in general. I am also not saying UH is a quality team. Ummm, poorly written ideas end now...

Perfectly clear to me 13th. Not up to your usual prose, but clear nonetheless.

(05-01-2014 12:20 PM)Mademen Wrote:  I don't completely buy the mid week vs weekend argument when you're essentially playing the same lineup of position players. Also, I'm pretty sure it's impossible to win a ball game with zero runs on any day of the week as was the case in the 1st game that the 2 teams played. There is very little difference IMO between Rice and UH this year. They are both 2 quality teams.

I think the mid-week results argue that pitching depth is one of the differences, and it's apparent looking at the quality of pitching that Rice has had injured that they are all the more similar in the absence of those injuries.

Setting that aside, the two distinguishing factors on the resume are (1) UH has beaten Rice twice, and (2) UH is mid-table in their conference while Rice looks to win yet another conference title. I'd argue that the second difference will matter more to "the committee" than the first, and by a longshot.

(05-01-2014 01:08 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 12:20 PM)Mademen Wrote:  I don't completely buy the mid week vs weekend argument when you're essentially playing the same lineup of position players. Also, I'm pretty sure it's impossible to win a ball game with zero runs on any day of the week as was the case in the 1st game that the 2 teams played. There is very little difference IMO between Rice and UH this year. They are both 2 quality teams.

I think the mid-week results argue that pitching depth is one of the differences, and it's apparent looking at the quality of pitching that Rice has had injured that they are all the more similar in the absence of those injuries.

Setting that aside, the two distinguishing factors on the resume are (1) UH has beaten Rice twice, and (2) UH is mid-table in their conference while Rice looks to win yet another conference title. I'd argue that the second difference will matter more to "the committee" than the first, and by a longshot.

What you said...add Reeves injury causing midweek rest...mumble, mumble...

(05-01-2014 12:20 PM)Mademen Wrote:  I don't completely buy the mid week vs weekend argument when you're essentially playing the same lineup of position players. Also, I'm pretty sure it's impossible to win a ball game with zero runs on any day of the week as was the case in the 1st game that the 2 teams played. There is very little difference IMO between Rice and UH this year. They are both 2 quality teams.

A quick perusal of Rice's schedule shows that we're 24-9 during weekend series vs. 7-6 in midweek games. UH is 23-10 on the weekends and 10-2 in mid-week games. Obviously there are a lot of ways to explain the data, but it also lends credence to the notion that playing Rice on the weekend might be a little different than playing Rice on a Tuesday/Wednesday.

(05-01-2014 09:59 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  And they're NOT 3-0 against us.

Sorry, I'm still used to the good-old-days when they played 5 games for the Silver Glove.

(05-01-2014 01:31 PM)picrig Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 12:20 PM)Mademen Wrote:  I don't completely buy the mid week vs weekend argument when you're essentially playing the same lineup of position players. Also, I'm pretty sure it's impossible to win a ball game with zero runs on any day of the week as was the case in the 1st game that the 2 teams played. There is very little difference IMO between Rice and UH this year. They are both 2 quality teams.

A quick perusal of Rice's schedule shows that we're 24-9 during weekend series vs. 7-6 in midweek games. UH is 23-10 on the weekends and 10-2 in mid-week games. Obviously there are a lot of ways to explain the data, but it also lends credence to the notion that playing Rice on the weekend might be a little different than playing Rice on a Tuesday/Wednesday.

But, toss out those 3 UH wins over Rice and we're 7-3 midweek compared to UH being 7-2.

(05-01-2014 10:35 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 01:31 PM)picrig Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 12:20 PM)Mademen Wrote:  I don't completely buy the mid week vs weekend argument when you're essentially playing the same lineup of position players. Also, I'm pretty sure it's impossible to win a ball game with zero runs on any day of the week as was the case in the 1st game that the 2 teams played. There is very little difference IMO between Rice and UH this year. They are both 2 quality teams.

A quick perusal of Rice's schedule shows that we're 24-9 during weekend series vs. 7-6 in midweek games. UH is 23-10 on the weekends and 10-2 in mid-week games. Obviously there are a lot of ways to explain the data, but it also lends credence to the notion that playing Rice on the weekend might be a little different than playing Rice on a Tuesday/Wednesday.

But, toss out those 3 UH wins over Rice and we're 7-3 midweek compared to UH being 7-2.

Ahem-- we have only lost 2 games to UH this year, with one neutral site game remaining.

(05-01-2014 10:35 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 01:31 PM)picrig Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 12:20 PM)Mademen Wrote:  I don't completely buy the mid week vs weekend argument when you're essentially playing the same lineup of position players. Also, I'm pretty sure it's impossible to win a ball game with zero runs on any day of the week as was the case in the 1st game that the 2 teams played. There is very little difference IMO between Rice and UH this year. They are both 2 quality teams.

A quick perusal of Rice's schedule shows that we're 24-9 during weekend series vs. 7-6 in midweek games. UH is 23-10 on the weekends and 10-2 in mid-week games. Obviously there are a lot of ways to explain the data, but it also lends credence to the notion that playing Rice on the weekend might be a little different than playing Rice on a Tuesday/Wednesday.

But, toss out those 3 UH wins over Rice and we're 7-3 midweek compared to UH being 7-2.

I'm not sure why we should throw out the UH games for this anymore than we should throw out other games. But ok. 7-4 is a .636 winning percentage. 24-9 is .727. We win 9.1% less of our midweek games than weekend. The same numbers for UH (sans Rice) are .800 and .697. So they win 10.3% MORE of their midweek games than weekend games. Still a difference. Not sure if you can make anything of the data there, other than to say that this season, Rice has performed better on the weekends and UH has performed better in in midweek games.

(05-01-2014 11:22 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 10:35 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  But, toss out those 3 UH wins over Rice and we're 7-3 midweek compared to UH being 7-2.

Ahem-- we have only lost 2 games to UH this year, with one neutral site game remaining.

:) oh yeah I forgot just trying some reverse psychology since I predicted we'd win game 2 vs UH :)

Seriously though, a game is a game and unless it's a fall scrimmage then it counts in our record.
If its a conference game, or a rivalry series game (Silver Glove, or, really any In-state team we play more than once), then it counts "more".
And if (hypothetically) our depth has forced us to focus on conference moreso than the midweek rivalry series, then so be it. I'll still be extremely pleased if we win conference and head into postseason as a regional host.
And I agree with Mademen that we need that third UH game to solidify the resume for a national seed.
However in the big picture,the season is 50+ games, not 3, so I can see cases where a team might get the nod despite not winning a game head to head vs another nearby team in contention for a super host spot. And while I think conference is more important, I can't think of one single game that is more important to our super hosting resume than vs UH (with possible exception of a potential conf tourney final)

(05-02-2014 07:50 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 11:22 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 10:35 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  But, toss out those 3 UH wins over Rice and we're 7-3 midweek compared to UH being 7-2.

Ahem-- we have only lost 2 games to UH this year, with one neutral site game remaining.

:) oh yeah I forgot just trying some reverse psychology since I predicted we'd win game 2 vs UH :)

Seriously though, a game is a game and unless it's a fall scrimmage then it counts in our record.
If its a conference game, or a rivalry series game (Silver Glove, or, really any In-state team we play more than once), then it counts "more".
And if (hypothetically) our depth has forced us to focus on conference moreso than the midweek rivalry series, then so be it. I'll still be extremely pleased if we win conference and head into postseason as a regional host.
And I agree with Mademen that we need that third UH game to solidify the resume for a national seed.
However in the big picture,the season is 50+ games, not 3, so I can see cases where a team might get the nod despite not winning a game head to head vs another nearby team in contention for a super host spot. And while I think conference is more important, I can't think of one single game that is more important to our super hosting resume than vs UH (with possible exception of a potential conf tourney final)

Don't disagree, but it's still far less important than the conference championship...and with only one day's rest before the LaTech series commencement (Thursday - Saturday games prior to the conference tourney), I don't think The OG would change his mid-week philosophy or pitching rotation for that final UH game. Also, keep in mind, given it's a neutral site game, and both Rice and UH have Top 10 RPIs, neither team will lose much ground in the RPI standings based on the result of that game.

ESPN's Projection

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/...-breakdown


Corvallis Regional
No. 3 Oregon State
UNLV
Cal State Fullerton
Stony Brook

Houston Regional
Rice
Texas
UC Santa Barbara
Sam Houston State

Columbia Regional
No. 5 South Carolina
New Mexico
Clemson
College of Charleston

Fort Worth Regional
TCU
Houston
Dallas Baptist
Southeast Missouri State

(05-02-2014 08:42 AM)13thOwl Wrote:  ESPN's Projection

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/...-breakdown


Corvallis Regional
No. 3 Oregon State
UNLV
Cal State Fullerton
Stony Brook

Houston Regional
Rice
Texas
UC Santa Barbara
Sam Houston State

Columbia Regional
No. 5 South Carolina
New Mexico
Clemson
College of Charleston

Fort Worth Regional
TCU
Houston
Dallas Baptist
Southeast Missouri State

These are Jeremy's projections, and he does a good job in his writeup explaining why a national seed is such a long shot, even if we finish in the Top 5 in RPI. Any regional with SHS as a #4 seed is a killer for us. And while I would normally mind UT as a #2 seed, their pitching rotation sets up very well against us, as it means we would have to face LHP Peters again, and he virtually no-hit us at Minute Maid.

Hard to believe only one school from Conf USA.

(05-02-2014 08:46 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 08:42 AM)13thOwl Wrote:  ESPN's Projection

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/...-breakdown


Corvallis Regional
No. 3 Oregon State
UNLV
Cal State Fullerton
Stony Brook

Houston Regional
Rice
Texas
UC Santa Barbara
Sam Houston State

Columbia Regional
No. 5 South Carolina
New Mexico
Clemson
College of Charleston

Fort Worth Regional
TCU
Houston
Dallas Baptist
Southeast Missouri State

These are Jeremy's projections, and he does a good job in his writeup explaining why a national seed is such a long shot, even if we finish in the Top 5 in RPI. Any regional with SHS as a #4 seed is a killer for us. And while I would normally mind UT as a #2 seed, their pitching rotation sets up very well against us, as it means we would have to face LHP Peters again, and he virtually no-hit us at Minute Maid.

(05-02-2014 10:21 AM)OldOwl Wrote:  Hard to believe only one school from Conf USA.

(05-02-2014 08:46 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 08:42 AM)13thOwl Wrote:  ESPN's Projection

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/...-breakdown


Corvallis Regional
No. 3 Oregon State
UNLV
Cal State Fullerton
Stony Brook

Houston Regional
Rice
Texas
UC Santa Barbara
Sam Houston State

Columbia Regional
No. 5 South Carolina
New Mexico
Clemson
College of Charleston

Fort Worth Regional
TCU
Houston
Dallas Baptist
Southeast Missouri State

These are Jeremy's projections, and he does a good job in his writeup explaining why a national seed is such a long shot, even if we finish in the Top 5 in RPI. Any regional with SHS as a #4 seed is a killer for us. And while I would normally mind UT as a #2 seed, their pitching rotation sets up very well against us, as it means we would have to face LHP Peters again, and he virtually no-hit us at Minute Maid.

Good catch, looks like Old Dominion has some work left to do in order to make the field. The same goes for ECU.

(05-02-2014 10:21 AM)OldOwl Wrote:  Hard to believe only one school from Conf USA.

(05-02-2014 08:46 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 08:42 AM)13thOwl Wrote:  ESPN's Projection

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/...-breakdown


Corvallis Regional
No. 3 Oregon State
UNLV
Cal State Fullerton
Stony Brook

Houston Regional
Rice
Texas
UC Santa Barbara
Sam Houston State

Columbia Regional
No. 5 South Carolina
New Mexico
Clemson
College of Charleston

Fort Worth Regional
TCU
Houston
Dallas Baptist
Southeast Missouri State

These are Jeremy's projections, and he does a good job in his writeup explaining why a national seed is such a long shot, even if we finish in the Top 5 in RPI. Any regional with SHS as a #4 seed is a killer for us. And while I would normally mind UT as a #2 seed, their pitching rotation sets up very well against us, as it means we would have to face LHP Peters again, and he virtually no-hit us at Minute Maid.

I like our chances faces Peters a second time, especially after Augie's bunch cooled off in April. Sam is sam(except when they are Shane), Rice seemingly has to knock out a local team every year that plays well against them. And I agree Sam as a four seed is rough.